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In 18 of the last 20 seasons a 4th place team won their division the following year. Last season it was the Football Team. Here is the list of the 2020 last place teams. 

SF 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
NY Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos

Which, if any, will win their division and why?

The obvious answer is the 49ers, because they are better than they showed last year, but I am going with the Eagles because of the weakness of the division.

J

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I like Jacksonville and Philly 

I think Hurts is an upgrade over Wentz. They get Brooks back and I think Lane Johnson missed a lot of last year so they’re line could go from major liability to a strength. And Devonta Smith is awesome.

Lawrence should be a huge upgrade and the run game could be dominant with Robinson, Etienne, and Shenault and possibly Tebow doing the gadget ****. And the play action could be lethal. I think Chark is going to explode. 

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SF and Philly have excellent opportunities. 

I'll throw in hehind Cincy too. Pittsburgh is on a downhill slide and I'm just not enamored with Baltimore or Cleveland enough to say either is a slam dunk over Cincy. I really like a lot of the moves they've made.

If Rodgers isn't playing in Green Bay, I might even give some consideration to Detroit. I really really really like what they've done this off season. Minnesota and Chicago are good, but neither scare me.

The rest have absolutely zero chance of winning their divisions. Jacksonville might be a competitive 3rd place team. Atlanta might be a competitive 2nd place team. The Jets and Broncos probably finish 4th again. 

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49ers
Eagles
Jags

These are the only three I see with a chance. The 49ers is obvious because of the talent but I still don’t think they will be better than LA. Eagles are in an easy division where weird things can happen and maybe Hurts breaks out. Jags would be a pretty big surprise but if Wentz completely sucks and the Titans don’t transition well to a new OC or a Rash of injuries occur, I could see the Jags stealing it with like 9 wins.

Id say likelyhood is somewhere around 

49ers: 35%
Eagles: 25%
Jags: 10%
 

The other teams I don’t see anyway they finish 1st.

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12 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

49ers
Eagles
Jags

These are the only three I see with a chance. The 49ers is obvious because of the talent but I still don’t think they will be better than LA. Eagles are in an easy division where weird things can happen and maybe Hurts breaks out. Jags would be a pretty big surprise but if Wentz completely sucks and the Titans don’t transition well to a new OC or a Rash of injuries occur, I could see the Jags stealing it with like 9 wins.

Id say likelyhood is somewhere around 

49ers: 35%
Eagles: 25%
Jags: 10%
 

The other teams I don’t see anyway they finish 1st.

I mostly agree with this

49ers are right in the ballpark with the whole division when healthy. Eagles are in a trash division. I'd push the Jags down a notch though. I'll also give the Falcons a shot. Obviously Tampa is a threat, but I'm not sold on either the Saints or the Panthers this year. The Bengals would also be on my list if the division wasn't so strong.

I don't even think I see a mircle path for the Lions, Jets, or Broncos to do it

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The Niners are the only ones with a good chance.

Outside possibilities are Denver, Detroit if Rodgers doesn't play, and Jacksonville if T-Law really is God.

Atlanta's in a tough spot. Even if Ryan has one more good year in him and Pitts is the ultimate weapon, Tom Brady's Bucs are still there and the Saints are the same team that won the division minus a proven starting QB.

The Eagles are the worst of a bad lot, yes, but their rivals all have a clearer path to recovery than they do. New York is building a top ten defense, Washington has that plus Fitzmagic, and Dallas are a different team with a healthy Dak. 

In Cincy's case, so many things would have to go wrong for all three of their rivals that I don't wish that on any division. Same for the Jets.

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7 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

I'm just not enamored with Baltimore or Cleveland enough to say either is a slam dunk over Cincy. I really like a lot of the moves they've made.

dont have to be enamored with them but the Ravens and Browns both have by far better overall rosters and HCs coaches compared to cincy

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Just now, buno67 said:

dont have to be enamored with them but the Ravens and Browns both have by far better overall rosters and HCs coaches compared to cincy

And San Francisco had a better overall roster and HC than to finish 4th last year....which is literally the point of the discussion so.....

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16 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

I'll throw in hehind Cincy too. Pittsburgh is on a downhill slide and I'm just not enamored with Baltimore or Cleveland enough to say either is a slam dunk over Cincy. I really like a lot of the moves they've made.

Obviously anything can happen, but the Bengals have shown zilch at this point compared to any other team in the division.   And even if the Steelers are sliding, they still have a pretty decent amount of talent around the roster.   So unless Burrow comes back strong, and they improve immediately in a number of areas, they have a far better chance of finishing last than first.

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14 hours ago, Tk3 said:

I mostly agree with this

49ers are right in the ballpark with the whole division when healthy. Eagles are in a trash division. I'd push the Jags down a notch though. I'll also give the Falcons a shot. Obviously Tampa is a threat, but I'm not sold on either the Saints or the Panthers this year. The Bengals would also be on my list if the division wasn't so strong.

I don't even think I see a mircle path for the Lions, Jets, or Broncos to do it

In regards to ATL:

First time HC and a bunch of new guys on defense trying to gel has me believing it’s too much to overcome in one year to win a division. I have them fighting for 3rd with Carolina and if McCaffrey stays healthy I think the Panthers are much better.

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Im going with Atlanta. There is a history of this kinda thing in the NFC South, but without Drew, the division is much weaker, and while TB12 is still there, it still means 2 more wins. Given TB will likely have a tougher schedule, its not impossible that Atlanta finishes with a better record by 1 or two games. 

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On 7/18/2021 at 12:13 AM, ronjon1990 said:

And San Francisco had a better overall roster and HC than to finish 4th last year....which is literally the point of the discussion so.....

Well if they were healthy... 49ers issue was they had way too many important players on IR last year. 
 

cincy is maybe a dark horse but highly unlikely. burrow has to show he is healthy and they have to Prove they can protect him

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On 7/17/2021 at 11:13 PM, ronjon1990 said:

And San Francisco had a better overall roster and HC than to finish 4th last year....which is literally the point of the discussion so.....

It's one point of discussion. Another point is opportunity.

For example, after SF Denver has the best roster. I they had a competent QB, they are a legit 9-8 team. With Aaron Rodgers, 11-6 or 12-5. Even with that huge addition, they would still have to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs. So, no one is giving Denver much of a shot.

The flip side is Philly, where the reigning division winner had seven wins, but everyone else was worse. If the Eagles get even decent QB play and figure out a running game, they'll have an offense to go with a solid defense. In a division where 9-8 should win, they have a shot.

This brings us to the 49ers who play in the deepest division in the NFL. After all, the 49ers were 4th. They will have to fend off the Rams, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals, where the Cards are probably good enough to win the Eagles' division. Beating any one of them is likely. Beating all three is more problematic. 

J

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