NBA Off-Season Thread: Giannis >

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, MKnight82 said:

I'm higher on Simmons than most, but that offer is basically Simmons plus a bunch of late first round picks.  I would much prefer the Warriors offer and I'd also call the Pelicans and ask if they'd put a deal involving Brandon Ingram together (stole this idea from Bill Simmons podcast).

They could also include Thybulle in the deal as well. But either way if Beal wants out he can just opt out next summer and he can pretty much force his way to one of his preferred destinations since teams know that. 

Based on the rumors that the Pelicans are all in on Lowry and just traded for Jonas, I don't think they'd be interested in moving Ingram for Beal.

[seminoles1]

I think Schroeder is going to get a rude awakening in free agency and he will very much regret turning down the 4 year, $84 million deal from the Lakers.

[Sllim Pickens]

18 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Unless Beal forced his way to the 76ers there are likely much better offers out there for Beal.

I was thinking its an overpay.  One player is awful on offense but the best in the game on D.  The other is awful on D and a top 10 offensive player.  Simmons is younger and locked in for a while so if I am Washington, I'd jump all over that even without the picks.  People are hard core undervaluing Simmons after his few bad playoff games.  

[MKnight82]

Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

I was thinking its an overpay.  One player is awful on offense but the best in the game on D.  The other is awful on D and a top 10 offensive player.  Simmons is younger and locked in for a while so if I am Washington, I'd jump all over that even without the picks.  People are hard core undervaluing Simmons after his few bad playoff games.  

One player is playable in the last 10 min of a playoff game and the other isn't.

[kyle21121]

I am now thinking (not knowing anything definitively) that the chances of Toronto getting Simmons seem very real. Assuming it’s centred on Lowry S&T and wouldn’t included #4 or OG what is a reasonable deal on Philly’s end? 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I was thinking its an overpay.  One player is awful on offense but the best in the game on D.  The other is awful on D and a top 10 offensive player.  Simmons is younger and locked in for a while so if I am Washington, I'd jump all over that even without the picks.  People are hard core undervaluing Simmons after his few bad playoff games.  

Again, Beal just became the 6th player in NBA history to put up consecutive 30+ ppg seasons, and is the only player other than Jordan to score 30+ on 48%, IIRC. We've seen Beal defend at about a slightly below average level when he didn't have to carry such a huge scoring load, which he wouldn't have too in Philly. Ideally they'd keep Thybulle and add a veteran PG that can defend. 

[NYRaider]

45 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

One player is playable in the last 10 min of a playoff game and the other isn't.

If the 76ers made a move for Beal while also being able to keep Thybulle I think they'd be fine defensively. I think in a perfect world they'd make a deal for Beal centered on Simmons/Maxey/Milton/picks. Then make a move for a veteran PG, someone like Rondo would make sense. 

Maybe something like

Clippers receive: Seth Curry

Philadelphia receives: Rajon Rondo 

Which would give Philly a starting 5 of:

Rondo - Beal - Thybulle - Harris - Embiid

[Sllim Pickens]

52 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

One player is playable in the last 10 min of a playoff game and the other isn't.

That one player wasn't playable over a three game stretch.  In his career including playoffs, he has been good enough shooting FTs that teams dont hack him.  3 games don't define the player or if they did, Beal would be trash too.  

Also, Simmons under contract longer, younger, and still room to improve.  People are underrating him because of recency bias.  

[Sllim Pickens]

11 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Again, Beal just became the 6th player in NBA history to put up consecutive 30+ ppg seasons, and is the only player other than Jordan to score 30+ on 48%, IIRC. We've seen Beal defend at about a slightly below average level when he didn't have to carry such a huge scoring load, which he wouldn't have too in Philly. Ideally they'd keep Thybulle and add a veteran PG that can defend. 

I get that.  But if you take the best of both worlds of Beal pre scoring load when he played ok defense, his PER and BPM are the same as Ben's have been every year of his career or lower.  Ben is being trashed for three games but Beal gets a pass for 2 years on D because he scored more (not more than he gave up though)?  Before those three playoff games, a Beal for Simmons swap would have been a steal for Washington, who could lose him for nothing.  Those three games happened, and should be considered but you can't act like a career 60% FT shooter will be a 15% shooter for his career going forward. 

[NYRaider]

14 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Also, Simmons under contract longer, younger, and still room to improve.  People are underrating him because of recency bias.  

Simmons has value but he has to be in the right situation to succeed as we've seen in Philly, even playing with 3 other All-Star caliber players they haven't been able to win. 

I also think that people's doubts about his room to improve are justified. 

Year 1: 15.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 8.2 apg on 54% FG/56% FT

Year 2: 16.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 7.7 apg on 56% FG/60% FT

Year 3: 16.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 8.0 apg on 58% FG/62% FT

Year 4: 14.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 6.9 apg on 55% FG/61% FT

[kyle21121]

Morey just asked for Lowry, FVV, OG and #4 for Simmons I don’t know what reality we are living in or what is the actual reality of his worth but while fans may be overreacting and devaluing Simmons due to recency bias their front office is delusional on the other end of it. 

[NYRaider]

13 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get that.  But if you take the best of both worlds of Beal pre scoring load when he played ok defense, his PER and BPM are the same as Ben's have been every year of his career or lower.  Ben is being trashed for three games but Beal gets a pass for 2 years on D because he scored more (not more than he gave up though)?  Before those three playoff games, a Beal for Simmons swap would have been a steal for Washington, who could lose him for nothing.  Those three games happened, and should be considered but you can't act like a career 60% FT shooter will be a 15% shooter for his career going forward. 

PER is one stat but it doesn't paint the whole picture. Beal has proven to be one of the truly elite scorers in the league over the last few seasons, he has just been on terrible teams. 

You've made the argument that Beal can't be a leading scoring option on a winning team because his scoring hasn't translated to winning in Washington. But based on what we've seen with other guys in similar positions I think that's a pretty unreasonable argument. 

Devin Booker averaged 25.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.3 apg on 48/34/87 splits while being a -1.5 DBPM player on an NBA finals team this season. He has been a negative DBPM player his entire career and Phoenix hadn't even sniffed the playoffs until they added Chris Paul and guys like Ayton/Bridges came into their own this year. 

Brad Beal averaged 31.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg on 48/35/89 splits while being a -1.7 DBPM player. So you don't think there's any chance that if he got to a much better team he could replicate what Booker just did? 

Anthony Davis was putting up MVP level production in New Orleans and they made the playoffs 2/7 years with him, so obviously his style of play isn't one you can win with, right? 

[NYRaider]

Quote

David Aldridge: Tommy Sheppard says neither Bradley Beal nor his representatives have requested a trade. He says he continues to believe that there are FAs who would “love” to play with Beal & Russell Westbrook, though the Wiz only have the non-taxpayer MLE when free agency starts this weekend.

 

– 

[Sllim Pickens]

7 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

PER is one stat but it doesn't paint the whole picture. Beal has proven to be one of the truly elite scorers in the league over the last few seasons, he has just been on terrible teams. 

You've made the argument that Beal can't be a leading scoring option on a winning team because his scoring hasn't translated to winning in Washington. But based on what we've seen with other guys in similar positions I think that's a pretty unreasonable argument. 

Devin Booker averaged 25.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.3 apg on 48/34/87 splits while being a -1.5 DBPM player on an NBA finals team this season. He has been a negative DBPM player his entire career and Phoenix hadn't even sniffed the playoffs until they added Chris Paul and guys like Ayton/Bridges came into their own this year. 

Brad Beal averaged 31.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg on 48/35/89 splits while being a -1.7 DBPM player. So you don't think there's any chance that if he got to a much better team he could replicate what Booker just did? 

Anthony Davis was putting up MVP level production in New Orleans and they made the playoffs 2/7 years with him, so obviously his style of play isn't one you can win with, right? 

This isn't so much about Beal as it is Simmons.  I get Beal has value, some think more than I do.  Ben also has value, it just isnt about scoring.  And I didn't give just PER.  BPM they are similar, win shares they are similar.  Other than those three games Ben showed to have equal value to Beal and is younger and on a longer contract. 

[NYRaider]

Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

This isn't so much about Beal as it is Simmons.  I get Beal has value, some think more than I do.  Ben also has value, it just isnt about scoring.  And I didn't give just PER.  BPM they are similar, win shares they are similar.  Other than those three games Ben showed to have equal value to Beal and is younger and on a longer contract. 

For Philadelphia though they've come up short in the playoffs with Simmons/Embiid surrounded by extremely talented teams. All the advanced stats aside, Simmons is limited as a scorer and his inability to score outside of the paint makes it hard for them to win in the playoffs because Embiid is also at his best around the rim. Beal is legit one of the best pure scorers in the league and a good playmaker as well. Assuming Philly keeps Thybulle and can add a veteran PG that defends well, I don't think Beal's defense would be an issue. Thybulle/Embiid are both All-NBA defensive guys.