2021 Official Steelers Schedule Thread and Record Predictions

[Steeler Hitman]

34 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Anyways I see anywhere from 6-11 to 9-8.  I fail to see double digit wins.

Realistically, it is hard to argue that based on how they ended the season last year. This team is a bit wonky and unpredictable. When you expect big things, they seem to underachieve. When you expect little, they play the way they are capable of or exceed expectations. After the let down of an 11-0 start, talk of competing for a SB and then teams beating up on the Steelers including the Bengals and Browns. I see some "get back" in Coach T and Ben. It will be a highly contested division. While the Browns won't sneak up on anyone, everyone has high expectations for the Ravens, the Bengals will be improved, and I think the Steelers will fly under the radar. With this perhaps being Ben's final ride, I see them playing with fire and a purpose. I also think they are truly a bit pissed that they lost the "tough image" last year. Never before had we hear the words "soft" and Steelers in the same sentence. They have a lot to prove and will have to earn teams respect. while the Lions are biting kneecaps, the Steelers need to start punching in the mouth and playing bully ball. 

This is how teams saw the Steelers last year.

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

We haven't had a week 1 home opener since 2014 and every other team has had at least 2.

That part doesn't really bother me that much. I worked in minor league baseball and heard their discussions over "date bidding". That could be something the Steelers ask for. Like in the first 9 weeks we have 3 road games and a bye. Looking at the last three years our Bye week comes with 2 straight home games near it -- giving three weeks of home time. My guess is that's something of the give and take. 

We want Baltimore at home on Sunday Night. We want home/bye stretch. We will open on the road for those things. 

[warfelg]

13 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

That part doesn't really bother me that much. I worked in minor league baseball and heard their discussions over "date bidding". That could be something the Steelers ask for. Like in the first 9 weeks we have 3 road games and a bye. Looking at the last three years our Bye week comes with 2 straight home games near it -- giving three weeks of home time. My guess is that's something of the give and take. 

We want Baltimore at home on Sunday Night. We want home/bye stretch. We will open on the road for those things. 

Ehhhhh....but to be the only team with 0? NFL has to know they could make bank with a Steelers prime time week one home game. To not have them with it is something. 
 

The only thing I can think of is Pitt Panthers (screw them. Seriously build a stadium on campus) play home games against cupcakes early and the NFL is trying to avoid that. 

[Dcash4]

1 minute ago, warfelg said:

Ehhhhh....but to be the only team with 0? NFL has to know they could make bank with a Steelers prime time week one home game. To not have them with it is something. 
 

The only thing I can think of is Pitt Panthers (screw them. Seriously build a stadium on campus) play home games against cupcakes early and the NFL is trying to avoid that. 

If you ask for it, it's really not hard to see being the only team with 0. Other teams might not ask, so it makes it an easy decision. In terms of the bold, the Steelers have no problems with any draw and neither does week 1. I would argue they are better served with Prime games later in the season, though they have had 3 in the last 5 years I think. 

The Pitt thing is a good point. That could very well be it or even just be why the Steelers ask (if that's actually what they do). 

[Dcash4]

Here is how I break down the schedule before even knowing the teams. 

I get my base by considering:
- We are average to good
- Our division is good
- You will beat the bottom two teams of each other division
- You will lose to the top team in each other division
- You will split 2nd top other division games as an average team 

- Our Division: Beat the Bengals twice, split to the Ravens and Browns (4 wins, 3 home games)
- Beat Low Divisions Teams: Raiders, Broncos, Bears and Lions (4 wins, and all home games)
- Lose to top teams: Packers, Chiefs

That's 8-4 with games against the, Vikings, Chargers, Titans, Seahawks, and Bills.

8 Wins is my baseline. 

Those are the 5 games that will really determine the record. The Bills are the only team I would feel very comfortable betting money we lose on all the others I think are at least on the same level. So consider we lose the Bills and split the last four (going 2-3 against the 5, with 2 of them being home games) -- its 10 wins. 

[Steeler Hitman]

2 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

We haven't had a week 1 home opener since 2014 and every other team has had at least 2. That part doesn't really bother me that much.

My problem is that the league is not consistent with it. If every other team has had two opening home games in that same period and the Steelers haven't had even one, that is a disparity that they need to fix. I don't think that you have the same excitement, etc. as opening kick-off the second week. I am sure that it has an effect on $$$ as well. Maybe not a whole lot, but I would guess that it does. I could understand two years in a row or even three of four, but not four straight. 

2 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

I worked in minor league baseball and heard their discussions over "date bidding". That could be something the Steelers ask for. Like in the first 9 weeks we have 3 road games and a bye. Looking at the last three years our Bye week comes with 2 straight home games near it -- giving three weeks of home time. My guess is that's something of the give and take. 

I am sure that all 32 teams make requests and have wants and desires. Fair point, but I think that is more of an after fact concession than getting something up front. Because the process is somewhat skewed you end up with "sweetheart deals," give backs and concessions. Manage the process consistently across the board. That is the issue because some things are done for $$$ and ratings. It is a business and it's about the bottom line. I just believe there is a better way to do it more equitably.

We want Baltimore at home on Sunday Night. We want home/bye stretch. We will open on the road for those things. 

I have not been privy to those types of things and I certainly respect your input on that subject and schedule making in general. Even if that were the case, (in my opinion) that is not the right thing to do for FOUR straight years. There have been some creativity and consistency concerns for years. There are computers that could easily manage this process. I get that there may be some tweaks  and changes due to teams improving or getting worse/popularity ratings, $$$ that may have an impact as well.

 

 

[Steeler Hitman]

2 hours ago, Dcash4 said:

Here is how I break down the schedule before even knowing the teams. 

I get my base by considering:
- We are average to good
- Our division is good
- You will beat the bottom two teams of each other division
- You will lose to the top team in each other division
- You will split 2nd top other division games as an average team 

- Our Division: Beat the Bengals twice, split to the Ravens and Browns (4 wins, 3 home games)
- Beat Low Divisions Teams: Raiders, Broncos, Bears and Lions (4 wins, and all home games)
- Lose to top teams: Packers, Chiefs

That's 8-4 with games against the, Vikings, Chargers, Titans, Seahawks, and Bills.

8 Wins is my baseline. 

Those are the 5 games that will really determine the record. The Bills are the only team I would feel very comfortable betting money we lose on all the others I think are at least on the same level. So consider we lose the Bills and split the last four (going 2-3 against the 5, with 2 of them being home games) -- its 10 wins. 

That's good stuff! 

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, Steeler Hitman said:

I have not been privy to those types of things and I certainly respect your input on that subject and schedule making in general. Even if that were the case, (in my opinion) that is not the right thing to do for FOUR straight years.

It just depends really on what your demands are and if you offer to do something else. The example that I have with the Minor league team is that we offered to take Mothers Day every season which was a horrible, horrible, god forsaken day of making money on a weekend ball game. But we asked for, and got, the 4th of July weekend every year -- which kills it. 

I also have a unique perspective of creating schedules for adults sports leagues. If you have a request FOR something other people don't really want - you get it every time. Starting games in the city at 6:30 PM could be tough, but the teams that WANTED that pretty much had all their games scheduled then because it was so unwanted. So if they do actually ask for that first weekend to be away in return for Sunday Night home for Ravens, multiple home games around the bye, or not to play at Baltimore in primetime, etc. they will probably get it every time. 

My ask would be start me on the road, but I finish at home. We haven't gotten that. I also have no clue if they are actually even allowed to ask for things, so this could all just be a waste of space. 

[cjfollett]

I see the season being generally disappointing with a few highs and too many lows, a record ranging anywhere from 6-11 to 12-5, and hinging on several key games. My best guess for the season is somewhere in between, probably 9-8. I generally think the O will be okay. I am not sure the D will stop the better teams in the league, and it remains to be seen who those teams will be. I'd be willing to bet there are at least 4 losses and at least 4 wins.

L - @ Buff 0-1, Unless the D really steps up and surprises me, this is a loss.
? - LV 1-1 or 0-2, This will be closer than the Bills, but the Steelers have issues. This is one of the key indicators how the season will go.
W - Cin 2-1 or 1-2, I think Najee will have a great game here and the Steelers play well overall.
L - @ GB 2-2 or 1-3, I don't think Rodgers is going anywhere, and the Steelers don't have the pass rush needed to stop him.
W - Den 3-2 or 2-3, Who is their QB again?
L - Sea 3-3 or 2-4, I'd love to see a win here, but I think we will see the same issues we saw versus GB. A win here changes my outlook.
Bye Week 
? - @ Cle 4-3 or 2-5, I just have a feeling about this one, Steelers coming off a bye and quietly wanting revenge for last year's loss in the playoffs. A loss here and the season could be over.
W - Chi 5-3 or 3-5, I wonder if the rookie is playing for the Bears by this time or not.
W - Det 6-3 or 4-5, Starting to believe with three straight wins?
L - @ LAC 6-4 or 4-6, Yuck on the west coast.
W - @ Cin 7-4 or 5-6, Is Burrows hurt again?
? - Balt 8-4 or 5-7, This one could go either way as usual, but we seem to have figured out Jackson. This is must win, IMO.
W - @ Minn 9-3 or 6-7, Unless the Steelers completely suck, they should not lose this game.
? - Tenn 10-3 or 6-8, Najee vs. Henry is going to be fun to watch, but who will win? 
L - @ KC 10-4 or 6-9, They just have too much fire power.
? - Cle 11-4 or 6-10, Just another feeling. The Steelers can win this one, but I think they won't. Make or break for the season, a win here likely means a playoff berth.
? - @ Bal 12-5 or 6-11, Either the Steelers rest all their key players for the playoffs, or they put in a lot of youngsters to see what they have. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by cjfollett
adding text for 1st Browns game

[43M]

One thing I will say about this team under Tomlin is that it has often responded well to tough ON PAPER schedules.      Granted, Ben was younger and we had a better overall team most of those years, but for all of Tomlin's faults, he usually has this team playing hard when the chips seem to be down (not counting playoffs).

I do tend to lean in @warfelg's direction in regards to where we will finish, but NOT COUNTING INJURIES, I am thinking 7 to 10 wins, and if we sneak into the playoffs, it will be over very quickly.  

Either way, I kind of expect this to be a wasted year.      I feel like bringing Ben back was a mistake and waste of time, and will only serve to help keep us out of reaching distance for his long term replacement.    He sure as hell isnt a championship QB anymore, and unless the rest of the team is somehow crazy good around him, making it to double digit wins with this schedule will be tough.

[Dcash4]

The strength of schedule thing is kinda getting blown out of proportion. Thinking any bit past record gives a little more clarity. Yes, we are playing better teams, but its not like we are playing 17 Chiefs and Packers. 

- The Ravens and the Browns: Had LARGELY the same schedules we did. So if we get smoked for beating cupcakes....guess what? The Browns beat the Bengals (twice), Dallas, Houston, Philly, Jags, Giants and us with Mason for 8 of the 11 wins.... Ravens: Houston, Bengals (twice), Eagles, Dallas, Jags, Giants...7 of 11. But remember -- the Steelers 7 of 12 wins were bad! Ravens and Browns 7 wins...good!
- Vikings: 7 wins, 6 against bottom 10 teams. Their 1 win against a playoff team was against the packers and it took Davlin going for 220+
- Titans: 7 of their 11 wins against teams in the bottom 10. Getting the Jags and the Texans 2 times each. Add in Detroit, Chicago, and Denver for good measure. 
- Chargers: I am huuuuge fan of theirs in terms of what they have going. They went on a 4 game winning streak which propelled the "momentum" of the direction of their ship....those 4 games? Atlanta, Las Vegas, Denver, and KC without starters....Their other 3 wins? Jets, Jags, and Bengals. 

The Packers, Bills, and Chiefs are all really good teams. Theres no one else on our schedule that is head and shoulders better than the Steelers. There's just two narratives that are not full stories flying around describing us. That our record was inflated by our opponent, like other teams are not,  and that our strength of schedule means everyone is better than us, because their records are inflated too. 

If our record is inflated and fake...so are the Browns and Ravens. If our strength of schedule means so much, then those games that people played against the Bears, Lions, and Jets matter and we are not given credit for ours. It's just a circle of contradiction. 

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

The strength of schedule thing is kinda getting blown out of proportion. Thinking any bit past record gives a little more clarity. Yes, we are playing better teams, but its not like we are playing 17 Chiefs and Packers. 

- The Ravens and the Browns: Had LARGELY the same schedules we did. So if we get smoked for beating cupcakes....guess what? The Browns beat the Bengals (twice), Dallas, Houston, Philly, Jags, Giants and us with Mason for 8 of the 11 wins.... Ravens: Houston, Bengals (twice), Eagles, Dallas, Jags, Giants...7 of 11. But remember -- the Steelers 7 of 12 wins were bad! Ravens and Browns 7 wins...good!
- Vikings: 7 wins, 6 against bottom 10 teams. Their 1 win against a playoff team was against the packers and it took Davlin going for 220+
- Titans: 7 of their 11 wins against teams in the bottom 10. Getting the Jags and the Texans 2 times each. Add in Detroit, Chicago, and Denver for good measure. 
- Chargers: I am huuuuge fan of theirs in terms of what they have going. They went on a 4 game winning streak which propelled the "momentum" of the direction of their ship....those 4 games? Atlanta, Las Vegas, Denver, and KC without starters....Their other 3 wins? Jets, Jags, and Bengals. 

The Packers, Bills, and Chiefs are all really good teams. Theres no one else on our schedule that is head and shoulders better than the Steelers. There's just two narratives that are not full stories flying around describing us. That our record was inflated by our opponent, like other teams are not,  and that our strength of schedule means everyone is better than us, because their records are inflated too. 

If our record is inflated and fake...so are the Browns and Ravens. If our strength of schedule means so much, then those games that people played against the Bears, Lions, and Jets matter and we are not given credit for ours. It's just a circle of contradiction. 

Super great post. I like the ability to take a step back and examine something critically. 

[cjfollett]

Strength of schedule to me is more than just who the opponents are. It's how the schedule lines up against those opponents. In the 1st 4 games the Steelers have two very tough road games @ BUF and @ GB. In the middle of the season they have three prime-time games, two of them on the road. The final stretch is Tenn, @ KC, Clev, and @ Balt. 

This doesn't mean the opponents are world beaters or leaps and bounds better than the Steelers. It just means there are challenges to the schedule that make it rather difficult to navigate.

It's the NFL, and there should not be any "easy" games. However, @ Minn on a regular Sunday is a lot more preferable than @ Minn on TNF after just playing the Ravens.

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, cjfollett said:

Strength of schedule to me is more than just who the opponents are. It's how the schedule lines up against those opponents. In the 1st 4 games the Steelers have two very tough road games @ BUF and @ GB. In the middle of the season they have three prime-time games, two of them on the road. The final stretch is Tenn, @ KC, Clev, and @ Balt. 

This doesn't mean the opponents are world beaters or leaps and bounds better than the Steelers. It just means there are challenges to the schedule that make it rather difficult to navigate.

It's the NFL, and there should not be any "easy" games. However, @ Minn on a regular Sunday is a lot more preferable than @ Minn on TNF after just playing the Ravens.

I absolutely agree, but I do think that works both ways. Just as the Ravens followed by @Minn on Thursday night makes that a difficult 2 game stretch, it also gives you 10 games to follow the Titans at home in what you would think would be hyper focus to make up for the rough stretch. 

Yes, we open on the road at the Bills, but we follow 2 at home with winnable games before heading to Green Bay. 

We get Seattle coming off @SF, Home to the Rams, and followed by Home to NO. That's a rough stretch to put a cross country flight on - especially with us in our second consecutive home game and right before our bye. 

We go to Cleveland who will be playing on 10 days rest after Thursday against Denver....but we are coming off our bye. 

Cleveland ends the Season @balt, bye, Balt, Raiders, @Green Bay, @Steelers, before the finisher at home to Cinny. That's a rough stretch for them too to come face us in week 16. 

The Ravens end Cle, @Pit, @Cle, GB, @Cin, LAR, Pit. Also not a cake walk. 

[cjfollett]

1 hour ago, Dcash4 said:

I absolutely agree, but I do think that works both ways. Just as the Ravens followed by @Minn on Thursday night makes that a difficult 2 game stretch, it also gives you 10 games to follow the Titans at home in what you would think would be hyper focus to make up for the rough stretch. 

Yes, we open on the road at the Bills, but we follow 2 at home with winnable games before heading to Green Bay. 

We get Seattle coming off @SF, Home to the Rams, and followed by Home to NO. That's a rough stretch to put a cross country flight on - especially with us in our second consecutive home game and right before our bye. 

We go to Cleveland who will be playing on 10 days rest after Thursday against Denver....but we are coming off our bye. 

Cleveland ends the Season @balt, bye, Balt, Raiders, @Green Bay, @Steelers, before the finisher at home to Cinny. That's a rough stretch for them too to come face us in week 16. 

The Ravens end Cle, @Pit, @Cle, GB, @Cin, LAR, Pit. Also not a cake walk. 

Very good points. I obviously have not paid as much attention to other team's schedules. I tend to look at the Steelers in a bubble and ignore the rest