CWood21 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is, and willing to look at this. We will see if others want to join. For the record, I'm not going to include anyone drafted this year and nobody drafted in 2016. That means I'm look strictly from 2010 through 2015. 2010 1(23) - OT Bryan Bulaga 2(56) - DL/OLB Mike Neal 3(71) - S Morgan Burnett 5(154) - TE Andrew Quarless 5(169) - OT Marshall Newhouse 6(193) - RB James Starks 7(230) - DL CJ Wilson 2011 1(32) - OT Derek Sherrod 2(64) - WR Randall Cobb 3(96) - RB Alex Green 4(131) - CB Davon House 5(141) - TE DJ Williams 6(179) - OG Caleb Schlauderaff 6(186) - LB DJ Smith 6(197) - OLB Ricky Elmore 7(218) - TE Ryan Taylor 7(233) - DL Lawrence Guy 2012 1(28) - OLB Nick Perry 2(51) - DL Jerel Worthy 2(62) - CB Casey Hayward 4(132) - DL Mike Daniels 4(133) - S Jerron McMillian 5(163) - LB Terrell Manning 7(241) - OT Andrew Datko 7(243) - QB BJ Coleman 2013 1(26) - DL/OLB Datone Jones 2(61) - RB Eddie Lacy 4(109) - OT David Bakhtiari 4(122) - C JC Tretter 4(125) - RB Jonathan Franklin 5(159) - S Micah Hyde 6(193) - LB Nate Palmer 7(216) - WR Charles Johnson 7(224) - WR Kevin Dorsey 7(232) - LB Sam Barrington 2014Cur 1(21) - S Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix 2(53) - WR Davante Adams 3(85) - DT Khyri Thornton 3(98) - TE Richard Rodgers 4(121) - LB Carl Bradford 5(161) - C Corey Linsley 6(176) - WR Jared Abberderis 6(197) - CB Demetri Goodson 7(236) - WR Jeff Janis 2015 1(30) - CB Damarious Randall 2(62) - CB Quentin Rollins 3(94) - WR Ty Montogmery 4(129) - LB Jake Ryan 5(147) - QB Brett Hundley 6(206) - FB Aaron Ripkowski 6(210) - DL Christian Ringo 6(213) - TE Kennard Backman Currently Under Construction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 As a baseline, I'm using these standards as my baseline. 1st Round - Above-Average Starter 2nd/3rd Round - Good Starter/High Quality Backup 4th/5th Round - Decent Backup/Key Special Teams Player 6th/7th Round - Good Special Teams Player To me, that's where my standards are. If you disagree, note why. And for the record, I won't say that a 6th or 7th round is a bust because those are guys that likely have a priority UDFA grades on them, and expecting anything out of them is setting yourself up for failure. So that being said, do you disagree with my baseline? EDIT: And I'm not going to count injury busts against him, since there's literally no way to predict career ending injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Will we be counting them if they become hits somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: Will we be counting them if they become hits somewhere else? Should we count a player as a bust if the scheme or situation they are drafted into is poor? If the coaching sucks, should a player that does not develop properly count as a strike against the GM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: Will we be counting them if they become hits somewhere else? Who are you talking about? To me, there's players who were stuck in a bad situation that went onto having success elsewhere. To me, the discussion is about the evaluation portion of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 minute ago, squire12 said: Should we count a player as a bust if the scheme or situation they are drafted into is poor? If the coaching sucks, should a player that does not develop properly count as a strike against the GM? Yeah that's what I was getting at. But I didn't think I saw it mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 I'd suggest this formula: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index9a9b.html?p=527 And just use AV for every player. It'd be an undertaking, but enlightening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Just now, CWood21 said: Who are you talking about? To me, there's players who were stuck in a bad situation that went onto having success elsewhere. To me, the discussion is about the evaluation portion of it. Just in general when we get into it with this and other teams. I just wanted to know which way we'd go on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Just now, incognito_man said: I'd suggest this formula: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index9a9b.html?p=527 And just use AV for every player. It'd be an undertaking, but enlightening as well. This has been done. I almost mentioned it. I have no idea where to find it anymore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 1 minute ago, NormSizedMidget said: Just in general when we get into it with this and other teams. I just wanted to know which way we'd go on that Honestly, I'm down with either way. We've seen players that got stuck in a bad situation, and went onto have success at the next level. To me, a situation like Charles Johnson isn't an evaluation or developmental issue, the Packers were simply too deep at WR to keep him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, NormSizedMidget said: This has been done. I almost mentioned it. I have no idea where to find it anymore though. figured it had been, but I haven't found it either...easy number crunching once the data entry is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 It's really the only proper way to do it. Maybe cwood can set a google spreadsheet up or something and a bunch of us could work on it. Hash this out once and for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 23, 2017 Author Share Posted October 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, incognito_man said: It's really the only proper way to do it. Maybe cwood can set a google spreadsheet up or something and a bunch of us could work on it. Hash this out once and for all. If we're going to use the AV value, I want to make sure I'm reading it right. The link you provided is their expected AV, and if it's above that they exceeded expectations. If it's below that, they failed to live up to expectations. What's the leeway for that, or are we going to use a black and white interpretation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpeightTheVillain Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, incognito_man said: It's really the only proper way to do it. Maybe cwood can set a google spreadsheet up or something and a bunch of us could work on it. Hash this out once and for all. I'd be interested in the results as well. If it goes down this way, just give me a couple a teams and I'll be more then willing to help out the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 interpretation is correct. I don't understand the question about leeway though *edit, or you mean like injuries and such? If we do a whole league comparison it should all even out. No reason to deviate from just a straight AV comparison at first IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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