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Hicks trade smoke is back


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20 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I can be both fine with Fuller having been our #1 CB the past 3 years and think he’s overrated by Bears fans. Those two things are not mutually exclusive. I’m not saying he’s bad. I don’t have and haven’t had a problem with Fuller at all - he’s a good player, and I would prefer he was still on our roster. I’m only saying that he’s not the irreplaceable part many are making him out to be right now. Whether or not we’ve adequately replaced him remains to be seen and isn’t at all my point.

And I'm only saying you are underrating him and overrating Gilmore and not realizing how much Fuller has meant to this defense. If you think that highly of Gilmore then you should think the same for Fuller. Stop looking at raw numbers. He's been better than you think he has.

Fuller has spent the last 4 years playing LCB. Our CBS don't switch, as with most nowadays. QBs passing to the right side of the field against us have a hard time succeeding in large part because of Fuller.

DVOA Defense by Pass Direction by each year

In 2018, 1st in DVOA on passes thrown to the right side (-53.8%). 14th in 2019 (-11.4%), and 6th in 2020 (-21.4%).

Now I understand that not all of this is a reflection on Fuller (good or bad) but a majority of it is based on position alone.

And before I hear about how getting Mack and how much it mattered, this was Fullers production in 2017 on a terribly injured team practically playing walk ons and has beens.  7th in 2017 (-15.4%).

Full transparency, here are the numbers since I know they're behind a paywall.

2018

o8agMMA.png

2019

u09Sspd.png

2020

oaWmhpi.png

   
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On 6/20/2021 at 12:42 AM, AZBearsFan said:

I’m sure I’m in the minority on this, and it’s definitely a net loss over the status quo at least heading into 2021, but… I think Kyle Fuller is pretty overrated by most Bears fans. He was great in 2018. Other than 2018 though he’s just been solid IMO. He was an asset without question, but I don’t think he’s an elite player. He shut anyone down last year? Certainly not Devante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, AJ Brown or Calvin Ridley. Just the best receivers we played against last year. Golladay was inactive both games against us. I watched every snap last season, and the few standout plays I remember Fuller making were on hits, not plays in coverage. My biggest concern with him being gone is that we’re replacing him with a question mark, not that we were losing a top tier player. To that end, choosing to keep Hicks over him was a no-brainer for me. A healthy Hicks is and has been a top tier player. 

I don't disagree, but there's a big gap in going from solid starting CB to bad starting CB. And the Bears' defense was pretty average even before that downgrade.

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14 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I don't disagree, but there's a big gap in going from solid starting CB to bad starting CB. And the Bears' defense was pretty average even before that downgrade.

True, but you’re assuming that what we get from his replacement will be bad starting CB level play. 

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On 6/23/2021 at 2:13 AM, JAF-N72EX said:

And I'm only saying you are underrating him and overrating Gilmore and not realizing how much Fuller has meant to this defense. If you think that highly of Gilmore then you should think the same for Fuller. Stop looking at raw numbers. He's been better than you think he has.

Fuller has spent the last 4 years playing LCB. Our CBS don't switch, as with most nowadays. QBs passing to the right side of the field against us have a hard time succeeding in large part because of Fuller.

DVOA Defense by Pass Direction by each year

In 2018, 1st in DVOA on passes thrown to the right side (-53.8%). 14th in 2019 (-11.4%), and 6th in 2020 (-21.4%).

Now I understand that not all of this is a reflection on Fuller (good or bad) but a majority of it is based on position alone.

And before I hear about how getting Mack and how much it mattered, this was Fullers production in 2017 on a terribly injured team practically playing walk ons and has beens.  7th in 2017 (-15.4%).

Full transparency, here are the numbers since I know they're behind a paywall.

2018

o8agMMA.png

2019

u09Sspd.png

2020

oaWmhpi.png

   

Looking strictly at your numbers here for the right side the short numbers are all really good, but the deep pass numbers in 2019 and 2020 are both below league average, and in 2019 in particular (+69.8%) was one of the worst in the entire league. As you said, it’s hard for me to know what of that (good or bad) is Fuller without full context. This is captioned as being broken down solely by direction, not position. Are these numbers exclusively evaluating CBs, or do they include the play of our safeties and LBs too? I don’t have access to the source site to confirm one way or the other. If not just CBs then Eddie Jackson (mostly good) and our highly touted coverage LBs in Roquan and Floyd (pre-2020) impact these numbers too, right? I don’t discount that they’re favorable for Fuller, but I can’t know that either.

Forget Gilmore - I used his name because he and Ramsey are the players the last few years most commonly used as the standards against which most “top” CBs are commonly measured. I haven’t seen enough of Gilmore in live action nor studied him enough to know whether he should be that standard or not, but his 2019 DPOY award sure doesn’t hurt his case.

I’m not looking to change anyone’s mind here. I’ve seen every snap Fuller has played in a Bears uniform and just don’t see his play on the whole having been at the same level you do. That’s not a sour grapes position from him no longer being here - just an unbiased opinion about a guy who played here for several years but happens not to be on our roster any more. There was never a reason to discuss my thoughts on him until he was gone because I didn’t see him as someone who needed to be replaced but also didn’t see him as someone who was irreplaceable. He drew a 1-year deal in Denver upon release despite going to the coach and scheme where he had his best seasons and being just 29 and healthy with probably at least 2-3 more prime years. This was when Denver still had some $40M in cap space and long before they thought they had a shot at Rodgers too. The teams have access to the same data you do and then some. That contract would seem incredibly light if Denver saw him as you do.  

Fuller was a good piece for us, and I hope his replacement(s) can play up to or at least near his level. Pretty sure we can agree on that. As to what that level was, it seems we’ll have to agree to disagree. 

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2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Vildor was okay considering he was a rookie.

Trufant was injured and horrendous last year.

And unfortunately Johnson is going to be heavily relied upon when he hasn't been able to be heavily relied upon for a few years now, going back to Utah.

I'd much rather have a great pass rush than a great set of corners because I firmly believe a great pass rush helps good corners look even better, so perhaps Mack/Quinn/Hicks/Nichols can shine like 3/4 are 3 years younger (or just better, in Quinn's case) and it'll help out JJ, Vildor, etc. 

If I had to rank the top 3 positions that are huge question marks, CB is definitely making the cut.

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1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

And unfortunately Johnson is going to be heavily relied upon when he hasn't been able to be heavily relied upon for a few years now, going back to Utah.

Johnson didn’t miss any games in either of his last 2 seasons at Utah.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jaylon-johnson-1.html

Edited by AZBearsFan
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On 6/23/2021 at 3:13 AM, JAF-N72EX said:

I can be both fine with Fuller having been our #1 CB the past 3 years and think he’s overrated by Bears fans.

Again, who are these Bears fans that you keep referring too who have been overrating Fuller? As I've said, I've never heard anyone call him a top 5 CB. This seems like an exaggerated statement to me.

On 6/25/2021 at 1:12 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Looking strictly at your numbers here for the right side the short numbers are all really good, but the deep pass numbers in 2019 and 2020 are both below league average

Not true. Deep passing numbers were well above average in both 2018 and 2020.

2nd in 2018 (-56.8%), league average (+17.3%)
13th in 2020 (-13.7), league average (+30.3)

Fuller's play declined in 2019 and I remember criticizing Fuller for it but he bounced back in 2020 and was actually playing much more aggressive until he started getting (wrongfully) flagged for it by cupcake refs.

On 6/25/2021 at 1:12 AM, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t discount that they’re favorable for Fuller

Agreed. Good, I don't think I need to explain why to you then.

On 6/25/2021 at 1:12 AM, AZBearsFan said:

Forget Gilmore - I used his name because he and Ramsey are the players the last few years most commonly used as the standards against which most “top” CBs are commonly measured. I haven’t seen enough of Gilmore in live action nor studied him enough to know whether he should be that standard or not, but his 2019 DPOY award sure doesn’t hurt his case.

I'm confused. So which is it. Do you consider Gilmore a top 5 CB or were you just throwing his name out there only because other people do? Because a few pages ago you were initially representing this statement as if you think he's a top "shut down corner" and that Fuller isn't in the same class and passed it off as your own opinion.

See your quote below.

Quote

I see Fuller as a guy who’s reliable but not as one who’s a shut down corner. Bears fans talk about him like he’s in the same tier with Ramsey and Gilmore, and he’s just not.

But now you are saying you haven't seen enough of Gilmore to judge him and that you only mentioned him because of you thought he was the consensus opinion.

I'm 100% calling backpedaling on this one. And if you're not backpedaling and you personally think Gilmore is a top-5 corner but Fuller isn't even in the same class, then where and how are you rating these guys?

So here's a direct question. If you are not reneging on your statement then where would rank Fuller and Gilmore?

IMO, Gilmore is more athletic, more aggressive, has better hands, and better route anticipation. Fuller is better against the run, is more of a tactician slash precision player, more fundamentally sound, and doesn't take unnecessary risks--meaning he won't try to be a hero at the expense of giving up a big play.

Both Fuller and Gilmore have had inconsistent years but they are very close in terms of production and impact against both pass and run and you could make an argument that Fuller has actually had a better 3 year stretch. As I posted earlier, they really are that close.

On 6/25/2021 at 1:12 AM, AZBearsFan said:

He drew a 1-year deal in Denver upon release despite going to the coach and scheme where he had his best seasons and being just 29 and healthy with probably at least 2-3 more prime years. This was when Denver still had some $40M in cap space

Sorry, but this does sound like the sour grapes coming out. Let's not act like they signed him to a cheap 1-year deal. They signed him to a 1-year deal at the expense of 9.5M. That's not light money. That's literally accounting for 10% of their entire cap space and 20 if you include Darby. He's making nearly as much this year as Jalen Ramsey (9.7M) and Marlon Humphrey (10.7M) and I wouldn't be surprised to seem an extension too.

 

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Going from Fuller, Jaylon, and Skrine/Vildor to Jaylon, Trufant, and Vildor is a significant downgrade. No matter how you spin it.

I have no doubts about Jaylon's talent, ceiling, or switching sides, but his health is a legit concern. He had a injury history in college and then missed 3 games last year without any real offseason programs and no preseason games which lessened his chances of ever getting injured. This year it's different and we don't know how much of an effect it'll have in the long run. Plus, now he's being counted on as "the guy" at corner to replace Fuller and that's alot of pressure.

The Trufant signing is similar to the Tracy Porter signing some years back. A guy who showed alot of potential in small spots during their primes but could never maintain any consistency or ever come close to it and are now at the stage of their career where they're just looking for a check.

I went back and watched every play from Vildor last year and he was impressive as a rookie. I like his potential but he has alot to learn.

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47 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Again, who are these Bears fans that you keep referring too who have been overrating Fuller? As I've said, I've never heard anyone call him a top 5 CB. This seems like an exaggerated statement to me.

Not true. Deep passing numbers were well above average in both 2018 and 2020.

2nd in 2018 (-56.8%), league average (+17.3%)
13th in 2020 (-13.7), league average (+30.3)

Fuller's play declined in 2019 and I remember criticizing Fuller for it but he bounced back in 2020 and was actually playing much more aggressive until he started getting (wrongfully) flagged for it by cupcake refs.

Agreed. Good, I don't think I need to explain why to you then.

I'm confused. So which is it. Do you consider Gilmore a top 5 CB or were you just throwing his name out there only because other people do? Because a few pages ago you were initially representing this statement as if you think he's a top "shut down corner" and that Fuller isn't in the same class and passed it off as your own opinion.

See your quote below.

But now you are saying you haven't seen enough of Gilmore to judge him and that you only mentioned him because of you thought he was the consensus opinion.

I'm 100% calling backpedaling on this one. And if you're not backpedaling and you personally think Gilmore is a top-5 corner but Fuller isn't even in the same class, then where and how are you rating these guys?

So here's a direct question. If you are not reneging on your statement then where would rank Fuller and Gilmore?

IMO, Gilmore is more athletic, more aggressive, has better hands, and better route anticipation. Fuller is better against the run, is more of a tactician slash precision player, more fundamentally sound, and doesn't take unnecessary risks--meaning he won't try to be a hero at the expense of giving up a big play.

Both Fuller and Gilmore have had inconsistent years but they are very close in terms of production and impact against both pass and run and you could make an argument that Fuller has actually had a better 3 year stretch. As I posted earlier, they really are that close.

Sorry, but this does sound like the sour grapes coming out. Let's not act like they signed him to a cheap 1-year deal. They signed him to a 1-year deal at the expense of 9.5M. That's not light money. That's literally accounting for 10% of their entire cap space and 20 if you include Darby. He's making nearly as much this year as Jalen Ramsey (9.7M) and Marlon Humphrey (10.7M) and I wouldn't be surprised to seem an extension too.

 

Does it really bother you this much that I don’t see Fuller as being as good as you do? Jesus, man. It’s an opinion, and try as you might by explaining yours to me you’re not going to change mine, same as I’m not going to change yours. That’s kind of the nature of opinions. You think mine is wrong? Cool. I prefaced my initial comment that it was probably one that would be in the minority. I’m certainly not discounting that you have a reasonable basis for your opinion, even if I don’t agree with it. 

I don’t put nearly the energy into ranking players you do apparently, so where Fuller ranks for me isn’t something for which I have a specific number grade. 🤷‍♂️ Seeing as how essentially everyone on the planet seems to agree that Gilmore is an elite player I’m inclined to think that he probably is. Very few put Fuller at that level, which fits with what I see when I watch him play. Good not great. Again, it’s an opinion. Yours is different? Congratulations - you’re a human with his own brain. Me too! See - we may be more alike than you thought! 

To be clear, again, I think Fuller is a good player. If we had 3 Kyle Fullers at corner that would be a good thing. I can like Kyle Fuller, appreciate him as a player, and still not think he’s a great player. There’s no established standard for what makes a player great vs. good. He can fit one distinction for you and the other for me. Big deal. When I say he’s overrated by Bears fans it’s because since he left most people talk about him in the light that what he brought to the field was at a level we couldn’t reasonably replace, and I don’t think that’s the case. Hence, overrated from the standpoint of what I see he is versus how other Bears fans express that they see who he is. If you see it differently then you see it differently. 

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