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Packers Draft Success Compared to Other Teams


CWood21

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2 hours ago, squire12 said:

Using games started is a bit flawed.  Teams picking at the top generally need more /better starters.  That can skew the games started for players they draft just out of ne essay to start someone.

Agreed, but not sure what comment this is referring to. If you’re talking about my list, it’s sorted CarAV, not snaps. I’d also add that you will find some amount of flaw in every type of data in existence, yet things can still get close to the mark (including snap counts) inspite of these flaws. There are varying degrees of correlation.

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12 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

Agreed, but not sure what comment this is referring to. If you’re talking about my list, it’s sorted CarAV, not snaps. I’d also add that you will find some amount of flaw in every type of data in existence, yet things can still get close to the mark (including snap counts) inspite of these flaws. There are varying degrees of correlation.

how is CarAV calculated?  Is that based on career starts or snaps.  Again, that comes down to the someone has to start and play snaps.  Just because they play, does not mean that the player should have been starting/playing based on merit, rather someone has to.  

I have no solution, just pointing out a limitation to the process of determining a draft success based on starts or snaps or whatever CarAV is derived from.

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39 minutes ago, squire12 said:

how is CarAV calculated?  Is that based on career starts or snaps.  Again, that comes down to the someone has to start and play snaps.  Just because they play, does not mean that the player should have been starting/playing based on merit, rather someone has to.  

I have no solution, just pointing out a limitation to the process of determining a draft success based on starts or snaps or whatever CarAV is derived from.

It’s explained here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

While the starter-by-default phenomenon probably results in some non-zero amount of error, I don’t think it drastically affects the results. At least when I compared the AV of the Packers’ picks vs. the expected value I calculated from their draft slot, the “hits” (players with greater AV than expected from their draft slot) pretty much matched the players people consider to be “hits” (and also players the “graded well” under film review)

I don’t really see any other way to go about it unless ppl are willing to analyze hundreds of thousands of hrs of game film.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/22/2017 at 7:15 PM, CWood21 said:

I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is ...

Has the empirical evidence proving your statement that "You look at [TT's] draft record and it stands up as well as anyone's" been posted yet CWood?

I know you said you'd be providing the data to back up your oft-asserted claim and I could not locate it in this thread.

On a related note, I know you believe that questioning TT's drafting prowess "goes against popular opinion," so I the following blurb from Daugherty's column last weekend interesting.

In that column he notes “Thompson’s first five drafts (2005-2009) were outstanding,” but since then there have been “Painfully few big hits in the draft.” http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/10/28/dougherty-without-aaron-rodgers-packers-just-another-team/806393001/

I agree with Daugherty on both counts.

In fact, I'd say the first six drafts of Thompson's, between 2005-2010, were outstanding. So, for me, I fully concede that the Packers drafts during the first 6 drafts that Ted Thompson oversaw stand up as well as anyone's as you claim.

However, I do not think Thompson's following six drafts (2011-2016) have been outstanding or stand up as well as any other GM in the NFLs drafting record. (Thompson has actually had 13 drafts as the Packers GM, but it is far to early to rate the one earlier this year. It is probably too early to characterize the 2016 draft, but with Clark and Martinez personally I'd say it was at least average).

Consequently, I'd still love to see the numbers proving your point about TT being as good at drafting as anyone else in the NFL, especially between 2011-2016.

 

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7 hours ago, TheOnlyThing said:

Consequently, I'd still love to see the numbers proving your point about TT being as good at drafting as anyone else in the NFL, especially between 2011-2016.

Amazing.  I challenged you to back up your point, and when I start the legwork of doing it you're nowhere to be found.  Nowhere.  Now that I've been busy outside of FF (it's weird I have a life I know), you're literally only in here to troll.

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How have I not noticed this thread before?

I was looking through his recent work, specifically 2011 through last year. 2011 will go down as his worst draft. Fortunately for him, he was picking last each round so you can't crucify him. 

I judge the success of each draft pick individually on a case-by-case basis. But the lazy way to whittle it down for me was to simply ask how many of them got second contracts with us or we would gladly have given a 2nd contract with the knowledge we have now. Those guys are GOOD players. I don't care if you get them early or late, just get GOOD players. Yes, high draft picks are important, but they are important because they have the best odds to produce GOOD players.

GOOD PLAYERS IN BOLD EXTENDED NFL CAREERS ELSEWHERE IN ITALICS INJURY BUSTS IN STRIKETHROUGH  Busts in regular font. Underlined are CORE players.

2010
1(23) - OT Bryan Bulaga
2(56) - DL/OLB Mike Neal
3(71) - S Morgan Burnett

5(154) - TE Andrew Quarless
5(169) - OT Marshall Newhouse
6(193) - RB James Starks
7(230) - DL CJ Wilson

2011
1(32) - OT Derek Sherrod
2(64) - WR Randall Cobb
3(96) - RB Alex Green
4(131) - CB Davon House
5(141) - TE DJ Williams
6(179) - OG Caleb Schlauderaff
6(186) - LB DJ Smith
6(197) - OLB Ricky Elmore
7(218) - TE Ryan Taylor
7(233) - DL Lawrence Guy

2012
1(28) - OLB Nick Perry
2(51) - DL Jerel Worthy
2(62) - CB Casey Hayward
4(132) - DL Mike Daniels

4(133) - S Jerron McMillian
5(163) - LB Terrell Manning
7(241) - OT Andrew Datko
7(243) - QB BJ Coleman

2013
1(26) - DL/OLB Datone Jones
2(61) - RB Eddie Lacy
4(109) - OT David Bakhtiari
4(122) - C JC Tretter

4(125) - RB Jonathan Franklin
5(159) - S Micah Hyde
6(193) - LB Nate Palmer
7(216) - WR Charles Johnson
7(224) - WR Kevin Dorsey
7(232) - LB Sam Barrington

2014Cur
1(21) - S Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix
2(53) - WR Davante Adams

3(85) - DT Khyri Thornton
3(98) - TE Richard Rodgers
4(121) - LB Carl Bradford
5(161) - C Corey Linsley
6(176) - WR Jared Abberderis
6(197) - CB Demetri Goodson
7(236) - WR Jeff Janis

2015
1(30) - CB Damarious Randall
2(62) - CB Quentin Rollins
3(94) - WR Ty Montogmery
4(129) - LB Jake Ryan
5(147) - QB Brett Hundley
6(206) - FB Aaron Ripkowski
6(210) - DL Christian Ringo
6(213) - TE Kennard Backman

2016

Clark, Spriggs, Mackrell, Martinez, Lowry, Davis, Murphy (only projecting)

2017

King, Jones, Adams, Biegel, Williams, Yancey, Jones, Amichia, Mays, Dupre (again, projecting)

So in any given year we are getting 3 or 4 GOOD players and 1-2 CORE players. That's probably league average. The thing is though, other than New England, we've been picking later than everyone over that same span. So yeah, if you are getting average drafts from the second worst draft position, you're doing damn good. That's how you sustain long term success. You see teams have very good individual drafts that propel them to short term success, but the test of time shows what GMs can really do, and Ted has certainly passed that test.

 

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2014 on is more projecting or confirming those guys. No reason to think Richard Rodgers will be unemployed anytime soon. No reason we wouldn't want Rip or Randall back right now. Also, don't talk trash about Jeff Janis, he's a Pro Bowl caliber gunner. He and that guy in New England are ridiculous.

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