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How good will Kyle Trask be?


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      Trask is a distant fifth (including QBR) in this class but may be the perfect backup QB for Tampa Bay.  Accuracy (20th in completion rate) is an issue but he is excellent deep (6th in success, 4th in yardage, 9th in Yards per Attempt).  He's the slowest (4.98s) runner of the top 11 rookie QBs but is average at evading pressure (16.9%) and unloading time (2.69s).  He can do some serious damage behind the Bucs O-Line and with those WRs.

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Would love to do a full breakdown video but don't have the time. I watched every game from 2020 at least once though, and a couple 2019 games, and here are some more takeaways - 

- Improvement from 2019 (first games as a starter since freshman year in HS!) to 2020 is vast. You see some quality traits in 2019, but in 2020 his pocket presence, accuracy, and decision making are all dramatically improved. Good sign for more improvement coming with more experience. 

- I believe Arians offense is a perfect fit for him and pretty similar to Mullen's actually. Pushed the ball downfield more than I expected. 

- Had two first-round targets in Pitts and Toney that made life easier, but very little semblance of a running game in 2020, and a below average offensive line. Spread the ball around pretty well. Only about 40% of his yard production and 51% of his TD production went to his first round targets.. compare that to Mac Jones (who had a great OL and running game too) who had 64% of his yard production and 75% of his TD production go to first round targets, and thats not even including Metchie who's projected as a first round pick next year. If you look at the numbers for Fields and Lawrence too you'll see similar numbers to Mac for production going to players projected as Day 1 & 2 prospects. 

- His 'immobility' is overstated. He's not going to be Aaron Rodgers, but he is shifty in the pocket (kind of like another QB we've come to love) and was good at side-stepping and avoiding pressures. Also ran for first downs and TDs what I felt like was every game I watched. 

- He's able to throw on the run while maintaining good accuracy downfield. Seen quite a few throws of 30-40 air yards while out side of the pocket and/or scrambling.

- He still has a ways to go with decision making. You see a couple bad throws into coverage or straight to a defender late in the season against better competition. Overall though he makes good reads and doesn't overly force into coverages, I think he just needs more experience learning and reading defenses. 

- Arm strength is NFL caliber. The most I've seen from him is 50-55 air yards in games, and I think it was about the same at his pro day, but again I could see that improving with some better mechanics/footwork with NFL coaching. The foundation is there though and I've seen him make every throw. Makes a ton of throws in the 30-40 yard range and that is the sweet spot for what you see in a vertical offense. There's only a handful of plays last year where you see Brady air it out over 60 yards, if you go look back at the highlights of last year you'll see almost all of Brady's deep passes landed in the 40-55 yard range. 

- Goes through progressions and makes plays on 2nd and 3rd reads, and I think this is one of his strengths. The Bucs have touched on this as well, praising his processing ability, and it really shines through tape when you watch a lot of it. I kept rewinding plays watching his eyes and it might have been the most impressive things i've seen from him. He'll move off of his first target within a second or two if he doesn't like what he sees with the defense, and will quickly make the next read and deliver to receivers in stride or just coming out of their breaks.

- Throws with great touch and accuracy on deeper passes. He doesn't seem to ever send 'lasers' on any type of pass, it could be a lack of arm strength to do it right now, it could be him throwing with touch on every pass, I don't see it as an issue though. He consistently delivers passes downfield to receivers in tight windows and in between double coverage. Shows nice touch on fades and wheel routes too, a staple of Mullen's offense. 

It would not surprise me to see him be another Mike Glennon, a solid backup that sticks around for a decade but has limitations, but really after watching tape I'm convinced he's got the intangibles and does the little things a QB does to make him special. I wouldn't be surprised either to see him spend a lot of his career as a top 10 QB. After watching him I believe he can be a QB that you can be a contender with, and he can be one of those Russ Wilson/Dak Presoctt mid round picks that have people looking back like 'how did we miss him?'. 

Maybe I'm a little too high on him, maybe a bit too optimistic, maybe a little too much homerism already, just my takes for now until he or someone else shows me otherwise. 

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