NoFlyZone Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 (edited) 1. Mahomes 2. Dak 3. Rodgers 4. Watson 5. Wilson 6. Allen 7. Lamar 8. Herbert 9. Cousins (His poor rep is really unfair and pretty baseless) 10. Tannehill 11. Mayfield (taking the next step wouldn’t be surprised if he climbed this list a bit) 12. Murray edit: Somehow forgot Brady, but probably slide his name in before Lamar. Edited September 10, 2021 by NoFlyZone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 * Watson he's not playing anytime soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatriotsWin! Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 1. Mahomes 2. Brady 3. Rodgers 4. Wilson 5. Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I'll preface this by saying that on an average or better roster Deshaun Watson would be #1. I won't include RB Lamar Jackson but if he were to be considered a QB he'd be #5. We assume you mean in situ. That gives us: 1. Josh Allen 2. Patrick Mahomes 3. Dak Prescott 4. Aaron Rodgers 5. Tom Brady 6. Kyler Murray 7. Justin Herbert 8. Matt Stafford 9. Matt Ryan 10. Ryan Tannehill 11. Kirk Cousins 12. Mac Jones (largely because of those around him). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 13 hours ago, SBLIII said: If Dak plays like this I would put him in the top 5 He has been playing like this for a long time now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 2 hours ago, PatriotsWin! said: 1. Mahomes 2. Brady 3. Rodgers 4. Wilson 5. Allen This is the best list. I'd put Dak at 6th, with a significant drop off after that. Shame for him though that the Cowboys have struggled the past two seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Just throwing Rodgers in the 'top 2' like he is right there with Mahomes is weak IMO. Lets use some kind of a system. (feel free to make your own) Try the last 3 years. Top 3 in QB MVP gets you 10, 5, and 3 points. A playoff win gets you 3 points. A Super Bowl appearance gets you 6 points. A Super Bowl win gets you 9 more points. You get a point for 10th in passer rating up to 10 points for 1st in passer rating. An MVP best stats year with no playoff wins gets you 20 in this system and a 3 win SB run gets you 21 A Mahomes 2019 year gets you 33 Mahomes gets 10, 5, and 5 for QB MVP (assuming Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson in 2019) (who cares if King Henry was 2nd or 3rd, he doesn't play QB) Mahomes gets 18 for 6 playoff wins. Mahomes gets 15 points for back to back SBs with 1 win Mahomes gets 9,4, and 8 for ratings. 74 points Brady gets 0 for MVP Brady gets 21 for playoff wins Brady gets 30 for Super Bowls Brady gets 2 for rating 53 points Rodgers gets 10, 0, 0 for MVP Rodgers gets 6 for playoff wins Rodgers gets 0 for SBs Rodgers gets 10, 0, and 0 for rating 26 points Jackson gets 10 for MVP Jackson gets 3 for playoff wins Jackson gets 0 for SBs Jackson gets 9 for passer rating 22 points Wilson gets 3 for MVP Wilson gets 3 for playoff wins Wilson gets 0 for SBs Wilson gets 4, 6, and 3 for passer rating 19 points Josh Allen gets 5 for MVP Josh Allen gets 6 for playoff wins Josh Allen gets 0 for SBs Josh Allen gets 7 for rating 18 points Watson gets 0 for MVP (4 wins DQ'd his incredible year from consideration) Watson gets 3 for a playoff win Watson gets 0 for SBs Watson gets 14 for rating 17 points Jimmy G gets 0 for MVP Jimmy G gets 6 for playoff wins Jimmy G gets 6 for SBs Jimmy G gets 3 for rating 15 points Cousins gets 0 for MVP Cousins gets 3 for playoff wins Cousins gets 0 for SBs Cousins gets 3,7, and 1 for rating 14 points The top 2 are pretty clear and neither of them is Rodgers. I can't stop people from thinking Rodgers is owed worship because he did a Matt Ryan 2016 last year without the Super Bowl loss. Ryan's 117.1 was in a year with the average rating of 89.3 (32 points in this system) Rodgers 121.5 was in a year with the average rating of 93.6 (23 points in this system) FYI: This is Rodgers 2010-2012 Rodgers gets 18 for MVP (3rd in 2010, 1st in 2011, and 2nd in 2012) Rodgers gets 15 for playoffs Rodgers gets 15 for Super Bowls Rodgers gets 28 for rating Rodgers peak was 76, that's 2 points higher than current Mahomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 1 hour ago, SkippyX said: Just throwing Rodgers in the 'top 2' like he is right there with Mahomes is weak IMO. Lets use some kind of a system. (feel free to make your own) Try the last 3 years. Top 3 in QB MVP gets you 10, 5, and 3 points. A playoff win gets you 3 points. A Super Bowl appearance gets you 6 points. A Super Bowl win gets you 9 more points. You get a point for 10th in passer rating up to 10 points for 1st in passer rating. An MVP best stats year with no playoff wins gets you 20 in this system and a 3 win SB run gets you 21 A Mahomes 2019 year gets you 33 Mahomes gets 10, 5, and 5 for QB MVP (assuming Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson in 2019) (who cares if King Henry was 2nd or 3rd, he doesn't play QB) Mahomes gets 18 for 6 playoff wins. Mahomes gets 15 points for back to back SBs with 1 win Mahomes gets 9,4, and 8 for ratings. 74 points Brady gets 0 for MVP Brady gets 21 for playoff wins Brady gets 30 for Super Bowls Brady gets 2 for rating 53 points Rodgers gets 10, 0, 0 for MVP Rodgers gets 6 for playoff wins Rodgers gets 0 for SBs Rodgers gets 10, 0, and 0 for rating 26 points Jackson gets 10 for MVP Jackson gets 3 for playoff wins Jackson gets 0 for SBs Jackson gets 9 for passer rating 22 points Wilson gets 3 for MVP Wilson gets 3 for playoff wins Wilson gets 0 for SBs Wilson gets 4, 6, and 3 for passer rating 19 points Josh Allen gets 5 for MVP Josh Allen gets 6 for playoff wins Josh Allen gets 0 for SBs Josh Allen gets 7 for rating 18 points Watson gets 0 for MVP (4 wins DQ'd his incredible year from consideration) Watson gets 3 for a playoff win Watson gets 0 for SBs Watson gets 14 for rating 17 points Jimmy G gets 0 for MVP Jimmy G gets 6 for playoff wins Jimmy G gets 6 for SBs Jimmy G gets 3 for rating 15 points Cousins gets 0 for MVP Cousins gets 3 for playoff wins Cousins gets 0 for SBs Cousins gets 3,7, and 1 for rating 14 points The top 2 are pretty clear and neither of them is Rodgers. I can't stop people from thinking Rodgers is owed worship because he did a Matt Ryan 2016 last year without the Super Bowl loss. Ryan's 117.1 was in a year with the average rating of 89.3 (32 points in this system) Rodgers 121.5 was in a year with the average rating of 93.6 (23 points in this system) FYI: This is Rodgers 2010-2012 Rodgers gets 18 for MVP (3rd in 2010, 1st in 2011, and 2nd in 2012) Rodgers gets 15 for playoffs Rodgers gets 15 for Super Bowls Rodgers gets 28 for rating Rodgers peak was 76, that's 2 points higher than current Mahomes. So acting like Rodgers is top 2 "is weak" because you have him at .....*checks notes* ..... #3? Because your system severely overrates superbowl appearances / wins? ----- Just to demonstrate - 2010 - 2012 Joe Flacco Flacco gets 0 for MVP Flacco gets 6 for playoff wins Flacco gets 15 for Super Bowls Flacco gets 4, 0, 1 for rating 26 points So according to your system, 2010-2012 Flacco is about as good as 2018-2020 Rodgers has been and would be tied for the third best QB in football today? ----- Like, I don't even hate the "I'll take Brady over Rodgers" take (don't agree, but it's reasonable), but to act like having Rodgers in the top 2 coming off an MVP year is ridiculous is just trying to be dramatic. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, Soggust said: So acting like Rodgers is top 2 "is weak" because you have him at .....*checks notes* ..... #3? Because your system severely overrates superbowl appearances / wins? ----- Just to demonstrate - 2010 - 2012 Joe Flacco Flacco gets 0 for MVP Flacco gets 6 for playoff wins Flacco gets 15 for Super Bowls Flacco gets 4, 0, 1 for rating 26 points So according to your system, 2010-2012 Flacco is about as good as 2018-2020 Rodgers has been and would be tied for the third best QB in football today? ----- Like, I don't even hate the "I'll take Brady over Rodgers" take (don't agree, but it's reasonable), but to act like having Rodgers in the top 2 coming off an MVP year is ridiculous is just trying to be dramatic. QBs winning Super Bowls can never be overrated. Flacco was the best player in those 2012 playoffs. Flacco 2010-2012 had 18 TDs to 2 picks in the playoffs. Flacco's ratings in those 6 playoff wins that offend you as weighted too heavily were as follows: 115.4 97.1 125.6 116.2 106.2 124.2 He duplicated Joe Montana's 11 TDs to no picks SB run. He did it against the 2nd, 4th, 9th, and 21st ranked defenses (points)(2,4,10,21 in yards) Yes, he was that good. Again, come up with your own system besides RECENCY BIAS In 2016 it was ridiculous not to worship Cam coming off an MVP In 2017 it was ridiculous not to worship Matt Ryan coming off an MVP In 2020 it was ridiculous not to worship Lamar Jackson coming off an MVP Which one of those QBs was even top 10 in rating the next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Rodgers last MVP season before 2020 was 2014. He was the 15th rated passer in 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 3 hours ago, SkippyX said: Try the last 3 years. Top 3 in QB MVP gets you 10, 5, and 3 points. A playoff win gets you 3 points. A Super Bowl appearance gets you 6 points. A Super Bowl win gets you 9 more points. You get a point for 10th in passer rating up to 10 points for 1st in passer rating. ~75% of your QB ranking is on team accomplishments. 1. MVP goes to the best offensive player on a team that has the most (or near most) wins. 2. Playoff wins are a team stat 3. Superbowl appearances/wins are a team stat. 4. Passer rating is your only QB stat - - and its very flawed. Its probably the 5-6th best stat to look at when you judge a QB. Judging a QB is extremely easy and your fellow Eagles poster (RMIB) has already done it. Just combine the major rankings: DVOA + ANY/A + QBR (basically ESPNs EPA) or just normal EPA + Rating + PFF grade/ranking Thats how you judge a QB. Any other method and you are judging the team. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 And because you are obsessed with attributing wins/losses to QBs, it should be pointed out that Rating (the stat you love) is not highly correlated with wins. Once again, not that it will matter, but here ya go: https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/ https://www.wibwnewsnow.com/numbers-game-stats-correlate-most-wins-nfl/ https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2018/7/23/17572836/building-a-winner-in-the-nfl-by-the-numbers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, SkippyX said: QBs winning Super Bowls can never be overrated. This is where we fundamentally disagree. Super Bowls are a team stat. Rodgers has been statistically better than Brady over the last 3 years (your timeline, not mine) in the playoffs (Rodgers missed in 2018, but his 2019 + 2020 are better than any of Brady's years). Rodgers also has been statistically better over the last 3 years (again, your timeline) during the regular season. To dismiss this because of a small sample size of a 3 year playoff sample (in which, again, Rodgers played better) is too far of a stretch for me. 25 minutes ago, SkippyX said: Flacco was the best player in those 2012 playoffs. Flacco 2010-2012 had 18 TDs to 2 picks in the playoffs. Flacco's ratings in those 6 playoff wins that offend you as weighted too heavily were as follows: 115.4 97.1 125.6 116.2 106.2 124.2 He duplicated Joe Montana's 11 TDs to no picks SB run. He did it against the 2nd, 4th, 9th, and 21st ranked defenses (points)(2,4,10,21 in yards) Yes, he was that good. But this is missing the forest from the trees. Yes, Flacco was awesome. That's my point, not yours lol. You can be stellar in the playoffs and not be close to being a top 3 QB in the league (at any point in his entire career), because the regular season still matters. No one in this parallel dimension thought Flacco was a top 4 QB in 2012 (or even going into 2013 following the run). This is why I'm saying winning a Super Bowl win shouldn't be worth 2.4-2.7x an MVP (3-4 playoff games + make sb + win). 27 minutes ago, SkippyX said: Again, come up with your own system besides RECENCY BIAS My system is to take the last few years (3, per your example) and ask the following: Who has played better in the regular season? Rodgers Is it close? If so, compare playoffs. Not particularly, but let's continue Who has played better in the playoffs? Rodgers Is it close? If so, compare teams around them. Not particularly <--- I'm here Who has a better team around them? Brady in TB, Rodgers when Brady was in NE Is it close? If so, compare team success. Sure Who has had better team success? Brady ---------- I give Brady an extra bump in my ratings GIVEN his team success and leadership, but that's baked in already to the ranking. Statistically, he's probably 5-10 range? (without looking anything up), but I have him at 3 (per my previous post), because of those qualities. 38 minutes ago, SkippyX said: In 2016 it was ridiculous not to worship Cam coming off an MVP In 2017 it was ridiculous not to worship Matt Ryan coming off an MVP In 2020 it was ridiculous not to worship Lamar Jackson coming off an MVP Which one of those QBs was even top 10 in rating the next year? Cam and Lamar had questions about their passing because their MVP years were heavily predicated on their ability to run as well (Cam with completion % and Lamar with volume, in particular). Matt Ryan was absolutely reasonable to have as a top 3 QB after 2016 before 2017, especially considering his playoff run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 On 9/10/2021 at 2:37 PM, notthatbluestuff said: Gotta say, I'm curious as to why you have Mac and Zack as "HM" above Trevor Lawrence. Because I think Trevor Lawrence sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 (edited) On 9/9/2021 at 11:13 PM, DoleINGout said: 1. Brady 2. Mahomes 3. Herbert 4. Prescott 5. Allen 6. Rodgers 7. Stafford 8. R. Wilson 9. Jackson 10. Murray 11. Burrow 12. Mayfield HM: Mac, Garoppolo, Z. Wilson, Roethlisberger, Hurts After the start of the 2021 szn: 1. Brady 2. Mahomes 3. Herbert 4. R. Wilson 5. Jackson 6. Prescott 7. Stafford 8. Murray 9. M. Jones 10. Rodgers 11. J. Allen 12. Garoppolo Edited September 20, 2021 by DoleINGout 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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