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Is the Packers roster top heavy in terms of cap allocation?


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This was a topic that came up in a thread a few days ago about how unbalanced the Packers salary cap is interms of too much cash is allocated to too few top players, and how that might make us less competitive, because I was looking at this same kind of thing a few years ago, I felt it deserved its own thread.

I looked at a number of teams that have been competitive over the last few years, selected by name recognition and also the Vikings…As well as an up and coming team with a rookie QB in the Chargers.

I took the salaries of the top 25 players according to Spotrac and stuck them in a spreadsheet, I’ve put that data at the bottom for those interested. I also looked at the dead cap as well. Once looking at the top 25 earners looked at the top 10 earners, top 5 earners and top 3 earners

Overall summary if you can't be jacked to read it all, the Packers are not a top heavy team. All teams are top heavy!

These are the teams I looked at: Tampa, Seattle, San Fran, LAR, Kansas, Minny and LAC

If we look firstly at the spend of cap on their top 25 earners:
Green Bay 76.04% of cap
Tampa 76.82% of cap
Seattle 69.3% of cap
San Fran 73.19 of cap
LAR 62.68% of cap
Kansas 76.41% of cap
Minny 72.54% of cap
LAC 77.21% of cap

Lowest there is LAR at 62.68% of cap, however when you factor in that their dead cap is 20.9% of their cap on four players, their top 25 earners amount to 81.29% of the cap.

Looking at those number we can see Green Bay fares pretty much along the same lines as these other teams. On average more than 25% of the cap is spent on the remaining 28 players, plus practice squad players and dead cap. Assuming as well that teams use all 100% of their cap, they could be allocating much less that 25% for their remainder of their roster.

When we then look then at the top 10 earners in each of these teams what do we find:
Green Bay 56.01% of cap
Tampa 51.49% of cap
Seattle 50.82% of cap
San Fran 51.25% of cap
LAR 46.76% of cap
Kansas 58.57% of cap
Minny 54.35% of cap
LAC 57.98% of cap

Again LAR is much higher if you count in the dead cap players. And again Green Bay is no outlier here, pretty much falls in line with the rest of the teams.


We then look then at the top 5 earners in each of these teams:
Green Bay 41.72% of cap
Tampa 33.7% of cap
Seattle 39.37% of cap
San Fran 34.69% of cap
LAR 32.01% of cap
Kansas 42.74% of cap
Minny 38.31% of cap
LAC 39.27% of cap

Packers a little higher than the average but not by much.

Finally we look at the top 3 earners in each of these teams:
Green Bay 31.14% of cap
Tampa 22.42% of cap
Seattle 32.08% of cap
San Fran 25.41% of cap
LAR 23.56% of cap
Kansas 32.57% of cap
Minny 30.33% of cap
LAC 27.19% of cap

So overall what you’ll find is that rosters are compiled in the following way:
Bottom 28 players and practice squad guys = approx. 25% (or less) of the cap
Top 25 players = approx. 75%
Top 10 players = approx. 55%
Top 5 players = approx. 38%
Top 3 players = approx. 28%

So in essence your top 3 earners account cap wise the same amount as the bottom 28 players plus practice squad guys.

What I found interesting when doing this is when you get beyond the top ten players in each team the rest of the players are really not well known names. Your guys from 15 to 25 account each about 1.5% of cap to approx. 0.7% of cap and combined these ten players from 15 to 25 account for only 10% of the cap. For all teams we see that this is an elite talent league, where if you are great you get paid and a single team can take on approximately 10 players that will account for about 50% of their cap.

Appendix data:

Packers

Position Cap %

QB          14.54

WR         9.02

OLB        7.58

OT          5.89

OLB        4.69

DT           3.75

FS           3.21

OT          2.6

RB           2.4

OLB        2.33

CB           2.06

DE           2.05

SS           1.83

K             1.7

QB          1.51

WR         1.44

TE           1.26

WR         1.2

CB           1.16

CB           1.15

G             1.12

CB           1.04

OG         0.99

TE           0.81

RT           0.71

Summary            
Top 25 players   76.04% Of cap
Top 10 players   56.01% of cap
Top 5 players     41.72% of cap
Top 3 players     31.14 % of cap

Tampa
Position Cap %

WR         8.78

OLB        7.03

G             6.61

QB          5.79

C             5.49

ILB          4.49

WR         4.23

TE           3.3

DE           3.02

OLB        2.75

DT           2.59

RT           2.03

LT            2

K             1.92

OLB        1.85

RB           1.79

WR         1.7

TE           1.65

DT           1.65

P             1.54

CB           1.51

S              1.43

G             1.31

RB           1.24

DE           1.12

Summary            
Top 25 players   76.82% Of cap
Top 10 players   51.49% of cap
Top 5 players     33.7% of cap
Top 3 players     22.42 % of cap

Seattle
Position Cap %

QB          17.4

ILB          9.32

LT            5.36

WR         4.38

RT           2.91

SS           2.72

K             2.37

G             2.22

TE           2.17

FS           1.97

RB           1.86

DE           1.61

OLB        1.51

RB           1.47

DT           1.45

DT           1.31

P             1.29

CB           1.23

DE           1.22

C             1.09

DE           1.06

FS           0.92

FB           0.92

DE           0.84

CB           0.7

Summary            

Top 25 players   69.3% Of cap
Top 10 players   50.82% of cap
Top 5 players     39.37% of cap
Top 3 players     32.08 % of cap

San Fran
Position Cap %

QB          13.48

DE           6.36

FS           5.57

DE           4.73

DE           4.55

LT            4.18

G             3.36

QB          3.17

RT           3.07

TE           2.78

CB           2.69

OLB        1.92

OLB        1.86

RB           1.84

DT           1.8

DT           1.77

C             1.52

WR         1.45

CB           1.35

K             1.33

FB           1.15

WR         1.07

TE           0.81

CB           0.72

G             0.66

Summary            
Top 25 players   73.19% Of cap
Top 10 players   51.25% of cap
Top 5 players     34.69% of cap
Top 3 players     25.41 % of cap

LAR
Position Cap %

QB          10.69

DT           7.69

CB           5.18

RT           4.45

TE           4

WR         3.14

LT            3.03

OLB        2.94

WR         2.83

DT           2.81

P             2.64

CB           2.55

WR         1.74

DT           1.19

ILB          1.17

RB           0.96

G             0.8

WR         0.68

SS           0.68

RB           0.62

LT            0.6

CB           0.58

C             0.58

WR         0.57

G             0.56

Summary            
Top 25 players   62.68% Of cap
Top 10 players   46.76% of cap
Top 5 players     32.01% of cap
Top 3 players     23.56 % of cap

Kansas
Position Cap %

DE           13.69

FS           10.47

WR         8.41

ILB          5.64

DT           4.53

TE           4.06

QB          3.94

DT           2.92

G             2.52

G             2.39

K             2.09

LT            1.8

CB           1.8

LT            1.75

RB           1.31

DT           1.29

WR         1.13

RT           1.13

CB           0.97

QB          0.86

RB           0.85

LB           0.83

WR         0.72

FS           0.67

SS           0.64

Summary            
Top 25 players   76.41% Of cap
Top 10 players   58.57% of cap
Top 5 players     42.74% of cap
Top 3 players     32.57 % of cap

Minny
Position Cap %

QB          16.55

DE           7.14

ILB          6.64

CB           4.27

RT           3.71

FS           3.68

OLB        3.26

DT           3.2

WR         3.17

RB           2.73

DT           2.67

C             1.88

FB           1.6

WR         1.59

CB           1.46

LT            1.3

DT           1.22

C             1.17

DE           1.07

OLB        0.92

S              0.92

G             0.67

LT            0.6

RB           0.56

CB           0.56

Summary            
Top 25 players   72.54% Of cap
Top 10 players   54.35% of cap
Top 5 players     38.31% of cap
Top 3 players     30.33 % of cap

LAC
Position Cap %

DE           10.82

WR         8.19

WR         8.18

DT           6.21

CB           5.87

RT           5.78

C             3.44

CB           3.34

QB          3.15

RB           3

RT           2.61

TE           2.35

S              2.06

DT           1.62

LT            1.58

ILB          1.54

DT           1.25

ILB          1.22

OLB        0.96

G             0.83

OLB        0.78

CB           0.68

S              0.67

LT            0.56

C             0.52

Summary            
Top 25 players   77.21% Of cap
Top 10 players   57.98% of cap
Top 5 players     39.27% of cap
Top 3 players     27.19 % of cap


Congrats if you read this far!!!


 

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One of the things this indicates to me is how mailable the cap really can be. What a team needs to manage is the per cent of cap for any given year. For example, the contract Mahomes signed and his cap hit in 2022 is 3.91%, making him the 7th paid player on the team. However, the way it is structured, more through guaranteed roster bonus vs a signing bonus, has made the first two years of his deal so friendly that it has enabled other players to be signed. 

I’m more convinced now that you pay Davante what he wants and just manipulate the cap. Great/elite players are so rare you pay them, especially if they have in your building for a number of years. I mean you look at Dhop contract this year is only 6.51% of cap.

Finally, the rate of inflation is so high in the NFL, pre-covid, it was about 8% annually. That what you pay someone today is worth so much less in the future, especially if the early years of the contract have little cap hits.

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19 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

One of the things this indicates to me is how mailable the cap really can be. What a team needs to manage is the per cent of cap for any given year. For example, the contract Mahomes signed and his cap hit in 2022 is 3.91%, making him the 7th paid player on the team. However, the way it is structured, more through guaranteed roster bonus vs a signing bonus, has made the first two years of his deal so friendly that it has enabled other players to be signed. 

I’m more convinced now that you pay Davante what he wants and just manipulate the cap. Great/elite players are so rare you pay them, especially if they have in your building for a number of years. I mean you look at Dhop contract this year is only 6.51% of cap.

Finally, the rate of inflation is so high in the NFL, pre-covid, it was about 8% annually. That what you pay someone today is worth so much less in the future, especially if the early years of the contract have little cap hits.

Mahomes contract is extremely palatable because he had two years left of a rookie contract to spread the bonus over but was otherwise a top of market contract for the years past the first two. 
 

Yes, wait until you find out what the 2023 cap is going to be. The inflation of NFL contracts is just about to recategorized as hyper inflation. That 17th game is more than a 6% increase in revenue. The top third of the players will see over half of that. Legalized gambling is an additional revenue with UNTOLD possibilities. They are trying to rip up TV deals to get more. It’s a great time to secure big deals if you got the guys and the money.

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