2021 TNF Season opener: DAL @ TB

[ChazStandard]

1 hour ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Why did Dallas get to open against the Buccaneers again? Because they're "Dallas"??? I don't remember a huge offseason hype machine surrounding the Cowboys. 

Just one of those things. The SB champion always opens at home, preferably against a non-division rival. And this year the Bucs premier matchups (Pats, Rams) are on the road. That said, I would have picked Buffalo over Dallas.

[ChazStandard]

1 hour ago, notthatbluestuff said:

What happened to Mahomes in the Super Bowl is like being tickled with feathers compared to what's coming for Dak and Zeke in this game. 

Is the Dallas OL really that bad? Obviously Martin is a big loss, but I thought they were pretty solid all across the line.

[Jeezla]

TB run game going to rack up a lot of yards, and Parsons going to rack up a lot of tackles after those RB's have run for 5+ yards. At least that's what I hope, since I play against Mike Evans and AB in week 1.

Edited September 5, 2021 by Jeezla

[e16bball]

Wow, no love for Dallas. 30 votes to 3? Gonna have to jump in and play devil’s advocate here. Allow me to pull on my 10-gallon Cowboys hat and argue this in the style we know and love. 

▪️ If you look at the stats, Dallas has a clear advantage at the QB position. Dak outpassed Tom by over 80 yards per game last year. That’s the same difference in yards per game that separated Tom from Daniel Jones, so it’s an obvious mismatch through the air. Then add in that Tom had 6 total rush yards — which is nearly the same amount Dak gained on his average run (5.2 yards) — and it’s a total blowout. Hard to see how Tom keeps up. 

▪️ Much is made of the Bucs’ receiving trio of Evans, Godwin, and Brown. But Dallas has their own trio, and it’s clear that theirs is the more talented group. The average NFL draft pick of TB’s group is 95.3 (7th for Evans, 84th for Godwin, and 195th for AB). The Dallas trio? Average draft pick of 34.0 (4th for Cooper, 17th for Lamb, and 81st for Gallup). Based on the views of all the NFL’s talent evaluators, it’s clear that the Dallas guys were deemed to have more raw talent. 

▪️ Zeke Elliott is clearly the best RB on either team. But what people may not know is that Dallas also has the 2nd best RB in the game, in Tony Pollard. His 4.8 career Y/A far outpaces any of TB’s guys (4.5 for RoJo, 4.0 for Gio, and a paltry 3.9 for Fournette). He’s also (almost) the youngest and has the least tread on his tires, so there’s reason to think that gap will only get wider. 

▪️ Not one of TB’s OL has ever been named to a Pro Bowl or an All-Pro team. Even without Zack Martin, Dallas has 7-infinity times more Pro Bowls and 2-infinity times more All-Pros between all 5 of their OL. 

▪️ Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory had a combined 169.2 PFF rating last year, while Shaq Barrett and JPP only combined for a 139.9 rating. Clear edge rush advantage for Dallas. 

▪️ On the surface, it might seem like TB should get the edge at DT with Vea and Suh matched up against Justin Hamilton, Carlos Watkins, Odi O, and Brent Urban. But  it’s an underestimated advantage that the Cowboys have 4 guys of basically equal skill level that they can rotate in and out at any given time. You’ll never know who might be across from the center at any given time. The element of surprise is huge, especially in Week One. Also, no duo of DTs who both have only 3 letters in their last name has ever had consecutive dominant seasons together, so history is stacked against the Bucs there as well. 

▪️ At LB, it’s strength vs. strength. But when you break it down to individual matchups, Dallas’s advantage becomes clear. Vander Esch and Lavonte David have both made one All-Pro team, so that’s a wash. LVE is younger and bigger, so give him the slight edge. Comparing the young studs, Devin White might have been drafted higher, and he might have already proved he’s a star in the NFL, but Micah Parsons beat him out for PFF’s All-Era Team, which speaks volumes. In terms of depth, Jabril Cox had an excellent preseason and Jaylon Smith is very highly paid. 

▪️ In the secondary, TB looks solid and many people question the Cowboys. But that’s foolish, because while we’ve seen most/all these guys play (poorly) in the NFL before, we’ve never seen them all play together under Dan Quinn. So anything could happen. TB’s secondary is probably a solid B to B+, but since we know literally nothing about this Dallas secondary, they could be anything from an A+ to an F-. So in terms of upside, theirs is clearly higher, as there’s very little chance TB proves to have an A+ secondary. 

▪️ Special teams often swings games, which bodes well for Dallas. The Cowboys have Greg Zuerlein locked in and ready to go, while Tampa Bay doesn’t even know for sure who will be kicking for them. Zuerlein has been one of the least accurate kickers in the league over the last two seasons, which means the law of regression to the mean suggests he’ll be excellent. Plus, his accuracy improved by almost 10% last season, so if he continues on that same trajectory, he’ll be well over 93% this season. The Bucs have two kickers, which means a lot of pressure on whichever kicker takes the field. That uncertainty could be a real negative for them.

▪️It’s still not entirely clear who the Cowboys will have punting for them. That uncertainty could be a real positive for them. While it will assuredly be Bryan Anger, it could be anyone. It could be a left-footed punter, or a rugby style punter, or a punter with an innovative style of dropping the ball onto his foot. Hard to prepare for. On the other hand, Bradley Pinion was so bad in SF that the 49ers burned a 4th-round pick just to replace him. How good can he possibly be?

▪️ At the pivotal LS position, Jake McQuaide is an 11-year vet for Dallas, while Zach Triner has only been doing it for 3 years. Based on their respective experience, who do you trust to snap the ball with the game on the line and the entire nation watching? That’s what I thought.

▪️ Both Coach Arians and Coach McCarthy have won one Super Bowl championship. Serious NFL fans will recognize that both men won with teams largely powered by their superstar QBs, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Brady is the GOAT and Rodgers is not, which suggests McCarthy had to do more to win his SB. Another edge for Dallas.

▪️ Tampa Bay has not beaten Dallas since eking out a 10-6 win in 2015, over half a decade ago. That’s called having a team’s number, and you have to assume that kind of of domination looms large in the back of the Bucs’ minds. Recent success matters, so you’ve got a major mental edge there for Dallas over Tampa Bay. 
 

In the end, contrary to popular opinion, a true deep dive — powered by stats, advanced metrics, an understanding of NFL history, and basic logic — indicates that Dallas has the likely edge at every position across the board. Except for TE, and even there, remember you can’t spell “Jarwin” without “W-I-N.” It seems clear Dallas is the superior team, and I assume all the TB picks are due only to the fact that the Cowboys are typically an under-the-radar team that you never hear anything about from the national media. Everything seems to favor Dallas here. 

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Dallas 16

Edited September 5, 2021 by e16bball

[biggie.]

Quote

If you look at the stats, Dallas has a clear advantage at the QB position. Dak outpassed Tom by over 80 yards per game last year. That’s the same difference in yards per game that separated Tom from Daniel Jones, so it’s an obvious mismatch through the air. Then add in that Tom had 6 total rush yards — which is nearly the same amount Dak gained on his average run (5.2 yards) — and it’s a total blowout. Hard to see how Tom keeps up. 

Edited September 5, 2021 by biggie.

[FinSting]

Micah Parsons, 16 tackles, 4 TFL. 

 

[CP3MVP]

Tampa 41-20

 

Brady has 4 Touchdowns 

Edited September 6, 2021 by CP3MVP

[Jakuvious]

I see no logical justification for Dallas winning this, which means they probably will.

[Jakuvious]

10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Everyone bashing our defense has no clue what they are talking about. How do I know this? Because I am following our defense extremely close and even I have absolutely no clue what our defense will look like in 2021. There are about 10-12 new starters/heavy rotation and a new defensive staff. From wee 1 last year to week 1 this year we will have like ~3 people in their same roles/contribution levels. 

 

Absolutely clueless to if they will be a bottom 5 unit again or if they have a chance to be something respectable. 

I feel like that level of turnover inherently does not bode well for week 1 cohesion though, right? By year's end, sure, a lot could happen, but I would think this would be a bad sign for them performing well out of the gate.

[Matts4313]

11 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

I feel like that level of turnover inherently does not bode well for week 1 cohesion though, right? By year's end, sure, a lot could happen, but I would think this would be a bad sign for them performing well out of the gate.

Sure. It also means that the Bucs dont have any tape of how this group of guys plays.

[///mcompact]

4 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

I see no logical justification for Dallas winning this, which means they probably will.

This.   

Dallas:

-  Plays down to lesser teams but usually wins in squeekers

-  Doesn't hit .500 against average teams.

-  Gets throttled by above-average teams

-  Against clearly superior teams?  They play like its their Super Bowl and sometimes get the upset win.   

Do I think that's happening this Thursday?  Well, not at all...which means they probably will.   

[kingseanjohn]

Will be interesting to see if any of these guys can play. I read Martin is for sure out. 

 

[sryan66611]

4 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Sure. It also means that the Bucs dont have any tape of how this group of guys plays.

buuuuut  brady has done pretty well vs.  Dan Quinn defenses

[Hunter2_1]

after he works it out...

 

Super Bowls vs. Dan Quinn	Comp	Att	PCT	Yards	Yards/Att	TDs	INTs	QB Rating	Points Scored
Tom Brady, Quarters 1-3
vs. Seahawks	23	34	67.65%	198	5.82	2	2	77.8	14
vs. Falcons	21	34	61.76%	220	6.47	1	1	78.1	9
Tom Brady, 4th Quarter & OT
vs. Seahawks	14	16	87.50%	130	8.13	2	0	140.1	14
vs. Falcons	22	28	78.57%	246	8.79	1	0	115.2	25

[Nabbs4u]

4 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

Will be interesting to see if any of these guys can play. I read Martin is for sure out. 

 

So curious how many of the 10 above are vaccinated? If all , 🤔🤔. If several are not at what number does something like this fall under the new rule about unvaccinated players causing an outbreak leading to a Forfiet? A 1/4 of the roster instead of a 1/6?