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Top 12 QBs in the league.


GHARMON9

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1. Mahomes 

2. Dak

3. Rodgers 

4. Watson

5. Wilson

6. Allen

7. Lamar

8. Herbert 

9. Cousins (His poor rep is really unfair and pretty baseless)

10. Tannehill

11. Mayfield (taking the next step wouldn’t be surprised if he climbed this list a bit)

12. Murray

 

edit: Somehow forgot Brady, but probably slide his name in before Lamar.

 

Edited by NoFlyZone
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    I'll preface this by saying that on an average or better roster Deshaun Watson would be #1.  I won't include RB Lamar Jackson but if he were to be considered a QB he'd be #5.  We assume you mean in situ. 

That gives us:

1. Josh Allen

2. Patrick Mahomes

3. Dak Prescott

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Tom Brady

6. Kyler Murray

7. Justin Herbert

8. Matt Stafford

9. Matt Ryan

10. Ryan Tannehill

11. Kirk Cousins

12. Mac Jones (largely because of those around him).

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Just throwing Rodgers in the 'top 2' like he is right there with Mahomes is weak IMO.

Lets use some kind of a system. (feel free to make your own)

Try the last 3 years.

  • Top 3 in QB MVP gets you 10, 5, and 3 points.
  • A playoff win gets you 3 points.
  • A Super Bowl appearance gets you 6 points.
    • A Super Bowl win gets you 9 more points.
  • You get a point for 10th in passer rating up to 10 points for 1st in passer rating.

An MVP best stats year with no playoff wins gets you 20 in this system and a 3 win SB run gets you 21

A Mahomes 2019 year gets you 33

  • Mahomes gets 10, 5, and 5 for QB MVP (assuming Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson in 2019) (who cares if King Henry was 2nd or 3rd, he doesn't play QB)
  • Mahomes gets 18 for 6 playoff wins.
  • Mahomes gets 15 points for back to back SBs with 1 win
  • Mahomes gets 9,4, and 8 for ratings.
    • 74 points
  • Brady gets 0 for MVP
  • Brady gets 21 for playoff wins
  • Brady gets 30 for Super Bowls
  • Brady gets 2 for rating
    • 53 points
  • Rodgers gets 10, 0, 0 for MVP
  • Rodgers gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Rodgers gets 0 for SBs
  • Rodgers gets 10, 0, and 0 for rating
    • 26 points
  • Jackson gets 10 for MVP
  • Jackson gets 3 for playoff wins
  • Jackson gets 0 for SBs
  • Jackson gets 9 for passer rating
    • 22 points
  • Wilson gets 3 for MVP
  • Wilson gets 3 for playoff wins
  • Wilson gets 0 for SBs
  • Wilson gets 4, 6, and 3 for passer rating
    • 19 points
  • Josh Allen gets 5 for MVP
  • Josh Allen gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Josh Allen gets 0 for SBs
  • Josh Allen gets 7 for rating
    • 18 points
  • Watson gets 0 for MVP  (4 wins DQ'd his incredible year from consideration)
  • Watson gets 3 for a playoff win
  • Watson gets 0 for SBs
  • Watson gets 14 for rating
    • 17 points
  • Jimmy G gets 0 for MVP
  • Jimmy G gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Jimmy G gets 6 for SBs
  • Jimmy G gets 3 for rating
    • 15 points
  • Cousins gets 0 for MVP
  • Cousins gets 3 for playoff wins
  • Cousins gets 0 for SBs
  • Cousins gets 3,7, and 1 for rating
    • 14 points

The top 2 are pretty clear and neither of them is Rodgers.

 

I can't stop people from thinking Rodgers is owed worship because he did a Matt Ryan 2016 last year without the Super Bowl loss.

Ryan's 117.1 was in a year with the average rating of 89.3  (32 points in this system)

Rodgers 121.5 was in a year with the average rating of 93.6 (23 points in this system)

 

FYI:

This is Rodgers 2010-2012

  • Rodgers gets 18 for MVP (3rd in 2010, 1st in 2011, and 2nd in 2012)
  • Rodgers gets 15 for playoffs
  • Rodgers gets 15 for Super Bowls
  • Rodgers gets 28 for rating

Rodgers peak was 76, that's 2 points higher than current Mahomes.

 

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1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

Just throwing Rodgers in the 'top 2' like he is right there with Mahomes is weak IMO.

Lets use some kind of a system. (feel free to make your own)

Try the last 3 years.

  • Top 3 in QB MVP gets you 10, 5, and 3 points.
  • A playoff win gets you 3 points.
  • A Super Bowl appearance gets you 6 points.
    • A Super Bowl win gets you 9 more points.
  • You get a point for 10th in passer rating up to 10 points for 1st in passer rating.

An MVP best stats year with no playoff wins gets you 20 in this system and a 3 win SB run gets you 21

A Mahomes 2019 year gets you 33

  • Mahomes gets 10, 5, and 5 for QB MVP (assuming Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson in 2019) (who cares if King Henry was 2nd or 3rd, he doesn't play QB)
  • Mahomes gets 18 for 6 playoff wins.
  • Mahomes gets 15 points for back to back SBs with 1 win
  • Mahomes gets 9,4, and 8 for ratings.
    • 74 points
  • Brady gets 0 for MVP
  • Brady gets 21 for playoff wins
  • Brady gets 30 for Super Bowls
  • Brady gets 2 for rating
    • 53 points
  • Rodgers gets 10, 0, 0 for MVP
  • Rodgers gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Rodgers gets 0 for SBs
  • Rodgers gets 10, 0, and 0 for rating
    • 26 points
  • Jackson gets 10 for MVP
  • Jackson gets 3 for playoff wins
  • Jackson gets 0 for SBs
  • Jackson gets 9 for passer rating
    • 22 points
  • Wilson gets 3 for MVP
  • Wilson gets 3 for playoff wins
  • Wilson gets 0 for SBs
  • Wilson gets 4, 6, and 3 for passer rating
    • 19 points
  • Josh Allen gets 5 for MVP
  • Josh Allen gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Josh Allen gets 0 for SBs
  • Josh Allen gets 7 for rating
    • 18 points
  • Watson gets 0 for MVP  (4 wins DQ'd his incredible year from consideration)
  • Watson gets 3 for a playoff win
  • Watson gets 0 for SBs
  • Watson gets 14 for rating
    • 17 points
  • Jimmy G gets 0 for MVP
  • Jimmy G gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Jimmy G gets 6 for SBs
  • Jimmy G gets 3 for rating
    • 15 points
  • Cousins gets 0 for MVP
  • Cousins gets 3 for playoff wins
  • Cousins gets 0 for SBs
  • Cousins gets 3,7, and 1 for rating
    • 14 points

The top 2 are pretty clear and neither of them is Rodgers.

 

I can't stop people from thinking Rodgers is owed worship because he did a Matt Ryan 2016 last year without the Super Bowl loss.

Ryan's 117.1 was in a year with the average rating of 89.3  (32 points in this system)

Rodgers 121.5 was in a year with the average rating of 93.6 (23 points in this system)

 

FYI:

This is Rodgers 2010-2012

  • Rodgers gets 18 for MVP (3rd in 2010, 1st in 2011, and 2nd in 2012)
  • Rodgers gets 15 for playoffs
  • Rodgers gets 15 for Super Bowls
  • Rodgers gets 28 for rating

Rodgers peak was 76, that's 2 points higher than current Mahomes.

 

So acting like Rodgers is top 2 "is weak" because you have him at .....*checks notes* ..... #3?

Because your system severely overrates superbowl appearances / wins? 

-----

Just to demonstrate - 

2010 - 2012  Joe Flacco

  • Flacco gets 0 for MVP
  • Flacco gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Flacco gets 15 for Super Bowls
  • Flacco gets 4, 0, 1 for rating
    • 26 points

So according to your system, 2010-2012 Flacco is about as good as 2018-2020 Rodgers has been and would be tied for the third best QB in football today?

-----

Like, I don't even hate the "I'll take Brady over Rodgers" take (don't agree, but it's reasonable), but to act like having Rodgers in the top 2 coming off an MVP year is ridiculous is just trying to be dramatic.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Soggust said:

So acting like Rodgers is top 2 "is weak" because you have him at .....*checks notes* ..... #3?

Because your system severely overrates superbowl appearances / wins? 

-----

Just to demonstrate - 

2010 - 2012  Joe Flacco

  • Flacco gets 0 for MVP
  • Flacco gets 6 for playoff wins
  • Flacco gets 15 for Super Bowls
  • Flacco gets 4, 0, 1 for rating
    • 26 points

So according to your system, 2010-2012 Flacco is about as good as 2018-2020 Rodgers has been and would be tied for the third best QB in football today?

-----

Like, I don't even hate the "I'll take Brady over Rodgers" take (don't agree, but it's reasonable), but to act like having Rodgers in the top 2 coming off an MVP year is ridiculous is just trying to be dramatic.

 

 

QBs winning Super Bowls can never be overrated.

Flacco was the best player in those 2012 playoffs.

Flacco 2010-2012 had 18 TDs to 2 picks in the playoffs.

Flacco's ratings in those 6 playoff wins that offend you as weighted too heavily were as follows:

  • 115.4
  • 97.1
  • 125.6
  • 116.2
  • 106.2
  • 124.2

He duplicated Joe Montana's 11 TDs to no picks SB run. He did it against the 2nd, 4th, 9th, and 21st ranked defenses (points)(2,4,10,21 in yards)

Yes, he was that good.

 

 

Again, come up with your own system besides RECENCY BIAS

 

In 2016 it was ridiculous not to worship Cam coming off an MVP

In 2017 it was ridiculous not to worship Matt Ryan coming off an MVP

In 2020 it was ridiculous not to worship Lamar Jackson coming off an MVP

Which one of those QBs was even top 10 in rating the next year?

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3 hours ago, SkippyX said:

Try the last 3 years.

  • Top 3 in QB MVP gets you 10, 5, and 3 points.
  • A playoff win gets you 3 points.
  • A Super Bowl appearance gets you 6 points.
    • A Super Bowl win gets you 9 more points.
  • You get a point for 10th in passer rating up to 10 points for 1st in passer rating.

~75% of your QB ranking is on team accomplishments. 

1. MVP goes to the best offensive player on a team that has the most (or near most) wins.

2. Playoff wins are a team stat

3. Superbowl appearances/wins are a team stat.

4. Passer rating is your only QB stat - - and its very flawed. Its probably the 5-6th best stat to look at when you judge a QB.

 

 

Judging a QB is extremely easy and your fellow Eagles poster (RMIB) has already done it. Just combine the major rankings:

DVOA + ANY/A + QBR (basically ESPNs EPA) or just normal EPA + Rating + PFF grade/ranking

 

Thats how you judge a QB. Any other method and you are judging the team.

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And because you are obsessed with attributing wins/losses to QBs, it should be pointed out that Rating (the stat you love) is not highly correlated with wins. Once again, not that it will matter, but here ya go:

r-squared-with-win-1-1.png

aI2tjrYUS_OI71ciN_YBOFRizZ3YuQTOtwCXP8OH

https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/

 

https://www.wibwnewsnow.com/numbers-game-stats-correlate-most-wins-nfl/

 

https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2018/7/23/17572836/building-a-winner-in-the-nfl-by-the-numbers

 

 

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19 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

QBs winning Super Bowls can never be overrated.

This is where we fundamentally disagree. Super Bowls are a team stat. Rodgers has been statistically better than Brady over the last 3 years (your timeline, not mine) in the playoffs (Rodgers missed in 2018, but his 2019 + 2020 are better than any of Brady's years). 

Rodgers also has been statistically better over the last 3 years (again, your timeline) during the regular season. To dismiss this because of a small sample size of a 3 year playoff sample (in which, again, Rodgers played better) is too far of a stretch for me. 

 

25 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Flacco was the best player in those 2012 playoffs.

Flacco 2010-2012 had 18 TDs to 2 picks in the playoffs.

Flacco's ratings in those 6 playoff wins that offend you as weighted too heavily were as follows:

  • 115.4
  • 97.1
  • 125.6
  • 116.2
  • 106.2
  • 124.2

He duplicated Joe Montana's 11 TDs to no picks SB run. He did it against the 2nd, 4th, 9th, and 21st ranked defenses (points)(2,4,10,21 in yards)

Yes, he was that good.

But this is missing the forest from the trees. Yes, Flacco was awesome. That's my point, not yours lol.

You can be stellar in the playoffs and not be close to being a top 3 QB in the league (at any point in his entire career), because the regular season still matters. No one in this parallel dimension thought Flacco was a top 4 QB in 2012 (or even going into 2013 following the run).

This is why I'm saying winning a Super Bowl win shouldn't be worth 2.4-2.7x an MVP (3-4 playoff games + make sb + win).

 

27 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Again, come up with your own system besides RECENCY BIAS

My system is to take the last few years (3, per your example) and ask the following:

Who has played better in the regular season? Rodgers
Is it close? If so, compare playoffs. Not particularly, but let's continue

Who has played better in the playoffs? Rodgers
Is it close? If so, compare teams around them. Not particularly <--- I'm here

Who has a better team around them? Brady in TB, Rodgers when Brady was in NE
Is it close? If so, compare team success. Sure

Who has had better team success? Brady

----------

I give Brady an extra bump in my ratings GIVEN his team success and leadership, but that's baked in already to the ranking. Statistically, he's probably 5-10 range? (without looking anything up), but I have him at 3 (per my previous post), because of those qualities.

 

38 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

In 2016 it was ridiculous not to worship Cam coming off an MVP

In 2017 it was ridiculous not to worship Matt Ryan coming off an MVP

In 2020 it was ridiculous not to worship Lamar Jackson coming off an MVP

Which one of those QBs was even top 10 in rating the next year?

Cam and Lamar had questions about their passing because their MVP years were heavily predicated on their ability to run as well (Cam with completion % and Lamar with volume, in particular).

Matt Ryan was absolutely reasonable to have as a top 3 QB after 2016 before 2017, especially considering his playoff run.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 9/9/2021 at 11:13 PM, DoleINGout said:

1. Brady

2. Mahomes

3. Herbert

4. Prescott

5. Allen

6. Rodgers

7. Stafford

8. R. Wilson

9. Jackson

10. Murray

11. Burrow

12. Mayfield

HM: Mac, Garoppolo, Z. Wilson, Roethlisberger, Hurts

After the start of the 2021 szn:

1. Brady 2. Mahomes 3. Herbert 4. R. Wilson 5. Jackson 6. Prescott 7. Stafford 8. Murray 9. M. Jones 10. Rodgers 11. J. Allen 12. Garoppolo

Edited by DoleINGout
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