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What Head Coach do you predict will be the first to be fired this year?


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People saying McCarthy do realize that Dak is gonna allow that guy to keep his job in a weak division the same way Rodgers did for all those years, right?

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Posted (edited)
On 5/29/2021 at 6:40 PM, CP3MVP said:

He reminds me of Don Shula in the 90’s TBH. The game had mostly passed him by but is still winning based of the greatness of the QB. The Seahawks haven’t made it out of the divisional round in over 5 years 

Not a snowball’s chance in hell Pete Carroll is anything like Don Shula.

 

Just stop.  

Edited by RamblinMan99
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On 5/31/2021 at 5:20 PM, Mr Raider said:

I agree with everything you're saying. I won't pretend to watch every Bears game, but I live in the Midwest and stay current with most NFL teams more than the average fan. 

I won't pretend to know everything about Naggy and his coaching abilities in terms of making adjustments, strategy, being a leader of men, having schemes that fit the players strengths, etc. From what I do know I don't think Naggy is a BAD head coach. Mitch was clearly a bust, but he wasn't nearly as awful will some make him out to be, just in the sense that you could clearly win games with him at a certain level (reaching the playoffs multiple times) and when you factor in how much Mitch did struggle and the biggest thing being the guys taken after him it's fair to say he was a bust. But if he's as awful as some say it could actually be a testament to Naggys abilities to navigate a lack of great QB play and still compete. Obviously the defense is a big part, but Naggy still put the staff together so he can't be given zero credit. Now that doesn't let Pace off the hook and it doesn't show that Naggy is great at developing young talent at the QB position. I'm just saying its nuanced. 

I don't think Naggy is as bad a HC as a lot seem to. I don't think he's a great HC, but like all coaches he has strengths and weaknesses. I personally wasn't much of a fan of Trubisky. I had Watson as the clear cut #1 QB and thought he was worthy of the first overall pick (was actually relieved when the Chiefs took Mahomes over him at the time lol because Mahomes was a really confusing prospect for me to evaluate). Since I wasn't a fan because I thought he lacked in the areas I put the most weight on for an NFL QB (accuracy, processing, decision making, how fast you are at making decisions and reading the field, and a big one for me is starting experience at the NFL level. I typically don't think highly of prospects that didn't see at least a couple of years of college starting experience with success and growth. So I don't put as much fault on Naggy for Mitch being what he was, not as much as some seem to. I don't know enough about his offensive scheme and what it's trying to accomplish and what is most important. But Fields is a guy I absolutely love as a prospect, significantly more than Mitch. He was a guy I would argue in most seasons would be well worth the first overall selection. 

Thinking that highly of him makes me feel better about Naggy's chances of surviving the former high picked QB and sticking around after getting a second crack at it (rare for most coaches to get that opportunity). Again I can't speak to how perfectly Fields fits the specific scheme but he has all the physical tools like Mitch did, but is significantly better at the non measurable things. So Naggy should have a leg up if my evaluation is right in terms of engineering a successful offense..

Ultimately Naggy still does have a hot seat, and that's understandable and deserving. Pace should have a much hotter seat IMO. In the end, like it does for a lot of coaches, Naggy's success and how much more time he has in Chicago will be effected most by the QB play. If Fields is what I think, Naggy will be able to show things he may not have been able to with Mitch. If Fields struggles, it will be a big indictment (fair or not) on his ability to coach young QBs and help highly thought of prospects reach franchise QB status. And honestly, most guys don't get back to back chances with 2 top 11 pick QBs, so if Fields looks bad it will be really damaging for the head coach. I'm not sure there is a worse X you can have on your report card than that. 

The good news is, I think Fields is in a good situation (not Mahomes good or anything) but much better than 90% of prospects of his caliber get. And Naggy may be able to navigate around the past failures in large part because of that. 

Nagy's seat is probably lukewarm at best right now.  Before they drafted Fields I would agree it was starting to heat up, but there is near universal agreement that Fields has probably bought Nagy at least 2 years.  And truthfully he has been a good HC, no losing records, playoffs 2 of 3 years.  What makes Nagy's seat warm at all is just the offensive performance, which is supposed to be his specialty.  He is very much like young Andy Reid in that way.  Often ignores the run game for incredibly long stretches of games, will get too cute at times with the calls.  It's not a coincidence that the Bears avg 33 pts per game for the 5 game stretch to end the year with Bill Lazor calling the plays.  He showed much more commitment to the run game, which Monty was the Bears best player on offense last year.  But ultimately I would say there isnt a snowball's chance in hell that Nagy is fired midseason.

Now let's talk about Pace.  Paces seat is ice cold.  Pace is by far the best drafter in Bears history, and one of the best in the league.  He has drafted multiple all pros and probowlers and has a just an incredible track record after the 1st round.  The 1st round has been his bugaboo, but even that hasnt been crippling bc of rookie contracts.  He has paid some bad money, but he pretty much always gives himself an out in a contract.  We dont know what the contractual status bc the Bears have been very coy about it, rumor when they signed Nagy was Pace signed an extension to align him with Nagy.  But most importantly, the McCaskeys love him. They have opened up their pocketbooks in ways they havent before to allow him to do things like use a $1B to renovate Halas Hall to bring it into the 21st century.  He is probably the driving force behind a potential move to Arlington Heights to build their own state of the art football palace.  It is more likely that Pace is promoted upstairs to team President next year than it is hes fired.  Pace will be in Chicago as long as he wants to and the McCaskeys own the team.

All that said if the Bears are sold, well then all bets are off.

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I'm trying to think and here are my thoughts on the "obvious" candidates:

Zac Taylor - I can't see him getting fired this year unless the team is just awful, which I don't think will be the case with Burrow coming back and how many weapons they have on offense. If, however, the offense is horrible, I do think he gets fired maybe late in the season (game 9 or 10?).

Matt Nagy - This, to me, is the most obvious choice. However, the wrinkle here is how many times are head coaches fired midway through a rookie QB's season? I think the Bears give Nagy at least one year with Fields, but I think Nagy could accelerate his firing by not playing Fields and losing with Andy Dalton - but I think Nagy would eventually bench Dalton for Fields before allowing himself to get fired for riding with Dalton.

Mike McCarthy - I don't think McCarthy goes this year. He had a horrible hand dealt to him with Dalton last year (though, remember everyone saying the Cowboys had the best backup QB in the league?) but having Dak back should at least secure him one more year.

Vic Fangio - I could definitely see Fangio getting fired. The Broncos don't have a future QB on their roster and without landing Aaron Rodgers, I don't see a reason to keep Fangio if the Broncos are last place in the AFCW at game 8 or so.

Mike Zimmer - The only way I see this happening is if he loses the locker room, which I'm not sure is even remotely a possibility. However, for a defensive guy, the Vikings' defense is pretty underwhelming as a whole. Again, the only way I see Zimmer getting fired is if the team completely implodes.

So, with all of that being said I think the best bet is Vic Fangio. The rest of the guys on this list sans Zimmer have some "plot armor" pieces around them that can extend their job life by maybe a year. Fangio doesn't have that unless the Broncos trade for Aaron Rodgers. In that event, I would switch it to Zac Taylor simply because if the Bengals are winless after 6-9 games or only have 1 win at 9-10 games, they should definitely fire that guy.

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2 hours ago, RamblinMan99 said:

Not a snowball’s chance in hell Pete Carroll is anything like Don Shula.

 

Just stop.  

I watched shula in the 90’s and that’s what Pete is right now 

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Candidates I can see:

Kinsbury- AZ, McCarthy- DAL, Taylor-CIN, Nagy- CHI, Fangio- DEN, Zimmer- MIN

If I had to pick a "shortest leash/hottest seat", probably Kingsbury for the whole season. But I'd say Fangio would be the most likely to go first. 

Kingsbury has some high expectations, but the division is tough as nails and they've been re-tooling the roster. They need to show improvement, but his job probably gets saved til next year unless the wheels absolutely fall off. 

McCarthy "should" be the first to go. But it's Dallas and he'll inevitably get a pass for Dak going down last year/Covid/no offseason/first year. I was surprised he wasn't fired already, so my gut says he has some wiggle room. 

Taylor took over a dumpster fire and then lost his franchise star. Unless they come out flatter than a pancake, he's going to have some breathing room. I don't know that he'll ultimately be successful, but this is the team that allowed Marvin Lewis to get by on astounding mediocrity for ages. 

Nagy would have been my first choice if not for drafting Fields. I think he's done just enough to buy at least a year to see what a better QB can do. Short leash, but not quite enough to be fired early barring a disaster. 

Zimmer's seat is probably warming up and Minnesota could come out flat. I think the Vikings need success this year or he's gone. That all said, the likelihood of an early exit are probably the lowest of the list. 

Fangio is probably screwed. They need a QB. They're clearly in 4th in the AFCW. They don't have much of a glimmer of hope to be a surprise team with their roster and schedule. My gut says he's a lameduck coach from week 2 onward and it's just a matter of when, not if, he's let go. 

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