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Zach Wilson decision looks bad now and Darnold looks like a gamer


Vladimir L

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Imagine:

1. Having an extremely mediocre first 2 years in college, followed by:

2. A year of immense success against a bunch of 2 and 3 star nobodies, in a Covid year without any type of fan factor/homefield advantage, followed by: 

3. The Jets drafting you (see: Darnold)

...and here we are

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I didn't think Wilson looked that bad in Week 1.  Made some nice throws and escaped the pocket well at times.  Unfortunately his receivers were mostly blanketed and his OL got destroyed.  Yes he had a couple of poor plays but otherwise I didn't think he looked like a disaster.  Just a rookie QB on a horrible team.

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2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Imagine:

1. Having an extremely mediocre first 2 years in college, followed by:

2. A year of immense success against a bunch of 2 and 3 star nobodies, in a Covid year without any type of fan factor/homefield advantage, followed by: 

3. The Jets drafting you (see: Darnold)

...and here we are

all good points. I believe the crowd noise is a bigger factor for some young QBs than many believe.

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3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Let's be real though, Zach Wilson looks a lot like Josh Rosen right now as opposed to Aikman or Smith. Nothing is working for him, he's dead in the water right now unless the playcalling is REALLY scaled back.

At this point, I can't say Wilson is much better than Davis Mills, and Mills is a disaster.

Oof don't know about that. Alex Smith didn't throw a TD until the final game of the 2005 season against your Texans. That was probably the worst rookie QB season I've ever seen. One touchdown and eleven interceptions in seven starts/nine games played. That roster was garbage, but no way would have cut it today even with a bad squad. Anyway, hopefully it gets better for Wilson. I do remember Alex in an interview said that after a while he loved road games more than home games since he didn't have to deal with he fanbase on his back. 

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Just now, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Oof don't know about that. Alex Smith didn't throw a TD until the final game of the 2005 season against your Texans.

This is fair, I don't remember much about Smith's rookie season... I forgot how bad it actually was, I do remember how he threw a TD in the Reggie Bush bowl...

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2 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Oof don't know about that. Alex Smith didn't throw a TD until the final game of the 2005 season against your Texans. That was probably the worst rookie QB season I've ever seen. One touchdown and eleven interceptions in seven starts/nine games played. That roster was garbage, but no way would have cut it today even with a bad squad. Anyway, hopefully it gets better for Wilson. I do remember Alex in an interview said that after a while he loved road games more than home games since he didn't have to deal with he fanbase on his back. 

I don't want the topic to go off topic, but no rookie nowadays would have made as many starts as Smith did playing THAT bad.

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14 hours ago, Mr Raider said:

As far as Darnold, it was a weird situation overall. I understood why the Jets made the decision to move on. He had been there 3 years, he obviously hadn't put up great production, they hadn't won many games, and they ended up with a top 2 pick and there is never a guarantee that you will be picking that high again in the near future. Especially during a draft when most viewed it as a strong QB draft with a generational talent, and 3 other consensus first round caliber QBs. Regardless of the surrounding talent, the coaching, the ability for the front office to draft and sign talented players that fit the coaching staffs scheme and/or the staffs ability to develop talent and adapt their scheme to get the most out of their players, at the end of the day it's almost impossible for a general manager to put his job on the line and tie it to a QB you didn't draft. Especially when that QB you didn't draft has had a lot of lows, had some injuries, and has yet to produce a single good season. 

I don't blame the GM for not saying yeah Sam Darnold was a former high pick and he's had bad coaching, virtually zero to work with on offense, and we just bottomed out into a top 2 pick but I am going to bet my career on his ability to become what he once was viewed to be. Especially when the GM if he is being honest with himself knows that for that to happen it would have to come from Darnold suddenly being able to make a team nowhere near ready to compete, with a terrible set of weapons, a bad OL, and yet again a new scheme to learn. Darnold was never going to find success in New York. It was time for both of them to start fresh. 

All of that being said, Darnold was doomed from the start IMO. He came out of college off a 2016 season that had everyone buzzing about his junior season and what he would do and how he would develop. He was being talked about as the next elite QB prospect. And he comes out in 2017 and he plays well. But the team wasn't great. And he didn't take the big leap everyone expected. His accuracy took a small step back, his decision making wasn't as good, he had some trouble turning the ball over too much, etc. He was clearly very talented. He checked all the boxes from a physical standpoint. But he only had 2 seasons of starting experience, and he regressed some from year 1 to year 2 starting. But even during that he still was putting some terrific stuff on tape. Very strong arm. Big, strong kid. Pretty athletic for a QB. Could throw a beautiful deep ball. Had a little bit of that gunslinger in him that can be captivating for fans and NFL scouts alike because the highs are so dang high. 

Some thought Darnold would still end up being the #1 pick, but he ultimately went to the Jets. And I for the life of me, couldn't figure out how I felt about Darnold. There were some things I loved, all the physical skills, the ability to make throws others just cant, his athleticism, but there were some things that made me absolutely nervous about the idea of drafting him if I were attaching my job to his success. The regression, the fearlessness too often turned into a fault, turnover prone, only 2 years of starting experience. 

I ultimately landed on him before the draft much the same way I did about Wilson. If you could just give me the prospect and I had a team that had at bare minimum a good OL, and one good, dependable weapon, and I had a QB good enough to buy me some time to let him sit and develop some I would absolutely take the gamble on his upside. But in todays NFL where QB prospects fly off the board and to get one of Darnolds caliber you have to draft top 5 and what comes with that typically being a very bad team that doesn't have much talent, likely has instability from the top down with a coach either on the hot seat or a coach entering his first or second year with the team, and a ton of pressure to play the franchise saving, face of the franchise top 5 pick QB? It just makes the outlook bleak. It makes my comfort level and belief in them hitting their potential much lower. 

There are certain prospects that have strong skills in specific areas that do absolutely make me more confident in drafting them even if my roster is lacking talent, new unproven coach etc. Guys like Luck, Manning, Lawrence, I also personally had Watson and Stafford as those type of prospect before they were drafted. So it's not that I just only like a QBs potential to be great if they are a high pick and manage to go to a decent situation. It's based on how each individual prospect is constructed strengths and weaknesses wise when I evaluate them.

When Darnold was absolutely ruined and there was zero chance of Darnold ever being the guy he was drafted to be WITH THE JETS wss when they hired Gase. A lot of highly drafted QBs go to a situation where they have to go through a coaching change and thus have to learn an entirely new offense and system. A lot of guys are drafted highly to teams that have a coach that is already on the hot seat which is part of why they ended up being able to pick that QB, or the coach at the start of their career is kind of a mid level coach that was hired to just kind of stabilize the franchise and set the ground work towards just being competitive before they try to improve and get the coach that can take them over the hump at a certain point. Whatever. But when you invest so highly in a QB, what you can't afford to do is give them a coach that is basically already gone for their rookie season, have them try and transition to the NFL game and all those challenges, be given the task of learning this offense build chemistry with all these teammates that in theory should fit this offense. Then in their second year give them a new HC, a new offense, have a huge overhaul on the roster offensively to get rid of the players that fit the old system and are bad fits in the new system, and say we now need you to forget everything you were taught last year about what we are looking for, all the calls, what that offense is looking for against each defensive look, etc. Forget everything your last coaches told you about this or that with your mechanics. We want you to do this and this. All of those things that come with it. That CAN all be overcome and the QB can still reach their potential. One coaching change early in their career isn't a career ender, but what I will always maintain when trying to develop your young potential franchise QB is that you can't make that change and all that comes with it AND BE WRONG. Whoever you hire early in their career has to work out. They don't have to be super bowl winning good, but they have to be a quality coach capable of leading a team to successful seasons. 

Adam Gase has never been, nor will he ever be IMO a guy that is capable of being that guy. I thought for years he was holding Tannehill back. I liked him quite a bit coming out, and he wasn't perfect in Miami, but it was so easy to see throughout the entire offense and the entire team it wasn't a team being capped by a QB that was too bad to have any success with. It was a QB and franchise being held back by a guy that was so far over his head. Somehow he managed to convince multiple teams that his work as the coordinator for Peyton freaking Manning led teams had anything to do with him. Like one of the things so many loved Peyton for was him essentially being his own offensive coordinator and play caller lol. 

When they hired Gase that was the moment it was decided that Darnold would never be who the Jets drafted him to be. Gase was a net negative in almost every aspect. Play calling? Bad. Established offensive identity? Regardless of the teams or players he wasn't a coach that had a system that always managed to have a great rushing attack like Shannahan or Kubiak, he wasn't a guy that had a system that allowed mid tier QBs to have easy success with well designed plays and concepts. He consistently would fluctuate from not even attempting to run the ball. He went from being top 12 in the league in Chicago in rushing attempts, yards, and rushing TDs to bringing that to Miami his first season where despite being 18th in attempts they were 9th in rushing yards and 8th in YPA, only to follow it up the next year saying hey we had to bring Cutler out of retirement to start for us so we are going to be an air raid offense and never run the ball (32nd in attempts, 29th in yards, 31 in rushing TDs) despite the fact that Cutler is our starter for 3/4 of the season. Which led to being a passing offense that was 4th in attempts yet only 18th in yards, 15th in passing TDs and 30th in INTs. And that was a constant theme for Gase. He never had an offensive identity despite being an "offensive mind" and he never had a successful offense that wasnt led by HOF QB Peyton Manning. 

I mean seriously, if you are a GM and you are attempting to get the most out of your top 5 pick at QB and you are tasked with supplying the coaching staff with talent that fits well inside his scheme and compliment the QB and one another to have success, how do you even do that with Gase? Is he committed to the run? Well it varies. He was most committed to it when he had his most successful QB which he never took as a sign to help make his less talented QBs better. How about the passing game? Is there something specific he excels in there to make his players better? Nope his teams are almost always basically bottom 20 in everything from points, turnovers, yards, yards per attempt, etc. 

I know I am not treading new ground here when talking about how bad Adam Gase has been as a head coach. But my main point is that hiring him to be your HC would be bad for any franchise IMO. But there probably wasn't a team that would be hurt worse by it than the Jets. A team hiring him with an established mid tier QB? Not going to find success. A team with a super young QB trying to reach his potential? Ylu are guaranteeing that he absolutely doesn't. 

So to this day I still don't really know what to make of Darnold. I think like 80% or more of QBs being drafted into his situation would have had similar levels of success. Very few QBs ever could be drafted into a team with the talent he had surrounding him, being coached by the coaches he had around him, with all the expectations that come with being a top 5 pick in NYC, etc could come in and turn that team around. They failed him at basically every turn. And they have, at least for his rookie season, made a lot of the same mistakes with Wilson who has a lot of similar question marks as Darnold coming out. I like Saleh WAY more than Gase. But I'm not sure how much he is going to help the young QB out development wise. I believe the culture and leadership will be better, and that absolutely isn't nothing. 

In terms of Darnold now in Carolina, i am legitimately fascinated by it. I'm not sure I have any idea how much the damage already done in his development can be overcome by putting him in a better situation in terms of talent and coaching. It obviously will help. But it's an interesting question to wonder how much of it is irreversible. How much of what his ceiling was coming out is permanently gone? Obviously there have been QBs that turn it around with a change in scenery. But it isn't the majority. So I'm mixed on it. I think we have so far, and will only see more of a Sam Darnold that is significantly better than in New York. I think the upgrade in terms of the talent around him on offense is massive. CMC is about as good a safety blanket you could ask for. Anderson is NY was probably Darnolds best weapon there and now he is in Carolina and looked better than ever last season so he clearly benefited in being an offensive system that isn't designed by a terrible coach. But they also have Moore on the opposite side that has produced ridiculously well his whole career regardless of who was throwing it to him. The Carolina offense wasn't good last season, but even with how they finished I feel like Rhule was better about having some identity than Gase ever wise, while having a QB that you could tell seemed to limit what he was able to call and with their elite running back in all aspects hurt. 

Do I think Darnold ever becomes an elite QB? No. I think he will always be a gunslinger and turn the ball over a little too much for what I want in my QB. That ship has probably sailed, if it was ever anything more than a mirage to start with. Do I think Darnold can clearly show that he was held back by an awful situation and become a QB a team can win a lot of games with? I absolutely do. We don't know if Carolina has the man that can tske them all the way at HC. But they clearly have a coach and front office more capable of putting the right pieces around him and design a scheme to fit those pieces strengths more than he ever had with the Jets. I think Darnold has the tools to be Tannehill volume 2. I imagine thats best case. At worst he's an improvement over Jets Darnold and can be a league average or slightly below average starting QB or a great backup. And it's one of the things I am most interesting in watching as the season progresses. 

I’m proud to say that I read the entire thing. Thanks for taking the time to write it.

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3 hours ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

I didn't even know the Jets didn't even sign a long time veteran to be on the roster for Wilson to be around. Seems like one of those old-school approaches that still warrants doing today. 

It absolutely does. Having a veteran QB around to help a younger guy on the mental side of things (even things like prep throughout the week) seems like a no-brainer with a young QB, especially a rookie QB.

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3 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Imagine:

1. Having an extremely mediocre first 2 years in college, followed by:

2. A year of immense success against a bunch of 2 and 3 star nobodies, in a Covid year without any type of fan factor/homefield advantage, followed by: 

3. The Jets drafting you (see: Darnold)

...and here we are

Been saying it. 

BYU had a cupcake schedule last year and the one "good" team they played....Coastal Carolina FFS...made him look painfully average. 

Nothing against the kid, I certainly wish him the best, but he's a product of a hype train that ignored all context in favor of box score scouting and subpar opposition. 

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