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3 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

I also think we are underrating Jarvis Landrys impact/role for this offense. He is Bakers security blanket and without him out there Bakers doesnt have his 'old reliable' to get the ball to on 3rd downs and to work the middle of the field.

 

Yeah him being out sure as hell isn’t helping anything.

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On 10/5/2021 at 8:50 PM, MWil23 said:

Oooh oooh! I like this one! Now show him vs the blitz last year after week 6. :) 

On 10/5/2021 at 8:53 PM, MWil23 said:

I especially like the 24 pass sample size and the clickbait there about his taking off the cliff the last two weeks due to said pressure. Truly hilarious stuff here.

 

Which is the true person, Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?

Such is the question of which version of Baker is the real Baker.

That’s because his the full body of work often possesses equal negatives to positives.

The conflict that people have about Baker represents the conflicting nature of his top level play clashing with his bottom basement performance.

Let’s take an example: Let’s say that there’s this charlantan non-wordsmithian named MWil who is near the absolute bottom of meaningful performance metrics for 8 games in the 2020 season (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). After those 8 games, that derp finds his way near the top of performance metrics for approximately 9 games (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). Then, in the new 2021 season that same Bakersballsacksman is at the absolute bottom for 4 games (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period).

Simple math: That  means out of the last 21 games, 12 games or 57% of games you’ve been cheeks and in 9 games or 43% of games you’ve been performant.

Replace MWil in this example with Baker and that's emblematic of the Baker experience. Now, we all know that there are contextual factors surrounding the various games (i.e., player injury, COVID-19, new offense, etc), but the data this year of a negative trend is not completely new. 

But that’s not the whole picture of performance as there are also prior seasons of data with their own contextual factors that point toward the trend as well.

---------------

The Relevant Analytical Comparison:

Let’s look at the “under pressure” analytics and overall performance metrics.

They don’t suggest exactly what you think they suggest.

I think you are mixing up some things and selectively attending to some metrics/analytics and forgetting other aspect of Baker’s performance. Specifically, that by only taking into account Baker’s best stretch in the 2nd half of last season (week 7 and on), he was still only the 20th ranked QB under pressure according to PFF. He was however much higher in other relevant metrics.

We’ve all seen in read the post bye week analytical breakdown of Baker’s performance. Typically, the breakdown has focused on Baker’s performance Week 7 through the postseason where he ranked second among quarterbacks in passing grade (91.8), fifth in big-time throw rate (6.6%) and first in turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%).

I.) PFF Overall Performance 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7)

Weeks 1-6 (26th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 57.3

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 3.9%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 5.6%

Weeks 7-DP (2nd in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 91.8

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 6.6%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 1.6%

 

II.) Under Pressure 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7)

Weeks 1-6 (36th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 32.9

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 0.0%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 6.2%

Weeks 7-DP (20th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 49.9

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 4.0%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 3.7%

 

The 4-game sample size of 24 passes under pressure this season is of similar but lower quality to Baker at his worst stretch last year before he and the offense figured things out. When someone says "and this is not a new trend," that means this negative trend has happened before. Therefore, the title of Petrak’s article isn’t wrong.

 

Here's Baker's pressure versus not PFF grades via a comparison to his peers this year

FA4hKD6WYAs9AAy?format=jpg&name=4096x409

---------

Moment Pressure VS. Pocket Pressure: The Real Baker Issue

There's pressure as measured analytically by defensive rush effecting the QB.

To me, the most important pressure that effects Baker negatively can be related but is its own separate entity: Big Game and/or Big Moment Pressure.

I’ve made the points prior that’s the real concerning trend with Baker; that is, whether it be the fumbles against the Jets and Titans on game deciding plays. Or the pre-shoulder injury misses on 3 consecutive final drives against Kansas City and more (see below), Baker’s has as of yet to show he can consistently perform at a top level in those moments.

 In the end, the jury is out on Baker and there’s reason to believe that the offense will start to click as the season progresses. However, assuming that all is well and Baker’s performance has been sunshine and rainbows is a fantasy based dreamscape.

On 10/4/2021 at 7:55 PM, Empire Lies said:

It has to be the shoulder.

It really just has to be.

If it's the yips or the pressure of the contract or pressure of super bowl expectations then the Haslams and Andrew Berry need to invest every resource possible to get Baker an effective Sports & Performance Psychologist and Baker needs to be willing to receive the help.

In truth, even if it is that stuff he can get past it in ways that help this team still remain on track to their goals.

Baker's always had issues in critical pressure moments in big games going back to the miss hung inside ball to a wide open Jarvis Landry in the 2018-2019 Ravens playoff spoiler game at the end of the year to last year's 2 wide open misses in the endzone and wide open miss to Kareem Hunt against Jacksonville to the fumble and misses against the Jets in what was a playoff clinching game at the time to this year's wide open misses to Njoku and Schwartz in the last deciding drives against Kansas City.

I'm willing to attribute post-Kansas City struggles to the shoulder even though deep down inside I doubt that's the case.

We need the issue to be the shoulder b/c critiques of Baker or not Browns fans don't deserve to really have to experience the maddening dark timeline of events whereby Baker gets in the way of winning in key moments.

The good news is Baker's still young and the season is young. There's a lot of smart people in the building and Baker by all accounts still is a hard worker and is ultra motivated to turn things around.

He just has to. Will he? Maybe not, but the Rams went to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff and the 49ers with Jimmy G. He doesn't have to be spectacular in this paint by numbers offense with a quality defense. If he can just improve a few percentage points in critical moment play, the Browns can go where they want to go.

 

 

Edited by Empire Lies
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LOL

That graphic has Daniel Jones as fantastic under pressure!!!! Hahahaha

And Aaron Rodgers as terrible under pressure. That’s fantastic. I also got BINGO (Charlatan, derp, nonwordsmithian, absolute, free space)

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15 minutes ago, Empire Lies said:

 

Which is the true person, Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?

Such is the question of which version of Baker is the real Baker.

That’s because of the full body of work has often equal negatives to positives.

The conflict that people have about Baker represents the conflicting nature of his top level play clashing with his bottom basement performance.

Let’s take an example: Let’s say that there’s this charlantan non-wordsmithian named MWil who is near the absolute bottom of meaningful performance metrics for 8 games in the 2020 season (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). After those 8 games, that derp finds his way near the top of performance metrics for approximately 9 games (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period). Then, in the new 2021 that same Bakersballsacksman is at the absolute bottom for 4 games (that accounts for the average performance between the up weeks and down weeks during that time period).

Simple math: That  means out of the last 21 games, 12 games or 57% of games you’ve been cheeks and in 9 games or 43% of games you’ve been performant.

Now, we all know that there are contextual factors surrounding the various games (i.e., player injury, COVID-19, new offense, etc), but the data this year of a negative trend is not completely new.

But that’s not the whole picture of performance as there are also prior seasons of data with their own contextual factors that point toward the trend as well.

---------------

The Relevant Analytical Comparison:

Let’s look at the “under pressure” analytics and overall performance metrics.

They don’t suggest exactly what you think they suggest.

I think you are mixing up some things and selectively attending to some metrics/analytics and forgetting other aspect of Baker’s performance. Specifically, that by only taking into account Baker’s best stretch in the 2nd half of last season (week 7 and on), he was still only the 20th ranked QB under pressure according to PFF. He was however much higher in other relevant metrics.

We’ve all seen in read the post bye week analytical breakdown of Baker’s performance. Typically, the breakdown has focused on Baker’s performance Week 7 through the postseason where he ranked second among quarterbacks in passing grade (91.8), fifth in big-time throw rate (6.6%) and first in turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%).

I.) PFF Overall Performance 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7)

Weeks 1-6 (26th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 57.3

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 3.9%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 5.6%

Weeks 7-DP (26th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 91.8

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 6.6%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 1.6%

 

II.) Under Pressure 2020 Season (Pre-VS-Post Week 7)

Weeks 1-6 (36th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 32.9

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 0.0%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 6.2%

Weeks 7-DP (20th in the NFL)

Passing Grade: 49.9

Big Time Throw % (BTT%): 4.0%

Turnover Worthy % (TWP%): 3.7%

 

The 4-game sample size of 24 passes under pressure this season is of similar but lower quality to Baker at his worst stretch last year before he and the offense figured things out. When someone says "and this is not a new trend," that means this negative trend has happened before. Therefore, the title of Petrak’s article isn’t wrong.

 

Here's Baker's pressure versus not PFF grades via a comparison to his peers this year

FA4hKD6WYAs9AAy?format=jpg&name=4096x409

---------

Moment Pressure VS. Pocket Pressure: The Real Baker Issue

There's pressure as measured analytically by defensive rush effecting the QB.

To me, the most important pressure that effects Baker negatively can be related but is its own separate entity: Big Game and/or Big Moment Pressure.

I’ve made the points prior that’s the real concerning trend with Baker; that is, whether it be the fumbles against the Jets and Titans on game deciding plays. Or the pre-shoulder injury misses on 3 consecutive final drives against Kansas City and more (see below), Baker’s has as of yet to show he can consistently perform at a top level in those moments.

 In the end, the jury is out on Baker and there’s reason to believe that the offense will start to click as the season progresses. However, assuming that all is well and Baker’s performance has been sunshine and rainbows is a fantasy based dreamscape.

 

 

Screen_Shot_2020-07-24_at_11.33.38_AM.jp

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17 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

One great thing is Baker plays well with a chip on his shoulder. 
I think he throws 3 Tds and runs one in. 

I agree, he has a fire lit under his butt (just posted to Instagram)

FBDlulEXoAQv0tU?format=jpg&name=small

Edited by TeHDruiD
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1 hour ago, Kiwibrown said:

One great thing is Baker plays well with a chip on his shoulder. 
I think he throws 3 Tds and runs one in. 

I'd rather him play well with a sling on his shoulder at this point

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18 minutes ago, brooks1957 said:

This explains last Sunday

 

REALLY disappointing and completely unsurprising. He's going to be a roller-coaster this year if he can't figure out how to play through it. This is exactly why you don't make a tackle like that if you're a QB.

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7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

REALLY disappointing and completely unsurprising. He's going to be a roller-coaster this year if he can't figure out how to play through it. This is exactly why you don't make a tackle like that if you're a QB.

Yep. Could have screwed our season. 

Once the inflammation goes down it will be interesting to see how he is throwing.

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