Adam Jahns: OK Andy Dalton, Surprise Me

[soulman]

 

Jahns: OK, Andy Dalton, surprise me — show us why the Bears are starting you over Justin Fields

By Adam Jahns Sep 11, 2021 108

Bears offensive coordinator Bill Lazor was asked about Andy Dalton and all the other quarterbacks he has worked with. In Lazor’s long career, those include Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, Nick Foles, Michael Vick, Ryan Tannehill and others.

“I don’t want to compare him, because I hate comparing players, but the things I would say that really stand out about Andy would be his competitiveness and his poise and ability in pressure situations to operate,” Lazor said Wednesday. “I think at the end of some really close games that he’s come back and won in two-minute situations. He just kind of operates the same all the time as far as his calling the plays, operating the offense and being able to play in those pressure situations.

“His competitiveness is definitely special, and hopefully when the real lights are on and we are going on Sunday night that shows up for everybody and it spreads.”

Admittedly, when that was said, I thought to myself in the media room of Halas Hall: “Who knew Andy Dalton was that much like Tom Brady?”

But this is what we call “coachspeak.” Lazor is talking up his quarterback. And really, that’s fine. All coaches do it, especially before the season begins. Having spent three years with Dalton in Cincinnati, Lazor is supposed to know him the best among the Bears coaches.

“I’ve seen his play speed affect the offense,” Lazor said. “I’ve seen his cadence affect the offense, his tempo in and out of the huddle affect the offense. And there’s no doubt that his confidence has affected the offense. In the walk-throughs, we tend to give them really difficult things when it comes to blitzes and situations with the defense. It’s hard to put something up there that he hasn’t faced at some point. Not that we are going to have the same answer for it that he has, but there tends to be very little panic from a guy who’s faced it before and has had success. That’s just kind of what he brings to the table.”

Again, that’s coachspeak.

If you remember, Bears coaches made similar statements about Foles before last season. The offense didn’t improve during it, though. It regressed further with Foles. Nagy handed over play-calling duties to Lazor. Foles suffered an injury, but Mitch Trubisky essentially replaced him for the final seven games, including the playoffs, after he was benched in Week 3.

So here’s where I stand with Lazor, Nagy and Dalton: Surprise me. In fact, surprise everyone in Chicago and across the country who clearly believes Justin Fields is better than Dalton and should be playing for the next step in his development to occur.

What the numbers say

The Bears’ confidence in Dalton hasn’t wavered since he arrived. His consistent play in training camp only emboldened the team’s resolve. But the numbers still show that the offense has a low ceiling with Dalton under center.

When Lazor joined the Bengals coaching staff in 2016, Dalton was coming off the best season of his career. In 2015, Cincinnati went 12-4 and Dalton started 13 of those victories. He posted career bests in passer rating (106.2), QBR (72.5) and adjusted net yards per attempt (8.17).

Since then, Dalton has been a losing quarterback, going 24-40-1 record as a starter, including 4-5 last season with Dallas. There are many reasons teams lose. But that record came with a statistical decline for Dalton. What the Bears have is a quarterback who can’t elevate above the situation around him.

Lazor should know what happened, too. He experienced it firsthand. Ken Zampese took over as Bengals offensive coordinator in 2016 after Hue Jackson left to coach the Browns. Lazor was Cincinnati’s quarterbacks coach in 2016 but replaced Zampese as offensive coordinator in 2017. Zampese was fired after two games that season. Lazor remained in place in 2018.

From Pro Football Reference and rbsdm.com, here’s a look at Dalton featuring advanced measurements — QBR, adjusted net yards per attempt and expected points added per play — that best reflect high-functioning quarterback play. Since Lazor mentioned Dalton’s play in “really close games,” fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives also were included.

Team record in starts	10-3	6-9-1	7-9	5-6	2-11	4-5
Comp. %	66.1	64.7	59.9	61.9	59.5	64.9
Passer rating	106.2	91.8	86.6	89.6	78.3	87.3
QBR	72.5	52.3	44.8	59.4	42.1	52.8
ANY/A	8.17	6.53	5.65	6.05	5.19	5.34
4QC	3	2	3	3	0	2
GWD	3	1	3	4	0	3
EPA/play	0.280	0.132	-0.012	0.129	0.033	0.041

The Bears and Trubisky had to move on from each other after last season. But statistically, Dalton’s 2020 season was worse than Trubisky’s, and it lacked the extra conflict and the extra pressure of being a first-round pick. Each started nine games, and Trubisky finished with a better QBR, ANY/A and EPA/play.

What happens next?

On Aug. 18, Dalton delivered the most viral quote from training camp. What he said might have been taken out of context, but it still produced a Mike Glennon-like vibe. He was asked how he works around the excitement that Fields has produced.

“You can’t focus on that,” he said. “If you focus on that, then that’s going to beat you down, and so I know who I am, I know who I was created to be, I know where my identity lies. And so do I want the fans behind me and this team and all that kind of stuff? Yes. Do I want them behind Justin? Absolutely, I do.

“But that’s not my focus. I can’t focus on all that right now. Like I’ve said before, Justin is going to have his time and Justin is going to have a great career, but right now, it’s my time and so my focus is on being the best player I can be for this team and do everything I can to help this team win.”

Until then, training camp lacked the awkwardness that the Glennon-Trubisky dynamic had from the outset in 2017. But Dalton’s “right now, it’s my time” message felt similar to Glennon’s “right now, this is my year” quote from May 23, 2017.

Dalton does seem built better to handle the pressure and the scrutiny. His experience as an actual starting quarterback distinguishes him from Glennon. The Bears should find confidence in Dalton’s experiences. But there are limits to it. Outsiders shouldn’t have more accurate expectations than those formulating the game plans and calling the plays.

I’m also fairly confident that Dalton has never experienced what’s ahead for him if he doesn’t play well in Los Angeles against the Rams and especially in Week 2 against the Bengals at Soldier Field.

Dalton doesn’t have the No. 4-selling jersey in the NFL right now. Justin Fields does. Playing quarterback for the Chicago Bears is a different animal — one that will chew you up, swallow you, then spit you out before doing it again. It’ll be surprising if Dalton actually handles it well.

[MonserinNC]

I just dont have many thoughts on Dalton.....we know he is a place holder.....no need to even really talk about him.....also this game we already know is a L......im just watching because I love the Bears and prime time football haha

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

Hey, who knows, maybe Nagy's going to start Fields and all this was just window dressing and he'll actually surprise a defense.

 

(I did predict the Parkey doink the morning of)

[Madmike90]

I am not even sure we need Dalton to surprise us...you can win with a middle of the road game manager at QB...what we need is for Nagy to surprise us and stay dedicated to running the ball even if we do fall behind or it isn't instantly working for us...as soon as we get unbalanced the game is over.

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

I just dont have many thoughts on Dalton.....we know he is a place holder.....no need to even really talk about him.....also this game we already know is a L......im just watching because I love the Bears and prime time football haha

I can't even say for sure that the game is an automatic L. But, still, you're right...the article is written from a weird perspective. None of Dalton being (for now) QB#1 is about Dalton. It's all about Fields. 

34 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

Hey, who knows, maybe Nagy's going to start Fields and all this was just window dressing and he'll actually surprise a defense.

That would be hilarious. And wonderful. 

34 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

(I did predict the Parkey doink the morning of)

You really did, didn't you? 😲

[soulman]

2 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I can't even say for sure that the game is an automatic L. But, still, you're right...the article is written from a weird perspective. None of Dalton being (for now) QB#1 is about Dalton. It's all about Fields. 

Jahns is being a but snarky with his title then goes on to say just why he doesn't expect Dalton to impress.  The real problem is we've all been down this road before.  This is our 5th consecutive season of seeing a vet place holder or backup in competition with our supposed #1 QB and before long all of the vets fell by the wayside and Mitch started.

It seems that the only questions this year are 1) When will Fields start, and 2) Why isn't it now.  It really doesn't matter that during the preseason Fields proved himself to be a better option and ready to play.  That's not "The Plan" dammit and by dingies they're are gonna stick to "The Plan" no matter what because they promised Dalton he'd start.

Promises made, promises kept.  🤣

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

Promises made, promises kept.  🤣

Except when they don't keep promises...then it's fine. 

My favorite was, "We're going to run the ball. I'm not an idiot." 

[soulman]

Promises kept.  Results as expected.

[BACK2MACKSACK]

Dalton seems like an underrated pickup this offseason. He has a good strong spiral and seems to stand strong in the pocket. It's just the first game in a new offensive system and he looks better than Trubisky and Foles were.

[beardown3231]

37 minutes ago, BACK2MACKSACK said:

Dalton seems like an underrated pickup this offseason. He has a good strong spiral and seems to stand strong in the pocket. It's just the first game in a new offensive system and he looks better than Trubisky and Foles were.

😅😂😆

huh

[Bigbear72]

1 hour ago, BACK2MACKSACK said:

Dalton seems like an underrated pickup this offseason. He has a good strong spiral and seems to stand strong in the pocket. It's just the first game in a new offensive system and he looks better than Trubisky and Foles were.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or not. Nothing about his performance screams "good pickup" to me. Maybe it was "just a bad game" but nothing he did do anything to inspire hope.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, BACK2MACKSACK said:

Dalton seems like an underrated pickup this offseason. He has a good strong spiral and seems to stand strong in the pocket. It's just the first game in a new offensive system and he looks better than Trubisky and Foles were.

Looks can be deceiving.

Sorry but I can't look at a scoring drive that ends in yet another pick in the end zone as any kind of an improvement over Mitch who had a habit of doing much the same.  Dalton had 38 pass attempts for 206 yards.....5.42 YPA.  That might look good if it was the run game but it's the same old dink and dunk WCO Nagy has always tried to get to work and it doesn't work.  Not with any of the 4 vet QBs he's had trying to make it work.

Andy Dalton is about as average as an NFL starter as you're likely to find.  With a decent offense on a good day he'll win some games.  But this is not a decent offense and it hasn't really ever been one under Matt Nagy.  His schemes and his play calling simply don't work or at least not against better defenses with knowledgeable DCs.  Have we ever won a season opener under Matt Nagy?  We got blown up again on national TV.

There is nothing that has happened over the course of the past three seasons to show that there has been any real progress under Nagy's coaching and quite frankly under Pace's personnel management either.  Aside from a couple of blockbuster pickups in FA and the draft he's also shot himself in the foot far too often which is why we typically end up with half a team and a .500 record.  It's all that we've earned.

Nagy was Pace's "pick to click" and 5 QB's not including Fields were also Pace's pickups or draftees and none of them have been able to operate Matt Nagy's offense successfully.  What does that tell us?  You can't keep hiring and firing the "bus drivers" of Nagy's "bus" without finally taking the bus apart to find that it never will drive right.  It's time to face reality.  He's failed and should not be the guy to coach Justin Fields.

Not unless we want to watch one more rookie QB fail to reach his potential driving a busted *** bus.

[HuskieBear]

5 hours ago, soulman said:

Looks can be deceiving.

Sorry but I can't look at a scoring drive that ends in yet another pick in the end zone as any kind of an improvement over Mitch who had a habit of doing much the same.  Dalton had 38 pass attempts for 206 yards.....5.42 YPA.  That might look good if it was the run game but it's the same old dink and dunk WCO Nagy has always tried to get to work and it doesn't work.  Not with any of the 4 vet QBs he's had trying to make it work.

Andy Dalton is about as average as an NFL starter as you're likely to find.  With a decent offense on a good day he'll win some games.  But this is not a decent offense and it hasn't really ever been one under Matt Nagy.  His schemes and his play calling simply don't work or at least not against better defenses with knowledgeable DCs.  Have we ever won a season opener under Matt Nagy?  We got blown up again on national TV.

There is nothing that has happened over the course of the past three seasons to show that there has been any real progress under Nagy's coaching and quite frankly under Pace's personnel management either.  Aside from a couple of blockbuster pickups in FA and the draft he's also shot himself in the foot far too often which is why we typically end up with half a team and a .500 record.  It's all that we've earned.

Nagy was Pace's "pick to click" and 5 QB's not including Fields were also Pace's pickups or draftees and none of them have been able to operate Matt Nagy's offense successfully.  What does that tell us?  You can't keep hiring and firing the "bus drivers" of Nagy's "bus" without finally taking the bus apart to find that it never will drive right.  It's time to face reality.  He's failed and should not be the guy to coach Justin Fields.

Not unless we want to watch one more rookie QB fail to reach his potential driving a busted *** bus.

i know that the rams like to keep things short and not get beat deep, but only 2 passes went more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the EZ int and that desperation 4th and 15 throw. we could have just kept mitch for that kind of production

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, HuskieBear said:

i know that the rams like to keep things short and not get beat deep, but only 2 passes went more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the EZ int and that desperation 4th and 15 throw. we could have just kept mitch for that kind of production

Fields could've done what Dalton did last night, same with Trubisky

[blkwdw13]

12 hours ago, soulman said:

Looks can be deceiving.

Sorry but I can't look at a scoring drive that ends in yet another pick in the end zone as any kind of an improvement over Mitch who had a habit of doing much the same.  Dalton had 38 pass attempts for 206 yards.....5.42 YPA.  That might look good if it was the run game but it's the same old dink and dunk WCO Nagy has always tried to get to work and it doesn't work.  Not with any of the 4 vet QBs he's had trying to make it work.

Andy Dalton is about as average as an NFL starter as you're likely to find.  With a decent offense on a good day he'll win some games.  But this is not a decent offense and it hasn't really ever been one under Matt Nagy.  His schemes and his play calling simply don't work or at least not against better defenses with knowledgeable DCs.  Have we ever won a season opener under Matt Nagy?  We got blown up again on national TV.

There is nothing that has happened over the course of the past three seasons to show that there has been any real progress under Nagy's coaching and quite frankly under Pace's personnel management either.  Aside from a couple of blockbuster pickups in FA and the draft he's also shot himself in the foot far too often which is why we typically end up with half a team and a .500 record.  It's all that we've earned.

Nagy was Pace's "pick to click" and 5 QB's not including Fields were also Pace's pickups or draftees and none of them have been able to operate Matt Nagy's offense successfully.  What does that tell us?  You can't keep hiring and firing the "bus drivers" of Nagy's "bus" without finally taking the bus apart to find that it never will drive right.  It's time to face reality.  He's failed and should not be the guy to coach Justin Fields.

Not unless we want to watch one more rookie QB fail to reach his potential driving a busted *** bus.

As for what I bolded this is what I wrote in the game day thread.

I don't think this game is going to go very well, I think it is actually going to be pretty ugly. In Nagy's three seasons games that have had a long break before them (opening week, after bye, week after a Thursday game) he has a record of 2-7. Whereas going into short weeks (the week of a Thursday game) he has a record of 3-0. This to go along with the Rams are a good team and the Bears have proven anything but that.

If I had to guess on a score and I usually don't I'll go with 30ish to 10ish and less than 300 total yards of offense.