ET80 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Worth following... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAtexansFAN_99 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 4:45 PM, LORK88 said: I'll say this: When Mills was selected by the Texans, I didn't mind it because he at least had the highest ceilings out of Mond, Mills, and Trask. You know what you're getting with Mond as someone who started a ton of games in college whereas Mills is a bit of an unknown. Thankfully, he's a former 5 star recruit so his pedigree shows he has the potential to punch about his draft slot. However, I feel his ceiling is Kirk Cousins; a borderline top 10/top 15 QB. I can't see him turning into a top 5 QB like Burrow/Allen/Mahomes; that's a massive pipe dream. I'll say, I agree to an extent. He'll never be Josh Allen, but that doesn't mean we couldn't beat the Bills with Davis Mills at QB. Tom Brady is less talented than Josh Allen, so was Peyton Manning, so was Kurt Warner, and Joe Montana, the list goes on. I'm not saying Mills IS going to be that good. I don't know, but my main point is that you don't know either. We'll see. He can do all the things. He can make all the throws. He can actually move around pretty well, especially in the pocket. He's smart, he's shown he can learn from his mistakes.. who knows how good he could get if he continues to learn, and efficiently incorporate that new information? I could see Mills topping out in the Kirk Cousins range. I could also see topping out in the Tom Savage range. BUT! I also see Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers in there.. I wouldn't give him forever to figure it out. Frankly, I'd have his replacement on deck, and I'd give him maybe 4 guaranteed starts at the beginning of the season, and then if it was looking more Savage than Brady I'd bench him. Honestly though, I expect him to come out the gates guns blazing. If two weeks into 2023 we're 2-0, and the Texans just blew out two decent teams largely in part due to Davis Mills surgically picking defenses apart, I imagine everyone will be singing a different tune, right? Let's see what he does with a full offseason, with a significantly improved roster (I'm sure it will be, especially the running game!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LORK88 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: I'll say, I agree to an extent. He'll never be Josh Allen, but that doesn't mean we couldn't beat the Bills with Davis Mills at QB. Tom Brady is less talented than Josh Allen, so was Peyton Manning, so was Kurt Warner, and Joe Montana, the list goes on. I'm not saying Mills IS going to be that good. I don't know, but my main point is that you don't know either. We'll see. He can do all the things. He can make all the throws. He can actually move around pretty well, especially in the pocket. He's smart, he's shown he can learn from his mistakes.. who knows how good he could get if he continues to learn, and efficiently incorporate that new information? I could see Mills topping out in the Kirk Cousins range. I could also see topping out in the Tom Savage range. BUT! I also see Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers in there.. I wouldn't give him forever to figure it out. Frankly, I'd have his replacement on deck, and I'd give him maybe 4 guaranteed starts at the beginning of the season, and then if it was looking more Savage than Brady I'd bench him. Honestly though, I expect him to come out the gates guns blazing. If two weeks into 2023 we're 2-0, and the Texans just blew out two decent teams largely in part due to Davis Mills surgically picking defenses apart, I imagine everyone will be singing a different tune, right? Let's see what he does with a full offseason, with a significantly improved roster (I'm sure it will be, especially the running game!). Below are the QBs the past 10 years drafted day 2. Every QB you mentioned above was taken round 1. Mills will not be the second-coming of anyone listed above. That's not to say we can't win with him, but I think it's fair to taper expectations. If we're going to win with Mills, it's going to require building a running game and solid defense around him, very similar to what the 49ers have done. 2020: Jalen Hurts 2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier 2018: Mason Rudolph 2017: Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard 2016: Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler 2015: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion 2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo 2013: Geno Smith, Mike Glennon 2012: Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles 2011: Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAtexansFAN_99 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, LORK88 said: Every QB you mentioned above was taken round 1. Firstly, Mills would very likely have been a first round pick this year. Secondly, there are more than enough counterexamples of this, and Joe Montana and Tom Brady were famously not first round picks, or second round picks.. but, yea I mentioned a few guys who went later on.. Kurt Warner also not a first round pick. Joe Burrow isn't like, super athletic or anything. Mills could do what Burrow does. But yea, we need to put a team around him. Brady couldn't win in NE toward the end without a team around him, I don't know why everyone expects Mills to have been able to do any better than he did given the fact that his first throw every series was generally on 2nd & 12 or so Edited February 4, 2022 by PAtexansFAN_99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: Firstly, Mills would very likely have been a first round pick this year. I don't like this argument - because we don't know what Mills would have done in college. This time last year, Spencer Rattler was supposed to be the #1 pick in the draft this year - that failed, and Rattler is now about to start his South Carolina career up. 1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: Secondly, there are more than enough counterexamples of this, and Joe Montana and Tom Brady were famously not first round picks, or second round picks.. but, yea I mentioned a few guys who went later on.. Kurt Warner also not a first round pick. It's stuff like this that makes me believe Texans fans deserve all the misery they get. Can we not put the cart before the horse on this one? I mean, Gardner Minshew had just as good a rookie season as Mills did, did that work out for Jacksonville? Davis Mills had a good season for a rookie (not even a great season, just slightly above average). Can we see year two before we think about Brady, Montana, Warner and other HoF QBs? Sure, those guys exist. You want to know who else exists? Gio Carmazzi, Spergon Wynn, Rohan Davey, Ken Dorsey, Zach Mettenberger, AJ Feeley, Trent Edwards, Jared Zabransky, Kevin Kolb Matt Flynn, Tom Savage and a countless number of guys who looked good for a bit, and completely vanished afterwards. 13 or so games is good enough to get you another season, nothing more. Let's put the anointing oil back in the closet for now. Comparing Mills (even in the slightest way) to THREE different Hall of Fame QBs is begging to be disappointed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LORK88 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: Firstly, Mills would very likely have been a first round pick this year. Secondly, there are more than enough counterexamples of this, and Joe Montana and Tom Brady were famously not first round picks, or second round picks.. but, yea I mentioned a few guys who went later on.. Kurt Warner also not a first round pick. Joe Burrow isn't like, super athletic or anything. Mills could do what Burrow does. But yea, we need to put a team around him. Brady couldn't win in NE toward the end without a team around him, I don't know why everyone expects Mills to have been able to do any better than he did given the fact that his first throw every series was generally on 2nd & 12 or so That's tough to say because we don't know for sure, especially dependent on what kind of season he would've had at Stanford. They were this year so who knows if he would've helped or suffered tremendously. It's definitely possible he would be a 1st rounder, but far from a guarantee. While there are plenty of counter-points, the difference is the success rate with 1st round QBs vs after round 1 is vastly different. That's why I posted every day 2 QB for the past 10 years. Yes you can find some gems like Carr and Russell, but they're few and far between. If you look at The Athletic's QB tiers, 11 of 14 are from round 1. Only Brady, Wilson, and Prescott are the non-first rounders. Even their tier 3 (ranks 15-23) has more 1st rounders (Roethlisberger, Mayfield, Goff, Wentz, Daniel Jones) than it does non-first rounders (Carr, Cousins, Garoppolo, Fitzpatrick). Again, Mills could end up being Schaub, Cousins, Savage, or Osweiller. However, the odds that he becomes a tier tier 3 QB like Garappolo/Cousins is vastly higher than the odds of him becoming tier 1 like Allen/Mahomes. I would love to be wrong on this, but I can't see him being a top 5 QB. Edited February 4, 2022 by LORK88 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amazingandre Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, ET80 said: I don't like this argument - because we don't know what Mills would have done in college. This time last year, Spencer Rattler was supposed to be the #1 pick in the draft this year - that failed, and Rattler is now about to start his South Carolina career up. It's stuff like this that makes me believe Texans fans deserve all the misery they get. Can we not put the cart before the horse on this one? I mean, Gardner Minshew had just as good a rookie season as Mills did, did that work out for Jacksonville? Davis Mills had a good season for a rookie (not even a great season, just slightly above average). Can we see year two before we think about Brady, Montana, Warner and other HoF QBs? Sure, those guys exist. You want to know who else exists? Gio Carmazzi, Spergon Wynn, Rohan Davey, Ken Dorsey, Zach Mettenberger, AJ Feeley, Trent Edwards, Jared Zabransky, Kevin Kolb Matt Flynn, Tom Savage and a countless number of guys who looked good for a bit, and completely vanished afterwards. 13 or so games is good enough to get you another season, nothing more. Let's put the anointing oil back in the closet for now. Comparing Mills (even in the slightest way) to THREE different Hall of Fame QBs is begging to be disappointed. Thats not fair. You named people and he named people, neither of you made direct comparisons. There is a path where he can be great and where he will fail based on previous QBs drafted in round 2. The bottom line is, everyone agrees Mills deserves his shot as the guy moving forward. How it turns out is anybodies guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 34 minutes ago, amazingandre said: Thats not fair. You named people and he named people, neither of you made direct comparisons. Um... 6 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: I could see Mills topping out in the Kirk Cousins range. I could also see topping out in the Tom Savage range. BUT! I also see Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers in there. 5 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: Secondly, there are more than enough counterexamples of this, and Joe Montana and Tom Brady were famously not first round picks, or second round picks.. but, yea I mentioned a few guys who went later on.. Kurt Warner also not a first round pick. 5 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: Joe Burrow isn't like, super athletic or anything. Mills could do what Burrow does. Those are pretty direct, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 38 minutes ago, amazingandre said: The bottom line is, everyone agrees Mills deserves his shot as the guy moving forward. How it turns out is anybodies guess. I agree with this, but people (not just you @PAtexansFAN_99 - don't think I'm busting you up, this is something I complained about back in December) are trying too hard to extrapolate what Mills can do. If he turns into that guy, I'll be shocked - because guys like Brady, Warner, Montana don't come up that often. That's what makes them special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAtexansFAN_99 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 22 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: I'm not saying Mills IS going to be that good. I don't know, but my main point is that you don't know either. We'll see. He can do all the things. He can make all the throws. He can actually move around pretty well, especially in the pocket. He's smart, he's shown he can learn from his mistakes.. who knows how good he could get if he continues to learn, and efficiently incorporate that new information? I could see Mills topping out in the Kirk Cousins range. I could also see topping out in the Tom Savage range. BUT! I also see Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers in there.. ET, I acknowledged that he might not be anything. I think figuring out a backup plan for Mills is among our top priorities this offseason. I'm just saying, he's got the potential to be great in my opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said: ET, I acknowledged that he might not be anything. I think figuring out a backup plan for Mills is among our top priorities this offseason. I'm just saying, he's got the potential to be great in my opinion. And perhaps I'm conflating the rubbish I'm seeing on social media to your take - my bad if so. Reading Facebook/Twitter, there are people who already think he's great - when in reality, he's closer to below average. I understand the logic behind choosing a guy like Mills over say, a Jimmy Garropolo or a Derek Carr - this team isn't competing yet, this team doesn't want to invest much in a QB right now - but in a vacuum with nothing else other than ability to rely on, people choosing Mills over Garropolo/Carr is based on nothing tangible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I feel for Mills. Dude was a 3rd round pick who got forced to play before he was ready, then he got benched by a guy who wasn’t really any better. Then he showed tremendous upside, only to be overhyped and set up for failure. then his coaching staff was removed from him and he’s gonna have to learn a new system and everything. I am really hoping he turns into something great but the guy has not been set up for success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAtexansFAN_99 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: I feel for Mills. Dude was a 3rd round pick who got forced to play before he was ready, then he got benched by a guy who wasn’t really any better. Then he showed tremendous upside, only to be overhyped and set up for failure. then his coaching staff was removed from him and he’s gonna have to learn a new system and everything. I am really hoping he turns into something great but the guy has not been set up for success. A lot can change in one offseason. In all likelihood whatever offensive system we switch to with be better. I can't imagine rolling out a weaker offensive skill group than we did last season (especially toward the beginning of the season before we realized that Burkhead should have been starting..... Burkhead). Literally we had one game when we ran the ball somewhat decently and Mills lit up the Chargers. I think, if they build the 2022 team correctly, Mills' job should be easier than it was his rookie year. You want to talk set up for failure? 2021 was the most set up to fail offense I've ever seen, and he had to start as a rookie having not played many college games. If he could pilot the 2021 offense for as many games as he did, and have us still feel good about his potential, I'm not overly concerned about us "setting him up to fail". That was rock bottom. Seriously.. I don't think anyone gives him enough credit for doing what he did with who he had. Honestly, I'm not sure there are many QBs who would've succeeded on that roster last year.. Like, I'm not sure Mahomes could've, or like Herbert, or a lot of those guys all probably would've looked just as bad if not worse as the Texans 2021 starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 If we keep Tunsil we need to trade down and take a WR. We need that true number 1 guy. We need a day 2 running back and a starting guard. I wouldn’t trade Tunsil unless we can get a 1st round pick for him. we have to get Watson traded just so we have cap breathing room this season. Then we don’t have to trade Tunsil. We should try and resign cooks and lower his cap hit moving forward. when you are trying to decide whether a 2nd year guy is a franchise QB, you’ve got to go all in on that side of the ball. If we trade Tunsil, tackle is the pick at number 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said: when you are trying to decide whether a 2nd year guy is a franchise QB, you’ve got to go all in on that side of the ball. If we trade Tunsil, tackle is the pick at number 3 I agree with what you’re saying overall - but if Evan Neal is gone by 1.3, I’d have significant heartburn picking Ikem Ekwonu at that spot. 7-10 is a doable spot for him, IMO Someone hopefully would want to trade up to get Thibs, and that’ll create some extra capital while dropping into the Ikem range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.