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Past Draft Grade retrospective


warfelg

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Coming off the 2021 draft, I thought it would be fun to look back from 2010-now at what snap reactions to our draft was:

2010:

Quote

1st Round
Maurkice Pouncey - C/G - Flordia
 -- Pouncey Bio, Audio and Transcripts

2nd Round
Jason Worilds - OLB - Virginia Tech 
 -- Worilds Bio, Audio and Transcripts

3rd Round
Emmanuel Sanders - WR - SMU
 -- Sanders Bio, Audio and Transcripts

4th Round
Thaddeus Gibson - OLB - Ohio State
 -- Gibson Bio, Audio and Transcripts

5th Round (1st selection)
Chris Scott - OT - Tennessee  
 -- Scott Bio, Audio and Transcripts

5th Round (2nd selection)
Crezdon Butler - CB - Clemson
 -- Butler Bio, Audio and Transcripts

5th Round (3rd selection)
Stevenson Sylvester - LB - Utah
 -- Sylvester Bio, Audio and Transcripts

6th Round (1st selection)
Jonathan Dwyer - RB - Georgia Tech
 -- Dwyer Bio, Audio and Transcripts

6th Round (2nd selection)
Antonio Brown - WR - Central Michigan
 -- Brown Bio, Audio and Transcripts

7th Round
Doug Worthington - DL - Ohio State
 -- Worthington Bio, Audio and Transcripts

Pittsburgh: There were phony rumors out there that Ben Roethlisberger was on the trading block, so the Steelers focused on shoring up the offensive line with Florida center Maurkice Pouncey, who was their target from the outset. Virgina Tech OLB Jason Worilds ideally suits the Steelers' 3-4 scheme as an edge rusher and may remind some of James Harrison. Former Ohio State standout Thaddeus Gibson is a great athlete who was only a one-year starter and he was something of tweener at OLB and defensive end. He's a project. SMU WR Emmanuel Sanders will try to fill Santonio Holmes' shoes. RB Johnathan Dwyer of Georgia Tech was considered a second-round pick, but fell to the sixth round because of a failed drug test for amphetamines for medical reasons at the Combine. Dwyer was off some teams' draft boards. Grade: B+

Retroactively this is an A++++

2011:

Quote

Pittsburgh Steelers: B

Draft picks: DL Cameron Heyward (first round), OT Marcus Gilbert (second round), CB Curtis Brown (third round), CB Cortez Allen (fourth round), OLB Chris Carter (fifth round), OL Keith Williams (sixth round), RB Baron Batch (seventh round).

Analysis: The Steelers did a nice job of drafting for value, which is usually the case with this team. The first three draftees have a chance to start as rookies.

This class gets an A for me.  Yes later picks didn't become great but Allen gave us depth as did Batch.  Heyward and Gilbert are/were studs.

2012:

Quote

Pittsburgh Steelers

25 OF 32

Draft Picks

Round 1: OG David DeCastro (Stanford)

Round 2: OT Mike Adams (Ohio State)

Round 3: LB Sean Spence (Miami, FL)

Round 4: DT Alameda Ta'amu (Washington)

Round 5: RB Chris Rainey (Florida)

Round 6: None

Round 7: WR Toney Clemons (Colorado), TE David Paulson (Oregon), CB Terrence Frederick (Texas A&M), OT Kelvin Beachum (SMU)


Grade: A+


Summary

For years people have complained that the Pittsburgh Steelers don't take drafting offensive linemen seriously enough. They changed that perception in 2012 by drafting two starters in the first two rounds, solidifying their offensive line with Maurkice Pouncey and Marcus Gilbert already in place.

Pittsburgh could look to go back to a run-first offense with these selections, but it went back to defense in Rounds 3 and 4 when it found a ball-hawking linebacker in Sean Spence and a huge nose tackle with great upside in Alameda Ta'amu.

Ho-hum...just another great draft for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

A draft where we take for need, get a good grade.  Meanwhile only 2 of these players turned out to be something.  Get used to hearing this.

2013:

Quote
Round (Pick) Name Position School
1 (17) Jones, J. OLB UGA
2 (48) Bell, L. RB MSU
3 (79) Wheaton, M. WR ORST
4 (111) Thomas, S. S SYR
4 (115) Jones, L. QB OKLA
5 (150) Hawthorne, T. CB ILL
6 (186) Brown, J. WR OKLA
6 (206) Williams, V. ILB FSU
7 (223) Williams, N. DT SAM

This draft class was a classic Pittsburgh Steelers crop:

— Jarvis Jones, a classic Steelers outside linebacker to replace the departed James Harrison.

— Le'Veon Bell, a big bruising power back with surprising agility and versatility.

— Markus Wheaton, a perfect replacement for the departed Mike Wallace.

— Landry Jones, a decent value and a likely replacement for the Methuselah of the NFL, backup quarterback Charlie Batch.

All in all, the Steelers not only got good players at positions of need with good value; they got a draft class that's a perfect expression of their ethos and identity.

GRADE: A-

This grade might be a bit strong.  JJ was a bust, Wheaton was JAG.  Bell really saved this draft, but again this was a situation where we draft for need and get a good grade.

2014:

Quote

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Pick: I love the pick of receiver Martavis Bryant in the fourth round. He is a big receiver who will help their passing game.

Questionable move: Third-round pick Dri Archer has speed, but how do they get him the football. Is he a slot receiver?

Third-day gem: Sixth-round defensive tackle Daniel McCullers is a big body with a lot of ability. He has that Steelers' tough-guy look about him.

Analysis: I liked what they did in the first two rounds, getting Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt to help the defense. That made a lot of sense. Archer is a bit risky, but they bounced back with the Bryant pick.

Grade: B

Whoah this should have been an A.

2015:

Quote

Round 1, Pick 22 (22): Bud Dupree, Kentucky OLB

Round 2, Pick 24 (56): Senquez Golson, Mississippi CB

Round 3, Pick 23 (87): Sammie Coates, Auburn WR

Round 4, Pick 22 (121): Doran Grant, Ohio State CB

Round 5, Pick 24 (160): Jesse James, Penn State TE

Round 6, Pick 23 (199): Leterrius Walton, Central Michigan DT

Round 6, Pick 36 (212) (compensatory selection): Anthony Chickillo, Louisville FS

Round 7, Pick 22 (239): Gerod Holliman, Louisville S

After last season's track-meet iteration of the Pittsburgh offense put up pinball numbers, the Steelers aren't just doubling down with Coates—they're adding freakish measurables to the other side of the roster.

Dupree projects to be an awesome pass-rusher based on his frame and speed. Hopefully, he can make up for the surprise retirement of Jason Worilds and the flameout of Jarvis Jones. Golson and Grant fill desperate needs on a Steelers secondary that was old enough to be getting AARP magazines delivered to the locker room.

Coates is an out-and-out burner who'll fit right in with the Steelers' 4x100 relay team, and James is a big fella who will get better. Walton and Chickillo have the bodies to eventually contribute on the defensive line.

Unless Holliman steps onto the field and makes Steelers fans forget about Troy Polamalu, general manager Kevin Colbert may rue waiting until the seventh round to address the safety position.

Grade: B

Looking back on this, the grade is about right.  Golson never got right, Coates was JAG, Grant was here for a hot second.  James, LT, and Chick all provided value later as depth.

2016:

Quote

Pittsburgh Steelers: B

First pick: Artie Burns, CB, Miami (No. 25)

Other notable picks: Sean Davis, DB, Maryland (58); Javon Hargrave, DT, South Carolina State (89); Travis Feeney, LB, Washington (220)

Their board may have fallen in lockstep with the best players they believed to be available, but it sure as heck looks like the Steelers drafted for need. Pittsburgh rumbled right through its holes at cornerback, safety, defensive tackle and offensive tackle before adding a couple of late linebackers. Look, GM Kevin Colbert took a couple shots here. Burns has size and speed, but he will have rough moments early in his career as he tries to clean up his technique. Davis is an outstanding athlete who can cover from the safety spot, but he too is very much a work in progress. OT Jerald Hawkins helps the depth up front, maybe not much more. In truth, the Feeney and Tyler Matakevich (246) selections could wind up being Colbert’s best of 2016—or at least Nos. 2 and 3 behind the impressive Hargrave. Both players have radars for the football and were a round or two into their value ranges. —CB

This just shows me how much draftnik graders just look at needs for the grade.  This draft is only saved from an F- because of Javon Hargrave.

2017:

Quote

Pittsburgh Steelers
Draft picks:T.J. Watt (No. 30 overall), JuJu Smith-Schuster (No. 62 overall), Cameron Sutton (No. 94 overall), James Conner (No. 105 overall), Joshua Dobbs (No. 135 overall), Brian Allen (No. 173 overall), Colin Holba (No. 213 overall), Keion Adams (No. 248 overall)
Day 1 grade: A
Day 2 grade: A-
Day 3 grade: A
Overall grade: A
The skinny: The fact that T.J. Watt was available for the Steelers was amazing. He's a war daddy, and Pittsburgh can play him inside or outside for years. This was one of those picks where everyone will wonder in four years how Watt dropped this far. Many Steelers fans told me the team wouldn't take a receiver early; well, Kevin Colbert thought differently. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a very strong receiver who will be the physical pass-catcher the team needs. They could have used a pick on defense again, however, and found another receiver late in the draft. Colbert did get a corner/safety in Cameron Sutton who should become a starter down the line.

Yup yup yup, and this might be even underrating the grade. 4 starters, 3 pro-bowlers with on being All-NFL.

2018:

Quote

Draft picks: Virginia Tech S Terrell Edmunds (No. 28 overall), Oklahoma State WR James Washington (No. 60 overall), Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph (No. 76 overall), Western Michigan OT Chukwuma Okorafor (No. 92 overall), Penn State S Marcus Allen (No. 148 overall), N.C. State RB Jaylen Samuels (No. 165 overall), Alabama DT Joshua Frazier (No. 246 overall).
Day 1 grade: B+
Day 2 grade: B+
Day 3 grade: A
Overall grade: B+
The skinny: The Steelers went safety, as expected, but picked Edmunds, the brother of fellow first-round pick Tremaine, instead of Stanford's Justin Reid and others. This was a surprise pick to most, and probably a round early -- but given his strength and NFL bloodlines (father, Ferrell, played tight end in the league), but maybe it shouldn't have been. He'll be a welcomed addition to the team, either way. Trading Martavis Bryant to Oakland for a third-round pick meant they needed to find another big-play receiver. Washington isn't tall or an elite speedster, but his super-long arms and ability to win the jump ball make him a solid find late in the second round. He was paired with his former teammate, Rudolph, in the third round. They could make for an interesting duo in a couple of years. Rudolph was a good third-round value. Okorafor could become a starter, but needs to work harder and faster on the field or he'll be out of the league fast. Allen adds another tough-minded safety to the Steelers' defensive back trove, though I believe he could be used in a linebacker-type role to take advantage of his toughness and agility. Samuels fits the Steelers' usage of fullback/H-backs quite well, and will add another wrinkle to their offense. Frazier is a perfect fit for a team in need of a hardworking nose tackle.

Not too sure here, Edmunds took time to develop, Washington hasn't been worth a 2nd, Mason hasn't been worth a 3rd.  Okorafor, Allen, and Samuels have been good value picks at that point.  I think the grade here is about right.

2019:

Quote

Pittsburgh Steelers
Draft picks: Michigan LB Devin Bush (No. 10 overall); Toledo WR Diontae Johnson (No. 66); Michigan State CB Justin Layne (No. 83); Kentucky RB Benny Snell (No. 122); Michigan TE Zach Gentry (No. 141); Northern Illinois Edge Sutton Smith (No. 175); Alabama DT Isaiah Buggs (No. 192); Akron LB Ulysees Gilbert (No. 207); Maryland OT Derwin Gray (No. 219)
Day 1 grade: A-
Day 2 grade: A-
Day 3 grade: B
Overall grade: A-
Draft analysis: I was so happy to see two inside linebackers go in the top 10 picks. Bush is worthy of that investment, as he moves like a safety and pounds ball-carriers with impunity. The picks they parted with to move up in the deal with the Broncos -- Pittsburgh sent them a 2019 second-round pick (No. 52) and 2020 third-rounder -- isn't a ridiculous price to pay, but the Steelers could have found a much-needed corner had they stayed at No. 20 and a starting inside 'backer in the second round (or later).

Another year where the grades feel about right.

 

TL;DR -

There's a consensus pattern, that whenever we draft for needs or perceived needs, we get good grades but with hindsight the draft turns out to be somewhat bad.  When we draft based on the board and the draftniks "hate" the draft and give it a lower grade it turns out to be one of the better drafts for this team.

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You do not know about a draft class for at least 2 full seasons.  Even Dupree was considered a bust after 3 seasons.  Shazier was considered a bust after 2 seasons.  2 starters and 3 contributors is an outstanding draft class.  Especially when you are playing a franchise QB.  Teams can afford to miss a draft when not playing the QB 1/4 of your cap.  Once you can't sign as many or good FA, then the draft is huge.

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