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Packers close to agreement with Aaron Rodgers for 2021 season (Aaron Rodgers thread v3)


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2 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Different time.

With the rookie pay scale, teams are incentivized to look to compete on years 2 and 3 on a rookie's deal while you're getting a starting signal caller for a bargain, and before committing to him with a massive contract.

Rodgers was always sort of the exception to the rule anyway, even at the time.

The 6 SBs before the rookie scale:
Winning QB age- 28.2 yrs
Player Exp- 6.9 yrs

9 SBs after the rookie wage scale:
Winning QB age- 33.8 yrs
Player Exp- 11.7 yrs

Remove Brady and it’s still:
Winning QB age: 29 yrs
Player Exp- 6.6 yrs

So while teams may rebuild fastest with a rookie QB, we’re still looking at a league where the QB winning it all, is the veteran QB more often than not. Rodgers would then present a far more likely option to win than a young inexperienced year two QB to win it all.

So no it doesn’t make the most sense to trade him away and start with the young QB regardless of if it gets you a few more cheap seasons on his rookie QB deal.

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1 minute ago, diamondbull424 said:

The 6 SBs before the rookie scale:
Winning QB age- 28.2 yrs
Player Exp- 6.9 yrs

9 SBs after the rookie wage scale:
Winning QB age- 33.8 yrs
Player Exp- 11.7 yrs

Remove Brady and it’s still:
Winning QB age: 29 yrs
Player Exp- 6.6 yrs

So while teams may rebuild fastest with a rookie QB, we’re still looking at a league where the QB winning it all, is the veteran QB more often than not. Rodgers would then present a far more likely option to win than a young inexperienced year two QB to win it all.

So no it doesn’t make the most sense to trade him away and start with the young QB regardless of if it gets you a few more cheap seasons on his rookie QB deal.

You're missing part of the point.

Yes you want to compete during the period you're on your rookie year but you need that time to give him enough actual reps to develop & evaluate if he's worth a big contract.

Obviously Rodgers gives them a better chance to win the Super Bowl this season. No one's disputing that.

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12 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Oviously Rodgers gives them a better chance to win the Super Bowl this season. No one's disputing that.

Why emphasize "this season"? The chances of Aaron Rodgers winning another SB in his career > the chances of Love ever winning a super bowl in his career as a starter. That's with treating Love as an unknown and Rodgers as a 37 year old Rodgers.

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4 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

It's gonna take two firsts, a second, cornerback Johnson Bademosi, and offensive lineman Julién Davenport or Houston says no deal and the whole thing falls apart.

Houston will just trade @ET80and put him out of his misery... and into a slightly better situation that most likely ends in misery, but he can have a semblance of hope for a majority of the season.

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8 minutes ago, Dr LBC said:

Houston will just trade @ET80and put him out of his misery... and into a slightly better situation that most likely ends in misery, but he can have a semblance of hope for a majority of the season.

...so, I'm a Rams fan now? Ok... cool.

We move back to St Louis yet?

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2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

...so, I'm a Rams fan now? Ok... cool.

We move back to St Louis yet?

I was saying that you'd be the make-weight in the Cobbs deal, thus making you a Packer fan.  But thinking about it again, that's probably asking Green Bay to give up too much.

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3 hours ago, Norm said:

I will still tinfoil hat that they might have thought there was going to be no season. Such a weird order of picks after what we saw this year. 

Dude, I’ve been saying this to anyone that will listen, since Day 2 of that draft. I swear it seemed the Packers were drafting with the intention that there would not be an NFL season due to Corona. It was a bet they made and it was also one they lost. However, I can get behind why they were in that mindset all things considered.

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4 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

You're missing part of the point.

Yes you want to compete during the period you're on your rookie year but you need that time to give him enough actual reps to develop & evaluate if he's worth a big contract.

Obviously Rodgers gives them a better chance to win the Super Bowl this season. No one's disputing that.

The ultimate goal of every team is to win SBs, so that’s the ultimate point and ultimately the only point that’s most worth banking on IMO.

Rodgers currently gives them the best chance at doing so, Love is an unknown- probably even so in a large enough part to GB considering COVID-19’s impact on development for rookies in general.

You stated that not trading Rodgers and rolling with Love is somehow an admission of Love’s inadequacy in the post I quoted. I am simply countering that it’s not. Because even if Love is impressing behind the scenes, you don’t trade Rodgers away after he just won the MVP award. Can you imagine the optics if GB trades away Rodgers and he wins a ring the following season?

Regardless of how good Love looks, he would be compared to what could have been with Rodgers in 2021. So again, regardless of how Love looks, it makes the most sense optically, statistically (odds), and developmentally (Love learning behind the MVP) to go with Rodgers this season vs trading him.

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17 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

So if the Packers win the SB…. Nvm 

Green Bay isn't even going to win the division.  The Vikings will win 12 games this year.  I've been saying it all off season.

Mark my words.

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10 hours ago, Nick_gb said:

Dude, I’ve been saying this to anyone that will listen, since Day 2 of that draft. I swear it seemed the Packers were drafting with the intention that there would not be an NFL season due to Corona. It was a bet they made and it was also one they lost. However, I can get behind why they were in that mindset all things considered.

That's an interesting theory, Nick.  It makes a lot of sense when you look back on it.

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14 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

Its not about Higgins, call it Michael Pittman or even Laviska Shenault. Point is, very talented and theres a good chance they could have helped GB in 2020. 

Look.  I wanted a WR as well.  But there was no one there to step in and get meaningful snaps over what we had.

As has been pointed out, as a WR in this offense, you need to run block and run block really, really well.  Lazard is excellent at it, and was inserted into a game a few years ago because #12 wanted him on the field.  He had already earning Rodgers' trust.  No rookie was playing over Lazard.  And Lazard may not be fast, but he works really well in our offense.

MVS knew the system, could block, and offered a great size/speed option.  No rookie was getting snaps over him.  And he got better as the year went on.  He's the guy that I think gets a "surprise" extension during the season.

Then you have Adams.  No rookie was taking snaps away from him.

About the only way a rookie makes an impact at WR last year was via injury.  Even then, the rookie would have had to of beat out ESB.  I don't have a lot of use for ESB, so it may have happened.  So maybe via injury a rookie would have seen the field.

Then we are left with our jet motion WR/RB.  Ervin had that role and was fine.  But got hurt.  Austin did it, and didn't do it very well.  Maybe a rookie WR could have taken over that role and been a returner.  Which is exactly what GB got this past draft with Rogers.  Not sure that role is worth a second round pick, though I do think Shenault could have done that and done it well.  That role isn't Higgins, and it isn't Pittman.  I really liked Claypool, but that isn't a role for him either.  And maybe Shenault was more power than speed and quickness.  But if there was one that could have been drafted that could have gotten some meaningful snaps, it's Shenault.

I still would have preferred Claypool.  Bring him around slowly so that we have a developing WR on the roster for the future.

And I'm not taking any of those receivers over Love.  Also, I would have loved trading down to acquire picks and then taking Claypool.  I would have preferred that over taking Love how they did.

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9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

The ultimate goal of every team is to win SBs, so that’s the ultimate point and ultimately the only point that’s most worth banking on IMO.--Disagree.  On the franchise side, it's about money.  Profitability.  That is done via the team on the field.  I'd agree that for some players who have never won a Super Bowl, yes it is a big motivator.  But not as big a motivator as securing a high end contract with a lot of guaranteed dollars.  And once that first SB win is under their belts?  It is all about the money for the players.  

Rodgers currently gives them the best chance at doing so, Love is an unknown- probably even so in a large enough part to GB considering COVID-19’s impact on development for rookies in general.--Yes, Rodgers give them the best chance at winning a Super Bowl for probably the next 2-3 years.  You forget, though, that Rodgers was regressing prior to last year.  He wasn't bad, not at all, but he was not Godgers.  Last year he strengthened his legs, core and worked on his throwing motion.  As he gets older, he needs to keep the core strong and keep up with leg day if he is going to continue to be an elite QB.  It ain't getting any easier for Rodgers as he ages.

You stated that not trading Rodgers and rolling with Love is somehow an admission of Love’s inadequacy in the post I quoted. I am simply countering that it’s not. Because even if Love is impressing behind the scenes, you don’t trade Rodgers away after he just won the MVP award. Can you imagine the optics if GB trades away Rodgers and he wins a ring the following season?--Rodgers was trying to force a trade.  The optics would have been on him.  It'll be interesting to see what happens when he is gone and Love takes over.  It will take Love a year or two before we really see what we have there.  Starting experience.  At least there is a plan.

Regardless of how good Love looks, he would be compared to what could have been with Rodgers in 2021. So again, regardless of how Love looks, it makes the most sense optically, statistically (odds), and developmentally (Love learning behind the MVP) to go with Rodgers this season vs trading him.--Yes, it is the ideal situation.  Love gets a real "rookie" season complete with pre-season games.  GB keeps an all time great under center, then they both try to figure out 2022.  Only thing I can think of that could be a negative is Rodgers' attitude.  Like we've already nailed down the date of the divorce hearing.  But now it seems like we are going through marriage counseling.  Feels "off" to me.  Hopefully I'm wrong and hopefully he is all in.

 

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