Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[Forge]

He has a shot at the bottom of the top 10, but I think the idea of "cementing himself" there is probably not something I would say. I mean, if there were two open spots at 9 and 10, on any given year I think that they could be populated by Baker, Carr, Cousins, Stafford, etc, etc. Very little variance in that tier, I think. 

 

[DawgX]

1 hour ago, Bullet Club said:

Cement? He wasn't top 10 last year. He's more of a game manager than a franchise guy. He'll be that above average QB for the foreseeable future but certainly not a guy who is carrying anyone anywhere.

You didn't watch him in the second half of the season or so.

[SBLIII]

9 minutes ago, DawgX said:

You didn't watch him in the second half of the season or so.

He was better but he is still very much in the prove it phase. A franchise guy will be great no matter the situation. Even if Baker is great this year this still doesn't prove it because how well will he do without a great OL and Chubb? I think you are hoping he is going from Dak where everyone assumed everything must be perfect around him to where people have a lot more confident in Dak regardless now and consider him a top 7 QB. That's where I could see Baker when things go well for him. If he isn't close to top 5 production this year with Chubb and the OL, I wouldn't have much confidence he actually reaches and sustains those heights longterm. This has to be a really, really good season by Baker because things will likely be more difficult in the future. 

[Mox]

8 minutes ago, DawgX said:

You didn't watch him in the second half of the season or so.

Generic response from fan of (insert team) about (insert team's player).

Maybe he played better in the second half because six of the eight teams sucked (FIVE teams with 4 or less wins, plus the beat up Giants), and the two teams that didn't held him in check.

[buno67]

29 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

A franchise guy will be great no matter the situation

Name franchise QBs over the past 20yrs or so that went through 3 different HCs, 3 different OCs in their first 3 years? I’m curious of who you find out?

Lets not act like what Baker went through was actually the norm for franchise QBs. 
 

situations do matter. Browns have been a bad situation for years and it’s the reason there were so many Qb failures. Baker for some reason was able to over come the crap and has helped the franchise right it self.

really once a franchise QB develops and settles in they can sustain in any situation but how many guys succeed in chaos their first couple seasons. I don’t see Allen or Lamar surviving the first 2 yrs in Cleveland. Those guys walked into ideal situations for QBs that were raw but loaded with potential. 

35 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

If he isn't close to top 5 production this year with Chubb and the OL

When it comes to pure production, I Don’t think Baker will ever be top5, might come Close but Stefanski’s system isn’t going to allow that. When you are looking at adv stats, efficiency, and Etc. After week7, those metrics were showing him as a top5 QB. 

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, DawgX said:

3 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

Cement? He wasn't top 10 last year. He's more of a game manager than a franchise guy. He'll be that above average QB for the foreseeable future but certainly not a guy who is carrying anyone anywhere.

You didn't watch him in the second half of the season or so.

Honestly, down the stretch he "game managed" moreso than he ever has in his career.

Usually when someone says game manager they are talking about short or quick passes and letting other guys carry the load. Baker has always been near the top of the league in air yards up until the later part of last year (IIRC) where he did let the backs and tight ends into the game more with quick/short passes.

Of course there was the Titans game where he lit it up in the first half and they cruised on offense after that and the Ravens game where he was firing downfield a lot but mostly he took more of a game manager role (you can see from his interception total) later in the year.

[Kiwibrown]

IMO Baker is dependent on protection more than weapons. If the Browns offensive line is good he will be a top 5-10 QB. 

He needs average weapons and good protection to be successful, I think we have excellent protection and very good weapons. 

Where he will be great is in efficiencey rather than bulk stats, I think he will push 70% completions with a very high YPA. I could see something like 4200yards 70% completions and 30TDs. 

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

A franchise guy will be great no matter the situation.

That just isn't true. Give a QB two bad tackles and he will struggle no matter who he is.

[FrantikRam]

I'd take Mahomes, Wilson, Allen, Rodgers, Jackson, Watson, Tannehil, Stafford, Cousins, Herbert and Murray over him for sure.

I think id take Roethlisberger and Burrow over him too.

Imagine Burrow with that OL and run game....yikes.

I think Baker is right there with Goff. We were having this same conversation about Goff when the Rams had a top OL and top talent at the skill positions.

So I think he's in that 15-20 range, maybe worse. It's hard to imagine a starting caliber QB who wouldn't have success with that talent.

[AngusMcFife]

I love these Wilson > Lamar comments. 

Lamar is the 2nd ever unanimous MVP (Brady) and the 2nd youngest MVP ever (Jim Brown). Wilson has never received a single MVP vote. 

If you give Lamar strong O-line play with below average skill players, he is a dominant force, MVP. If you give Wilson great WRs, he is only successful if he also has a great rushing attack to set up play action passes. He needs a strong run-blocking O-line and RB or else he just isn't that good. 

People who think Lamar regressed last year just have poor football knowledge. The offensive line severely regressed, yet they were still 11-4 with him in the lineup. Lamar carries the offense single-handedly. 

Wilson is much more reliant on great WRs and play action. The difference is the Wilson is not a good enough runner anymore to generate a strong run game. Lamar's running ability alone guarantees the Ravens will be at the top of the league in yards per carry. 

Take away the years that Russel Wilson was carried by an all time elite defense, and his playoff record isn't much. 1-3 the past 3 years, same as Lamar. 3-5 since 2015. 

Lamar is an ascending player, and Wilson is declining. Wilson needs more help, and his ceiling is much lower. 

[SkippyX]

Cam and Matt Ryan won MVPs. Are they better than Wilson?

Wilson's 2015 was incredible. Who cares about voters or that Cam had a slightly better year with his 10 rushing TDs?

 

By this point in his career (3 years) Wilson had a Lombardi and 6 playoff wins.

[hornbybrown]

It’s funny how much people hate him and can’t get past that to make a fair view on him.

 

His second half of the year last year was top three in the league. It wasn’t a accident and for the first time in his four years he isn’t learning a new offensive system 

[FrantikRam]

9 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I love these Wilson > Lamar comments. 

Lamar is the 2nd ever unanimous MVP (Brady) and the 2nd youngest MVP ever (Jim Brown). Wilson has never received a single MVP vote. 

If you give Lamar strong O-line play with below average skill players, he is a dominant force, MVP. If you give Wilson great WRs, he is only successful if he also has a great rushing attack to set up play action passes. He needs a strong run-blocking O-line and RB or else he just isn't that good. 

People who think Lamar regressed last year just have poor football knowledge. The offensive line severely regressed, yet they were still 11-4 with him in the lineup. Lamar carries the offense single-handedly. 

Wilson is much more reliant on great WRs and play action. The difference is the Wilson is not a good enough runner anymore to generate a strong run game. Lamar's running ability alone guarantees the Ravens will be at the top of the league in yards per carry. 

Take away the years that Russel Wilson was carried by an all time elite defense, and his playoff record isn't much. 1-3 the past 3 years, same as Lamar. 3-5 since 2015. 

Lamar is an ascending player, and Wilson is declining. Wilson needs more help, and his ceiling is much lower. 

 

 

Lol wow. Clearly you aren't actually aware of Wilson's body of work. Last year was the first time in Wilson's career that he had "great" WRs. Metcalf - last year - is the first time Wilson had a true number one WR.

His OL is consistently trash - and Seattle has decided to ignore that Aaron Donald exists for roster construction, which has led to 20% of his sacks coming at the hands of the Rams. 

Which points to the Idiocracy of Pete Carroll. Meanwhile Baltimore has gone all in on building around Lamar's strengths. Wilson would have loved that commitment.

You talk about people having poor football knowledge and then posted this nonsense:

"If you give Wilson great WRs, he is only successful if he also has a great rushing attack to set up play action passes. He needs a strong run-blocking O-line and RB or else he just isn't that good."

 

If you're just an LJ stan that's fine but at least make sure you're somewhat aware of Russell Wilson's actual body of work before posting that.

[MSURacerDT55]

16 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

What I'm saying is that I'd put them on the same level. You can make the recency case for Allen just as easily as you can make the body of work case for Lamar. 

Also, this falling off Lamar had was exaggerated. He did have some struggles, but overall what he was able to do with his supporting cast and Greg Roman play-calling was still very impressive. It would probably surprise most in this thread to know that Wilson's Seahawks had basically the same offensive output per drive as the Ravens did last year. Source at bottom table here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/#team_stats. If you exclude that ugly Wednesday COVID game against the Steelers which Lamar didn't play (14 points on 12 drives), then Lamar would clearly be on the plus side.

Funny how its OK for you to make excuses for Lamar yet when we tried to explain when Baker played a game with the whole WR room had Covid, or when we had 2 games with 40 mile an hour wind gust and you all were not hearing it. Good times....

15 hours ago, SBLIII said:

He was better but he is still very much in the prove it phase. A franchise guy will be great no matter the situation. Even if Baker is great this year this still doesn't prove it because how well will he do without a great OL and Chubb? I think you are hoping he is going from Dak where everyone assumed everything must be perfect around him to where people have a lot more confident in Dak regardless now and consider him a top 7 QB. That's where I could see Baker when things go well for him. If he isn't close to top 5 production this year with Chubb and the OL, I wouldn't have much confidence he actually reaches and sustains those heights longterm. This has to be a really, really good season by Baker because things will likely be more difficult in the future. 

 How? Explain

Edited September 3, 2021 by MSURacerDT55

[AngusMcFife]

8 hours ago, SkippyX said:

Cam and Matt Ryan won MVPs. Are they better than Wilson?

Wilson's 2015 was incredible. Who cares about voters or that Cam had a slightly better year with his 10 rushing TDs?

 

By this point in his career (3 years) Wilson had a Lombardi and 6 playoff wins.

Actually, by this time in Wilson's career, he hadn't taken a single snap in the NFL. You are actually going to ignore the fact that Russel debuted at age 24 and Lamar at 21?