2022 NFL Draft Thread

[ronjon1990]

45 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I would like Allen Robinson and Gallup. I think those two are (1) likely to not be re-signed, and (2) relatively cheap.

Robinson and Gallup would be fantastic. 

I highly doubt we land Adams so I don't even list him. 

Any 2 (1 from each group) of (order of preference, if available):

Allen Robinson, Allen Lazard, JuJu Smith-Schuster

And

Michael Gallup, MVS, Brandin Cooks (I think he comes available), Cedrick Wilson

These would be my targets. At least one big bodied guy and one field stretching guy and we'd be cooking. 

 

 

[Darbsk]

On 10/30/2021 at 2:52 AM, Mr Raider said:

My 2nd point would be this, I believe fans of all teams and the media as a whole completely overestimates the quality and contributions of 3rd and 4th round selection. The majority of talking heads and fans say things generally along the lines of first round picks should be immediate starters and pro bowl caliber or better players, 2nd round selections should be day one starters and long term starting quality caliber players if not better, 3rd round selections should be significant depth pieces immediately with the ability to start right away depending on the situation or grow into that long term. Kind of similar with 4th round selections. And 5th-7th round selections are special teams, long term development, practice squad type lottery tickets. 

However, the success rate for the NFL as a whole simply does not support that general outline for 2nd or 3rd round selections. Not even for the cream of the crop of drafting front offices. Lets explore it a little further. We'll start with 2018 since we will have had at least 2 full seasons worth of play to get a sense for the talent. Full disclosure though, 2019 had a very very good third round in comparison to some other years. Just to make it clear I am not trying to frame the narrative a certain way. 

2018 - The best players in the third round to come out this year were Justin Reid, Fred Warner, Sam Hubbard, Michael Gallup, Orlando Brown, and Mark Andrews. Obviously some very good players in that group. Fred Warner is an all pro caliber guy. Brown, Reid, and Andrews have played for stretches at a pro bowl caliber level. Gallup is perhaps the best #3 WR in the NFL and good enough to be a quality #2 on most rosters. And Hubbard had like 14 sacks through 2 seasons but has since failed to do a whole lot. Not too bad right? Sure. Brandon Parker was our 3rd round selection that year. And while we all say how poorly he has played for most of his career, he has still been a swing tackle for us that has started 22 games in 4 seasons. When you compare that to the rest of the NFLs third round selections that year, you find that Parker level players (or worse) make up the vast majority of the third round picks this year and every other season. Guys like Chad Thomas has started 8 games for the Browns, Royce Freeman started 8 games for the Browns and wasn't very good when he wasn't starting either, Nathan Shepherd started 8 games for the Jets and racked up 4.5 sacks in that time frame, Malik Jefferson started zero games and offered the team that drafted him 10 tackles in the one season he lasted in Cincy. The list goes on and on from this year with similar caliber players except for the quality players I mentioned. There are a few others that have been Brandon Parker levels of depth with less than great play but have lasted for whatever reason. 

2017 - You have Larry Ogunjobi, Kamara, Cupp, Godwin, Kareem Hunt, Fabian Moreau, Shaquill Griffin, John Johnson, Kenny Golladay, Jonnu Smith, Trey Hendrickson, and James Conner. Those are the mix of all pro or regular pro bowl players and long term starters from the third round this year. Obviously some very good players. However you see countless guys like Montavious Adams (the Packers third round selection) that appeared in 45 games, with 2 starts, 1.5 sacks in 4 seasons, and averaged 10 combined tackles per season. Guys like Derek Rivers for the Patriots who played 2 seasons for the team, playing about 18 percent of the defensive snaps in those 2 seasons, played about 5 percent of the special teams reps, and appeared in 13 games total for the Patriots and gave them 2.5 sacks and 6 total tackles during his time in New England. Or Cordea Tankersley for Miami. He started 11 games as a rookie (and had a passer rating allowed over 100) playing 88 percent of the defensive snaps. He followed it up with 6 more appearances in 2018 where he played 7 percent of the defensive snaps and 50 percent of the ST snaps. That was his last season in Miami. You can go down through almost every other pick besides the 13 guys I singled out and see very similar levels of games played, starts, production, and how long they stayed on the team as these examples I have given. 

2016 - You have Kevin Byard, our own Carl Nassib, Kenyan Drake, and Yannick, Daryl Worley, Joe Thuney, Austin Hooper, Kendall Fuller, Javon Hargrave, Jacoby Brissett, and Justin Simmons as the stand outs of the draft class. Byard, Thuney, Simmons, and Fuller have been pro bowl or all pro caliber players throughout their careers. Hooper had one super productive year. Brissett has started a decent amount but hasn't exactly been great. But he is a really successful 3rd round selection if you base it on the players selected there most years. For every one of those types of players you have an abundance of guys like Adolphus Washington who gave Buffalo starts, 31 games played, 3.5 sacks, and like 60 tackles while playing around 35 percent of the defensive snaps for the Bills in 2 seasons before moving on from the team. Or Brandon Williams who gave Arizona 45 games played, 3 starts, 5 pass defenses, and 38 tackles during his time there. While playing 27 percent of the defensive snaps his rookie season, 0 year two, and 8% in year three before leaving the team that off season. How about Nick Vannett for the Seahawks they took in the third? He gave them 39 games played, 15 starts, 62 total targets, 45 receptions, and 380ish receiving yards in around 3 seasons with the team. These caliber players or worse are what shockingly (to me before looking into this) make up the majority of third round selections. 

2015 - The standouts are Tyler Lockett, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, PJ Williams, John Miller, Jordan Hicks, David Johnson, Danielle Hunter, and Henry Anderson. Lockett is pro bowl caliber. Hunter is the same. David Johnson had one really good year. The rest of those guys are ok players but hardly essential players to successful teams. There are far more selections like Alex Carter (appeared in 1 game for Detroit, 1 other for a different team and hasn't played in any other since), Carl Davis who played in 29 games for the Ravens, provided .5 sacks, 30 tackles, and played in 27% of the defensive snaps those 2 seasons before moving on to Cleveland prior to his 3rd season. Paul Dawson was a 3rd round selection of the Bengals, he provided the same number of total tackles as he did games played in, thirteen. With zero starts. Before leaving for Seattle for 3 game appearances to end his career in his third season. 

2014 - You have Prestone Brown, Christian Kirksey, Gabe Jackson, John Brown, Trai Turner, and Morgan Mosses as all the players that provided multiple years of starting caliber or better quality of play, and some of those weren't with the team that drafted them. That's it. Then you have a whole bunch of Dezmen Southward (19 games played in 2 seasons, 0 starts, 1 INT, 24 total tackles, and 20 percent of defensive snaps played in 2 seasons before playing 1 additional season elsewhere before retiring. Jay Bromley rewarded the investment with 4 seasons, 55 games played, 4 starts, 2 sacks, 75 total tackles, and 30% of the defensive snaps possible during his time in NY. Plenty of other similar caliber players throughout that round. 

2013 - Travis Kelce, Larry Waford, Tyran Mathieu, Terron Armstead, Jordan Reed, Keenan Allen, Shawn Williams, and Logan Ryan. So obviously some all pro caliber players in Kelce and Allen, perhaps even Armstead. Honey Badger is pro bowl caliber. As was Waford at certain points. But that's where the players that developed into quality long term starters or better pretty much ends. A couple fringe guys like Terrance Williams,  After them its a long list of guys like Sio Moore, Kayvon Webster, Corey Lemonier, Zaviar Gooden, Dallas Thomas, John Jenkins, Brennan Williams, etc. 

2012 - Gave us Russell Wilson, Trumaine Johnson, Olivier Vernon, Brandon Brooks, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Foles, and Aikem Hicks. The rest of that third round was a majority of Ronnie Hillman, Devier Posey, Josh Robinson, T.J. Graham, Michael Egnew, Brandon Hardin (never appeared in an NFL game, Mike Martin, Bill Bentley, etc. 

I went overboard with this. But I became so fascinated by it. I am not at all saying that I am pleased with our recent third round selections. And choosing guys you end up trading before they even get through camp is bad regardless (although they did get the next years equal round back). But the more you look at the third round of the draft over the past decade I saw you have less than a 1 percent chance of finding an elite, HOF level talent in the third round, over the past decade I looked at there was on average like 2-5 all pro caliber talents/perennial pro bowlers, another handful of long term (as in 3+ years as a starter) decent quality starters. Another handful of really quality depth players that are good at that but bad players if forced to start. And another 15-20 players on average that are going to range from so bad they never appear in a game for the team that drafted them, hang on at the bottom of the roster at a thin position still only being able to give you 20-30% of snaps and basically zero production, or guys that end up starting 20-30 games in the NFL because of necessity but aren't great players and likely aren't any better talents than a lot of the guys that never see the field that much but their teams had fewer alternatives. 

When you look at the third and fourth round as a whole for NFL teams it becomes how apparent judging most GMs ability to nail their picks in those rounds is a dangerous proposition to factor in heavily to their ability at their job. I mean pick almost any team, even the ones we say have phenomenal drafting GMs and look at their 3rd round selections during their time. Almost all of them have a high percentage of guys that never became a really good depth piece, forget about high end starter. 

I'm not at all saying Mayock has done well in the third round. I am largely saying that when looking at the recent history of players drafted in that range we don't have enough data to make a real judgment on his ability in that range. Finding elite talent in that range is scratch off lottery ticket odds at best, even for the elite GMs. And finding guys that never amount to more than your Brandon Parker, Bryan Edwards right now today, and we'll see with Diablo and Koonce. He deserves blame for Muse and Bowden (though being quick to admit defeat on Bowden and getting a pick back helps soften the blow) because it's not the majority of 3rd round picks that never see a single regular season snap. But it's not super rare either. If Koonce develops into a Yannick (also a 3rd rounder), Diablo becomes a starting caliber LB, Edwards continues to play well as our #2 or #3 WR or takes another step forward, or all of the above, suddenly in comparison to recent history of third round selections league wide Mayock looks like he may have a real eye for talent. Looking over the past decade or so of 3rd round picks also made it extremely clear it is far too early to write off Edwards, Koonce, Diablo, etc off right now. The hit rate is low overall in that range. You start looking for guys drafted there that made a big impact year one and you suddenly see that is basically just luck on insane odds. 

This is a really excellent, insightful post. I never had gone through it that thoroughly (obviously) and would have thought the 3rd round was much, much more productive.

It's a real eye opener and perhaps just accentuates how crucial the first and second round and hitting on your big picks is.

[Darbsk]

On 11/9/2021 at 10:23 PM, NYRaider said:

Our run defense has been absolutely terrible again this season, I think it's time for people to accept that Hankins isn't a run stuffer like everyone was suggesting before the season. 

I'd prefer to go: 

1. Jordan Davis | NT | Georgia: Davis doesn't have great production but is currently 10th in Heisman odds as a nose tackle, why? Because his ability as a run stuffer and to eat blocks makes life for everyone around him so much easier. Georgia is giving up 3.1 yards per play and 2.5 yards per rush with Davis on the field this year. At 6'6" 340 if we put him in the middle of our defensive line it would make a massive difference and benefit Crosby/Yannick and our LBs. 

2.Daniel Faalele | OT | Minnesota: 6'9" 380 RT with 35" arms and great movement skills, enough said.

 

First of all, Hankins is a very good run stuffing DT but the whole front 7 have to play the run to make a great run stuffing team and we have lightweight, smaller DTs next to him with average to below average run playing DEs in Crosby and Ngakoue plus Littleton is a poor run defender. We've focused on getting after the QB and I've got no problem in that, we haven't been that bad in run defence IMO, just average.

Secondly, I have absolutely no issues adding a really big DT like Davis but one thing I'm concerned with is he's so tall he can struggle with leverage at times and overcomes that with size and strength at the college level, simply manhandling kids. In the NFL he might come unstuck as the IOL are stronger and play with better leverage. If he can learn to play with great leverage all the time he'll be a monster and I'd take a chance on that. I don't view him as totally one dimensional and value a DT like him pretty high as he has upside if he can add some finesse to his game.

Faalele is a guy I like too, I do wonder if he might be too big in some instances, like against speed guys though he does seem pretty good with his feet. Like the fact that he came from rugby in Australia, you can't play there unless you're pretty tough and can move about. I'd be on board with both those guys, both have huge (literally) potential.

[jpaulthe1st]

3 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

I would like Allen Robinson and Gallup. I think those two are (1) likely to not be re-signed, and (2) relatively cheap.

I don’t think Robinson will be as cheap as people are expecting. I think league GM’s realize his upside is immense and will give him the benefit of the doubt because of his QB situation. I’m guessing he gets somewhere in the 16-20 range and will be signed within the first 2-3 days of FA. 

[Darbsk]

On 11/23/2021 at 9:34 PM, big_palooka said:

Davis has Vince Wilfork, Sam Adams like potential. Used to love guys like that who completely wrecked the interior. 

The guy I thought of first was Chester McGlockton, don't know if you can remember the big guy? I think Davis has some pass rush potential........

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, Darbsk said:

The guy I thought of first was Chester McGlockton, don't know if you can remember the big guy? I think Davis has some pass rush potential........

Man... there is a throw back. Used to love that dude in the mid-90's

 

[NYRaider]

5 hours ago, jpaulthe1st said:

I don’t think Robinson will be as cheap as people are expecting. I think league GM’s realize his upside is immense and will give him the benefit of the doubt because of his QB situation. I’m guessing he gets somewhere in the 16-20 range and will be signed within the first 2-3 days of FA. 

He's going to be 29 at the start of next season, I'd guess his deal is similar to what Golladay got from the Giants. (4 yr/$72M)

[Styrian Raider]

PFF has adjusted their big board. (by the way - on what sites do you guys look stats etc. or do you watch tapes?)

I find it interesting that now there's an austrian guy in the top 30 (Bernhard Raiman, OT, Central Michigan).
Would be the first austrian who is picked in the draft.

[OnlyGlove]

Right now I am not against getting a big time WR in FA and then going WR early in the draft.  Hunter to continue as slot WR and Edwards as 4th choice.  

 

Whomever we sign. Need one of them to be able to stretch the field. Not saying reach for a Riggs replacement but need somebody to take the top off. 

 

Any 2/3rd round guys that could do that?

[Mr Raider]

18 hours ago, Darbsk said:

This is a really excellent, insightful post. I never had gone through it that thoroughly (obviously) and would have thought the 3rd round was much, much more productive.

It's a real eye opener and perhaps just accentuates how crucial the first and second round and hitting on your big picks is.

Yeah I actually went into it expecting to find much different results that was really going to nail home how bad our recent selections in that area have been. I came away with the same conclusion you did, nailing your first and second round picks is even more important than I originally believed it to be (and I always thought it was important) because even the best GMs are going to struggle mightily to build a quality team off their ability to find contributors in the third and fourth round. 

[oakdb36]

Shows how remarkable it is to find Crosby and Renfrow on day 3 of the same draft. They're not just contributors, they're some of the best in the league at their respective positions.

[Frankie2Gunz]

23 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

I would like Allen Robinson and Gallup. I think those two are (1) likely to not be re-signed, and (2) relatively cheap.

100 percent agree.  Gallup is underrated and ARob should be able to be signed at a discount after this poor statical season.  

A WR corp of Arob and Gallup on the outside with Renfrow in the slot and Edwards as the number 4.  That would be a formidable group!  The dynamic of our O would change with not much speed but we will be much improved in the RZ.  

We still could use a young field stretcher like Ruggs though.  He added such a dynamic element to this O.

[ronjon1990]

5 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

100 percent agree.  Gallup is underrated and ARob should be able to be signed at a discount after this poor statical season.  

A WR corp of Arob and Gallup on the outside with Renfrow in the slot and Edwards as the number 4.  That would be a formidable group!  The dynamic of our O would change with not much speed but we will be much improved in the RZ.  

We still could use a young field stretcher like Ruggs though.  He added such a dynamic element to this O.

Someone has thrown out John Ross' name before. I like it. 

He's not been overly productive (though he also hasn't had very good QB play either so there is that caveat). But it's not like Desean Jackson has been tearing up the stat sheets the last few years either. 

Bring him in just for the same role, and improve the quality of the rest of the WR corps, and we should be set. The "threat" of the deep ball seems to be more beneficial to us than actually going deep with regularity, so who cares if he's putting up huge stats, right? (That is, so long as he doesn't drop every ball that does come his way lol)

[oakdb36]

I'd extend Renfrow before i start handing out contracts to FA WRs. That would leave open the possibility to pursue one "expensive" WR but definitely not 2.

[SimonGruber]

9 minutes ago, oakdb36 said:

I'd extend Renfrow before i start handing out contracts to FA WRs. That would leave open the possibility to pursue one "expensive" WR but definitely not 2.

Yep go get Allen Robinson and start practicing those back shoulder throws  he can be what Crabtree was and more