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Your top-10 teams headed into this season?


WizeGuy

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1. Tampa Bay
2. Kansas City
3. Buffalo
4. Cleveland
5. Green Bay
6. Pittsburgh
7. LA Rams
8. New England
9. Baltimore
10. Tennessee

 

 

Crazy thing is only 3 teams from the NFC but on paper I think this is how it goes.  

 

Dallas and San Francisco could be up there but really depends on both teams OL play and if guys can stay healthy.  Washington is another with that great defense but again with the OL and how good will it be.  The loss for the Rams of Cam Akers for the season could be a huge loss, the other backs are good but not nearly as good as he was last year.  

 

3 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

1. New England Patriots
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Seattle Seahawks
10. Denver Broncos

Would be cool to change it up but how in the world are the Bucs that low when almost everyone returns from last year and they basically lost no one off that team, if anything they get OJ Howard back this year.  Also no way KC is that low when their offensive line is ten times better than that unit they had in the Super bowl, and if they still got to the Super Bowl with that OL think what they could do with this group.  Sure have some losses on D but that DL is still really strong and the secondary is deep and talented.

Would be cool also if Seattle is good but that OL could be a massive problem and honestly it is not that improved from last year.  Seattle's draft was arguably as bad as any team in the NFL, sure did not have a lot of picks but nothing great outside of getting Stone Forsythe who is a promising OT.  Compare that to say the Bears who had a loaded draft and have tons of performers from that draft this preseason and even have some great UDFA guys as well.  

 

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2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

 Would be cool to change it up but how in the world are the Bucs that low when almost everyone returns from last year and they basically lost no one off that team, if anything they get OJ Howard back this year.

     The Bucs, 11-5 in a division with New Orleans minus Drew Brees and Carolina minus Chris McCaffrey, have done as you said:  remained the same while the Rams and Patriots have improved.  The latter might even be able to practice more than once a fortnight.

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Also no way KC is that low when their offensive line is ten times better than that unit they had in the Super bowl, and if they still got to the Super Bowl with that OL think what they could do with this group.  Sure have some losses on D but that DL is still really strong and the secondary is deep and talented.

      K.C.'s offensive line is better than in the Super Bowl but not as good as they were entering 2020, especially where it counts:  at OT.  (New England's O-Line is significantly better at every position.)  Like T.B., their positional schedules get nastier at every spot:  QB, RB, WR, and TE.

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Would be cool also if Seattle is good but that OL could be a massive problem and honestly it is not that improved from last year.  Seattle's draft was arguably as bad as any team in the NFL, sure did not have a lot of picks but nothing great outside of getting Stone Forsythe who is a promising OT.

      Seattle's O-Line is above average, which is to say it's better than it has been in more than a decade.  The sixteenth rated (DVOA & PFF) defense and a sixth (DVOA) or seventh (PFF aggregate) ranked offense with softer RB and WR opponents in 2021 seems appropriate in the top ten.

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Compare that to say the Bears who had a loaded draft and have tons of performers from that draft this preseason and even have some great UDFA guys as well.

       You're not suggesting Chicago will win 8+ games this year, are you? 

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1 hour ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     The Bucs, 11-5 in a division with New Orleans minus Drew Brees and Carolina minus Chris McCaffrey, have done as you said:  remained the same while the Rams and Patriots have improved.  The latter might even be able to practice more than once a fortnight.

      K.C.'s offensive line is better than in the Super Bowl but not as good as they were entering 2020, especially where it counts:  at OT.  (New England's O-Line is significantly better at every position.)  Like T.B., their positional schedules get nastier at every spot:  QB, RB, WR, and TE.

      Seattle's O-Line is above average, which is to say it's better than it has been in more than a decade.  The sixteenth rated (DVOA & PFF) defense and a sixth (DVOA) or seventh (PFF aggregate) ranked offense with softer RB and WR opponents in 2021 seems appropriate in the top ten.

       You're not suggesting Chicago will win 8+ games this year, are you? 

Orlando Brown Jr is one of the best young tackles in the NFL and Thuney is one of the best guards in the NFL and that is not even considering if Duvernay-Tardif comes back and plays which would make them even better on the OL or if Remmers goes back to RT after being hurt and they have multiple dudes behind them that can play and are solid backups.  Sure the Patriots are greatly improved and have one heck of a defense, but the Chiefs have the best QB in the NFL, arguably the best receiver in the NFL and the best TE in the NFL and arguably a top 5 OL in the NFL.  Patriots going to beat that?  Not very likely unless they play out of their mind good.  They will have a great run game but unless Mac Jones is amazing at QB or Cam they still need to score and that WR core is not very dangerous but maybe they will surprise some people.  And honestly I think Isaiah Wynn sucks, great they brought back Trent Brown but still need another OT, Cajuste, Herron and Sherman have looked ok in preseason so maybe one of them take his place when he gets hurt which he most likely will.

 

Still there is just no way the Chiefs will be the 5th best team in the NFL at the end of this season, no way.  Much less Cleveland Browns are not even top 10 when they have arguably the best roster in the NFL, that is nuts to think that especially after how great they were last year.  Will be interesting to see how much better then Rams are with Stafford, but unless they can really run the ball well it might not matter much because they did lose some dudes from last year.  They lost Johnson who was a great DB and Troy Hill who was also very good.  Lost Fox and Ekubam as edge rushers, TE in Everett and like I said Akers out for the year that is a lot to replace.  

 


Usually after a team wins the Super Bowl they typically lose multiple key players to some degree, the fact the Buc did not is wildly impressive and like I said they get OJ Howard back not to mention a healthy Vita Vea who missed a majority of the second half of the season last year and is key to that defense.  Sure maybe they will not be as motivated this year but that D is still rock solid and so is that offense.  Oh and they added Joe Tryon who will help on the edge for the aging JPP.

 

Seattle's OL is not above average, they freaking sucked last year.  Fact is Russell Wilson almost left Seattle because he is clearly sick of getting hit and sacked so much.  Maybe Gabe Jackson is an improvement at guard but not by much and if Pocic is injured at center then they would really be in trouble not to mention if Duane Brown gets hurt again.  Sure Damien Lewis was decent last year but they did not really address it this off season with proven guys, adding youth at OT with Eiland and Forsythe helps a bit but still.

 

As for Chicago, I just think they could be good and might surprise some people just based on that defense, especially if they get any resemblance of QB play at all.  Say Fields plays an provides a duel threat, he could be hard to handle and would make that team a lot more dangerous overall.

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Sure the Patriots are greatly improved and have one heck of a defense, but the Chiefs have the best QB in the NFL, arguably the best receiver in the NFL and the best TE in the NFL and arguably a top 5 OL in the NFL.  Patriots going to beat that? 

       By being better at almost every other position, including all five O-Linemen, and by having ridiculously soft positional schedules, starting with the NFL's most compliant opponents at QB, WR, and TE [compared to K.C.'s 22nd, 30th, and 20th, respectively].  And by being handed Mac Jones at the 15th pick, of course.

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Still there is just no way the Chiefs will be the 5th best team in the NFL at the end of this season, no way.  

      You might be right.  Kansas City could easily drop because of Buffalo and Baltimore, to say nothing of the Chief's across-the-board tougher positional schedules.

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Much less Cleveland Browns are not even top 10 when they have arguably the best roster in the NFL, that is nuts to think that especially after how great they were last year.

      Cleveland did, in fact, have the best offensive roster in 2020, with which they finished 7th (DVOA) in running against the 7th softest defenders and 10th in passing against the 12th (QB) and 9th (WR) most generous coverages.  How will they fare in 2021 against the league's toughest?  The less said about their defense (25th) the better.  They did draft well, though.

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Will be interesting to see how much better then Rams are with Stafford, but unless they can really run the ball well it might not matter much because they did lose some dudes from last year.  They lost Johnson who was a great DB and Troy Hill who was also very good.  Lost Fox and Ekubam as edge rushers, TE in Everett and like I said Akers out for the year that is a lot to replace.

      The Rams have a great defensive backfield (CBs:9th, Safeties:3rd).  Edubam (PFF:86th) and Fox (84th) were warm bodies;  the Rams are third in pass rush with or without them.  The "loss" of Everett (35th) means they'll have to play their real TE, Tyler Higbee (PFF:24th, FPPG:20th), more.  Ditto for Darrell Henderson (PFF:12th, FPPG:35th) instead of Cam Akers (33rd, 44th).

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Seattle's OL is not above average, they freaking sucked last year.

      The consensus of the three rating services I monitor has 12-4 Seattle's O-Line at 14th.  Two had them at 22nd and 23rd in 2020--not terrible and, by far, the best we've seen in a while.  The most predictive [albeit the most optimistic] of those snapshots puts them at 7th right now.  The Seahawks offense was 9th (DVOA) in the air and 6th on the ground in 2020 so where will they be with an improved O-Line and slightly easier RB and WR schedules?  As for their draft (which is rarely impressive, even when entering sooner than 56th), keep an eye on WR D'Wayne Eskridge once he is 100%.

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As for Chicago, I just think they could be good and might surprise some people just based on that defense, especially if they get any resemblance of QB play at all.  Say Fields plays an provides a duel threat, he could be hard to handle and would make that team a lot more dangerous overall.

     Given the nasty turn in their positional schedules, six wins would be surprising.  Justin Fields has looked very good so far, though.  I can't remember the last time I said that about a Bears QB!

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My list will certainly look different than most, I have a Packers vs Dolphins Super Bowl this year. 
 

1. Packers

2. Dolphins

3. Chiefs (they will have the best record in football though, as always)

4. 49ers

5. Buccaneers

6. Rams

7. Ravens

8. Browns

9. Bills

10. Falcons

I would have the Colts around #6 or 7 if Wentz didn’t get injured, but not sure they will recover from that. Titans will probably win the South at 10-7, maybe even 9-8. 
 

I think the Falcons will be solid this year, offense is gonna be great even without Julio. 

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