Why we are not screwed with the cap in 2022 and beyond

[Brit Pack]

I rate Gute highly. I have loved the moves he has made since he has got here. Aggressive when he can be in FA and aggressive in the draft in moving up and down and around.

The conception I hear is that we have kicked the can down the road too much and that next year we are going to have to pull this roster apart. Gute in his presser said they have to bear the pain for some of the moves they have done this offseason but it really ain't that bad.

So let’s look at 2022 (I’m using Spotrac for these figures) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/2022/

48 players under contract. Predicted cap to be $208m. We are $40m over the cap

Obvious moves

Move 1: Cut Preston Smith = $12m relief
Move 2: Cut Cobb = $8.25m relief
Move 3: Extend Jaire = Currently on $13m hit and extension will bring that figure down to about $7m = relief of $6m
 

Adjust contracts

Move 4: Convert $8m Kenny base salary and convert it into a signing bonus = $4.7m cap relief
Move 5: Bakh has a $10m roster bonus, convert that into a signing bonus = $6.6m cap relief

Through these moves we have created $37.55m

Extensions

Move 6: Extend Z, his contract is at $28m, you could create $16m by releasing him but he’ll be 29 in 2022 and worth an extension. Not sure what that deal would look like but I’m sure it will create space
Move 7: Amos would be entering the final year of his deal in 2022, he’ll be 29 again ripe for an extension, cap hit of almost $12m, we gain $8m by releasing him but extending him would create space

Borderline cuts

Billy Turner gets you $4m BUT why do it.
Cut Lowry, not sure you would do this = $4m cap relief
Cut Crosby, only do it you had a down year

Main move

 In 2022, before all this hoohah, we already had to either cut or extend Rodgers, his cap hit would have been $40m, dead cap is $17m.  Trading him looks quite likely at this stage. Not sure what the reworked deal would be but assuming his roster bonus of $6.8m becomes a signing bonus would be the easiest move and then maybe taking another few million from his base salary of $14.7m this year into a signing bonus. In total probably pushes another $6m into next year making the cost of a trade in 2022 $23m in dead cap but creating $17m in space.

In summary

Simple moves get you $34m
Trading Rodgers another $17m  
Extensions to Z and Amons probably another $15m (maybe more or less)
We create $66m in cap space

$40m to get us under the cap
$8m to sign rookies and get the roster up to 51 and some rollover
$18m is there to sign FA’s and Adams if we want to

Are we screwed in 2023?

Looking briefly into 2023 Spotrac estimates cap will be $218m (I reckon it will be higher), they have us at $133m cap commitment (that is with Rodgers still on the books), $84m in cap space. Plenty of space to push some of these contracts down the road in 2022, as I have done above and we'll have space to retain high priced contracts for Jaire and Adams and extensions for Z and Amos, and sign up MVS, Tonyan if we deem it necessary and also if we want it, a bit of fun in FA.

So all looks good for another window starting 2023, by then Love would have taken his lumps as a starter in 2022 and now we have the space to load up and kill it!!!

Go Pack Go


 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Brit Pack

[pacman5252]

We aren’t completely screwed, we will definitely take lumps though. 

[AlexGreen#20]

It's not hard to get under the cap:

The Packers are currently $48 million over it. Call it 50 with draft pick requirements.l

Rodgers lowered his cap hit this year by 9.5 million, that will roll over assuming it isn't used to sign Davante, that gets our cap space up to $8.5ish million for 2021.

Rodgers is traded: That saves 18ish million.

Never has a player been more cut than Randall Cobb, that will clear 8.5ish million. 

Zadarius Smith is extended. Even giving him a 4/90 deal to tear up his last year with that $28 million dollar cap hit gives you a scenario where you're paying around $20 per in year one (which is really high) you've now cleared 8ish million.

Preston Smith is extended. I have no idea what this contract will look like, so let's be conservating and call this 3ish million in savings.

Kenny Clark is restructured to save 4.5ish million next year. 

You wouldn't need to backload Jaire even if you didn't want to.

The cost of all of this is obviously Davante

Not that you couldn't retain him, but it does make the math harder. Considering the contract he's going to want, it will be hard to keep his year one contract below 10 million.

Sullivan, Funchess, Lucas Patrick, Lazard, MVS, JK Scott, Hunter Bradley, Funchess and ESB are all also free agents. 

The hope is that all of these guys play themselves out of our price range next year but if that doesn't happen you hope:

Sullivan is cheap

One of the young guys makes Patrick replacable

You sign the two cheapest of Lazard/MVS/Funchess/EQ

JK Scott is brought back

Hunter Bradley is resigned for the league minimum

[Old Guy]

31 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

It's not hard to get under the cap:

The Packers are currently $48 million over it. Call it 50 with draft pick requirements.l

Rodgers lowered his cap hit this year by 9.5 million, that will roll over assuming it isn't used to sign Davante, that gets our cap space up to $8.5ish million for 2021.

Rodgers is traded: That saves 18ish million.

Never has a player been more cut than Randall Cobb, that will clear 8.5ish million. 

Zadarius Smith is extended. Even giving him a 4/90 deal to tear up his last year with that $28 million dollar cap hit gives you a scenario where you're paying around $20 per in year one (which is really high) you've now cleared 8ish million.

Preston Smith is extended. I have no idea what this contract will look like, so let's be conservating and call this 3ish million in savings.

Kenny Clark is restructured to save 4.5ish million next year. 

You wouldn't need to backload Jaire even if you didn't want to.

The cost of all of this is obviously Davante

Not that you couldn't retain him, but it does make the math harder. Considering the contract he's going to want, it will be hard to keep his year one contract below 10 million.

Sullivan, Funchess, Lucas Patrick, Lazard, MVS, JK Scott, Hunter Bradley, Funchess and ESB are all also free agents. 

The hope is that all of these guys play themselves out of our price range next year but if that doesn't happen you hope:

Sullivan is cheap

One of the young guys makes Patrick replacable

You sign the two cheapest of Lazard/MVS/Funchess/EQ

JK Scott is brought back

Hunter Bradley is resigned for the league minimum

Correct, but you did forget Tonyan on the list of free agents! He will also be out of our price range if he puts up anything close to what he did in 2020. For some reason I thought Lazard was restricted FA next year? 

Also, it is probably more likely than not that either Funchess or EQ, probably EQ are down the road this year with the Cobb addition. 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Old Guy

[vegas492]

I don't know.  I'd rather just enjoy 2021 without worrying about future cap stuff.  Too many moving parts for me to get concerned about any of it right now.

[incognito_man]

Yes. 2022 cap numbers are all fake right now. It will look wildly different in 7months.

[R T]

6 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I don't know.  I'd rather just enjoy 2021 without worrying about future cap stuff.  Too many moving parts for me to get concerned about any of it right now.

Agree, they have pushed all in and fans may as well enjoy it now. 2022 will see the removal of some big names, but the Packers will keep the young talent on board and just reload. The future will be fine. 

[gopackgo972]

 

 

[pgwingman]

7 minutes ago, R T said:

Agree, they have pushed all in and fans may as well enjoy it now. 2022 will see the removal of some big names, but the Packers will keep the young talent on board and just reload. The future will be fine. 

Yeah that's where I'm at too. I'm ok with a year of rebuilding, I just don't want to see Love's rookie years be bogged down with cap restrictions from the Rodgers era. Looks like it'll be a reload but not a complete rebuild.

[vegas492]

10 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Yeah that's where I'm at too. I'm ok with a year of rebuilding, I just don't want to see Love's rookie years be bogged down with cap restrictions from the Rodgers era. Looks like it'll be a reload but not a complete rebuild.

I've thought all along that this is scenario out there where Love's rookie deal doesn't really help us and Aaron plays through it all.  The Love is back on a short term deal with limited money to be the starter.  If he produces nicely, he will get a pay bump right away, kind of like Rodgers did in the early years.  And I'm good with that.  It isn't like Love's second contract is going to be for top 5 money, so there should be ways to manage the club nicely moving forward in that scenario.

[mikemike778]

41 minutes ago, R T said:

Agree, they have pushed all in and fans may as well enjoy it now. 2022 will see the removal of some big names, but the Packers will keep the young talent on board and just reload. The future will be fine. 

This.

You can get under the cap as suggested. But why ?   Constantly restructuring contracts just leaves you in a permanent fight against the cap.  With every restructure each contract gets worse and  the future dead money rises. You are going to be left with a growing number of old regressing players on bad contracts.  Its just terrible roster management. You need  to make the cap be your friend with you having an advantage over other teams and being able to sign young improving players.

If we are going with Love then we probably aren't challenging so it makes sense to clean the cap.  Cutting Z seems obvious to me and wouldn't consider signing Adams. Get rid of the bad contracts and get the younger players locked up.

If we are somehow going to stick with Rodgers then its another matter. You pretty much have to keep going with the cap kicking for at least another year and keep the window open.

Sometimes you have to be a man/woman/other and make some proper decisions instead of fudging your way through and digging a hole.

Every single restructure makes us less competitive in future years - every restructure means we have less money than other teams. They make perfect sense if you are stretching your window. Not if you have a raw new QB.

Yes it will make 2022 more challenging for Love. But beyond that it gives him a much better chance if he isn't fighting against a mountain of dead money and bad contracts for old and increasingly injury prone players.

Trying to restructure our way of 2022 would be a sign of weak management.  Enjoy 2021 and have a real crack at it and then get your house in order.

Edited July 29, 2021 by mikemike778

[Brit Pack]

46 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

This.

You can get under the cap as suggested. But why ?   Constantly restructuring contracts just leaves you in a permanent fight against the cap.  With every restructure each contract gets worse and  the future dead money rises. You are going to be left with a growing number of old regressing players on bad contracts.  Its just terrible roster management. You need  to make the cap be your friend with you having an advantage over other teams and being able to sign young improving players.

If we are going with Love then we probably aren't challenging so it makes sense to clean the cap.  Cutting Z seems obvious to me and wouldn't consider signing Adams. Get rid of the bad contracts and get the younger players locked up.

If we are somehow going to stick with Rodgers then its another matter. You pretty much have to keep going with the cap kicking for at least another year and keep the window open.

Sometimes you have to be a man/woman/other and make some proper decisions instead of fudging your way through and digging a hole.

Every single restructure makes us less competitive in future years - every restructure means we have less money than other teams. They make perfect sense if you are stretching your window. Not if you have a raw new QB.

Yes it will make 2022 more challenging for Love. But beyond that it gives him a much better chance if he isn't fighting against a mountain of dead money and bad contracts for old and increasingly injury prone players.

Trying to restructure our way of 2022 would be a sign of weak management.  Enjoy 2021 and have a real crack at it and then get your house in order.

Well in 2023 we have $84m cap space on the assumption that the cap will only be at $218m, per Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/2023/
I'm assuming Rodgers is already long gone, that frees up another $28m
The other Aaron, Jones, has a salary of $20m and a dead cap hit of $6.5m, so most likely he is gone.

Therefore we'll have 125.5m in space with about 30 players under contract. Add in rookies from 2022 and 2023 and we'll be close to 50 players and approximately then with about $110m in space give or take.

The only current big earnes left in 2023 would be Bakh and Kenny.
I'm assuming Jaire is extended and let's say he eats $25m of that space.
Gary and Savage would be on their 5th years, so either you take that hit or extend them, so some money gone then. Elgton will need a new deal at around $13m AAV, if  Lazard kicks on he might be at $10m. We might have already done MVS and Tonyan. 

Point being with all of that accounted for we still have some space, so no issue if we wish to extend some vets like Z or Adams or Amos. That cash needs to be spent and better to spend it on your own guys than someone elses. 

I don't see no digging holes here. There is money to go around and that's without even getting creative. It is always good to keep some vets around who have perfomred well and who aren't past it.
 

[15412]

Really good work and thoughts here....

[15412]

Elgton and Jaire absolute must and for sure signings.   Savage near so too.  Future looks bright.

[mikemike778]

32 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

Well in 2023 we have $84m cap space on the assumption that the cap will only be at $218m, per Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/2023/
I'm assuming Rodgers is already long gone, that frees up another $28m
The other Aaron, Jones, has a salary of $20m and a dead cap hit of $6.5m, so most likely he is gone.

Therefore we'll have 125.5m in space with about 30 players under contract. Add in rookies from 2022 and 2023 and we'll be close to 50 players and approximately then with about $110m in space give or take.

The only current big earnes left in 2023 would be Bakh and Kenny.
I'm assuming Jaire is extended and let's say he eats $25m of that space.
Gary and Savage would be on their 5th years, so either you take that hit or extend them, so some money gone then. Elgton will need a new deal at around $13m AAV, if  Lazard kicks on he might be at $10m. We might have already done MVS and Tonyan. 

Point being with all of that accounted for we still have some space, so no issue if we wish to extend some vets like Z or Adams or Amos. That cash needs to be spent and better to spend it on your own guys than someone elses. 

I don't see no digging holes here. There is money to go around and that's without even getting creative. It is always good to keep some vets around who have perfomred well and who aren't past it.
 

 

Well if you are trying to work out how much is left in the 2023 cap then we really are in pretty serious trouble.  We don't know how much money will be pushed into 2022 as  a result of this summer, let alone our 2023 cap burden.

There is no right answer at this stage. If we pushed hard in 2022 and had a strong playoff run then fair play, you were probably right. If we pushed hard and didn't make the playoffs or scraped in and went out in wildcard then I would argue its serious mismanagement and a waste of resources. You don't borrow and spend money you don't have for a year with a low chance of success. Its just poor management. But like I said if we did and we won the thing then its a ballsy move that pays off.

I believe in spending what you have. Anything else is a false economy. Borrow money in year one means that by the time you get to year two, you have to pay back what you borrowed so need to borrow more from year three and so on.  Guess I'm a bit risk averse in that regard, never understood the mentality of people with ongoing credit card debts caused by spending on stuff they didn't need.

When we need to sign an ascending young player, we should be able to do it without having to get the calculators out and figure out how many players we need to restructure this time and who needs to be cut. If the cap goes up 50m great - we have 50m more to spend than the teams who kicked 50m down the road expecting a cap increase.

Back on topic - I don't think we are in 'trouble'. The future should be bright. But we just need to make some sensible choices and not give ourselves an increasing number of what will probably be poor contracts for ageing players. Its a young man's game. Keeping vets is great but 3rd contracts on huge money is a dangerous game.