Dak's Progression

[DaBoys]

We have a good running game so you are ASSUMING something. That's anecdotal. Dez leads our team in yards, all of Brice Butlers big catches have been contested jump balls, Witten was open with his one hander against the 9ers? Can you post 14 pic's of the wide open TD passes?

 

Where is your actual proof that all of Daks game/yards/TDs come from wide open receivers?  

[DaBoys]

54 minutes ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Being open and getting separation are not directly correlated at all. You can get open by separating, but you can also be open via scheme, which is clearly what I am alluding to when I state that the running game opens up the pass. I am not claiming your receivers get more separation, never have. I am claiming that because Zeke and your Oline provide a dominate running game(fact) that opposing defenses have to scheme towards stopping that(fact) which therefore makes Dak job easier as it takes the focus off the passing game and creates holes in defenses. It isn't anecdotal, it happened numerous times today, it has happened numerous time in previous games, and it is fairly easy logic to follow.

Also I agree Dez and Witten aren't separation guys. When is Witten getting the ball? When he finds a hole in the zone aka when he is open. Your statement about Dez not separating is literally what I said earlier and is evidence that Dak is not confident at throwing to covered receivern. Dez has flat out not had the same impact since Dak came to town? Has he regressed some? Maybe, but it is more likely that Dak just isn't as good as getting him the ball as Romo was. Romo was extremely good at throwing accurate jump balls and tight window throws, Dak isn't. That is why Dez's numbers have dropped.

So no, not anecdotal, and certainly not hypocritical. Dak is very good and throwing safe passes and being efficient. He isn't an incredibly accurate QB who can fit the ball in tight pockets consistently, at least not yet. If you disagree I would question how you think he was so incredibly efficient as a rookie? Your receivers had a very low drop rate(I believe the lowest in the league). So either your QB was incredibly accurate and your receivers were all extremely reliable(less likely) or they had fewer contested catches because they were open when the ball was thrown to them(much more likely). Was he really that accurate? Or was he just executing the offense well? My conclusion is that he was throwing to open receiver more often and checking down when people were covered, which again is not a bad thing. It just points to the fact that he is much more risk adverse than a QB like Wentz. Is one style better or worse? I don't know, they both seem to be successful in their own ways.

As far as the broad conjecture of the Eagles offense based on four plays in one game, I will say it is highly likely you don't know what is actually happening on the field. The game is too complicated to completely understand what a team's offense is doing by just watching the tape, if that was the case your offense wouldn't be successful past a few weeks. Carson is doing way more than you are giving him credit for in terms of reading the field both pre and post snap. If he was actually on training wheels(which he absolutely isn't), there would be plenty of people talking about it, not just you. @Dallas94Ware 

And if Dak benefits from his run game, Wentz has his defense to mask him.  You guys are #1 in the league against the run meanwhile Dallas is bottom 5 allowing 4.5 YPC. Our Defense is known for blowing leads that our offense built.

 

If Wentz came over here with his 5 picks 7 fumbles and 22 sacks he wouldn't be 7-1.

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

8 hours ago, DaBoys said:

And if Dak benefits from his run game, Wentz has his defense to mask him.  You guys are #1 in the league against the run meanwhile Dallas is bottom 5 allowing 4.5 YPC. Our Defense is known for blowing leads that our offense built.

 

If Wentz came over here with his 5 picks 7 fumbles and 22 sacks he wouldn't be 7-1.

Think if he threw for 19 TDs, had the highest success rate on 3rd down, and threw for TDs at the second highest rate in the league, he would be successful on most teams.

[Dallas94Ware]

9 hours ago, DaBoys said:

For the record I disagree that Wentz is not doing well or just as good. I will willingly admit he has a better arm and is doing some things better than Dak. But he has 22 sacks 5 picks and 7 fumbles. Dak has 9 sacks 4 picks and 1 fumble. He is doing some things better than Wentz. 

 

D94W is probably in the minority here. Wentz was our forums favorite QB coming out that year. We aren't surprised he's doing well.

I think a big portion of what Im saying is going heavily overlooked. 

Let me make this clear:

I am NOT down on Wentz nor saying he is not having a good year nor am I saying he isnt playing very very well.

I am saying that as a whole, what he is asked to do right now, is not the entire pie like Dak is being asked to do. And once more, thats not a knock, as it would be poor coaching to ask Wentz to jump straight to that after 1 year away from the ncaa division he played in. Nor do I think he cannot do it in time. I would say I agree with what his coaches ask of him particularly because 1. Its working very well and 2. Asking too much too quickly of a QB with his background could only damage his future, not help it.

[Dallas94Ware]

9 hours ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Being open and getting separation are not directly correlated at all. You can get open by separating, but you can also be open via scheme, which is clearly what I am alluding to when I state that the running game opens up the pass. I am not claiming your receivers get more separation, never have. I am claiming that because Zeke and your Oline provide a dominate running game(fact) that opposing defenses have to scheme towards stopping that(fact) which therefore makes Dak job easier as it takes the focus off the passing game and creates holes in defenses. It isn't anecdotal, it happened numerous times today, it has happened numerous time in previous games, and it is fairly easy logic to follow.

Also I agree Dez and Witten aren't separation guys. When is Witten getting the ball? When he finds a hole in the zone aka when he is open. Your statement about Dez not separating is literally what I said earlier and is evidence that Dak is not confident at throwing to covered receivers. Dez has flat out not had the same impact since Dak came to town? Has he regressed some? Maybe, but it is more likely that Dak just isn't as good as getting him the ball as Romo was. Romo was extremely good at throwing accurate jump balls and tight window throws, Dak isn't. That is why Dez's numbers have dropped.

So no, not anecdotal, and certainly not hypocritical. Dak is very good and throwing safe passes and being efficient. He isn't an incredibly accurate QB who can fit the ball in tight pockets consistently, at least not yet. If you disagree I would question how you think he was so incredibly efficient as a rookie? Your receivers had a very low drop rate(I believe the lowest in the league). So either your QB was incredibly accurate and your receivers were all extremely reliable(less likely) or they had fewer contested catches because they were open when the ball was thrown to them(much more likely). Was he really that accurate? Or was he just executing the offense well? My conclusion is that he was throwing to open receiver more often and checking down when people were covered, which again is not a bad thing. It just points to the fact that he is much more risk adverse than a QB like Wentz. Is one style better or worse? I don't know, they both seem to be successful in their own ways.

As far as the broad conjecture of the Eagles offense based on four plays in one game, I will say it is highly likely you don't know what is actually happening on the field. The game is too complicated to completely understand what a team's offense is doing by just watching the tape, if that was the case your offense wouldn't be successful past a few weeks. Carson is doing way more than you are giving him credit for in terms of reading the field both pre and post snap. If he was actually on training wheels(which he absolutely isn't), there would be plenty of people talking about it, not just you. @Dallas94Ware 

Actually I only used a few plays as an example to save time. But if you would like more examples, I can do that, as my office is slow today. Also, these examples are NOT a small portion of his plays but a complete representation of what he is doing on the field.

And before I get to more examples, I will add this again to make myself crystal clear once more: I AM NOT DOWN ON WENTZ. It would be horrendous coaching to ask him to do more than what he is doing, given his background. And the fact he is doing it well so quickly says a f-ton about what the future has in store for Wentz if given the right amount of time and learning. How this kid went to the school he went to and didnt end up at some bigtime SEC school or something is beyond me, because he has the physical tools places like OKState and Florida etc look for when recruiting, and seems to be a pretty smart guy to boot.

Onto more examples:

Vs Redskins last week, 21 yard pass to Ertz before the TD to Clement:

Ertz has a clear route designation based on footwork: attack the hashes off the release and get up field, separating a notoriously weak center coverage of Washington and getting the ball on the safeties. Agholor remains shallow and comes across the formation to the potentially vacated area of coverage - the choice for Wentz is to read the interior coverage. If it bites on Agholor, it goes to Ertz. If it steps back with Ertz, its a dump to Agholor. The route on the other side is a deep corner directly into obvious deep half coverage. The safety cannot ignore this, and must roll to the corner, keeping coverage away from Ertz in the middle, affording Ertz a mismatch in the open field. Wentz takes the snap, stares blatantly down the seam waiting for his choice to need to be made - the linebacker steps forward to cover Agholor, and Ertz gets a strike delivered to him. Good play call, good play design, but still a single element to read off of.

Vs Sf, TD to Jeffery:

A straight safety split play, which to be fair, is a staple in most offenses with a big body vertical style receiver. However Ill use it anyway. Two vertical routes, one to the inside one to the outside. Which way does the safety go? He cant go both directions. Safety steps in for what appears to be a post, and is beaten by Jeffery on the outside vert. A staple, but again, a single read, a play design kept simple. No other reads or choices needed.

The 2pt conversion to Jeffery:

A bit more impressive considering the timing and placement that was needed, but still a complete lack of multi tiers here in terms of design. A straight play design where Jeffery is the only real option, the other routes luring coverage. Hard to be 100% certain but I do think there is a TE alternative here with a slant and button pattern in front, not usually a route designed to pull coverage, but because of the tight confines of the end zone its tough to be sure. Never the less, the read was based on man vs zone. Jeffery wins the man, and I would assume the ball goes to the TE on zone. One choice, one read, a decisive throw.

I could do more if you like, but Id be interested to read some of your breakdowns of Dak struggling with coverage and the play designs Carson is running that you feel are as multi faceted as the ones Dak is running before I continue.

[DaBoys]

2 hours ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Think if he threw for 19 TDs, had the highest success rate on 3rd down, and threw for TDs at the second highest rate in the league, he would be successful on most teams.

Right, maybe 4-3 or 5-2 here. 

 

[Dallas94Ware]

I think the bigger argument to make rather than Wentz vs Dak considering what is asked of each of them, is Dak vs Watson, again considering what is asked of each of them.

Watson, from his first snap, was thrown into the deep end - full on four tier reads with two and three combinations to decipher more often than the single tier, one choice stuff. Even Daks first few games were relegated to single choice throws.

Watson is doing the same as both Dak and Wentz in his ability to keep a play alive by using his legs, or extending a drive by running. Moreso than Wentz and Dak, even.

But beyond the running, and beyond the complexity of his system, he is doing something the Patriots have done for a very long time: Mastering the simple stuff and building off of the near impossible defense of the mastered simple stuff by running a complex version for a bigger gain.

Example: A simple wheel, slant, flat designation. The prime 1980s west coast offense playcall. Tough to stop, easy to run, and when mastered is at the least a 3-4 yard gain everytime. Texans with Watson, as with Brady and the Pats, run this play about 5 times a game. But then, just when a defense sees it coming, that slant turns into a sluggo and the wheel flattens and turns inward for a dig designed to halt the coverage and free the sluggo for a deep throw. Suddenly an easy read play design turns into a two read complex situation with a very tough throw to make if the deep read is available, and Watson executes this. Its not easy for a veteran, let alone a rookie. Watson makes himself look like a five year vet throwing this route combination. 

Dont get me wrong here either. Dak throws some tough combinations also. But he does not get risky with the ball and all gunslingery, often picking the safer option. Which, in the example above, would involve the sluggo throw only against a cover 1, and a quick throw to the flat against anything greater. Which is safe and effecient football, a far cry from the gunslinger Romo days. Watson, however, plays with balls to the wall there and will take that sluggo against cover 2 as long as man coverage designates it as an option. Very gunslinger. Risky. With big payoffs. 

Im loving Watson, I truly am. Hes playing like a veteran, aside from some clear rookie mental lapses (throwing a seam route against cover 3? Come on dude! My HS QBs knew better than that). But the kid is by far the most exciting young passer out there, making the tough three tier and four tier reads from day 1, playing like a risk taking all or nothing gunslinger, with the moxie confidence and guts of a real star. 

Their styles are very different. Id put Watson more in a category with Romo than Prescott, based on how they sling it and how they gamble. But, if you had to make me pick for the long term.who to lead my team...I think Id still go with Dak only because safer play tends to win more games than the high turnover potential of the gunslinger (again, See: Tony Romo's career)

But man I love watching this Watson kid play ball. And he is lucky the Jets passed om him, Cleveland too. Neither have the pieces in place that allow him to do what hes doing. He went to the perfect team for him. Houston, dare I say it, may actually start being a contender beyond banking on Watt and co. to hold teams to 13 pts.