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How does NFL history change if Kelly's Bills won?


notthatbluestuff

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On 7/24/2021 at 11:22 PM, Malik said:

Cornelius Bennet becomes a Hall of Famer. If the Cowboys lose even 1 of them maybe Troy Aikman is no longer in the Hall. Definitely not if they lose 2 to the Bills

Biscuit should be in the hall regardless.

8 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Other than Marino, who I messed up, is there anyone better? Here's the list:


Fran Tarkenton

Steve McNair

Matt Ryan
 

 

Those three I'd say are better than Kelly.

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23 minutes ago, onejayhawk said:

We'll disagree on McNair and Ryan. Tarkenton is hard to judge.

Matt Ryan has 5.4% higher completion %, 20,000 more passing yards, 17 less interceptions (in 2 more years), INT rate lower by 1.3%, Higher AY/A by 0.7 yards, 10 points higher in passer rating, 9 more 4th quarter comebacks, 10 more game winning drives. Objectively, Matt Ryan is a better than Jim Kelly. And it's really not close.

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1 hour ago, scar988 said:

Matt Ryan has 5.4% higher completion %, 20,000 more passing yards, 17 less interceptions (in 2 more years), INT rate lower by 1.3%, Higher AY/A by 0.7 yards, 10 points higher in passer rating, 9 more 4th quarter comebacks, 10 more game winning drives. Objectively, Matt Ryan is a better than Jim Kelly. And it's really not close.

Objectively the league is more QB friendly now than it was 25-30 years ago, but it is fair to say that Matt Ryan is a Probably better passer than Jim Kelly. I'll still take Kelly as my QB in a draft. 

J

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2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Objectively the league is more QB friendly now than it was 25-30 years ago, but it is fair to say that Matt Ryan is a Probably better passer than Jim Kelly. I'll still take Kelly as my QB in a draft. 

J

If Ryan had the defenses that Kelly had during Jim's career, the Falcons would have been to more than just 1 Super Bowl with Ryan as QB. Kelly had some of the best defenses and running games backing him up and making him look better than he was.

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1 hour ago, scar988 said:

If Ryan had the defenses that Kelly had during Jim's career, the Falcons would have been to more than just 1 Super Bowl with Ryan as QB. Kelly had some of the best defenses and running games backing him up and making him look better than he was.

Highly debatable in a division that had Brees and Payton as well as the Panthers dominant mini-run. 

Matt Ryan has gone to the playoffs 6 times in 13 seasons- 08, 10, 11, 12, 16, and 17. 

In 09, he was meh. In 13, 14, and 15, he was pretty average outside of garbage stats. 18, 19, 20 he's been good but only really great looking in 2018. 

Out of 09, 13, 14, 15, 18, 19, and 20, what extra years do you honestly see the Falcons making the playoffs, much less going all the way? 

Of his seasons:

08- had a borderline top 10 D. Crapped the bed in the Wildcard against an Arizona team that was about as close to a destiny team as possible. Rookie year, no worry. 26/40 199 2-2 playoff stat line. Arizona's D made Atlanta look nearly inept. 

09- 9-5 as a starter, 14th ranked D, Ryan was below average on the whole and Atlanta missed the playoffs. New Orleans and Minnesota were GREAT on both sides of the ball. Atlanta getting in over Green Bay or Philadelphia would be a possibility, but they weren't getting past NO or MIN with Ryan's play. 

10- 20-29 186 1-2 in a playoff beatdown by Green Bay, 48-21. Falcons had a top 5 D. This outcome isn't changing unless Ryan himself plays much, much better.  

11- Pretty bad D (18th ranked). Atlanta finished 10-6 and lost in the playoffs 24-2 with Ryan going 24/41 199 0-0. When your offense is totally shut out like that, you could field the 85 Bears' D and you're still losing. 

12- Top 5 D. Ryan's best season to this point. Gets his first playoff win against Seattle going 24/35 250 3-2. Loses the NFCCG to San Fran with a 30/42 396 3-1 performance worthy of making it to the finale. This season was worthy of a Superbowl, so let's say they go. He now has 1 appearance, and who knows. That Ravens team was crazy good. 

13- 4-12 stinker season. Horrid D. Ryan himself set personal highs for attempts and completions but his 26-17 td-int ratio was nothing to write home about. A great D might've gotten Atlanta to the playoffs, but Seattle, Carolina, and New Orleans stood in the way, with the first 2 being on runs of dominance. Ryan's performances throughout the season don't lend to a likelihood of running the table in the playoffs.

14- 6-10 year. Ryan's performance improved. Superbowl worthy? Doubtful. 

15- D improved into the top 1/2 of the league. Ryan's season lackluster though with a 21-16 td-int ratio. Playoffs maybe with a top tier D, but they would have been absolutely carrying the offense to anything meaningful (aka: making him look way better than he was that year). 

16- Brilliant run by Ryan that speaks for itself. Made the Superbowl. In this scenario, it would be Superbowl #2. Maybe a win even, unless Tom decided to Tom anyway. Not stopping that. Regardless, we're talking appearances, and this would be his 2nd. 

17- top 10 D. Ryan was good but not as great as the previous year. He was ok in the playoffs, certainly didn't do much wrong, the chips just fell in Foles' lap. I'm willing to go 50/50 here. The Falcons weren't spectacular in the playoffs, but were close enough against the eventual champions to make an argument. Maybe his 3rd Superbowl appearance, maybe not. 

18- Ryan was robbed by a pitiful D. No argument here. He played a Superbowl worthy year. With the benefit of the doubt, we'll say appearance #4 given that he pretty much copied his MVP year. 

19 and 20- pretty bad D. Ryan played well, but not "he got robbed of a Superbowl" well. It would take huge leaps of faith to say either Falcons team would've been in the Superbowl either of the last two seasons. 

 

So at best, absolute best case scenario without going full Falcons homer and fantasy booking, a top tier D would give Ryan 4 total appearances, one being decidedly 50/50, making it a wash with error on the side of Kelly still having more. 

It's easy to forget, but Matt Ryan has played with some very good Defenses in the past, as well as run games, which made him look better than the sum of his performances. 

Outside of the 2016 Superbowl and MVP run, he's 2-5 in the playoffs with a 65.6 completion rating, averaging 236 yards per playoff game, and an 11-7 td-int ratio, or, 1.5-1. Not like he's been absolutely spectacular in the post season. Even projecting a possible 4 appearances, as I have here, it's still a stretch to get even with Jim Kelly, much less surpass him. 

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4 hours ago, scar988 said:

If Ryan had the defenses that Kelly had during Jim's career, the Falcons would have been to more than just 1 Super Bowl with Ryan as QB. Kelly had some of the best defenses and running games backing him up and making him look better than he was.

Even if what you say is true, it argues against Ryan. Kelly had to play against better defenses, in an era where the running game was more central to the offenses.

This is why it is hard to compare players across a sizeable time gap. I respect your opinion, but I don't agree.

J

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On 7/25/2021 at 1:07 PM, onejayhawk said:

The Bills were better than the Giants, but got outplayed. The other three were not close. It was a weak period in the AFC. 

The big change is that Jim Kelly is just another HoF QB rather than the best QB never to win a Super bowl. 

J

Nah, Buf got blown out by a great Was team and crushed by maybe the best team in the Cowboys dynasty but they were right there in the 2nd game vs Dallas. With a smidge of luck, they're 1-3; with things going their way in the 2nd Dallas game, they could easily have been 2-2. But no way do they win the other 2. 

 

As far as the rest, it's basically "who make the HoF?" Maybe Kent Hull and Bennett sneak in because they have 2 rings vs 0, though the HoF still would mistakenly put in Reed. 

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That's about right. Buffalo was better than NYG and comparable to one Dallas team. The other two years they were a clear underdog and were blown out. All four opponents had elite defenses. The four year run was more a tribute to the weakness of the AFC than the Bills' strength.

J

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55 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I don't know how NFL history changes, but it sure would have been nice to see that team win at least one of those Super Bowls.

Some horrible games in that run. Washington was up 24-0 in the 3rd quarter, what a yawner. Following year was Cowboys 52, Bills 17. Then Cowboys 30, Bills 13. 

Not a good time for interesting 4th quarters of Super Bowls. But that very exciting Giants-Bills game never fails to deliver, I've probably watched that game 10 times on Youtube

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