Nzd07 Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said: The division looks to be tougher as a whole - NE should be better, the Jets look like they might have a pulse, Miami should be better. That means you go from 4 lollipops (NE, NY) and two games that might be competitive but vs a team Buf is better than (Mia) to 6 "better than that team but they'll make us work for it" games. I don’t know about that. 2 rookie QBs (granted, both looked pretty solid in preseason), Gilmore is also hurt and disgruntled. I do agree that Miami could take a jump, I like Fuller and Waddle is an excellent weapon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr A W Niloc Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 There are three teams worth considering for #1 in the AFC (all of which could be favored over the best NFC teams): New England, Buffalo, Kansas City. There are two basic approaches to independent evaluation: how they fared as a team last year or who their players are in 2021. This means: DVOA, including Total, Offense, Defense, and Special Teams ("TODS"), adjusting for who has been added/lost in the offseason; or, the PFF aggregate sum-of-all-parts approach ("Agg"), adjusting for coaching. In the case of N.E.'s TODS you have to go back to 2019 (3-3-14-11), 2018 (7-5-19-16), or 2017 (6-1-31-3) to see how anomalous the COVID-19 (22-23-26-1 in 2020) year was. N.E.: TODS: 3-3-14-11 Agg: = 3-2-9 WoS: 1-15-2-1 (QB-RB-WR-TE) Buff: TODS: 4-5-12-4 Agg: = 14-6-19 WoS: 18-25-10-13 (QB-RB-WR-TE) K.C.: TODS: 9-2-22-17 Agg: = 17-10-17 WoS: 21-14-26-22 (QB-RB-WR-TE) As you can see, Buffalo and Kansas City overperformed, largely because of practice time, and might do so again. All three franchises have great coaches, elite offenses and average defenses. Obviously, New England has added a lot of talent in the offseason. The deciding factor will be positional weaknesses of schedule, which favor the Patriots overwhelmingly. Either way, the AFC-East is going to produce the winningest Wild Card team in NFL history. I do think the Bills will edge out Kansas City for #2. None of these teams is regressing in 2021. For a franchise whose first two picks were 58th and 114th in the draft the Chiefs made out like bandits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntonChigurh Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 How are the Bills the "team to beat" and they havent done anything? Make it make sense 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirill Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Yea, they’re the team for KC to beat. And they’re gonna get beat. I truly believe the turnaround in talent we did on the offensive line this season is the greatest of all time. Orlando brown joe thuney creed Humphrey and Trey Smith will all be pro bowl caliber players mark my words. And you look up and down the rest of the roster the only guy we lost was Sammy Watkins. C’mon man we’re the team to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirill Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 40 minutes ago, AntonChigurh said: How are the Bills the "team to beat" and they havent done anything? Make it make sense If Tyreek hill gets hurt or some scenario they could definitely beat KC and go win a Super Bowl. Your way more concerned about facing the bills than the ravens but yea they ain’t the team to beat that’s the chiefs who just went out and built the best offensive line in this league and could be looking at a 20-0 season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 OP username checks out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y*so*blu Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 You spelled Bucs wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Sees thread name and looks at username and both check out correctly lol Bills got some question marks on that defensive line and that running game that easily make them not the team to beat. In the AFC East sure, but thats about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buno67 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 8 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said: Ah, yes, the Bucs who finished 2nd in their division at 11-5 and could have lost either the NFCCG or Super Bowl had the OLs of the other teams been a smidge healthier. Bucs took advantage of the KCs bad OL? Why didn’t the Bills do the same? Bucs were able to put up 31 pts on that KC defense, the same defense the Bills struggled to score even 24pts on. DVOA has Bucs as the 2nd best team behind NO. Bills were 4th. Bucs are the team to beat! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 On 9/4/2021 at 4:12 AM, BillSabre said: I truly believe the Bills will have the best record in the league while simultaneously having the number one offense in the league. Thoughts on this? Hmm let's see... Nope, doesn't check out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 11 hours ago, Kirill said: If Tyreek hill gets hurt or some scenario they could definitely beat KC and go win a Super Bowl. Your way more concerned about facing the bills than the ravens but yea they ain’t the team to beat that’s the chiefs who just went out and built the best offensive line in this league and could be looking at a 20-0 season. I'm not concerned about either. I'm more concerned about LAC than both of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Contender, yes. Team to beat, nah. KC and TB are the teams to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 If the additions they added to their pass rush works out I could see this. Right now though the Bucs are the most overwhelming favorites imo to win a super bowl in some time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 (edited) This is not to upset Bills fans, but I see some regression TBH with them this year. If you look at last year, Josh Allen played out of his dam mind and they threw the ball 70x per game and Diggs got 40 targets per game. If you look at how they won last year, I just wonder if that is sustainable for another year. They didnt really add anybody of note (Sanders at this point is not of note) and their running game is not going to be any better than it was last year. Sure their defense will most likely be top 10-12--I just wonder if Josh Allen can deliver in the manner he did last year...again. With zero run game and passing like crazy to only 1 real above average offensive weapon. It seems like come playoff time that system would be really easy to falter. Edited September 9, 2021 by AkronsWitness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 4 hours ago, AkronsWitness said: This is not to upset Bills fans, but I see some regression TBH with them this year. If you look at last year, Josh Allen played out of his dam mind and they threw the ball 70x per game and Diggs got 40 targets per game. If you look at how they won last year, I just wonder if that is sustainable for another year. They didnt really add anybody of note (Sanders at this point is not of note) and their running game is not going to be any better than it was last year. Sure their defense will most likely be top 10-12--I just wonder if Josh Allen can deliver in the manner he did last year...again. With zero run game and passing like crazy to only 1 real above average offensive weapon. It seems like come playoff time that system would be really easy to falter. Yeah I agree. Josh Allen has doubled or nothing his QB play year on year, can't see it again. A slight regression to mean should be expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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