Predict the 2021 NFL Season

[HoboRocket]

5 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Ehhh, I wouldn’t say that. Both West Divisions are probably the only two divisions where there isn’t a single “bad” team. 
 

I’d say:

49ers 36%
Rams 27%
Seahawks 24%
Cardinals 13%

Had to get super technical lol. 
 

I’d be slightly surprised if Seattle won the division, but not really. I would legit be pretty surprised if Arizona won the division but not shocked by any means. 

I mean, to be fair, the Cardinals have upgraded across the board this off-season.

That defense had the 4th most sacks in the NFL last season, and that was without Chandler Jones. They're getting him back and adding JJ Watt to the fold. Bringing Dennis Gardeck back after his season ended early, too. More blitzing ability from the LB spot, as well. 

And then they upgraded at LB and in the secondary. Malcolm Butler is an upgrade over Patrick Peterson. Robert Alford is an upgrade over Dre Kirkpatrick. Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons should be an upgrade over Jordan Hicks and DeVondre Campbell. Big and noticeable upgrades for the #3 red-zone defense.

The six biggest holes on the roster heading into the off-season were center, defensive end, #2 wide receiver, #2 cornerback, power back, and kicker. The Cardinals managed to add a Pro Bowler at each position, including All-Pros at C, DE, and WR.

The Cardinals have improved each season since Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury took over.

What's more, the Cardinals didn't have any significant losses this off-season, where it could be argued that the other teams in the NFC West did. I mean, they lost Chandler Jones' back-up. They lost the back-up TE, as well.

But the Rams' #1 defense lost their DC. Of course, they still have AD. But they lost their play-caller, they lost a starting veteran DE, they lost a starting OLB, they lost a starting CB. Luckily for them, Darious Williams is arguably a better player than Troy Hill, but they already had him. Not really sure who's actually going to be replacing Hill. A'Shawn Robinson is objectively worse than Michael Brockers as a leader, as a pass-rusher, and in the run game. Samson Ebukam was arguably their most versatile LB and they already had probably the worst LB corps in the NFL. 

I'm not saying that the Rams' defense is gonna be awful, but I think that dominant D could drop to the bottom of the top-10 or possibly out entirely, while the Cardinals, who were hanging around that 10-12 range, are trending up on defense.

The Cardinals OL is probably better than the Rams' at this point, as well. DJ Humphries continues to get better and better at LT, pushing top-5 status. PFF did have Whitworth rated better as an 88.7 versus Humphries' 88.3 grade. Justin Pugh is better than David Edwards. Rodney Hudson is arguably the best C in the NFL, while you the Rams are currently having Austin Corbett taking snaps at C (though that doesn't necessarily mean that he's the starter there; he could be moved back to guard similar to how Havenstein moved back to RT after briefly switching spots with Jamon Brown prior to the 2017 season). Kelvin Beachum is probably slightly worse than Rob Havenstein, but the tackles are comparable while IOL is much better for the Cards.

QB is a toss-up. Kyler Murray had 37 offensive TDs in 2020 while Matthew Stafford had 26.  If we're talking JUST passing TDs, then they're tied at 26. Murray had a higher completion percentage than Stafford, but lower yards per attempt. They finished very similarly as far as passing numbers go in 2020, but Murray added 819 yards and 11 TDs on the ground at a 6.2 yards per carry clip. 

I guess you could try to argue durability, and while it is true that Murray got hurt in week 16 and played through an injury in week 17, he has yet to miss a game. Stafford has missed 8 games since Kyler Murray entered the NFL.

I don't know. I guess people have the Cards pegged for the worst team in the division, but they had the clearest and cleanest off-season in the division as far as improvements go, and already finished fighting for a playoff spot in week 17. I feel like they have a pretty solid chance to win it. 

[Thomas5737]

On 5/27/2021 at 8:15 AM, Nozizaki said:

I am wondering why a lot of people are so high on the Browns. As a team that only squeaked into the playoffs based on a 2 point winat home over the Steelers' backups, had a -11 point differential, expected W/L of 7.7-8.3, and went 6-3 in one score games they seem like a prime candidate for regression this year.

3 of those 1 score games the opponent scored a TD in the final 45 seconds to make it a one score game. In another one the opponent scored with less than 5 minutes left to make it a one score game and never saw the ball again on offense. Those 4 wins weren't ever in question. When you account for 1 score games being 50/50 games you can naturally expect regression, theoretically anyway, but not when they weren't actually close games. The other three wins, the 2nd Bengals game and Jaguars/Steelers I would count even though the JagsSteelers were down by 8 late and had to get the two, which they didn't so there wasn't a threat to lose that game but a threat of getting it tied up.

As far as their 1 score losses, That Ravens game could have went either way, The Jets game they could have tied up but that goofy fumble advance call ended their chance on 4th and 1 and the Chiefs game we all saw.

Either way there was 1 win that was a threat to be a loss in regulation in one score games and 1 loss that they could have won in regulation (not counting the Chiefs game because they had a chance to take the lead in the 4th and failed and never got the ball back) so really the coin flip games they ended up 1-1. I don't see any expected regression from that.

[43M]

On 5/19/2021 at 6:09 PM, BayRaider said:

 

Just curious why you believe the Steelers will finish THAT bad.

I personally wouldnt even mind it, because it might put us in position to get a replacement for Ben next year, or at least another key franchise player.

We have had worst teams that finished with better records in the past.  I get that our division is better, but what exactly makes the Bengals better?   They have a rookie QB coming off a serious injury, playing behind possibly the worst OLine in the league.   Their defense isnt better than ours either.  The Browns and Ravens are good, but I think you are overrating how good.    Im not saying we couldnt finish last, but I think 3rd is more likely with another division win.    Steelers wont get swept by BOTH the Ravens and Browns, either.   There will be at least one win in there.

The Steelers defense should still be pretty good, if healthy.     People act like Dupree was some huge loss, but I think its being overblown.     Our secondary, particularly the corners, are a concern....but they always are.  

On offense...I get it, Ben is not the same Ben he was.     He probably should have retired.   However, the offense, almost by default, should be better than it was late last season.   I get there are questions, but it pretty much cant be worse than it was the last several games.    Ben was coming off of major elbow surgery and was being asked to do too much, and we had probably the worst OC in the league last year, who had no clue what he was doing.      Not that I expect our offense to be good, but if the running game improves at all (which admittedly is still up in the air), Ben can be a semi decent game manager.   You just cant ask him to do what he used to do.

On top of that, despite my grumblings about Tomlin, one of his best qualities is he usually has the team playing well when the odds are stacked against them.    Not many though the Steelers would be that good last year, and Tomlin had them playing great early on.   As soon as people bought into the hype....the team collapsed.    

Barring injury, I see the Steelers finishing with 7 to 10 wins.    That isnt too far from your 5 wins, but the Steelers have yet to have a losing season under Tomlin.  Obviously, that doesnt mean it cant happen....but you have the Steelers finishing with about the 7th worst record in the league, and I just dont see it.       They arent THAT bad.     I feel like people put more emphasis on how we ended the season, without taking into account all the factors that led to the collapse.   Not saying that shouldnt be factored in, but injuries derailed the defense, the OLine couldnt run block at all, we didnt have a dependable RB, our WRs were used horribly because our OC was absolutely clueless, and Ben's arm was just....done (tends to happen when you make a 38 year old QB coming off major elbow surgery throw 600 times).

Bottom line....I dont expect much from the Steelers either, but the Steelers are more talented than 5 wins.   With injuries to some notable players early on....I could see it. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by 43M

[BayRaider]

10 hours ago, 43M said:

Just curious why you believe the Steelers will finish THAT bad.

I personally wouldnt even mind it, because it might put us in position to get a replacement for Ben next year, or at least another key franchise player.

We have had worst teams that finished with better records in the past.  I get that our division is better, but what exactly makes the Bengals better?   They have a rookie QB coming off a serious injury, playing behind possibly the worst OLine in the league.   Their defense isnt better than ours either.  The Browns and Ravens are good, but I think you are overrating how good.    Im not saying we couldnt finish last, but I think 3rd is more likely with another division win.    Steelers wont get swept by BOTH the Ravens and Browns, either.   There will be at least one win in there.

The Steelers defense should still be pretty good, if healthy.     People act like Dupree was some huge loss, but I think its being overblown.     Our secondary, particularly the corners, are a concern....but they always are.  

On offense...I get it, Ben is not the same Ben he was.     He probably should have retired.   However, the offense, almost by default, should be better than it was late last season.   I get there are questions, but it pretty much cant be worse than it was the last several games.    Ben was coming off of major elbow surgery and was being asked to do too much, and we had probably the worst OC in the league last year, who had no clue what he was doing.      Not that I expect our offense to be good, but if the running game improves at all (which admittedly is still up in the air), Ben can be a semi decent game manager.   You just cant ask him to do what he used to do.

On top of that, despite my grumblings about Tomlin, one of his best qualities is he usually has the team playing well when the odds are stacked against them.    Not many though the Steelers would be that good last year, and Tomlin had them playing great early on.   As soon as people bought into the hype....the team collapsed.    

Barring injury, I see the Steelers finishing with 7 to 10 wins.    That isnt too far from your 5 wins, but the Steelers have yet to have a losing season under Tomlin.  Obviously, that doesnt mean it cant happen....but you have the Steelers finishing with about the 7th worst record in the league, and I just dont see it.       They arent THAT bad.     I feel like people put more emphasis on how we ended the season, without taking into account all the factors that led to the collapse.   Not saying that shouldnt be factored in, but injuries derailed the defense, the OLine couldnt run block at all, we didnt have a dependable RB, our WRs were used horribly because our OC was absolutely clueless, and Ben's arm was just....done (tends to happen when you make a 38 year old QB coming off major elbow surgery throw 600 times).

Bottom line....I dont expect much from the Steelers either, but the Steelers are more talented than 5 wins.   With injuries to some notable players early on....I could see it. 

I just went by the schedule, game by game like I always do. 
 

I also had the Steeers winning the AFC North last year by going game by game. Everyone said I was crazy for picking the Steelers, the consensus was like 92% Ravens and “dA RaVeNs aRe dA gReaTeST!!!!”. Well, I was correct. 
 

My reasons?

- Ben’s arm looked toast. I have been a pretty good judge of when arm strength is deteriorating. I said Mannings arm was toast final 5 games of 2014 and he’ll be toast in 2015. I said Brady’s arm was perfectly fine when everyone said it was toast. I said Rivers arm was toast mid way through 2019 which it was. Rivers was purely a no-arm game manager in 2020, watch Wentz do way better. 
 

Ben’s arm looked gone the second half of the season. I currently have him ranked as the 23rd best QB in the league. And the consensus in NFL Comparisons QB Ranking thread is also around that spot. 
 

- Defense is going to regress more than you think. I see them being outside the Top 10 this year. Still good, like 11th or 12th but they will regress. And I hyped their defense up like crazy going into 2020. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense has stayed about the same, and the Browns and Bengals both got better imo. 
 

With that said, you guys should get one of the best QB’s in the draft and be right back in contention in probably 2023. Ben is done. 
 

I even had Steeler fans show me his TD INT ratio. TD/INT ratio is beyond easy to inflate if your YPA is low. Ben’s YPA was an embarrassing 6.2. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by BayRaider

[Trojan]

https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=IwJlLTyyLjSLORSEqR+Ni4TfaPTZZXE09LSqI82e0vec1sw9bZ21FJ3vlWbQuROGypkJYsTgQAGIA
Rodgers SB win with Denver over the 49ers who passed on him #1 overall all those years ago. KC with an almost perfect season and then chokes again a game out from the SB on too much pressure in close situations and tough opponent (Denver w/ Rodgers each time).

Edited May 29, 2021 by Trojan

[FrantikRam]

16 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Ehhh, I wouldn’t say that. Both West Divisions are probably the only two divisions where there isn’t a single “bad” team. 
 

I’d say:

49ers 36%
Rams 27%
Seahawks 24%
Cardinals 13%

Had to get super technical lol. 
 

I’d be slightly surprised if Seattle won the division, but not really. I would legit be pretty surprised if Arizona won the division but not shocked by any means. 

 

 

Arizona isn't a bad team and might be a playoff team - but the three teams ahead of them are too good for them to be able to win the division.

Technically they have a chance, like any team does right now. 

But if you're going to pick the Cards to win the West, might as well pick Miami or NE in the AFCE or the Chargers to win the AFCW - all have similar or better odds to win their divisions than the Cardinals do because they play in possibly the best division in NFL history. 

 

[FrantikRam]

On 5/29/2021 at 12:32 AM, HoboRocket said:

I mean, to be fair, the Cardinals have upgraded across the board this off-season.

That defense had the 4th most sacks in the NFL last season, and that was without Chandler Jones. They're getting him back and adding JJ Watt to the fold. Bringing Dennis Gardeck back after his season ended early, too. More blitzing ability from the LB spot, as well. 

And then they upgraded at LB and in the secondary. Malcolm Butler is an upgrade over Patrick Peterson. Robert Alford is an upgrade over Dre Kirkpatrick. Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons should be an upgrade over Jordan Hicks and DeVondre Campbell. Big and noticeable upgrades for the #3 red-zone defense.

The six biggest holes on the roster heading into the off-season were center, defensive end, #2 wide receiver, #2 cornerback, power back, and kicker. The Cardinals managed to add a Pro Bowler at each position, including All-Pros at C, DE, and WR.

The Cardinals have improved each season since Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury took over.

What's more, the Cardinals didn't have any significant losses this off-season, where it could be argued that the other teams in the NFC West did. I mean, they lost Chandler Jones' back-up. They lost the back-up TE, as well.

But the Rams' #1 defense lost their DC. Of course, they still have AD. But they lost their play-caller, they lost a starting veteran DE, they lost a starting OLB, they lost a starting CB. Luckily for them, Darious Williams is arguably a better player than Troy Hill, but they already had him. Not really sure who's actually going to be replacing Hill. A'Shawn Robinson is objectively worse than Michael Brockers as a leader, as a pass-rusher, and in the run game. Samson Ebukam was arguably their most versatile LB and they already had probably the worst LB corps in the NFL. 

I'm not saying that the Rams' defense is gonna be awful, but I think that dominant D could drop to the bottom of the top-10 or possibly out entirely, while the Cardinals, who were hanging around that 10-12 range, are trending up on defense.

The Cardinals OL is probably better than the Rams' at this point, as well. DJ Humphries continues to get better and better at LT, pushing top-5 status. PFF did have Whitworth rated better as an 88.7 versus Humphries' 88.3 grade. Justin Pugh is better than David Edwards. Rodney Hudson is arguably the best C in the NFL, while you the Rams are currently having Austin Corbett taking snaps at C (though that doesn't necessarily mean that he's the starter there; he could be moved back to guard similar to how Havenstein moved back to RT after briefly switching spots with Jamon Brown prior to the 2017 season). Kelvin Beachum is probably slightly worse than Rob Havenstein, but the tackles are comparable while IOL is much better for the Cards.

QB is a toss-up. Kyler Murray had 37 offensive TDs in 2020 while Matthew Stafford had 26.  If we're talking JUST passing TDs, then they're tied at 26. Murray had a higher completion percentage than Stafford, but lower yards per attempt. They finished very similarly as far as passing numbers go in 2020, but Murray added 819 yards and 11 TDs on the ground at a 6.2 yards per carry clip. 

I guess you could try to argue durability, and while it is true that Murray got hurt in week 16 and played through an injury in week 17, he has yet to miss a game. Stafford has missed 8 games since Kyler Murray entered the NFL.

I don't know. I guess people have the Cards pegged for the worst team in the division, but they had the clearest and cleanest off-season in the division as far as improvements go, and already finished fighting for a playoff spot in week 17. I feel like they have a pretty solid chance to win it. 

 

 

Butler and Alford are not upgrades, c'mon. Alford hasn't played since 2018 and Butler at best will be a push with Peterson.

I do think the Cardinals improved, but if you're going to talk about the Rams you have to be a bit more knowledgeable. We lost one of the best safeties in the NFL and you didn't even mention him.

One of the players you did mention - Ebukam - was basically phased out last year.

Overall I agree that the defense will fall to the bottom of the top 10 though.

But the offense is going to explode.

If you're going to use PFF at all to talk about the OL, you have to be okay with the fact that PFF ranked our OL 3rd in the NFL last year. And we lost our worst OL (Blythe) who constantly allowed the pocket to be pushed in, replacing him with an above average guard in Corbett and replacing him with a prior 3rd round pick Bobby Evans - high chance this OL is better than last year because Blythe is not good.

We had a top 10 run game last year and Akers looked like a franchise RB down the stretch and in the playoffs. The WRs were near the top of the league in yards after catch and we got deeper and more explosive by adding Jackson and Atwell.

The Rams will be better at QB, RB and possibly WR and OL.

I am still waiting for Kyler Murray to play well against the Rams - you can see why it's hard for me to imagine Murray being better than Stafford when Jared Goff outplayed him in all three of their head to head match ups.

I think the Rams are significantly better at RB, better on the OL, and WR is probably a push, although I think Van Jefferson will emerge and the Rams WRs will be better (I recall many saying the Cards WRs were better prior to 2020 but I think the Rams WRs performed better overall).

And better at QB and HC.

 

But that's just one problem for the Cardinals - there are two more where we would be having similar conversations. The Rams and Niners are tied for the 4th best Super Bowl odds right now and Seattle is tied for the 10th best - not sure how many times three teams have had Super Bowl odds that good, but I'm guessing not very often.

 

The Cardinals had the most to upgrade, so I would agree that they did make the biggest jump - but all the Rams made a massive jump with Stafford, Niners if they can stay healthy (big if), and Seattle made several small upgrades while allowing an overrated CB go. The only positions Seattle might be worse at are CB and LB, but they still have Wagner.

 

I'm not saying the Cards will be in last place - it's definitely possible they jump a team or two, and possible one team gets decimated by injury - just that they play in the best division in league history.

[Calamity_Cometh]

17 hours ago, Trojan said:

https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=IwJlLTyyLjSLORSEqR+Ni4TfaPTZZXE09LSqI82e0vec1sw9bZ21FJ3vlWbQuROGypkJYsTgQAGIA
Rodgers SB win with Denver over the 49ers who passed on him #1 overall all those years ago. KC with an almost perfect season and then chokes again a game out from the SB on too much pressure in close situations and tough opponent (Denver w/ Rodgers each time).

What I would give, as a Minnesotan Broncos fan with a Chiefs fan ex girlfriend and a 49er fan friend up in Canada to see this happen.

Would be a dream come true.

[TakeTheBallDeep]

@ET80 Just how bad is the Texans roster? I made a small bet on them with great odds to go 0-17 this year

[ET80]

19 minutes ago, TakeTheBallDeep said:

@ET80 Just how bad is the Texans roster? I made a small bet on them with great odds to go 0-17 this year

Alabama might beat this team.

Good coaches can overcome bad rosters and pull out a few wins. Good rosters can overcome bad coaching and get more than a few wins.

Bad coaching AND a bad roster? Good luck with that.

[BullsandBroncos]

30 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Alabama might beat this team.

Good coaches can overcome bad rosters and pull out a few wins. Good rosters can overcome bad coaching and get more than a few wins.

Bad coaching AND a bad roster? Good luck with that.

Could be worse, Drew Lock could be your QB.

[ET80]

9 minutes ago, BullsandBroncos said:

Could be worse, Drew Lock could be your QB.

Oh no, instead I get to choose between... Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills.

It. IS. Worse.

[stl4life07]

On 5/28/2021 at 8:08 AM, Trentwannabe said:

Closer to the season I’ll post actual records but as for division winners and SB I currently predict this:

Buffalo
Cleveland
KC
Tennessee

Washington
Tampa Bay
Minnesota
Arizona

Tampa Bay over Buffalo in the SB (insert pain.gif)

Not to sound cocky but can Kingsbury get a win over McVay first before anyone pick the Cards to win the division. Clearly Kingsbury is the worst coach in the division and its not like the Cards have a big talent gap over the other teams. At best the division is equal in talent so what separates them is coaching and we all know coaching matters in the NFL. If this was the NBA where its all about the stars then Kingsbury wouldnt matter as much. I dont see Kingsbury winning the division that at least have equal if not more talent on the roster AND have the better coaches. Can the Cards make the playoffs? Yes. They wont win the division until I actually see Kingsbury show he can at least not be the worst coach in the division.

[stl4life07]

On 5/30/2021 at 8:02 AM, FrantikRam said:

 

 

Butler and Alford are not upgrades, c'mon. Alford hasn't played since 2018 and Butler at best will be a push with Peterson.

I do think the Cardinals improved, but if you're going to talk about the Rams you have to be a bit more knowledgeable. We lost one of the best safeties in the NFL and you didn't even mention him.

One of the players you did mention - Ebukam - was basically phased out last year.

Overall I agree that the defense will fall to the bottom of the top 10 though.

But the offense is going to explode.

If you're going to use PFF at all to talk about the OL, you have to be okay with the fact that PFF ranked our OL 3rd in the NFL last year. And we lost our worst OL (Blythe) who constantly allowed the pocket to be pushed in, replacing him with an above average guard in Corbett and replacing him with a prior 3rd round pick Bobby Evans - high chance this OL is better than last year because Blythe is not good.

We had a top 10 run game last year and Akers looked like a franchise RB down the stretch and in the playoffs. The WRs were near the top of the league in yards after catch and we got deeper and more explosive by adding Jackson and Atwell.

The Rams will be better at QB, RB and possibly WR and OL.

I am still waiting for Kyler Murray to play well against the Rams - you can see why it's hard for me to imagine Murray being better than Stafford when Jared Goff outplayed him in all three of their head to head match ups.

I think the Rams are significantly better at RB, better on the OL, and WR is probably a push, although I think Van Jefferson will emerge and the Rams WRs will be better (I recall many saying the Cards WRs were better prior to 2020 but I think the Rams WRs performed better overall).

And better at QB and HC.

 

But that's just one problem for the Cardinals - there are two more where we would be having similar conversations. The Rams and Niners are tied for the 4th best Super Bowl odds right now and Seattle is tied for the 10th best - not sure how many times three teams have had Super Bowl odds that good, but I'm guessing not very often.

 

The Cardinals had the most to upgrade, so I would agree that they did make the biggest jump - but all the Rams made a massive jump with Stafford, Niners if they can stay healthy (big if), and Seattle made several small upgrades while allowing an overrated CB go. The only positions Seattle might be worse at are CB and LB, but they still have Wagner.

 

I'm not saying the Cards will be in last place - it's definitely possible they jump a team or two, and possible one team gets decimated by injury - just that they play in the best division in league history.

The Cards have the talent but they are quickly becoming the Rams under Fisher. A talented team but with poor coaching. Now Fisher obviously had no idea what he was doing on offense. I couldnt even hire someone who knew what they was doing. Kingsbury wake up in the morning to know better than Fisher ever did on offense. When it comes to going up against Carroll, McVay, and Shannahan its clear that Kingsbury for the most part is outmatched and as a result the Cards just arent better than any of those teams. Yes they might win a game or two within the division but going (2-4) in the NFC West isnt going to get team to the top. 

[Chargers]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

Oh no, instead I get to choose between... Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills.

It. IS. Worse.

+ a not so great 2022 QB draft =

It. IS. The. Worst.