SBLIII Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 As the season kicks off tomorrow night, it would be interesting to hear everyone's opinion on that and revisit that during and after the season. Most people think the SB will be won by the Chiefs, Bucs, Packers, Rams, Bills, Ravens, Browns etc. and it might, but if not which team nobody talks about and has at best fringe playoff aspirations will actually contend for the SB and possibly win it? NFL's party crashers in the last 10 years 2011: San Francisco 49ers, 7.5 win total, 50/1 SB odds. 13-3 record, lost in conference championship game. 2012: Seattle Seahawks, 7.5 win total, 50/1 SB odds, 11-5 record, lost in divisional round. 2013: Carolina Panthers, 7 win total, 50/1 SB odds, 12-4 record, lost in divisional playoff. 2014: Dallas Cowboys, 8 win total, 75/1 SB odds, 12-4 record, lost in divisional playoff. 2015: Carolina Panthers, 8.5 win total, 60/1 SB odds, 15-1 record, lost in SB 2016: Atlanta Falcons, 7 win total, 80/1 SB odds, 11-5 record, lost in SB 2017: Philadelphia Eagles, 8.5 win total, 40/1 SB odds, 13-3 record, won SB 2018: Kansas City Chiefs, 8.5 win total, 30/1 SB odds, 12-4 record, lost in conference championship 2019: San Francisco 49ers, 8 win total, 40/1 SB odds, 13-3 record, lost in SB 2020: Green Bay Packers, 8.5 win total, 30/1 SB odds, 13-3 record, lost in conference championship In most years there even has been a 2nd team like the 2019 Ravens, 2017 Vikings or 2015 Cardinals. In 4 of the last 10 years a party crasher has made the Super Bowl and in 3 additional years the final 4. The range was SB odds 30/1 to 80/1 and a win total of 7 to 8.5. With the additional year it's probably 7.5/8 to 9/9.5 now. The beauty of sports is that nobody will see it coming but it will happen, one of these teams will go from seen as a decent team that might make the playoff to major Super Bowl threat: - Dallas Cowboys - New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins - Los Angeles Chargers - New Orleans Saints - Indianapolis Colts - Arizona Cardinals - Denver Broncos - Minnesota Vikings - Pittsburgh Steelers - Chicago Bears - Washington Football Team - Atlanta Falcons - Carolina Panthers There is a very real chance 2 teams out of this group will contend but for all intends and purposes which team will be the party crasher in your opinion? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 They probably wouldn't be my pick to do it but maybe the Bears? A rookie QB winning the Super Bowl is bound to happen one day, and I think Fields plays on a team that would have as good of a chance as any rookie-led teams. Bears defense regressed last year, but I think they should still be at the very least league average and they do have some impact players on that side. They have the playmakers on offense that could help Fields shine... if/when he gets the chance to play. I like the Cowboys a lot this season, but I don't think they would be [I]that[/I] surprising. Mostly because I think it'd be a surprise and a huge disappointment if they didn't win the NFC East. Ditto Cardinals, I don't think they win or are the favorites to win the West, but I don't think it'd be that much of a shocker if they were really good this year. Steelers might actually be a good pick. Damn near everyone has written them off. People still question if Tomlin is a good coach. People doubt if Ben can still be a quality starter. Their huge collapse last year plus the lost to the Browns has most people thinking they are on the decline. Plus they play in the same division as the Browns and Ravens. If they made it to the Super Bowl, that would be a huge shocker if you just go by what the narrative has been basically since last November. I do think the Steelers could be a lot better than people are thinking. The defense will be good/great and they have playmakers all over offense. If Ben is healthy, barring a major major regression (which is possible), I could see them making it to the playoffs. Then there's WFT. They have a good team and Rivera has experience coaching a team to the playoffs and to a Super Bowl. And Rivera, for all his faults, always had the team playing hard. So you know they are going to be competitive almost every week. You know Fitzpatrick will have his games but if they can just make it to the playoffs, who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 My guess would be the Patriots and/or the Chargers in the AFC, and then whoever wins the NFC East between the Cowboys and the WFT. The Cardinals division is brutal, and so is the Steelers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 (edited) Chargers if they can improve that defense would be my pick for AFC. NFC would probably be WFT that division isn’t really hard and they have a good defense. Edited September 8, 2021 by Blackstar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 I picked the Bucs to win but I wouldn't be shocked if it's the WFT. A lot of things have to go right but that defense could be the best in the league and Chase Young could win DPOY and Fitzpatrick might have this one great year like Keenum or Foles had. I would be surprised but not shocked if WFT wins 12 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 I can see the Chargers exploding on to the scene by winning the west, if Herbert takes another step and the defense steps up with the new HC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Saints or Steelers would be my pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notthatbluestuff Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 If Teddy is serviceable, Broncos can ride a tremendous defense and a good ground game far in the postseason. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Patriots could be pretty good if Mac Jones is serviceable and that defense returns to form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iloxygenil Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 I’m on board with the Chargers as a party crasher. I want to believe the Falcons are as well, but having not seen the offensive line do… anything yet, it makes me very hesitant to commit to that. But chargers seem like the real deal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 (edited) WFT was dangerous enough with Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, & the shell of Alex Smith. I think they can be very scary if Fitz plays smart, Gibson takes that next step forward, and they get another pass catcher from Curtis Samuel / Dyami Brown / Adam Humphries to step up as a #3 target. Not all that unrealistic to ask for. Cowboys are also a very sensible pick as their QB probably has the highest ceiling of any of the teams mentioned as qualifiers. The last one I'd consider fairly likely is the Dolphins. We know they have a good head coach and a strong defense. What they lacked was consistency & fire power on offense. Tua is looking good, they've added serious weapons on Waddle & Fuller, and they have a wide variety of versatile role players surrounding those guys. It would really only take Tua taking a legit step forward for this team to be tough to deal with on a weekly basis. I could make arguments for several others, but those are the ones that have a solid blend of QB upside and/or elite defensive support. Edited September 8, 2021 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 How did the 2019 Packers go 13-3, play in the NFCCG, and then get an 8.5 win total in 2020? How did we all not bet the over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trentwannabe Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Chargers and Saints Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awsi Dooger Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 8 hours ago, SkippyX said: How did the 2019 Packers go 13-3, play in the NFCCG, and then get an 8.5 win total in 2020? How did we all not bet the over? There was quite a bit of sentiment and analysis the other way. I didn't agree with it. My argument here and elsewhere was that drafting Jordan Love was exactly the kick in the pants that Aaron Rodgers needed, after 5 consecutive lazy seasons. But this is the type of stuff that was out there: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-win-totals-odds-predictions-best-bets-proven-model-picks-under-9-wins-for-packers/ "The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has crushed human experts on a consistent basis. Since its 2015 inception, the model is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks." "The model says you should go under nine wins for the Green Bay Packers. In fact, after 10,000 simulations, the Packers average 8.1 wins, meaning they fail to meet their total by nearly a full game." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTrav Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 Patriots are a good bet I guess with their coaching, defense and OL. LAC without the incompetency of Lynn are surely going to be a lot better. I'll take those two 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.