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What's the best division in football?


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17 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos are all likely to be 9-8 or 8-9.

*Doubt*

Vegas has them (in your order) at 9, 7.5, 7.5, and my take is to take the under on all 3. Chargers under 9 is my strongest feeling about any team in the NFL. Even if Herbert is as good as everyone thinks coming off his rookie season (my bet is no), this is not a winning team.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

*Doubt*

Vegas has them (in your order) at 9, 7.5, 7.5, and my take is to take the under on all 3. Chargers under 9 is my strongest feeling about any team in the NFL. Even if Herbert is as good as everyone thinks coming off his rookie season (my bet is no), this is not a winning team.

I agree with your doubt, although I think you are underselling the West

IMO, the combined wins of the two worst AFCW are going to be +/- 2 wins compared to two worst in AFCN

I think its a misread to think the AFCW floor is way higher than the AFCN floor, or vice versa

Edited by Tk3
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14 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

1. NFCW

2. AFCN

3. AFCW

4. NFCS

5. NFCN

6. AFCE

7. NFCE

8. AFCS

Someone is going to have to explain to me how the AFCS, with two teams projected to pick in the top 5 in 2022 and one team with Wentz at QB (who was a bottom 5 QB last year), is a better division than the NFCE.  

The Eagles will probably suck, but every other team in the NFCE should be competitive this season with pretty much any team in the league, unlike in the AFCS.

Two reasons IMO 1) while the Jags and Texans will likely be dog doodoo, the Jags do have their QB and an unknown quantity at HC. Their record prior to adding said generational QB isn’t as quite so bad that I don’t believe they could climb to that same average category that I expect most of the NFCE to exist at all season.

2. If I’m looking at ranking the two top teams from both divisions that I’d feel most confident in winning the SB the Titans and Colts would quite easily be above the WFT and/or Cowboys/Giants. For as much talk as the Cowboys get they have a coach who hasn’t put together a competitive team in ages, whereas both Vrabel and Reich have been able to put together competitive teams and they have very competitive rosters to boot. Whereas the bottom 2 teams in both divisions? It’s more a race to average for below average to bad teams than anything else. Their ability to be average doesn’t disrupt the power balance within the overall NFL landscape very much.

23 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Completely disagree with you. Good divisions are the ones that have the most good teams and don’t have a single bad one. Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos are all likely to be 9-8 or 8-9. There is not a single bad team in the division. Not to mention the Chiefs are arguably the best team in the league. 

6th best division? Lmao. 
 

AFCN is likely going to be the #4 seed (I have the Ravens winning the division as the 4 seed) and the Steelers AND Bengals will both finish below .500. 

Guessing you’re referring to me (since you didn’t quote I can only assume). But the division with the best teams are more consistently to be followed by the teams that are led by the best coaches. Point blank. How often are terrible coaches leading less than competitive teams? For as much doom and gloom that has been predicted for the Ravens and Steelers over the years they consistently seem to put forth competitive above .500 level teams. The same cannot be true of the AFCW. The coaches other than Andy Reid have proven jack. Brandon Staley wasn’t considered a slam dunk. Fangio is below average at .375 and Gruden is a consistently .500 HC overall. The smart bet is that the Chiefs dominate while the rest of the division is average. Just like in 2020 and with the variance of an average team being below average and another being above average.

Wheras the AFCN is fresh off of 38 wins, leading the NFL by 2 wins.However considering they could beat up on the NFCE some regression is expected. 32-34 wins seems like the likeliest bet. They’ll be facing the AFCW and NFCN f2f. Again unless Aaron Rodgers is traded to the Broncos, I’m not seeing where they’re the 2nd best in football. I could see an argument for the AFCE as 2nd but that’s about it. The AFCW IMO is largely owing their ranking in my book to the Chief's carrying them as a SB champ and elite squad.

But hey, since the two divisions face off their will be no excuses about which one is actually better when it’s all said and done.

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5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Two reasons IMO 1) while the Jags and Texans will likely be dog doodoo, the Jags do have their QB and an unknown quantity at HC. Their record prior to adding said generational QB isn’t as quite so bad that I don’t believe they could climb to that same average category that I expect most of the NFCE to exist at all season.

2. If I’m looking at ranking the two top teams from both divisions that I’d feel most confident in winning the SB the Titans and Colts would quite easily be above the WFT and/or Cowboys/Giants. For as much talk as the Cowboys get they have a coach who hasn’t put together a competitive team in ages, whereas both Vrabel and Reich have been able to put together competitive teams and they have very competitive rosters to boot. Whereas the bottom 2 teams in both divisions? It’s more a race to average for below average to bad teams than anything else. Their ability to be average doesn’t disrupt the power balance within the overall NFL landscape very much.

1) The Jags do not have the roster to be put in anywhere near the same category as 3 out of 4 teams in the NFCE this season. You’re basically completely reliant on Trevor Lawrence performing miracles every game to make that roster an average team, which is a heck of a baseline to start from. 
 

2) I think you’re basing this too much off of last year’s records rather than how the rosters look now.  Titans were 9-7 every year for the past few years except last year and the Colts have been up and down over the years. These aren’t some juggernaut perennial double-digit win column teams. 
 

I don’t think people understand just how bad the QB situation was for Washington last year. Their QBs ranked last or close to last in every advanced metric. It’s nearly impossible to get double-digit wins with the kind of QB play they had last year. Regardless of what you think about Fitzpatrick, he will be a considerable upgrade over what Washington won the division with last year, and with better weapons around him. And their defense has only gotten better than it was last year. 
 

Dallas was without their top 10-12 QB for the majority of the season last year. Even though they weren’t winning many games with Dak to start the season, I doubt that trend would have continued once they started to learn their new coaches’ new systems. I expect Dallas to be a definite playoff contender this season with double digit wins. Their success hinges on just how bad Nolan was as a coordinator last year, and history proves that he is horrible.  I expect their defense to be closer to average this year. 
 

The Giants have a pretty loaded roster, and the only thing that I think really holds them back is their OL. I don’t think Jones is very good, but I think he’d look much better with a better OL. But that OL is still very you g, and it may surprise this year. I think they’ll come in 3rd in the division but I think they’ll be significantly better than the Texans or the Jags. 
 

To summarize, I’m looking at rosters, not 2020 records. 

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4 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

1) The Jags do not have the roster to be put in anywhere near the same category as 3 out of 4 teams in the NFCE this season. You’re basically completely reliant on Trevor Lawrence performing miracles every game to make that roster an average team, which is a heck of a baseline to start from. 
 

2) I think you’re basing this too much off of last year’s records rather than how the rosters look now.  Titans were 9-7 every year for the past few years except last year and the Colts have been up and down over the years. These aren’t some juggernaut perennial double-digit win column teams. 
 

I don’t think people understand just how bad the QB situation was for Washington last year. Their QBs ranked last or close to last in every advanced metric. It’s nearly impossible to get double-digit wins with the kind of QB play they had last year. Regardless of what you think about Fitzpatrick, he will be a considerable upgrade over what Washington won the division with last year, and with better weapons around him. And their defense has only gotten better than it was last year. 
 

Dallas was without their top 10-12 QB for the majority of the season last year. Even though they weren’t winning many games with Dak to start the season, I doubt that trend would have continued once they started to learn their new coaches’ new systems. I expect Dallas to be a definite playoff contender this season with double digit wins. Their success hinges on just how bad Nolan was as a coordinator last year, and history proves that he is horrible.  I expect their defense to be closer to average this year. 
 

The Giants have a pretty loaded roster, and the only thing that I think really holds them back is their OL. I don’t think Jones is very good, but I think he’d look much better with a better OL. But that OL is still very you g, and it may surprise this year. I think they’ll come in 3rd in the division but I think they’ll be significantly better than the Texans or the Jags. 
 

To summarize, I’m looking at rosters, not 2020 records. 

That’s cool. Difference of opinion. I’m considering rosters, coaching, and the past couple seasonal trends.

The NFCE won 24 games in 2019 and 23 games in 2020. Ron Rivera is an average coach whose defensive tendencies I believe will be somewhat adjusted to this season. I think the WFT will find themselves ultimately in a position similar to last year in record unless they land a Rodgers or Watson. Fitz all too often can be quite tragic. I see an average roster with an average coach. Thus I expect average results: 8-9 record.

Dallas I see a good roster with a below average coach and an owner that does things to make his players mentally weak. Thus if I had to bet money I’d expect an average to below average team- something like 7-10.

I believe in Joe Judge. I think he’s a good coach that makes his teams more competitive than it’s roster talent- top to bottom. They’ve made some roster improvements and I see the Giants as an above average team overall. 9-8 record.

I think Philly is a wildcard. Likely closer to average than terrible, but they have a wildcard coach. So I don’t know how to properly position them but I’ll assume 6-11.

While that’s 30 wins. I look at it like 27/28 wins in a 16 game schedule. Like I said, I think they’ve improved, but they’ve also been the worst division in football the last two seasons so until otherwise proven that’s where they will remain.
————

Whereas the AFCS is 27 wins (2020) and 32 wins (2019) respectively. The Jags were IMO a below average roster that gave up on a bad coach. I have no idea what to expect from Urban Meyer as a professional coach, but he was one of the top HC at multiple college programs with varying degrees of recruiting ability and turned around multiple programs. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he will be at least above average. They had a below average roster that just had an extensive draft haul added to it- that features a generational QB. They won 1 games last year but 6 games the year before. Predicting a bounce back to something closer to average, similar to the Cardinals when they got Kyler Murray makes all too much sense IMO. They have the look of a team that could win roughly 7 games in 2021.

The Texans should be terrible, but still find a way to win a game based on historical trends. A perfect storm typically has to happen to go completely defeated. I also don’t see as much competition with them in the preseason tanking department. That team also has a lot of... “belief” and thus 2 wins seems about right.

The Colts have Frank Reich, he’s proven he can make below average to average rosters competitive. The current unit is average to above average. They have what looks like an incredibly strong run game with Taylor, Mack, and co. I expect him to generate a 10 win team minimum.

The Titans have year in and year out since the Henry/Tannehill/Brown combination have shown great things. Their defense is unlikely to be as bad as last season. They have all the makings of a 11 (maybe 12 win) type squad. If they land Julio, I see 14 wins. I also think they’re a team that’s a legit SB contender.

Thats 30 wins as well. Yet of the teams I don’t see a NFCE team legitimately competing to win a SB with their rosters/coaching combos, while I could quite easily see either the Colts or Titans catching fire and going on a SB run to end the season. This division is only ranked as poorly as it is due to the terribleness of the Texans and nothing else IMO.

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Does the AFCW have a playoff team outside of the Chiefs?

Raiders under Gruden have been disappointing. Chargers are "hopeful" and have potential but will that equal 10 or 11+ wins? We don't know. Broncos are pretty bad and don't have a QB.

I'd pick the Steelers finishing with a better record than any AFCW team (besides the Chiefs). Browns and Ravens are likely double-digit win teams. Hell, even the Bengals could take a step forward.

AFCN > AFCW.

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3 hours ago, Vee-Rex said:

Does the AFCW have a playoff team outside of the Chiefs?

Raiders under Gruden have been disappointing. Chargers are "hopeful" and have potential but will that equal 10 or 11+ wins? We don't know. Broncos are pretty bad and don't have a QB.

I'd pick the Steelers finishing with a better record than any AFCW team (besides the Chiefs). Browns and Ravens are likely double-digit win teams. Hell, even the Bengals could take a step forward.

AFCN > AFCW.

Agreed. I’ve yet to see a competent argument as to what would position the AFCW ahead of the AFCN. They won 31 games in 2019 and 34 games in 2020; the QB situation hasn’t really changed within the division too much going from Rivers (fringe top 10 type QB) to Herbert (fringe top 10 QB)- the one benefit being that the Chargers now have a QB on a rookie deal vs an expensive option, though Mahomes is now going off of his rookie deal and into his rising expense (which is unlikely to hinder them this season obviously), Carr still QBs the Raiders, and the Broncos QB situation hasn’t really improved. The coaching situations haven’t improved with a rookie HC and Fangio now likely on the hot seat, while Gruden and Reid are roughly the same.

Meanwhile the AFCN went from 30 wins in 2019 to 38 wins in 2020. The QB situation has a declining Big Ben who is expected to continue to descend, however the division balances that out with young QBs on rookie deals on three of the other four teams. Both Burrow and Lamar are only 24 and additional skill ascension is very probable. Baker is likely to stabilize at his current fringe top 10 QB status and his age, though he’s still young enough where additional ascension is also probable. The coaching situation has improved from year over year with Tomlin and Harbaugh remaining pretty consistent while Stefanski has clearly elevated the Browns and Taylor showing some (small IMO) improvements.

So all in all, while the 2019 showings for both divisions were similar and the Chiefs won the SB clearly giving them the advantage over the AFCN in 2019, 2020 however had the AFCN with the clear edge placing three teams in the playoffs and two teams making it through to the divisional round winning at least 1 game. With the QB and coach situations looking far more stabilized and/or improved within the AFCN over the AFCW, I see no reason for the AFCW to be listed above the AFCN. 

Lastly looking at the draft season, the AFCN (not that this is some end all be all factor) consistently received higher media draft grades than the AFCW to boot; with the Ravens (3rd), Bengals (5th), and Browns (7th) all land in the top 10 while the Broncos were the only top 10 squad in the AFCW. While the Steelers draft was considered below average, it was still considered overall above the Raiders. So all in all, I don’t see a particularly strong argument for the AFCW above the AFCN heading into 2021. The best argument I could see would be that they face the NFCE in 2021 as the second division while the AFCN will be battling the NFCN and that could contribute to them having a superior divisional record, that and the fact that the Chiefs are a strong favorite to win the SB- which would also provide divisional clout. But that’s all I’ve got.

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     The NFC-West is best:  #1 in aggregate performance ratings and yardage, #2 in 2020 Wins and point differentials.  However, the metrics point to two other divisions that could contend this year.  The AFC-North is a close second in player ratings, was #1 in 2020 Wins, and has a much easier schedule (2nd, compared to second last for the NFC-West) in 2021.  The NFC-South is a ways behind but has a soft schedule (3rd), was #1 in points differential, and was second in yardage.

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On 6/2/2021 at 1:31 AM, diamondbull424 said:

If I’m looking at ranking the two top teams from both divisions that I’d feel most confident in winning the SB the Titans and Colts would quite easily be above the WFT and/or Cowboys/Giants.

Titans lost a bunch of players and the Colts have a QB that was arguably the worst in the NFL last year.

The Giants and WFT added a ton of talent, while the Cowboys invested heavily into their defense (13 players and 4? coaches).

On 6/2/2021 at 1:31 AM, diamondbull424 said:

For as much talk as the Cowboys get they have a coach who hasn’t put together a competitive team in ages, whereas both Vrabel and Reich have been able to put together competitive teams and they have very competitive rosters to boot.

2016 wasnt that long ago, and he did it for basically an entire decade before that.

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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Titans lost a bunch of players and the Colts have a QB that was arguably the worst in the NFL last year.

The Giants and WFT added a ton of talent, while the Cowboys invested heavily into their defense (13 players and 4? coaches).

2016 wasnt that long ago, and he did it for basically an entire decade before that.

That was a very simplistic take on the Titans and Colts. All those teams added more talent we’ll see how they do on the field. I’ll take Colts/Titans over the top 2 NFCE teams though.

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Posted (edited)

1. AFCW- The Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers are all teams that could make the playoffs, and the latter 2 proved they can hang with some of the best teams in the league. Denver needs a QB, but they're not atrocious. Deepest division imo.  

2. NFCW- The 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks are also all playoff teams. Cards are a bit off, imo.  This is probably the most "competitive" division. 

3. AFCN- I think the Ravens are the best. The Browns and Bengals could surprise. The Steelers could flop, but I've said that before. I think they have 2 good teams, 1 middle tier, and 1 "maybe" bad one. 

4. NFCN- The Packers control the division, but Rodgers' situation is murky. The Vikings and Bears could be good or bad. The Lions could be a spoiler. 

5. NFCE- Dallas and Washington are probably playoff caliber. The Eagles are 50/50. The Giants aren't particularly good though. 

6. AFCS- The Titans and Colts should be competitive. Jacksonville is a darkhorse, I like a lot of the moves they made. The Texans are the worst team in the league. 

7. AFCE- The Bills and Dolphins look legit. The Patriots aren't gone yet. The Jets suck though.

8. NFCS- The Buccaneers are a top tier team. The Saints are probably the 2nd best in the division, but have no QB and could have a losing record. I had faith in the Falcons prior to the Jones trade. The Panthers are uninspiring. Of the divisions, I have them as the most likely to have 3 teams with losing records. 

 

*Honestly, I could be talked into swapping the AFCN and NFCE. 

Edited by ronjon1990
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10 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

NFCE- Dallas and Washington are probably playoff caliber. The Eagles are 50/50. The Giants aren't particularly good though

I will be absolutely shocked if the Eagles dont finish last. They have the worst roster, worst QB and a new coach. That is a recipe for terrible. 

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