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Examples of Butterfly Effect in football?


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What if Green Bay keeps Favre? 

He still had a few good years, and Green Bay would've still had a reasonable shot at another Superbowl with him. 

Considering Rodgers' early play and injury bug, does he wind up getting a shot elsewhere early, or does he go somewhere there was an established starter he doesn't get a legitimate shot at competing with? 

 

Another is obviously Drew Bledsoe going down in New England. Brady being Brady, he probably eventually gets a shot, but is his legend as great? 

 

One of my favorites is 2009 in Carolina. Jake Delhomme was playing like garbage before he goes down. With 5 games left, Matt Moore, an undrafted free agent plucked from Dallas' waiver wire 2 years prior, comes in and goes 4-1 while playing reasonably well, as he often did throughout his career. 

If Carolina starts him sooner, it's fairly likely they avoid their 4-7 start under Delhomme. They were 3 games back from making the playoffs (Philadelphia was the 6th seed at 11-5). 

Do they make the playoffs? Does Moore's increased body of work lead the Panthers to not taking Jimmy Clausen? Does it buy Moore an extra year? Moore got hurt early on, and Clausen stunk up the joint. What if Carolina had a more capable backup to fill in? Does Carolina still wind up drafting Newton? 

It's often understated, but I think Carolina's decision to stick with Delhomme's terrible play through most of 2009 really changed the landscape quite a bit. Moore spent a long time as one of the league's top backups amd rarely embarrassed himself. If someone other than Miami comes knocking of he's still made available, does he ever stick to being Miami's backup? Plenty of reports of him being sought after are out there. At that point, the possibilities are nearly endless.

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In Week 17 of the 2007 season, the Jets and Chiefs played a seemingly meaningless game into OT. Jet K Mike Nugent hit the game winner.

It turned out to be very significant. The win knocked the Jets from the third pick in the 08 draft to the sixth pick, and Matty Ice was no longer in their grasp.

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2 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

In Week 17 of the 2007 season, the Jets and Chiefs played a seemingly meaningless game into OT. Jet K Mike Nugent hit the game winner.

It turned out to be very significant. The win knocked the Jets from the third pick in the 08 draft to the sixth pick, and Matty Ice was no longer in their grasp.

I feel like the Jets will appear in this thread many, many times lol

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3 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

In Week 17 of the 2007 season, the Jets and Chiefs played a seemingly meaningless game into OT. Jet K Mike Nugent hit the game winner.

It turned out to be very significant. The win knocked the Jets from the third pick in the 08 draft to the sixth pick, and Matty Ice was no longer in their grasp.

This one ties in interestingly with another frequent question; can teams ruin players?

I’m a big Matt Ryan fan. But if he goes to the Jets in that era, he’s ruined. It would take them 4-5 years to give up. Him another 1-2 to get another shot elsewhere. If he ever recovered he’d be 30 finally hitting his stride in a new location. Likely he’d just be ruined.

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3 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

In Week 17 of the 2007 season, the Jets and Chiefs played a seemingly meaningless game into OT. Jet K Mike Nugent hit the game winner.

It turned out to be very significant. The win knocked the Jets from the third pick in the 08 draft to the sixth pick, and Matty Ice was no longer in their grasp.

In the end, the NFL is really just about bad teams playing meaningless games that secretly dictate the future of the NFL.

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24 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

This one ties in interestingly with another frequent question; can teams ruin players?

I’m a big Matt Ryan fan. But if he goes to the Jets in that era, he’s ruined. It would take them 4-5 years to give up. Him another 1-2 to get another shot elsewhere. If he ever recovered he’d be 30 finally hitting his stride in a new location. Likely he’d just be ruined.

Is that because of Rex Ryan? I'm not sure that Rex would be Jet HC in this world.

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40 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

This one ties in interestingly with another frequent question; can teams ruin players?

I’m a big Matt Ryan fan. But if he goes to the Jets in that era, he’s ruined. It would take them 4-5 years to give up. Him another 1-2 to get another shot elsewhere. If he ever recovered he’d be 30 finally hitting his stride in a new location. Likely he’d just be ruined.

That is pretty crazy to think about. 2 whole careers and still zero superbowl wins.

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1 hour ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Is that because of Rex Ryan? I'm not sure that Rex would be Jet HC in this world.

Not specifically Rex. Jets in general. Just been an aimless franchise for so long. 
Hell, Rex might be the best coach they’ve had in two decades. The guy did reach two conference championships with Mark Sanchez. He was doing something right. 

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Jerry Rice fumbled near the end of the 1999 NFC Wildcard game.  Refs suck and there was no instant replay at the time (🤦🏻‍♂️) so the SF drive continued. T.O. makes a great catch for the “winning” score.  But the game should’ve already been over with GB moving on and likely looking at a rematch with Denver in the SB.  Instant replay was available the following season but too little, too late for GB and their fans.  

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The Patriots hosted the Seahawks in week 3 of the 1992 season. The Pats gave up a conversion on 3rd and long to Tommy Kane on a Seahawks 1st quarter drive, which set Seattle up at the New England 2-yard line. On the next play, Chris Warren would score the game's only touchdown.

Seattle won 10-6. At the end of the season, this gave New England the tiebreaker for the first overall pick in the 1993 draft. 

The Patriots would go on to select Drew Bledsoe with the pick. But more importantly, having the #1 overall pick was thought to be what enticed Bill Parcells to become the team's head coach (it sure as hell wasn't the ownership, the facility, or anything else about the organization at the time). 

In 1996, Parcells hired his former defensive coordinator with the Giants, Bill Belichick, to be his assistant head coach/DBs coach. Belichick would only spend a year with the team, before following Parcells to the Jets. But in that one year, he established a relationship with owner Bob Kraft, which would eventually prompt him to abandon his job as head coach of the Jets to join the Patriots as HC in 2000. 

If the Pats don't blow a coverage against the Kelly Stouffer/Tommy Kane combination, who knows where the organization would be now? Maybe in St. Louis?

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5 hours ago, Starless said:

The Patriots hosted the Seahawks in week 3 of the 1992 season. The Pats gave up a conversion on 3rd and long to Tommy Kane on a Seahawks 1st quarter drive, which set Seattle up at the New England 2-yard line. On the next play, Chris Warren would score the game's only touchdown.

Seattle won 10-6. At the end of the season, this gave New England the tiebreaker for the first overall pick in the 1993 draft. 

The Patriots would go on to select Drew Bledsoe with the pick. But more importantly, having the #1 overall pick was thought to be what enticed Bill Parcells to become the team's head coach (it sure as hell wasn't the ownership, the facility, or anything else about the organization at the time). 

In 1996, Parcells hired his former defensive coordinator with the Giants, Bill Belichick, to be his assistant head coach/DBs coach. Belichick would only spend a year with the team, before following Parcells to the Jets. But in that one year, he established a relationship with owner Bob Kraft, which would eventually prompt him to abandon his job as head coach of the Jets to join the Patriots as HC in 2000. 

If the Pats don't blow a coverage against the Kelly Stouffer/Tommy Kane combination, who knows where the organization would be now? Maybe in St. Louis?

Also, if someone else took over the Pats, does that person trade the #2 pick for Steve Young? The 49ers were really interested in Rick Mirer.

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2 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Also, if someone else took over the Pats, does that person trade the #2 pick for Steve Young? The 49ers were really interested in Rick Mirer.

Wasn't Young entrenched as the 49ers QB at that point? 

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23 minutes ago, Starless said:

Wasn't Young entrenched as the 49ers QB at that point? 

He was coming off his first full year as a starter. Maybe the loss in the NFC Title Game caused some doubt, and the 49ers organization seemed to be in love with Mirer. That wasn't the only trade discussed, though. Another scenario had SF's whole draft going to NE for the chance to get Mirer.

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