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Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 22 - Taco Bowl XXII POSTED!)

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RandyMossIsBoss

RandyMossIsBoss

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Posted

This was all written before week 1 was posted, and is the only division I finished. 3 or 4 other teams of note I already went through as well. May or may not finish this whole thing anyway and just ignore week 1 results, but I don't know... this league moves fast and these took a lot longer than I thought.

 

RMIB's S22 Preview    RMIB's S22 Red Division Preview

 

Welcome everybody to the first, and probably last, RMIB season preview. Since this is an even number season, player performance is not the same unpredictable variable it is during odd seasons, making it much easier in theory to predict how S22 will play out. For that reason, I will be relying pretty heavily on S21 results, looking at them and essentially seeing whether that team has gotten better, worse, or about the same, along with how the rest of their division changed. All S21 records listed are team's pwny records, courtesy of TK3, since those somewhat account for RNG luck and provide a more reliable baseline.

 

Below are some methods to my madness which can be skipped if you just want to see the previews:

For the skill position units, I am pretty comfortable just looking at sim stats to form basis of my upgrade/downgrade opinion. There are not many different ways to view those numbers... but everyone else? I've decided that I'll give each owner and the league at whole the benefit of the doubt that they know what they're doing, thus if I'm looking at S21 and S22 OL, and the pancakes/sacks/stuffs are pretty similar, but in S22 that team invested much more draft capital in their OL than in S21, I'm gonna say that unit has improved. I say the league too, because I am more or less deferring to the league to tell me which player is better by look at draft position. Far from a flawless approach, especially with 2 new GMs on the loose, but it saves me a lot of time, and particularly hurts those veteran shrewds who make their living on 12th round "steals". If I feel the league really got it wrong and over or under drafted a guy, I'll say something, this isn't a hard and fast rule, just my general approach.

 

No color= Insignificant/inconclusive whether unit upgraded/downgraded.

Green= Clearly improved.

Red= Clearly got worse.

OR= pwny offensive rank

DR= pwny defensive rank

 

Cheesy Conference

Red Division

Reykjavík Direwolves (Owner: Tk3)
Reykjav%25C3%25ADk+Direwolves.gif
S21 Results: 10.3-5.7 (2nd) | Lost in Divisional

  • OR: 1
  • DR: 15

QB: --

Backfield: I think you lose a little bit at backup going from Mostert to unknown Hines.

Receiving: The WR talent on this team is a level above where it was at in S21. Pairing a top 10ish WR in Diggs with Keenan Allen, while also grabbing one of the most productive #3 WRs in Aiyuk. Now TE gets a little tricky, as a steady sim TE in Cooks has been replaced with an underperforming sim WR in Sutton. Risky move, maybe unprecedented? Downgrade to me, but not enough to offset WR upgrades.

OL: Brought back both tackles. Upgraded at center by grabbed an upper tier C in Hudson to replace a lower end C in Roullier. The guard spots is where there is a big loss, losing Brooks (3rd OG drafted) and replacing him with a pair of tackle to guard converts. TK3 did this in S21 with Wirfs, and it didn't seem to work very well. Granted, Wirfs was perhaps just not good in this sim yet. Dawkins and Humphries were both respectable S21 tackles, and I'll assume neither will be as bad as Wirfs but neither will be as good as Brooks. Improve at C, get worse at 1 G spot, it's a wash here.

Front 7: DT Tuitt and DE Z'Darius are the only returners to Direwolve's front 7. At the other DE spot we've gone from Crosby to Dunlap. Dunlap was out of position at 3-4 DE in S21 so his porous numbers need to be taken with grain of salt. Whether downgrade or upgrade, it's insignificant. At other DT spot it's a different story, as the likely to be undrafted Autry is replaced by Cameron Heyward, taken in the 2nd round and productive in the same role TK3 plans to use him at. Direwolves's have new names at LB, but I would expect similar production as it's another ragtag group of late round LBs. Front 7 definitely did not get worse, and maybe improved.

DBs: At CB the Direwolves' lost defensive MVP Janoris Jenkins and Kareem Jackson (4th), replacing them with Bryce Callahan (6th) and sim unknown Donte Jackson. I think Callahan is more or less equal to Jackson, but that leaves us going from Janoris to Donte Jackson which is a big downgrade. Safety sees the Direwolves losing Devin McCourty (2nd), Anthony Harris (5th) and their combined 201 tackles, 44 coverages, 4 sacks and 4 TOs, and replacing them with Micah Hyde (7th), who produced similarly, and Quandre Diggs (7th), who did not. Could argue all 4 spots got worse here. 

ST: Same punter, same STC, but going from Gano to Butker? Big upgrade, albeit at one of the least important groups here. 

Coaching: Sean Payton to Sean McDermott is the story here. Interesting move, Payton is "proven" in this sim and gives as good boosts to offense as any coach, but going after a HC that will instead boost the defense was a good call.

One of the league's best offenses got even better. While the D got worse with the downgrades in the secondary. The only saving grace is perhaps the defensive minded HC boosts the D enough to not get worse? Is that even how it works? Who knows. I think Wolves will once again be in playoff hunt as they always are, whether they take the next step comes down to whether the addition of Diggs, and a possibly improved OL, makes the offense go from great to unstoppable. 

Prediction: 10-6



South Africa Woolly Mammoths (Owner: MookieMonstah)
y3PdFX1.png

S21 Results: 5-11 (4th)

  • OR: 15
  • DR: 17

QB: --

Backfield: --

Receiving: Only returning Kupp, but not losing any major pieces either. That is to say, the unit remains pretty underwhelming for S22, but it doesn't seem to matter with Brady at QB.

OL: Massively upgraded, as you'd expect for a team that spent 1st 3 picks on OL. Clearly a shift in approach, as last year's OL seemed to consist entirely of double digit round guys. Duane and Lane on the outside, Thuney and Mason on the inside, with McCoy at center. This is probably a top 5 OL, quite the change after a bottom 5 OL.

Front 7: DL could be a little better, but remains a below average. LBs are worse-off. Going from Warner (2nd), Deion Jones (4th) and Preston Smith (11th) to 3 LBs drafted round 14 or later. This front 7 was drafted purely on S22 results it would seem. A lot of names who are irrelevant IRL, but still productive in the sim, fell and the Mammoth took advantage of that. This group isn't as bad as draft capital invested would indicate, but it's still gone from weak to weaker. 

DBs: Star CB duo and Gardner-Johnson return, with the lone change being Ronnie Harrison to John Johnson, which is certainly an upgrade.

ST: --

Coaching: Massive upgrade from Kirby Smart, Kellen Moore and Josh Boyer to Sean Payton, Kliff Kingsbury and Brian Flores. Mammoth invested heavy into their staff and it looks to be top 5 at least.

The offense should be much better. Going from bottom tier OL and coaches to top tier and remaining steady elsewhere. The defense shouldn't be worse, maybe improves but not much. Overall, Mammoth are better, offense could be very good if pass game continues to be very good regardless of weapons, but I don't see enough change to think they could go from a 5-10-1 to the 10 wins likely needed for a playoff berth, but we'll see. Comes down to that OL and the importance of it in this sim. No greater case would be made for it's value than a playoff run for the Mammoth here.

 

Prediction: 8-8

 

 

Rio de Janeiro Pirates (Owner: RuskieTitan)
UHUlZjJ.png

S21 Results: 11.1-4.9 (1st) | Taco Bowl Champion

  • OR: 4
  • DR: 7

QB: --

Backfield: Going from MGIII and Drake, both of whom were highly productive behind a great OL, to an RB2 in Ekeler and Damien Harris who was not in the league. Now we are dealing with 2 unknowns here with Ekeler in the RB1 role and Harris, but it's fair to say this group got worse. Pirates clearly believe their OL and pass game threat will allow any shmucks at RB to produce, and maybe they are right.

Receiving: The only change is Fant to Kittle. Perhaps we've reached a point of diminishing returns here, as Fant had nearly 900 yards himself, but a clear upgrade nonetheless. 

OL: Pirates lose 4 of the 5 linemen that made up one of the league's best in S21. At tackle they are replacing Whitworth (1st) and Lewan (4th) with Jedrick (7th) and McGlinchey (8th). At the other guard spot they replaced DeCastro (traded) with Damien Lewis (12th). At center, Pouncey retired, and the Pirates grabbed Ben Jones (9th). Worth noting, the lone returning player, Zack Martin, was perhaps the weakest S21 performer on that great line. Could still be a respectable line, but should certainly be worse.

Front 7: 3 of the 7 are returned to this front. No major losses, as this unit didn't have any particularly big names to begin with. To pair with Suh on the DL and replace Chubb (3rd), Hughes (14th) and Payne (11th) are Sweat (3rd), Griffen (6th) and Wolfe (12th). I do think Sweat was drafted so high in large part due to his upside as a keeper, but it's still fair to say the Pirates improved a little bit on the DL. Only change at LB is Harold Landry (2nd) for Cory Littleton (15th).... Again, Landry was drafted that high for the keeper potential, but he was the Pirate's best LB in S21 so this is a downgrade at LB. Overall, I'd expect similar results from this front 7, as the DL was once again given heavy priority over the LBs.

DBs: Both safeties were returned, while both CBs were lost. Losing Shaquill Griffin (12th) and WJIII (3rd), while gaining Kyle Fuller (5th), Dunbar (14th). I'll say it's another push here, I'd expect the D to be just as good as it surprisingly was last year (which I say because on paper, it doesn't seem particularly good).

ST: --

Coaching: Good coaches last year, good coaches this year.

The offense is worse. Kittle, as dynamic as he is IRL, does not offset the big downgrade at OL, especially if you consider him only a marginal improvement over Fant in the sim. The backfield, while downgraded, doesn't concern me, but is all the more reason to expect this offense to take a step back. However, Mahomes is still the QB with a great group of WRs, and now Kittle, so the floor still feels to be top 10 offense. The defense is more or less the same, and seems to have been built with same strategy as S21's. Pirates will be good, but I don't expect another repeat unless we see all you need is an adequate OL, not necessarily a great one, to allow that offense to be elite.

Prediction: 

10-6



Hanoi Viet Kongs (Owner: ravens5520)
6O8y1z8.png

S21 Results: 8.6-7.4 (3rd)

  • OR: 16
  • DR: 3

QB: QB has changed from Rivers to Burrow, but those QBs played very similarly in S21. 

Backfield: Losing Taylor is a big loss in terms of value, but for S22 performance? Mostert will fill in that RB2 role just fine. Ricard to Boyle is a clear downgrade at FB but I'm not gonna red text this unit over FB. 

Receiving: Returning Hopkins. At TE the Kong go from Goedert to Ertz, a slight upgrade for sure. They both played very close in production for S21 but Ertz is reliable in that you know his S21 was no product of RNG luck. The WR2 and WR3 spots see Hollywood Brown and Sutton replaced by Robert Woods and Watkins. Woods had a rough S21, but it seems more likely a fluke and result of his surroundings than anything else, so I think WR2 saw a big upgrade. Sutton has been buried at WR3 for ages, did the Kong have a vendetta against him playing even Brown over him? It'll be nice to see what he brings as a WR2... oh wait he's a TE now in NSFL. Anyway, WR3 is always pretty negligent, seems you get what you get almost regardless of who is there, but obviously give me Sutton over Sammy in WR3 role any day, so yes it's a downgrade, but not too impactful. The slight TE boost and major WR2 upgrade push me to call this unit upgraded.

OL: Only Tyron Smith is back. Havenstein (11th) replaces Wagner (10th) at the other T spot. Brandon Brooks (4th) and Incognito (11th) replace Marpet (6th) and Damien Lewis (12th). Matt Paradis (10th) replaces Ben Jones (9th). I think this unit probably improved, but certainly not by any significant amount. 

Front 7: Both 3-4 DEs are back, with the sole change at the line being DJ Reader (14th) replacing Brandon Williams (9th). Only returning Mosley in the LB group. Adding Clowney (3rd), Paye (12th) and Queen (9th) to replace Kerrigan (1st), Suggs (10th) and Thomas Davis (UDFA). Remains a strong front, but if we call Clowney for Kerrigan a wash, we still see productive vets like Suggs, Davis and Williams being replaced by unproven guys like Queen, Paye and Reader. I think this front is worse off in S22, but better suited for future with potential keepers in Queen and Paye. 

DBs: Humphrey returns at CB, Haden (5th) is lost but Kareem Jackson (4th) is gained. Both safeties, Jenkins (11th) and John Johnson (4th) are gone but in comes Minkah (trade) and Savage (8th).  

ST: Lost the GOAT at kicker. 

Coaching: Went from a decent staff that had draft capital invested to Brian Billick at HC. 

I think the offense has improved with the addition of some better weapons, but not enough to make it necessarily good. If it was a below average unit in S21, I could see it rise to being an average at best unit in S22. The front 7 got a little worse, while the DBs got a little better. Unless the D achieved the #3 rank in S21 by RNG luck, I don't see why they wouldn't remain a big strength for this team and one of the better Ds in the league. This is definitely a team that can make the playoffs, and I'd say could fall anywhere between 8 and 11 wins. If they only hit 8 wins or are worse, I think the Coaching and ST neglect would be to blame.

Prediction: 9-7



Lancaster Fighting Amish (Owner: JoshstraDaymus)
n0XFSHP.gif

S21 Results: 3.4-12.6 (5th)

  • OR: 19
  • DR: 19

QB: Went from Baker Mayfield to Trey Lance. Going from any QB to a rookie, considered to be very raw, is rough. Baker was a little below average in this sim, but was still above the threshold of "can you win with him?" Big drop-off at most important position for S22.

Backfield: --

Receiving: --

OL: Linsley and Schweitzer both return. At tackle, Fisher (14th) and Wills (7th) were replaced by Sewell (2nd)* and Tunsil (3rd). Gonna start putting an * for the young guys whose stock was influenced by their keeper potential. For S22, Sewell probably plays like a league average tackle at best? Hard to say, but either way I think OT spots have been upgraded. At guard, Hernandez (UDFA) was replaced by Gabe Jackson (6th). Not sure if this unit will be good, but they're definitely much improved.

Front 7: 1 DL and 2 LB return to this front 7. Big losses on the DL with Hunter (1st) and Heyward (2nd) leaving along with Shelby Harris (9th). In their places are Yannick (4th), Okwara (8th) and Derek Barnett (18th). At LB, Amish swap out Myles Jack (12th) for Jaylon Smith (7th). An already strong LB group gets a bit stronger, but the DL takes a significant hit. This front 7 definitely lost some juice.

DBs: Returning just Carlton Davis. That last CB spot now belongs to Darby (9th) who will replace Dunbar (14th). At Safety the Amish lose Hyde (7th) and Xavier Woods (UDFA), and add Karl Joseph (13th) and Kamren Curl (5th)*. This porous unit definitely did not get better, but arguably not much worse.

ST: --

Coaching: --

Clearly a rebuilding team that is prioritizing young talent and finding a good set of keepers. As a result, I'd expect another very rough year for the Amish. Trey Lance, if he plays all 16 games, could be the difference between 0-16 and 4-12, as it's a total unknown how he'll be in year 1 of the sim. I'd guess somewhere in the middle, he'll be the worst starting QB in the sim but not so awful you can't win games with him.

 

Prediction: 2-14

 

 

 

Red Division

  1. Reykjavík Direwolves (10-6) xy
  2. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (10-6) x
  3. Hanoi Viet Kongs (9-7)
  4. South Africa Woolly Mammoths (8-8)
  5. Lancaster Fighting Amish (2-14)
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Tk3

Tk3

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Posted

The amount of detail and effort is fantastic

I wish I could give you more than just a football for that post

Would love to see the rest, but fully understand not wanting to take all the time

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TL-TwoWinsAway

TL-TwoWinsAway

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Posted

So, question, because new guy keeps being dumb: if I start Pitts for the full regular season, and, say, two other veterans for only 7 games, can I only keep two of those three players for 1 tag? Or is it [X] rookies and [X] veterans with at least one game - but fewer than eight?

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Tk3

Tk3

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Posted
Just now, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

So, question, because new guy keeps being dumb: if I start Pitts for the full regular season, and, say, two other veterans for only 7 games, can I only keep two of those three players for 1 tag? Or is it [X] rookies and [X] veterans with at least one game - but fewer than eight?

The criteria is any rookie who plays any amount of games, or any player who starts between 1 and 7 games and spends the rest on PS

You get a total of 2 of those players for 1 tag. It can be 2 rookies, it can be 1 rookie and 1 player who plays a few games, or it can be 2 plays who play a few games

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TL-TwoWinsAway

TL-TwoWinsAway

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Posted
Just now, Tk3 said:

The criteria is any rookie who plays any amount of games, or any player who starts between 1 and 7 games and spends the rest on PS

You get a total of 2 of those players for 1 tag. It can be 2 rookies, it can be 1 rookie and 1 player who plays a few games, or it can be 2 plays who play a few games

Got it. Greatly appreciated.

And here I am, thinking I can get 7-8 near-elite players on one tag for next year. Like you guys wouldn't have thought about that one during (checks thread title) season 20-freaking-2.

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Tk3

Tk3

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Posted
14 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Got it. Greatly appreciated.

And here I am, thinking I can get 7-8 near-elite players on one tag for next year. Like you guys wouldn't have thought about that one during (checks thread title) season 20-freaking-2.

PS players who do NOT play at all do not count toward that limit

So there's definitely a little bit of gaming the system, but no, not a total gaming

I think the most you could do is draft 5 players early and put them all on PS, then have a bunch of high level 1 tag keepers. But the payoff of these type of moves are a little low

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TL-TwoWinsAway

TL-TwoWinsAway

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

PS players who do NOT play at all do not count toward that limit

So there's definitely a little bit of gaming the system, but no, not a total gaming

I think the most you could do is draft 5 players early and put them all on PS, then have a bunch of high level 1 tag keepers. But the payoff of these type of moves are a little low

Yeah, makes tons of sense. Definitely seems situational.

Just glad I figured this out now and not at the start of next year.

Edited by TL-TwoWinsAway
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