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Examples of Butterfly Effect in football?


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7 hours ago, Shady Slim said:

if trump isn’t gazumped for the bills in ‘14 then he doesn’t become president 

my thoughts of his presidency (which are almost wholly negative, and i am leaving it at that so we don’t derail what is a great thread) aside, going off the exertions we saw of his with the USFL it would not have gone well for the bills had he won the race for their ownership i expect lol

5 hours ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

 

These scenarios may be the biggest of the last seven years in the NFL and in the world. For example, if Trump isn't president, the COVID-19 situation we have been in for the last year and a half probably doesn't exist.

 

Lettuce end this line of conversation because it violates forum rules, and this is a pretty cool thread otherwise.

 

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The Raiders trading up to 100 so they could get 1 spot ahead of the Cowboys and select Connor Cook. It was widely reported that the Cowboys wanted to select Cook but ended up taking Dak Prescott later in the 4th round after we jumped ahead of them to draft him. 

The following season the Raiders started 12-3 with Derek Carr before he got injured in week 16 against the Colts. Due to his injury Cook had to step in as the starter for our playoff game and we got destroyed by Houston. Had we drafted Dak Prescott instead we potentially could've made a deep run in the playoffs with him starting. And we hadn't given Carr his extension yet so we likely would've let Carr walk and would've had Dak on a rookie deal for the following few seasons which would've also likely allowed us to keep both Cooper and Mack. 

https://cowboyscoffeetalk.com/the-ones-that-got-away-top-5-near-misses-of-the-jerry-jones-era/

 

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On 9/9/2021 at 7:45 PM, biggie. said:

Here's one: SB47 (SF/BAL) is not only highly consequential in the NFL, it affected American politics.

1st & goal at the 7 yard line: hand off up the middle with...LaMichael James, who is much smaller and fumbled earlier in the game, instead of Frank Gore, who scored a touchdown and was playing very well. Ok.

2nd & goal at the 5 yard line: Kaepernick tries a bootleg to Crabtree. 

3rd & goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back, incomplete pass to Crabtree outside of the end zone. Shy would you not go for the end zone???

4th and goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back again despite BAL going on a blitz and overthrows Crabtree.

So not a single play action pass, Gore run or an RPO: the three things that got SF to the SB and maximized Kap's abilities.

If SF won:

1. Harbaugh wins his power struggle against GM Trent Baalke, meaning Baalke leaves the team instead.

2. With Harbaugh still around, Kaepernick never starts kneeling, which entirely changes the political landscape in America and he likely stays in the NFL.

3. WIth Kaepernick still on the team, SF never trades for Jimmy Garoppolo.

4. WIth SF never entering the Garoppolo sweepstakes, does that mean NE trades him to CLE as rumored or do they move on from Tom Brady earlier?

Dunno. I can't remember the score or time left, but maybe Baltimore still win? Maybe Kaep kneels anyway even though he's still got a team? Maybe the political landscape arrives at the same place just a couple years later? I think in this case we'd be roughly in the same spot. Harbaugh's career would be different though for sure

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During the MNF game between the 49ers and Packers in 1996, Don Beebe makes a catch going to the ground. He gets up and runs in for a long touchdown. Packers go on to beat the 49ers in overtime. However, Don Beebe is touched down on the play, but it's not called by the officials and replay is not a thing yet. If this play does not happen, do the Packers still win? If the 49ers win, the '96 playoffs look completely different. Instead of the Packers receiving homefield advantage, the 49ers do; leapfrogging the upstart Panthers, who had won the NFC West. The Packers finish with the #2 seed. Do the Packers beat the #3-seeded Cowboys in the divisional round, or are the Cowboys still too dominant for the Packers? If the Packers make it to the NFC title game, do they beat the 49ers on the road, or does Steve Young and co. get revenge for a year earlier?

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On 9/14/2021 at 2:26 PM, wiscsports1234 said:

During the MNF game between the 49ers and Packers in 1996, Don Beebe makes a catch going to the ground. He gets up and runs in for a long touchdown. Packers go on to beat the 49ers in overtime. However, Don Beebe is touched down on the play, but it's not called by the officials and replay is not a thing yet. If this play does not happen, do the Packers still win? If the 49ers win, the '96 playoffs look completely different. Instead of the Packers receiving homefield advantage, the 49ers do; leapfrogging the upstart Panthers, who had won the NFC West. The Packers finish with the #2 seed. Do the Packers beat the #3-seeded Cowboys in the divisional round, or are the Cowboys still too dominant for the Packers? If the Packers make it to the NFC title game, do they beat the 49ers on the road, or does Steve Young and co. get revenge for a year earlier?

The 96 49ers could have won that game, but they should have lost @Houston, @Washington, and at home against Cincinnati. That wasn't a great team. The Packers could have won in 3-Com Park again that year in the playoffs.

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On 6/24/2021 at 8:14 PM, biggie. said:

For those that don't know, the butterfly effect is when one small seemingly insignificant event ends up having huge ramifications. Like stepping on a spider causes World War 3 or something along those lines. It's also a great movie.

I stumbled upon this YouTube video that goes into detail how a largely forgotten 2011 regular season game between the Jets and Chiefs completely changed the course of the NFL.

What are other examples of the butterfly effect in the NFL?

Those were some weak-@ss calls against KC that cost GB the perfect season

refs strike again

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On 9/9/2021 at 11:45 AM, biggie. said:

Here's one: SB47 (SF/BAL) is not only highly consequential in the NFL, it affected American politics.

1st & goal at the 7 yard line: hand off up the middle with...LaMichael James, who is much smaller and fumbled earlier in the game, instead of Frank Gore, who scored a touchdown and was playing very well. Ok.

2nd & goal at the 5 yard line: Kaepernick tries a bootleg to Crabtree. 

3rd & goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back, incomplete pass to Crabtree outside of the end zone. Shy would you not go for the end zone???

4th and goal at the 5: Kaepernick drops back again despite BAL going on a blitz and overthrows Crabtree.

So not a single play action pass, Gore run or an RPO: the three things that got SF to the SB and maximized Kap's abilities.

If SF won:

1. Harbaugh wins his power struggle against GM Trent Baalke, meaning Baalke leaves the team instead.

2. With Harbaugh still around, Kaepernick never starts kneeling, which entirely changes the political landscape in America and he likely stays in the NFL.

3. WIth Kaepernick still on the team, SF never trades for Jimmy Garoppolo.

4. WIth SF never entering the Garoppolo sweepstakes, does that mean NE trades him to CLE as rumored or do they move on from Tom Brady earlier?

Ill simplify this. We took a TO on 2nd or 3rd down right as the ball was being snapped. The play call was a power run with Kaep (or gore) who literally would have walked into the endzone. 

All harbaugh had to do was not call the TO and we score an easy touchdown. 

 

I dont know if it would prevent kaep from kneeling though. It probably would have empowered him to kneel even more if we are being honest. Kaep was harbaugh's guy and it was clear he was not critical enough of him because he was not giving him the tough coaching he needed to develop as a QB. He straight up wasnt working on his weaknesses but was instead doing a lot of power lifting etc which inhibited his flexibility and thereby his throwing mechanics. 

 

I will take it one step further and say that there is a strong likelihood that the 49ers dont get Kyle Shanahan if we win that game, who is an infinitely better NFL HC than harbaugh. Harbaugh would have won the struggle with trent baalke but he would have gotten fired at some point. So I have very big mixed emotions with it. On one hand, I was too young to count the last 49ers ring as mine own. So im still waiting on #1, but it feels like we have a much better chance to for sustained success with our current coach, but a ring is a ring and that group of 49ers players deserved it.

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On 6/27/2021 at 12:37 PM, Apparition said:

The Patriots hosted the Seahawks in week 3 of the 1992 season. The Pats gave up a conversion on 3rd and long to Tommy Kane on a Seahawks 1st quarter drive, which set Seattle up at the New England 2-yard line. On the next play, Chris Warren would score the game's only touchdown.

Seattle won 10-6. At the end of the season, this gave New England the tiebreaker for the first overall pick in the 1993 draft. 

The Patriots would go on to select Drew Bledsoe with the pick. But more importantly, having the #1 overall pick was thought to be what enticed Bill Parcells to become the team's head coach (it sure as hell wasn't the ownership, the facility, or anything else about the organization at the time). 

In 1996, Parcells hired his former defensive coordinator with the Giants, Bill Belichick, to be his assistant head coach/DBs coach. Belichick would only spend a year with the team, before following Parcells to the Jets. But in that one year, he established a relationship with owner Bob Kraft, which would eventually prompt him to abandon his job as head coach of the Jets to join the Patriots as HC in 2000. 

If the Pats don't blow a coverage against the Kelly Stouffer/Tommy Kane combination, who knows where the organization would be now? Maybe in St. Louis?

That game had an impact, but there was another game that year that had a bigger impact: The Den@Sea MNF game that the Seahawks won in OT.

If they didn't come back to send it to OT, they would have ended up 1-15 anyway, and they keep Bledsoe in-state.

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41 minutes ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

That game had an impact, but there was another game that year that had a bigger impact: The Den@Sea MNF game that the Seahawks won in OT.

If they didn't come back to send it to OT, they would have ended up 1-15 anyway, and they keep Bledsoe in-state.

Eh. I always put more stock in head-to-head matchups in such matters. 

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