Robinson extension unlikely to get done

[dll2000]

8 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think we have to have 2 lists to replace Robinson,

Mooney takes a big step

1. Robby Anderson

2. Michael Gallup

3. D.J Chark

Mooney is just a #2

1. Chris Godwin

2. Courtland Sutton

3. Robby Anderson

I think Mooney is too thin to make a primary WR.  Its just physics that he is going to get banged up from time to time.  

I know everyone gets banged up, but I think each hit Mooney takes brings a higher probability of injury simply due to his size.  

[abstract_thought]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think Mooney is too thin to make a primary WR.  Its just physics that he is going to get banged up from time to time.  

I know everyone gets banged up, but I think each hit Mooney takes brings a higher probability of injury simply due to his size.  

This. Tyreek Hill is short but carries plenty of muscle on his frame. Mooney is thin. He's more of a secondary target that will make some big plays. But if Mooney is the focal point of an offense, he's going to get hurt.

The Bears just invested in a young QB. Now's not the right time to experiment with what-ifs or pie-in-the-sky optimism. If Robinson goes, there should be a plan to replace him with a comparable, proven veteran. Easiest way to ruin Fields' development is to surround him with a bunch of unreliable players.

And by plan, I mean a real plan. Not, "We'll hope for a blockbuster trade and if it falls through we'll give up multiple picks to move up and draft a rookie."

Edited July 12, 2021 by abstract_thought

[G08]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think Mooney is too thin to make a primary WR.  Its just physics that he is going to get banged up from time to time.  

I know everyone gets banged up, but I think each hit Mooney takes brings a higher probability of injury simply due to his size.  

I love how he fights for extra yardage, but if there's a clean kill-shot coming just get the F out of bounds.

[soulman]

While Mooney is on the small side with a slim build it's not inconceivable that much like Tarik Cohen he could add another 10lbs without losing any speed or acceleration.  NFL teams seem to be pretty good at optimizing a players size based on their body type and build.  Quite a few people thought Cohen would prove too small to be an effective NFL RB yet it was a freak injury on a PR that caused his injury.

That said I can't conceive of this offense without the need for a dependable "chain mover" whose as dependable as ARob has always been.  The question is can Pace find or draft one with better speed whose a better fit for the downfield passing game Nagy must be licking his chops over now that he has Fields.  We don't seem to have that type of WR on the roster right now.

I suspect using the tag was what Pace felt was best for the Bears even at the risk of poisoning the well with ARob.  If ARob is asking for more than Pace is willing to spend he's still keeping his options open as far as re-evaluating the #1 WR position next winter and potentially using a non-exclusive rights tag allowing ARob to shop himself but still retaining the rights to match any offer he receives.

On the other hand if a better prospect can be had for less in FA he has that option as well.  Somehow I don't believe Pace will depend entirely on the draft to replace him.  The lesson learned from drafting Kevin White should be a permanent sticky note in this calendar next March.

Edited July 12, 2021 by soulman

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

I love how he fights for extra yardage, but if there's a clean kill-shot coming just get the F out of bounds.

He is tough and he plays hard despite being small in a land of giants.  Nagy even used him as a lead blocker on more than one occasion.    And he did better at it than Holtz did on same plays!  Unbelievable. 

Holtz would have been seeing that on a loop if I was coach.

Americans love that.  Humans love that.    Why he is so popular at moment.

Still doesn't change physics.  As for Cohen, Cohen is small, but has a thicker build and has been playing RB his whole life.   He is still an injury concern, but less so.

 

[G08]

5 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

He is tough and he plays hard despite being small in a land of giants.  Nagy even used him as a lead blocker on more than one occasion.    And he did better at it than Holtz did on same plays!  Unbelievable. 

Holtz would have been seeing that on a loop if I was coach.

Americans love that.  Humans love that.    Why he is so popular at moment.

Still doesn't change physics.  As for Cohen, Cohen is small, but has a thicker build and has been playing RB his whole life.   He is still an injury concern, but less so.

 

Cohen has a very thick lower body, can squat a Mack truck.

[Sugashane]

8 hours ago, G08 said:

Cohen has a very thick lower body, can squat a Mack truck.

Somewhat related, I remember someone claiming he had a 700 pound squat his rookie year and me and that person had a HELL of a fight about it. lol. Finally had to show his BS when the IPL raw record for 181lb class for men is under 650 pounds, so there was no way a young RB who was not training SOLELY for powerlifting was going to beat that.

 

 

[AZBearsFan]

On 7/11/2021 at 5:26 PM, dll2000 said:

I think Robinson is a great football player, but he is complimentary.  More a 1a than a 1 because he lacks high end explosive ability.

I dunno… DeAndre Hopkins (4.57 40) Michael Thomas (4.57) and Davante Adams (4.56) sure look like #1s to me.

To me a #1 is a guy who can make plays at all 3 levels and who consistently open and productive regardless of the competition. Robinson has checked both boxes despite being saddled with boat anchor QBs his entire career.

Even if it means overpaying to what you think he’s worth, you can’t let Robinson walk. His presence gives Fields the best chance to become what you want him to become, and Fields is making < $5M per until 2025. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I dunno… DeAndre Hopkins (4.57 40) Michael Thomas (4.57) and Davante Adams (4.56) sure look like #1s to me.

To me a #1 is a guy who can make plays at all 3 levels and who consistently open and productive regardless of the competition. Robinson has checked both boxes despite being saddled with boat anchor QBs his entire career.

Even if it means overpaying to what you think he’s worth, you can’t let Robinson walk. His presence gives Fields the best chance to become what you want him to become, and Fields is making < $5M per until 2025. 

It seems as though Pace feels differently about this or he would have taken the steps necessary to assure himself and his team that the rest of ARob's most productive year were spent here.  Nothing we've learned so far seems to indicate he's done that.  Much the opposite really.

I don't see an issue with finding someone with more speed but finding another with his dependability is where the problems may begin and to be honest I don't trust Pace's ability to actually improve upon ARob.  Obviously my vote doesn't count but IMHO letting ARob walk is a huge mistake.

 

[abstract_thought]

7 hours ago, soulman said:

I don't see an issue with finding someone with more speed but finding another with his dependability is where the problems may begin and to be honest I don't trust Pace's ability to actually improve upon ARob.  Obviously my vote doesn't count but IMHO letting ARob walk is a huge mistake.

Pretty much how I feel. It's fine to want a different fit and type of player, but you have to replace those 100+ targets somehow. Finding an option as proven as ARob for significantly less money seems dubious.

[soulman]

For me this has been the biggest enigma of the entire offseason.

The Bears would like to retain ARob and ARob has said he would like to stay in Chicago.  So why have they been able to get as deal done.

 

Man on the spot
WR Robinson approaches deadline with tag in place

By Dan Wiederer Chicago Tribune

Allen Robinson has exactly what he wants now. Well, maybe not exactly what he wants. But perhaps he is positioned well to make the best of his situation.

What Robinson really wanted heading into the 2020 season was a long-term contract extension with the Chicago Bears. And what he still wanted this past spring and into the summer was a financial reward from the Bears front office — a monetary commitment and not just kindhearted compliments — for his production, leadership and dedication.

He got neither.

Instead, Robinson will head into his eighth NFL season playing on the franchise tag, which in his case means a solid payday of $18 million for 2021 but also drops him into a contract year for the third time in five seasons.

The deadline for the Bears to give Robinson a long-term extension arrives Thursday afternoon, and it almost certainly will pass with no action to speak of. Barring an out-of-nowhere twist or a total fold by one side, the extension Robinson covets won’t come.

At 3 p.m. Thursday, league rules will prohibit the Bears and Robinson from signing a new contract until after the season — at the earliest.

So now what?

Robinson has no choice but to use this season to show the Bears — and the rest of the NFL — what he believes he’s worth. It’s a chance to put his talents on display again in an offense that has used him as a life raft for much of the last two seasons and undoubtedly will lean on him again.
Even without contractual satisfaction, Robinson has another opportunity to solidify his place among the best receivers in the NFL. That’s a big part of what he wants to do.

In June, with a self-critical eye, Robinson expressed his desire to improve the 12.3 yards per catch he posted last season. In a quest to become more involved inside the red zone, he said he has studied defenses in depth to find more ways to get himself unlocked.

He has pushed to get stronger and to increase his top-end speed and speed endurance. He also stressed his desire to make more big plays, turning 8-yard catches into 12-yard gains or 15-yarders into 20.

Rating scale

Is Robinson a top-tier playmaker, a top-15 or top-10 talent at his position? Without question.

Does he deserve recognition as one of the game’s truly elite receivers? That remains up for debate, and it’s at the epicenter of the drawn-out staring contest between Robinson’s representatives and the Bears front office.

Excluding 2017, when Robinson tore his ACL in the season opener with the Jacksonville Jaguars, he has averaged 82 catches, 1,087 yards and seven touchdowns over his last five full seasons. All while catching passes from Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel and Nick Foles.
Last season Robinson recorded 102 receptions, a total bested in Bears history by only Brandon Marshall in 2012. Only four Bears receivers — Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Robinson and Jeff Graham — have put up more receiving yards in a season than the 1,250 Robinson had last year.
For those who need additional assistance finding the company Robinson has kept statistically in recent years, the receiver’s Twitter thumbs frequently find the like button on nuggets that illuminate his excellence.

CBS Sports HQ, for example, noted that Robinson’s 47 contested catches over the last two seasons are an NFL best. And that he is one only four players — along with DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce and Darren Waller — to record at least 90 receptions and 1,000 yards in both of those seasons.

Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, tracked Robinson’s 51 targets inside the red zone over the last three seasons without a drop. Robinson, according to PFF, also made 22 contested catches for at least 20 yards last season, a number bested only by Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley and Kelce, who all had 23.

Robinson won’t exit his 20s until August 2023, so there’s plenty of gas left in the tank. And given his drive and work ethic, there’s little reason to believe he won’t remain productive well beyond that.

So why has Bears general manager Ryan Pace — a major proponent of rewarding productive players who help establish a selfless culture within the locker room — been reluctant to lock up Robinson for the long haul? That’s where things get murky.

Both sides have been successful over the last year-plus in concealing the hang-ups in their negotiations from the public. There have been few if any leaks of what the Bears’ best offer to Robinson has been. Just as there have been no hints of what Robinson and his camp would accept as a fair deal.

All that is known is the chasm between the sides has been massive for some time and hasn’t narrowed.

’Things I can control’

Asked about the ongoing contract uncertainty during minicamp last month, Robinson stuck to his talking points.

“I’m just focusing on things I can control — coming back and being the best player I can be and trying to help the offense continue to improve,” he said. “That’s the main focus for me right now.”

For what it’s worth, the market for receivers during free agency this year was severely depressed. After major revenue losses from the pandemic-affected 2020 season shrank the league’s salary cap by 8% for 2021, even the best receivers on the market struggled to cash in the way they had hoped.

Kenny Golladay, who missed 11 games because of injury with the Detroit Lions last season, landed the biggest contract among receivers but settled for four years and $72 million with $40 million guaranteed from the New York Giants.

Will Fuller took a one-year, $10.6 million “prove it” deal with the Miami Dolphins. JuJu Smith-Schuster re-signed for one more season with the Pittsburgh Steelers for $8 million.

And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit Chris Godwin with the franchise tag, and he will make slightly less than $16 million this season if he and the Bucs don’t agree on an extension this week.

You won’t find much argument that Robinson is superior to that quartet. But for now, jackpot paydays for receivers have been put on pause.
In some league circles, there’s a belief Robinson should be seeking a deal similar to the ones signed last year by the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen and the Dallas Cowboys’ Amari Cooper. Allen signed a four-year, $80 million extension with $43 million in guarantees in September. Six months earlier, Cooper landed a five-year, $100 million deal with $60 million guaranteed.

Certainly the Bears should be willing to reward Robinson similarly, right?

But what if Robinson wants more — much more? What if he and his camp see him as every bit as valuable as Hopkins, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill? Would a request for $25 million annually register as outlandish? Or would it be seen as fair market value for a dependable, consistently productive and low-maintenance playmaker?

Hopkins received an average of $27.5 million in the two-year extension he signed with the Arizona Cardinals last year, a contract that now runs through 2024. Adams, entering a contract year with the Green Bay Packers, figures to land at least that much in annual value when he signs his next deal. And the three-year, $54 million deal Hill signed in the fall of 2019 is already outdated.

Window of opportunity

Still, while Robinson has earned the right to seek the biggest long-term deal possible, Pace and his staff have a much more complicated puzzle to piece together.

According to the NFL’s public salary-cap report, the Bears have a little more than $6.5 million in cap room for 2021. That’s not much. And the situation will remain complicated into 2022, even with an expected increase of the cap after this year.

The uncertainty of what that cap number will be presumably leaves the Bears feeling more comfortable playing a waiting game as it relates to Robinson’s future with the team.

Had the pandemic not blown up cap forecasts for 2021 and beyond, perhaps a deal with Robinson would have been easier for Pace and chief contract negotiator Joey Laine to work through.

As it stands, the team is in an uncomfortable position with one of its best players and most respected leaders left without the financial reward he feels he has earned.

After skipping two weeks of voluntary organized team activity practices this spring, Robinson returned for mandatory minicamp and made his presence felt in a positive manner.

“He just has such a quiet calm and confidence to him,” Bears coach Matt Nagy said. “You can see the guys out there throwing him the football and the things that he’s doing and he just slides on in.

“The one sneaky thing about A-Rob that I think is pretty cool is even if he’s not here, you know he’s working his tail off. And he’s always in great shape.”

In the “control what you can control” department, Robinson will check into training camp in two weeks in shape and in the right mindset. He can focus on his approach and effort, hoping it leads to another big season.

The Bears offense has a chance to make substantial strides in 2021. And even with Nagy vowing to feature David Montgomery more in the running game and looking to get more action in the passing game for second-year targets Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, Robinson should remain a go-to weapon for quarterbacks Andy Dalton and, eventually, Justin Fields.

The presence of Dalton and Fields, two talented and aggressive deep-ball throwers, should add to Robinson’s chances to increase his production.
Another round of contract negotiations with the Bears — and perhaps a flurry of other teams — awaits, but not until 2022. Robinson hasn’t received the contract he wants. Still, he should have every opportunity to make this season his best yet.

[dll2000]

On 7/12/2021 at 8:58 PM, Sugashane said:

Somewhat related, I remember someone claiming he had a 700 pound squat his rookie year and me and that person had a HELL of a fight about it. lol. Finally had to show his BS when the IPL raw record for 181lb class for men is under 650 pounds, so there was no way a young RB who was not training SOLELY for powerlifting was going to beat that.

 

 

Tony Siragusa says whenever someone asks what he lifts in any category he says 800.

He says how much someone lifts is overrated in football.

I tend to agree. 

Functional strength, ability to use leverage and flexibility to keep from injury are things I value.

When I was in middle school in 80s weight rooms became a big thing in HS’s.

For football coaches put up these chalk boards and whoever had biggest bench or squat was listed up there.

It was intimidating.  Then pads came on and a lot of these big lifters couldn’t play or hit a lick.

 

 

 

[soulman]

Putting some numbers to the ARob stalemate;

Chris Emma of WSCR-AM 670 reported Robinson wanted $20 million and the Bears never budged off of $16 million, although they are paying him the $17.9 million for this franchise tag.

So now Robinson will wait until next year to see if he is going to receive a second consecutive tag or get a contract before free agency of 2022 to come back to the Bears. The other option would be for the team to trade him if they found a trade partner willing to take on a big contract.

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, soulman said:

Putting some numbers to the ARob stalemate;

Chris Emma of WSCR-AM 670 reported Robinson wanted $20 million and the Bears never budged off of $16 million, although they are paying him the $17.9 million for this franchise tag.

So now Robinson will wait until next year to see if he is going to receive a second consecutive tag or get a contract before free agency of 2022 to come back to the Bears. The other option would be for the team to trade him if they found a trade partner willing to take on a big contract.

If the Bears really never moved off of $16M then they don’t deserve Robinson. Golladay got $18M in THIS market and Robinson is a more accomplished player of the same age who’s also coming off a healthy season where Golladay is not.

That said, everyone seems to assume that a 2nd tag next year for Robinson would be preclusive for the Bears, and I don’t think it is. With a $17,880,000 salary for 2021 Robinson can be tagged again next year for 120% of that, or $21,456,000. That’s a ton, but it’s doable if that’s the route they go while trying to see if they have another #1 in waiting over the next 2 seasons. I don’t like it, but it’s an option they have and, apparently, seem set to at least consider next offseason. 

[soulman]

9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

If the Bears really never moved off of $16M then they don’t deserve Robinson. Golladay got $18M in THIS market and Robinson is a more accomplished player of the same age who’s also coming off a healthy season where Golladay is not.

That said, everyone seems to assume that a 2nd tag next year for Robinson would be preclusive for the Bears, and I don’t think it is. With a $17,880,000 salary for 2021 Robinson can be tagged again next year for 120% of that, or $21,456,000. That’s a ton, but it’s doable if that’s the route they go while trying to see if they have another #1 in waiting over the next 2 seasons. I don’t like it, but it’s an option they have and, apparently, seem set to at least consider next offseason. 

If it's more than just a rumor I agree and I'll go even farther and say it's insane.  If Pace was willing to spend nearly $18 mil on his tag in a year when an extension could have saved him $8-$10 mil in cap and not have at least  made an offer that would have averaged $18 mil per year I can only see it as a huge mistake.  One of his worst and I'm including that deal he gave Quinn.

Yes, he could tag him again and over two years average paying him just under $20 mil per year but at what impact on his cap?  If all Pace was offering was a deal averaging $16 mil per year no wonder ARob walked and no further progress has been made.  With enough guaranteed $$$ and a decent structure a compromise at $18 mil might have been reached.

Pace's other option is to do what he did with Fuller.  Tag him with a non-exclusive rights tag giving him the option of matching his best offer but then he's agreeing to pay him based on someone else's terms not his just like he did with Fuller and it bit him in the *** this year when the cap declined and we lost our #1 CB.  I don't agree with how this has been handled at all.