Best Offseason

[Soko]

On 5/5/2021 at 1:36 PM, HolmesPriest said:

We have everything needed to blast teams with that ground and pound, it just a matter of will they actually do it.

[Awsi Dooger]

On 5/8/2021 at 10:13 PM, Mr Raider said:

If I am honest, the Dolphins and Bills are 2 teams I love what they have done and love their future outlook because of their talent and my belief in the guys they have running the show. I think its a dogfight between them for the division this year and for the immediate future. And my confidence in those 2 teams combined with my questions in regards to the Jets and the moves they have made make me have even more pause over those question marks. It's going to be really tough to rebuild a team that has struggled so long, with new, unproven guys at the top, desperately in need of talent when you play in a division with 2 teams that have among the brightest long term potential of any teams in the AFC.

The Bills and Dolphins were on the opposite end of legitimacy. Buffalo was second in the league in YPPA Differential while Miami was near the bottom, with an awful number of -.7. That stat is the relationship between pass offense and pass defense. Not much else matters these days in the NFL. Tua needs to boost his his physique dramatically to look like a physical match to the league. That was the issue last year. He looked small and non threatening. Maybe all it requires is one year further removed from the injury, and a full offseason program, but I don't know how anybody could watch the Buffalo/Miami finale last season without being struck by Allen as a big mobile guy dictating to the defense while Tua was a small irrelevant guy often engulfed by the defense. I don't see how all of that goes away.

Also, Miami had a bully pass defense. Some teams were overwhelmed by the front seven and all the varied looks, like Goff and the Rams. But teams that could hang in there had tons of success. Miami was last in the league in defensive yards per completion, allowing a ridiculously high number. Xavien Howard bailed them out with interceptions. Otherwise it would have been more well known how vulnerable the pass defense was. Byron Jones had a horrendous year in yards per completion and yards per target. But lots of that was weakness on early downs. Miami gets no pass rush from standard fronts. Raekwon Davis is great at pushing the pile otherwise you don't have to worry about him threatening the quarterback. That's why they needed a versatile rangy swing guy like Adam Butler and now a quick clever outside guy like Phillips. 

I expect the Dolphins to regress in 2021. When you exceed expectations in 2019 and then dramatically in 2020, they key stats need to line up with legitimacy. They do not. Best thing that team has going for them is the head coach. 

http://mule.he.net/~budsport/pub/killer.php

[Folesadelphia]

On 5/5/2021 at 1:37 PM, onejayhawk said:

You aren't the only one. Have you taken a look at what the Eagles gave up to get Smith. It was more than the Bears gave up to get Fields. 

J

What are you talking about? I'd like to hear how the Eagles have up more to get Smith than the Bears did to move up for Fields. Care to explain your reasoning? 

[SalvadorsDeli]

I like what the Giants have done. I'm not a believer in Danny Dimes, but it seems reasonable to give him one more prove-it year, and the way they've gone about it means he has no excuses if he can't deliver. The extra 1st rounder will also come in handy if they need to move up for a QB next year. 

[indifference]

G men will regret passing on Fields 

Edited May 10, 2021 by indifference

[onejayhawk]

20 minutes ago, Folesadelphia said:

What are you talking about? I'd like to hear how the Eagles have up more to get Smith than the Bears did to move up for Fields. Care to explain your reasoning? 

That's purely by book value of the trades, book meaning a trade chart like the one below. The Eagles gave up 70 points over book and the Bears gave up 69 over book. 

Spoiler

 

[MagicMT]

On 5/8/2021 at 9:40 PM, Mr Raider said:

I like Mims and his potential, I even think he can become a low end #1 WR or rock solid #2. But outside of him, the 2 guys on the OL, and some other role players, nobody on the offense screams elite player, sky high potential, etc. 

 

I agree with most of what you said in that post but I think you're underselling the Jets WR group for 2021. 
They added Corey Davis & Keenan Cole from FA + Elijah Moore in the 2nd round plus they have J. Crowder and Mims already on the roster. 
While it's not a top 5 group in the NFL it's still a good situation WR-wise for a rookie QB. 
But well, let's not talk about the RB room and especially not the TE room because you're right that there isn't someone with a lot of potential from that group (unless you really love M. Carter from NC). 

Edited May 10, 2021 by MagicMT

[Soko]

1 hour ago, onejayhawk said:

That's purely by book value of the trades, book meaning a trade chart like the one below. The Eagles gave up 70 points over book and the Bears gave up 69 over book. 

  Hide contents

 

Might be missing something since I’m looking through my phone. Are future firsts listed in that table? 

Never really cared or believed in value charts like this - any given pick isn’t worth the same thing every year, it depends on the draft class - but I’m curious how that conclusion can be made. 

I’d much rather have 20 overall, 164, a future 4th, and a future 1st, than I would 12th overall and 84 overall.

[onejayhawk]

12 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Might be missing something since I’m looking through my phone. Are future firsts listed in that table? 

Never really cared or believed in value charts like this - any given pick isn’t worth the same thing every year, it depends on the draft class - but I’m curious how that conclusion can be made. 

I’d much rather have 20 overall, 164, a future 4th, and a future 1st, than I would 12th overall and 84 overall.

Future picks are evaluated a round lower per year and in the middle of the round. On that list, a 2022 first round pick is worth the same as round 2, pick 17, ie 410 points.

Don't say no one care about trade charts, because GMs use them all the time. They are very useful when neither team is leveraged about a deal  and it's simply a matter of determining a fair price.

Take, for example, the Orlando Brown trade. The Chiefs felt their first round pick was too much to ask and the Ravens thought their second was not enough. So they negotiated a value between 10 and 15 picks into the 2nd round, and worked from there, using several charts. 

I agree that I would rather have the Giants haul, but mostly because I think 2022 will be a better draft pool than 2021. Also, there is something to be said for two extra picks, other things being equal. Still, any way you evaluate the deals, the premium the Eagles paid and the premium the Bears paid are very close. 

J

Edited May 10, 2021 by onejayhawk

[Soko]

16 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Future picks are evaluated a round lower per year and in the middle of the round. On that list, a 2022 first round pick is worth the same as round 2, pick 17, ie 410 points.

I’d have recommended all teams to trade their 7ths for 2027 1sts! 

16 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Don't say no one care about trade charts, because GMs use them all the time. They are very useful when neither team is leveraged about a deal  and it's simply a matter of determining a fair price.

I didn’t say no one cares about them, I said that I don’t care for them much. Pick 3 this year for example, had substantially different value than Pick 3 in say, 2019 (Quinnen Williams). 

If you’re going to use it in a vacuum, I guess there’s merit to an extent. But looking at what the Bears did to get Fields and what the Eagles did to get Smith, isn’t a vacuum situation. 

16 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

Take, for example, the Orlando Brown trade. The Chiefs felt their first round pick was too much to ask and the Ravens thought their second was not enough. So they negotiated a value between 10 and 15 picks into the 2nd round, and worked from there, using several charts. 

There’s proof of this?

[onejayhawk]

2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’d have recommended all teams to trade their 7ths for 2027 1sts! 

I didn’t say no one cares about them, I said that I don’t care for them much. Pick 3 this year for example, had substantially different value than Pick 3 in say, 2019 (Quinnen Williams). 

If you’re going to use it in a vacuum, I guess there’s merit to an extent. But looking at what the Bears did to get Fields and what the Eagles did to get Smith, isn’t a vacuum situation. 

There’s proof of this?

I would not call it proof, but that is what the Chiefs side is saying.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2021/4/26/22403492/how-the-chiefs-and-ravens-came-to-agree-on-the-orlando-brown-trade

J

[Folesadelphia]

1 hour ago, onejayhawk said:

That's purely by book value of the trades, book meaning a trade chart like the one below. The Eagles gave up 70 points over book and the Bears gave up 69 over book. 

  Hide contents

 

I see what you mean now. The Eagles have up more value over what the expected value was for their trade. That makes sense, I thought you were saying the eagles traded more than a first round pick a third and a fourth or whatever the Giants got. I get ya now.

[Soko]

17 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

I would not call it proof, but that is what the Chiefs side is saying.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2021/4/26/22403492/how-the-chiefs-and-ravens-came-to-agree-on-the-orlando-brown-trade

J

It’s substantiated, a report with a name on it is something. Your point stands.

The charts go out the window when you’re on the clock, though (or essentially on the clock, like trading up for Pick 3 this year). 

[onejayhawk]

24 minutes ago, Folesadelphia said:

I see what you mean now. The Eagles have up more value over what the expected value was for their trade. That makes sense, I thought you were saying the eagles traded more than a first round pick a third and a fourth or whatever the Giants got. I get ya now.

Exactly. In an even transaction, the Eagles would get back a 4th round pick as change. 

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

It’s substantiated, a report with a name on it is something. Your point stands.

The charts go out the window when you’re on the clock, though (or essentially on the clock, like trading up for Pick 3 this year). 

Good distinction. I used to judge HS debate, so proof is an elusive thing. 

J 

[Dr A W Niloc]

1. New England ended free agency with only two holes left, which they addressed with their first two picks.  They've gone from a playoff aspirant to a Super Bowl favorite.

2. The Jets gathered up Carl Lewis, Corey Davis, and others in free agency before having an almost perfect draft.  They may have fought their way out of the cellar in football's toughest division.  

3. Chargers replaced most of their O-Line to great effect.

Honorable Mentions:  Arizona, NYGs, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and Baltimore.