Tk3 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I ain't never tagged a man after his loss, tbh If you wanna do a gg, just don't tag them. they'll still see it eventually 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 32 minutes ago, Scoundrel said: Keep that small wiener energy Tammy. Never change I was never great at biology but I’m pretty sure Tammy’s have different parts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Scoundrel said: Let me know when you regenerate some brain cells so we can have a real conversation. Stop wasting my time by quoting me. Das crazy mang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, El Ramster said: Das crazy mang I said regenerate not lose more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 9 hours ago, Tk3 said: I ain't never tagged a man after his loss, tbh If you wanna do a gg, just don't tag them. they'll still see it eventually See, I saw tagging happen right away (week 1) and thought it was just the way things were done here. It's good to know that that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 50 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: See, I saw tagging happen right away (week 1) and thought it was just the way things were done here. It's good to know that that's not the case. no, you're right.. it IS the way things are done here but people have been saying for a while that it feels like it spoils, so I don't do it.. if people don't like it, and many don't, I hope that people broadly stop doing it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 gg Glen (I don't know whether to tag or not to tag.. thanks guys!) Up 24-10 and then another offensive meltdown and a close win. This is a regular occurrence with my team (unless we're getting blown out). However, this is what what I wanted to see. My boy, Trey Sermon, performed well enough as RB2; big game from Hock and Chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: gg Glen (I don't know whether to tag or not to tag.. thanks guys!) Up 24-10 and then another offensive meltdown and a close win. This is a regular occurrence with my team (unless we're getting blown out). However, this is what what I wanted to see. My boy, Trey Sermon, performed well enough as RB2; big game from Hock and Chase. I think I took Sermon for granted. (And, well, wanted to go in a different direction, but still.) He plays really well as a RB2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 28 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: gg Glen (I don't know whether to tag or not to tag.. thanks guys!) Up 24-10 and then another offensive meltdown and a close win. This is a regular occurrence with my team (unless we're getting blown out). However, this is what what I wanted to see. My boy, Trey Sermon, performed well enough as RB2; big game from Hock and Chase. your win meant a lot to me. and it was a major upset! it changed things from "I have to beat the Mammoths W15 to control my own fate" to "I have to win EITHER game to (mostly) control my own fate" putting me in a position jump the Royals via our H2H, regardless of week 15 outcome, is huge for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tk3 said: your win meant a lot to me. and it was a major upset! it changed things from "I have to beat the Mammoths W15 to control my own fate" to "I have to win EITHER game to (mostly) control my own fate" putting me in a position jump the Royals via our H2H, regardless of week 15 outcome, is huge for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 (edited) Here's the way I see it the rest of the way Hanoi Viet Kongs 12-2 Exp Wins 13.5 Playoff odds Clinched Little Rock Uni Royals 9-5 Exp Wins 10.1 Playoff odds 97% Reykjavik Direwolves 9-5 Exp Wins 10.1 Playoff odds 84% Norway Knights 8-6 Exp Wins 9.2 Playoff odds 74% South Africa Woolly Mammoths 8-6 Exp Wins 8.8 Playoff odds 43% Anchorage Moose 7-7 Exp Wins 8.3 Playoff odds 2% Rio de Janeiro Pirates 5-9 Exp Wins 6.5 Playoff odds eliminated Chicago Fire 5-9 Exp Wins 5.7 Playoff odds eliminated Tacoma Thunder 4-10 Exp Wins 4.6 Playoff odds eliminated Lancaster Amish 2-12 Exp Wins 2.4 Playoff odds eliminated Nassau Seawolves 11-3 Exp Wins 12.2 Playoff odds Clinched Indianapolis Predators 10-4 Exp Wins 11.2 Playoff odds Clinched Rocket City Trash Pandas 9-5 Exp Wins 10.1 Playoff odds 96% Phoenix Rattlers 8-6 Exp Wins 9.2 Playoff odds 71% Providence Patricias 7-7 Exp Wins 7.9 Playoff odds 19% Egypt Starfalls 7-7 Exp Wins 8.0 Playoff odds 14% Freiburg Venom 6-8 Exp Wins 7.1 Playoff odds <1% Scranton Papermakers 6-8 Exp Wins 6.7 Playoff odds <1% Richmond Flying Squirrels 4-10 Exp Wins 46 Playoff odds eliminated Antarctica Penguin Poppers 3-11 Exp Wins 3.7 Playoff odds eliminated These are my best effort attempts at playoff paths Royals In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND as the Mammoths don't win out Direwolves In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND the Knights win at least one game Knights Win out OR win 1 game AND Mammoths lose 1 game OR win 1 game AND Direwolves lose both OR win 1 game AND Royals lose both OR Mammoths and Moose both lose out Mammoths Win out OR Beat Direwolves AND Direwolves lose final game OR win 1 game AND Knights lose out Moose Win out AND Knights lose out AND Mammoths lose out (might be some tiebreakers that also work if either of those teams win once, that I haven't identified, depending on which game they win and which they lose) Caveats In a 4 way tie at 10-6 for seeds 2-5 (very unlikely), I believe it is the Direwolves who miss out (Knights would take divison/2 seed via H2H with Royals), then in a 3 way tie for the #3 spot, I believe Mammoths would first knock out Direwolves, which would then allow the Royals to take 3 seed via H2H with Mammoths.. Then Mammoths would take 4 seed via H2H with Direwolves ((lots of I THINKS in there)) In a 4 way tie at 9-7 for seeds 3-6, I have absolutely no idea what happens and don't want to think about it until after wee see week 15 games Pandas In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND Starfalls win out AND Rattlers win out Rattlers Beat Providence OR Beat Squirrels AND Nassau beats Providence Week 16 (I think) Patricias Win Out OR Beat Rattlers AND Rattlers lose out AND Starfall lose out AND neither of the 6-8s win out Starfalls Win Out AND Rattlers don't win out OR Win Out AND Providence doesn't win out Venom/Papermakers Win Out AND Rattlers lose out AND Starfalls don't win out AND Providence doesn't win out AND tiebreakers fall in the right way I don't want to deal with this this week, if things line up such in Week 15 that they are still in it, I'll try to work it out then Caveats In those 9-7 scenarios, if the Pandas lose out and cause 3 or more way ties, then the above may not be 100% correct Those are best efforts at playoff paths.. Hopefully I don't give anyone hope that ends up being inaccurate, but I think its at least mostly correct, barring perfect storms of unexpected teams working their way into tiebreakers that muddy it all Please correct me if you see snags in any of this Edited August 9, 2021 by Tk3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKillerNacho Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Tk3 said: Here's the way I see it the rest of the way Hanoi Viet Kongs 12-2 Exp Wins 13.5 Playoff odds Clinched Little Rock Uni Royals 9-5 Exp Wins 10.1 Playoff odds 97% Reykjavik Direwolves 9-5 Exp Wins 10.1 Playoff odds 84% Norway Knights 8-6 Exp Wins 9.2 Playoff odds 74% South Africa Woolly Mammoths 8-6 Exp Wins 8.8 Playoff odds 43% Anchorage Moose 7-7 Exp Wins 8.3 Playoff odds 2% Rio de Janeiro Pirates 5-9 Exp Wins 6.5 Playoff odds eliminated Chicago Fire 5-9 Exp Wins 5.7 Playoff odds eliminated Tacoma Thunder 4-10 Exp Wins 4.6 Playoff odds eliminated Lancaster Amish 2-12 Exp Wins 2.4 Playoff odds eliminated Nassau Seawolves 11-3 Exp Wins 12.2 Playoff odds Clinched Indianapolis Predators 10-4 Exp Wins 11.2 Playoff odds Clinched Rocket City Trash Pandas 9-5 Exp Wins 10.1 Playoff odds 96% Phoenix Rattlers 8-6 Exp Wins 9.2 Playoff odds 71% Providence Patricias 7-7 Exp Wins 7.9 Playoff odds 19% Egypt Starfalls 7-7 Exp Wins 8.0 Playoff odds 14% Freiburg Venom 6-8 Exp Wins 7.1 Playoff odds <1% Scranton Papermakers 6-8 Exp Wins 6.7 Playoff odds <1% Richmond Flying Squirrels 4-10 Exp Wins 46 Playoff odds eliminated Antarctica Penguin Poppers 3-11 Exp Wins 3.7 Playoff odds eliminated These are my best effort attempts at playoff paths Royals In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND as the Mammoths don't win out Direwolves In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND the Knights win at least one game Knights Win out OR win 1 game AND Mammoths lose 1 game OR win 1 game AND Direwolves lose both OR win 1 game AND Royals lose both OR Mammoths and Moose both lose out Mammoths Win out OR Beat Direwolves AND Direwolves lose final game OR win 1 game AND Knights lose out Moose Win out AND Knights lose out AND Mammoths lose out (might be some tiebreakers that also work if either of those teams win once, that I haven't identified, depending on which game they win and which they lose) Caveats In a 4 way tie at 10-6 for seeds 2-5 (very unlikely), I believe it is the Direwolves who miss out (Knights would take divison/2 seed via H2H with Royals), then in a 3 way tie for the #3 spot, I believe Mammoths would first knock out Direwolves, which would then allow the Royals to take 3 seed via H2H with Mammoths.. Then Mammoths would take 4 seed via H2H with Direwolves ((lots of I THINKS in there)) In a 4 way tie at 9-7 for seeds 3-6, I have absolutely no idea what happens and don't want to think about it until after wee see week 15 games Pandas In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND Starfalls win out AND Rattlers win out Rattlers Beat Providence OR Beat Squirrels AND Nassau beats Providence Week 16 (I think) Patricias Win Out OR Beat Rattlers AND Rattlers lose out AND Starfall lose out AND neither of the 6-8s win out Starfalls Win Out AND Rattlers don't win out OR Win Out AND Providence doesn't win out Venom/Papermakers Win Out AND Rattlers lose out AND Starfalls don't win out AND Providence doesn't win out AND tiebreakers fall in the right way I don't want to deal with this this week, if things line up such in Week 15 that they are still in it, I'll try to work it out then Caveats In those 9-7 scenarios, if the Pandas lose out and cause 3 or more way ties, then the above may not be 100% correct Those are best efforts at playoff paths.. Hopefully I don't give anyone hope that ends up being inaccurate, but I think its at least mostly correct, barring perfect storms of unexpected teams working their way into tiebreakers that muddy it all Please correct me if you see snags in any of this Yeah this is why I stopped trying to figure out playoff scenarios except maybe in the last week. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Tk3 said: Pandas In, as long as they DON'T lose out AND Starfalls win out AND Rattlers win out I think the likelihood of this happening is way larger than 4% I have the Knights and the Starfalls left. The Rattlers have the Patricias and the Squirrels The Starfalls have the Poppers and me. The way my team is playing down the stretch, I see the probability of this scenario occurring much higher than what you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 @TL-TwoWinsAway Imma need you to help a guy out this week and get that W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tk3 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said: I think the likelihood of this happening is way larger than 4% I have the Knights and the Starfalls left. The Rattlers have the Patricias and the Squirrels The Starfalls have the Poppers and me. The way my team is playing down the stretch, I see the probability of this scenario occurring much higher than what you have it maybe.. my elo says you have a 20% chance of losing both. 45% underdog to Knights, 63% favorite vs the Starfall Rattlers have about a 37% chance of winning both (57% favorite vs Patricias, 65% favorite vs Squirrels) Starfall have 59% chance of beating the Poppers (their game against you is already built into your 20% chance of losing out) Considering those are all "and"s, its 20%*37%*59% which is where the 4% came from Stranger things have happened, but that's the mechanics under the hood of that number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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