Frankie2Gunz Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mr Raider said: You need to stop using betting odds as evidence to support your claim when it comes to how talented or untalented our team is. Odds aren't always an indication of talent or whether a team is good. It's about the sports book making the odds making money... I'm not saying talent doesn't go into it at all, but what goes into it significantly that you are completely writing off viewing it this way, is their attempts at balancing things in their favor and ensuring they aren't forced to payout ridiculous money. Another aspect is that the odds are always changing depending on the time of year. Based in large part around where the money has already been placed by betters. Lets use last year for example. They had us as a +4000 to win the super bowl, with an over under for wins at 7.5. We hit the over. Would you argue the team last year is clearly a superior team to our roster this year? I wouldn't overall. But we could debate that. What isn't debatable though was preseason last year (the + obviously being odds to win the super bowl) they had the Patriots with the same exact odds as us, the Bills were +3000 with an over under of 9, the Packers were +3000 with an over under of 8.5, the Eagles were +3000 with an over under of 9.5, the Vikings were +2000 with an over under of 9, the Cowboys were +1200 with an over under of 10, the 49ers had the same odds as the Bucs (third best in the NFL) +1000 but the Bucs over under was 9.5 and the 49ers was 10.5. The Ravens had the 2nd best odds to win the super bowl at +500 to the Chiefs +450. Yet the Ravens lost in the divisional round to the Bills who were literally the next time above us and the Patriots in terms of odds (tied with 3 other teams) at 11th overall in terms of odds. On the flip side you have teams like the Dolphins who coming into the season had the 5th worst odds in the NFL to win it all at +10000 and an over under of 6, the Football team had the 2nd worst odds at +30000 and an over under of 5, the Browns were +5000 with an over under of 8.5, the Rams were +5000 with an over under of 8.5 as well. All of those teams had worse odds than we did to win it all last season, and all of them either made the playoffs or they were the first one out. Would you say that we clearly have a better roster last season than the Browns, Rams, Football team, Dolphins? Would you say we had an inferior roster to the Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys? Would you say that our roster is literally exactly equal in terms of overall talent to the Patriots, and Broncos (whos odds were identical to ours and the Patriots at +4000 and an o/u of 7.5)? Would you say our roster was next in line directly behind the Packers, Bills, and Titans in terms of talent overall? Do use the odds the way that you do as a clear indictment on talent like that is the only thing that goes into those odds you better answer yes to all of those questions, because that is what the Vegas odds makers said about our talent level. And you can't have it both ways. It's not always about talent or the rosters overall strength. A LARGE part of it is fluctuating and making sure the money that has came in on bets for teams doesn't leave the book in a legitimately dangerous position to having to pay out more than they bring in. That is something that has nothing to do with talent but does contribute heavily to the odds. I fail to see what on this team roster wise is such a sure thing to be significantly worse this season compared to last that will surely tank our success this season. Perhaps the OL. But QB? Nope. WR? Nope, not a sure thing to be worse, in fact could be significantly better with growth from a couple of high potential 2nd year guys, TE? Obviously not. RB? Nobody could argue that spot hasn't been improved overall. DE? Not even close. LB? Clearly a better unit than last season. CB? It might not be a good unit, but in my eyes it's clearly better than last season. Same with S. Depth overall? I don't see it. Is a new center and RT (because Good may not have been the starter coming into last season but he did play as guard or RT almost the entire year, same with Richie being out but was apart of their odds set prior to last year) really going to tank the team that significantly? If it's all about talent you are saying the odds makers are saying James starting at Center, Richie coming off an injury, and Leatherwood starting at RT is guaranteed to be a worse unit, but is also going to be so bad that it will be bad enough to overcome improvements (we can argue how much) at RB, TE (with Moreau taking Wittens snaps), DE, DT, LB, CB, and S to derail the entire season. Last question, have the Panthers, Giants, Falcons, Cardinals, Football team, Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins ALL, as in every single one of those teams, improved so significantly over our roster and the changes we have made this season that they with certainty passed our team in terms of overall talent? Once again, this answer HAS to be yes in addition to all those other questions I've already asked for the odds to be solely indicative of teams overall talent level and nothing else. Because all of those teams had worse odds than us last year to win it all (except the Broncos who were tied) last season and have better odds to win it all this season. Perhaps there is more to odds than simply how talented teams are... I've used SB odds to reinforce the multiple, independent articles I've referenced stating that we have a roster with not much proven talent. Both ESPN and PFF have our roster amongst the worst in the entire NFL, our +8000 odds to win the SB are indicative of having a HC who is a joke and a roster still devoid of proven talent. Are SB odds an exact science, no, but they are indicative of talent and overall expectations of how a team will preform. Odds indicate that KC and TB are the two most likely to win the SB and the Texans and Lions have the worst chance. Do you not agree that and do you not think those odds are indicative of roster talent and coaching? Do we have a better roster than last year, yes we do but I also believe that we had a roster last season that should have had 4 to 5 wins, we overachieved. A roster "getting better on paper" is not a zero sum game and does not indicate that since we had 8 wins last year and now are allegedly better that will translate into more wins. Other teams have also improved, we play different teams etc. In my opinion we have below average to average roster talent this upcoming season and a below average HC/GM. If we end the season below .500 both Gruden and Mayock need to be fired. Edited September 6, 2021 by Frankie2Gunz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfrey13 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said: We had the worst, most pathetic D of the decade.... "players were better" LOL That's like saying a trash bin fire is better than a dumpster fire.... It shows that our garbage D coordinators held them back. To what degree remains to be seen. I am not saying we have a bunch of pro bowlers but they are not as bad as they have played. If we can cut down on the turnovers on offense, get some good coaching, and play more aggressive on defense they will be much improved. I am not even taking into considerartion the improvement in talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 (edited) Interesting choice. Quick google search and 34 was a college number Edited September 6, 2021 by agarcia34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 1 hour ago, drfrey13 said: It shows that our garbage D coordinators held them back. To what degree remains to be seen. I am not saying we have a bunch of pro bowlers but they are not as bad as they have played. If we can cut down on the turnovers on offense, get some good coaching, and play more aggressive on defense they will be much improved. I am not even taking into considerartion the improvement in talent. Frankie doesn't realize that improvement is possible, the Buccaneers leaped from the 30th best scoring defense to the 8th best scoring defense in a single season. Certainly a lot of "ifs" across the board for us on defense but I like the blend of youth and veterans that have played at a high level throughout their careers. I think we'll see a big improvement with Bradley as the DC and the additions of guys like McCoy, Wright, Hayward, Yannick, and Moehrig. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Frankie2Gunz said: Other teams have also improved, we play different teams etc. Our schedule actually lines up pretty nicely to start the season though, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie2Gunz Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Our schedule actually lines up pretty nicely to start the season though, lol. The Ravens and Pit. will be tough games. If we come out 1 and 1 I consider that a success. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Just now, Frankie2Gunz said: The Ravens and Pit. will be tough games. If we come out 1 and 1 I consider that a success. The Ravens game will be tough but it's also the first home game in Vegas with fans so I expect the atmosphere to be electric. They'll also be without 3 of their best WR, their best RB, have a rebuilt offensive line, and lost their two best pass rushers from last years group. Not to mention Lamar Jackson had limited time with the team in camp due to having covid. The Steelers are overrated in my opinion, we may lose, but I think it's a winnable game. They also have a rebuilt offensive line with a rookie LT and a LG/C who are going into year 2 but each of them only have 3 career starts. Not to mention they lost Bud Dupree and TJ Watt is still holding out/hasn't practiced because he wants to get paid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfrey13 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, NYRaider said: The Ravens game will be tough but it's also the first home game in Vegas with fans so I expect the atmosphere to be electric. They'll also be without 3 of their best WR, their best RB, have a rebuilt offensive line, and lost their two best pass rushers from last years group. Not to mention Lamar Jackson had limited time with the team in camp due to having covid. The Steelers are overrated in my opinion, we may lose, but I think it's a winnable game. They also have a rebuilt offensive line with a rookie LT and a LG/C who are going into year 2 but each of them only have 3 career starts. Not to mention they lost Bud Dupree and TJ Watt is still holding out/hasn't practiced because he wants to get paid. I said it last year after they played WFT that the Steelers team is very overrated. I see that as a winnable game and believe we are a better team but it is close. The team better be pumped to play the Ravens. We should win that one although I think the Ravens are a better team. I would not be surprised with us starting 2-0. I do not think they will but after the Ravens we have a good chance to win the next 7 games. The only teams I would confidently sa are better than us right now are the Colts (not 100% sure because of Wentz), Ravens, and Chiefs. @jeremy408 would probably agree that even though our SOS is not low our schedule looks like 2016 when we played a lot of middle of the road type teams and not a lot of top team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Just now, drfrey13 said: I said it last year after they played WFT that the Steelers team is very overrated. I see that as a winnable game and believe we are a better team but it is close. The Steelers have a ton of weapons on offense but they're going to be starting a rookie LT and two other OL who are essentially rookies. They also have a new offensive coordinator and Big Ben's arm looked shot towards the end of last year. Bud Dupree is gone and from the sounds of it I doubt TJ Watt will be playing either. Still a tough game either way but definitely winnable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakdb36 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Just now, oakdb36 said: So KJ and Littleton will be 3-down LB's while Kwit/Perryman rotate in until Morrow is back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfrey13 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, NYRaider said: The Steelers have a ton of weapons on offense but they're going to be starting a rookie LT and two other OL who are essentially rookies. They also have a new offensive coordinator and Big Ben's arm looked shot towards the end of last year. Bud Dupree is gone and from the sounds of it I doubt TJ Watt will be playing either. Still a tough game either way but definitely winnable. If we go 2-0 I think even Frankie might admit we have more talent than he thought. I have no doubt that the defense will improve but it is a matter of how much. I am more concerned with the offense being able to maintain what they did last year. The only direction the defense can go in is up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfrey13 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, oakdb36 said: If you count Mack as a DE Wright will be the best LB to play for us in decades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, drfrey13 said: If we go 2-0 I think even Frankie might admit we have more talent than he thought. I have no doubt that the defense will improve but it is a matter of how much. I am more concerned with the offense being able to maintain what they did last year. The only direction the defense can go in is up. Yeah we have a young OL and a young group of WR's with minimal depth at both spots. Need both groups to step up this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidersAreOne Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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