Predict the 2021 NFL Season

[notthatbluestuff]

I did this yesterday - can't recall the records but I had the 49ers over LAC. I also had LAR and SF battling for the #1 seed throughout the season. 

[FinSting]

On 5/19/2021 at 7:53 PM, NeptunePenguins said:

I have the Rams winning it all over the Chiefs. Both are 1st seeds.

 

A crusty old veteran QB goes to a new team that immediately wins the Super Bowl? When was the last time that even happened?

[SBLIII]

On 5/20/2021 at 2:19 AM, BayRaider said:

I actually had TB over KC last year. Not to toot my own horn or anything, usually don’t hit a pre-season SB pick (most don’t). And also had Minnesota winning the division (whoops). And had Green Bay missing the playoffs at 9-7 (another whoops). 

I think I have predicted Green Bay a number of times, yes, guilty, but every year is definitely an exaggeration (no offense). I think I had Packers over Chiefs in 2019. Probably picked Packers maybe 4 times in the decade, just don’t remember which years. I think 2011, 2015, 2017, 2019 but I could definitely be wrong. Think I had Saints > Pats 2018. 
 

Looks like I’m on an every other year Packer basis, which means the Vikings will win the Super Bowl this year. 

 

The Vikings are my darkhorse for this year.

[notthatbluestuff]

17 hours ago, FinSting said:

A crusty old veteran QB goes to a new team that immediately wins the Super Bowl? When was the last time that even happened?

We know we're all getting on in years when Matt Stafford is being called a crusty old veteran. 

[ronjon1990]

Assuming 3 things: 

Rodgers plays for Green Bay 

Wilson plays for Seattle

Watson doesn't play this season:

https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/CustomLeague/SchedulePicker/D4CA92D4-BA81-4A0F-A1AD-FC5F5D1C1D64/?L=Iw4JnCM9UsGwVE16saaVs1lzGZHbZDLOfU3NClVfRphxMpPYta8x2hy-i1rF2hKh0xsq9LgNEAGIA&c=cgm:1|tnptlw:true

[candyman93]

Will have more later.
 

Browns vs Chiefs week 1 will happen again 20 weeks later in the AFC Championship. Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles for the NFC Championship.

 

Tampa Bay repeats

[Nozizaki]

I am wondering why a lot of people are so high on the Browns. As a team that only squeaked into the playoffs based on a 2 point winat home over the Steelers' backups, had a -11 point differential, expected W/L of 7.7-8.3, and went 6-3 in one score games they seem like a prime candidate for regression this year.

Health didn't seem to be a big issue on the surface, although I may be missing something here.

Edited May 27, 2021 by Nozizaki

[DawgX]

30 minutes ago, Nozizaki said:

I am wondering why a lot of people are so high on the Browns. As a team that only squeaked into the playoffs based on a 2 point winat home over the Steelers' backups, had a -11 point differential, expected W/L of 7.7-8.3, and went 6-3 in one score games they seem like a prime candidate for regression this year.

Health didn't seem to be a big issue on the surface, although I may be missing something here.

We only squeaked in because we lost to the Jets since we were using practice squad players at wide receiver since our entire wide receiver room was ruled out due to covid protocols. We then crushed the Steelers who were playing their starters, and that was with us losing key pieces - including our coach - due to covid.

The point differential is highly skewed due to two blowout losses early in the season. Then there were many games that we were winning convincingly but gave up garbage time points (along with our annoying use of prevent defense), which made a few games look closer than they really were.

And health was definitely a factor on defense. There were points in the year where we were forced to start special teams players at CB. There were times where Terrance Mitchell was forced to be our #1 CB. We were also hit hard at safety at times last season. Garrett also missed time due to covid. Chubb and Teller also missed time, and they're likely our two best players on offense.

Edited May 27, 2021 by DawgX

[Nozizaki]

11 minutes ago, DawgX said:

We only squeaked in because we lost to the Jets since we were using practice squad players at wide receiver since our entire wide receiver room was ruled out due to covid protocols. We then crushed the Steelers who were playing their starters, and that was with us losing key pieces - including our coach - due to covid.

The point differential is highly skewed due to two blowout losses early in the season. Then there were many games that we were winning convincingly but gave up garbage time points (along with our annoying use of prevent defense), which made a few games look closer than they really were.

And health was definitely a factor on defense. There were points in the year where we were forced to start special teams players at CB. There were times where Terrance Mitchell was forced to be our #1 CB. We were also hit hard at safety at times last season. Garrett also missed time due to covid. Chubb and Teller also missed time, and they're likely our two best players on offense.

No offense, but the playoff game against the Steelers may have been the flukiest result of the whole season. Cleveland won the turnover margin 5-0, which directly led to 21 of the Browns' points. In a game they won by 11. That is far more significant to me than their coach wasn't in the building for the game.

I agree with your other points, COVID obviously affected the Browns pretty significantly. I just personally don't see them morphing into a force into the AFC overnight. They were and will be a better team than the one that lost 38-6 to the Ravens week 1 but they also probably could not repeat that performance against the Steelers. My guess is around 8/9 wins this season.

[buno67]

23 hours ago, Nozizaki said:

No offense, but the playoff game against the Steelers may have been the flukiest result of the whole season. Cleveland won the turnover margin 5-0, which directly led to 21 of the Browns' points. In a game they won by 11. That is far more significant to me than their coach wasn't in the building for the game.

I agree with your other points, COVID obviously affected the Browns pretty significantly. I just personally don't see them morphing into a force into the AFC overnight. They were and will be a better team than the one that lost 38-6 to the Ravens week 1 but they also probably could not repeat that performance against the Steelers. My guess is around 8/9 wins this season.

 

you bring up the Browns steelers game. massive turnover margin and win by 11. The offensive capitalized on them but the defense wasnt able to hold up. That was the script for the browns al year last year. Browns defense was bad last year, hence why it was completely remade this offseason. I saw a stat that said out of the 12 browns defenders that lead the team in missed tackles, only 2 are returning at the moment. Mack Wilson who is one of the 2 might be cut after training camp. 

also the negative point differential isnt a good look but those early season blow outs vs Ravens Steelers really skewed that stat. After week7, they had one of the better offenses in the league but had an defense that could not protect a lead. They had big leads vs Titans and Jags but defense couldnt hold them. which should be a different story this year. 

they might not repeat that performace they had against the steelers like you said but also should have a vasty improved defense compared to last year. 

they were one of only 4teams last year to be top10 in DVOA Passing and DVOA Rushing. They are returning everyone on offense. so the offense shouldnt take a step back and the defense should improve. so they should easily surpass 8/9wins.

if you go off of last year’s records, Browns have a top 10 hardest schedule. if you go off of the Vegas win projection, Brows have a top5 easiest schedules. this isnt the same ol browns that we have been use to seeing for the past 30yrs. Browns actually have a good viable QB ( how good can he be? we have no idea. first time he enters a season not having to learn a new system. so he could stay the the same or keep building off of a 2nd half of a season last year where he played at a top10 level). A great coaching staff ( to win a playoff game without your HC is a testament) and a very intelligent FO. it might have taken them 30yrs but this team might have finally figured it out. 

[Trentwannabe]

Closer to the season I’ll post actual records but as for division winners and SB I currently predict this:

Buffalo
Cleveland
KC
Tennessee

Washington
Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Arizona

Tampa Bay over Buffalo in the SB (insert pain.gif)

[FrantikRam]

12 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

Closer to the season I’ll post actual records but as for division winners and SB I currently predict this:

Buffalo
Cleveland
KC
Tennessee

Washington
Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Arizona

Tampa Bay over Buffalo in the SB (insert pain.gif)

 

The Cardinals have almost no chance to win the NFCW

[Trentwannabe]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

The Cardinals have almost no chance to win the NFCW

It’s actually 25%.

[HoboRocket]

7 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

Anyone but the Cardinals have almost no chance to win the NFCW

FIFY

7 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

It’s actually 250%.

Fixed it for you, too

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

The Cardinals have almost no chance to win the NFCW

Ehhh, I wouldn’t say that. Both West Divisions are probably the only two divisions where there isn’t a single “bad” team. 
 

I’d say:

49ers 36%
Rams 27%
Seahawks 24%
Cardinals 13%

Had to get super technical lol. 
 

I’d be slightly surprised if Seattle won the division, but not really. I would legit be pretty surprised if Arizona won the division but not shocked by any means.