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Zach Wilson decision looks bad now and Darnold looks like a gamer


Vladimir L

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1 minute ago, Apparition said:

Exactly. The kind of guy you put in as a caretaker while you rebuild your roster, instead of throwing a kid into the fire who might end up permanently wrecked by the experience.

Or you learn by getting reps and game experience. Very few sit rookie QBs. 

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One has Joe Brady, the master of the greatest college offense of all time, Top 3 RB, and two solid starting WR’s. 

The other has the Jets….

I firmly believe almost any QB would look amazing on the Panthers. I mean, Teddy is gonna Teddy. He’ll come down to earth with Denver soon. 

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55 minutes ago, NYJets4716 said:

Or you learn by getting reps and game experience. Very few sit rookie QBs. 

And how many wind up busting when not surrounded by talent/organizations? 

Carr had a veteran O-line, decent RBs in McFadden and Murray, James Jones, Matt Schaub, etc. The team was bad and poorly coached, but he had a support cast to grow into as the roster improved. 

Herbert had Ekeler, Allen, Tyrod Taylor.

Mahomes had Alex Smith and the Chiefs and great coaching. And he sat.

Wilson had Lynch, Baldwin, Flynn, Tate and great coaching. 

Lance is sitting and TBD. 

Murray had Fitz and Drake and Hundley (who isn't particularly good, but has been around good QBs). 

Goff had Keenum and Todd Gurley, almost busted, then found footing with Woods and McVay. Middling results.

Rodgers sat. 

Cousins sat. 

Stafford had Culpepper, Stanton, and Calvin along with a lost season between a rough rookie year and success. 

Dalton had Gradkowski and Benson to lean on, and a pretty decent roster overall. 

Lamar Jackson sat a bit, was surrounded by vets, and plays for one of the most consistent franchises in the NFL. 

Roethlisberger, same. 

Baker? Taylor and Stanton and Landry. 

Burrow didn't have much, and is sort of TBD, but it's hard to say he's been successful yet. 

Darnold got ruined and traded. Maybe he fully rebounds? 

Brady? Sat. Vets. Great coaching. 

Ryan? Vets. Good team. Ok coaching. 

Winston? Meh coaching. Few solid vets for support. Didn't flop, but wasn't very good and got shipped off. Results TBD. 

Watson? Had some vets. Not a very good team though, so here's the first outlier. A guy considered as one of the 5 best in the league when he's playing. 

I won't bother going through Tannehill's struggles, Wentz being sort of busty, the endless Jacksonville issues, Josh Allen's slow growth into a star QB, Dak walking into the team built for a run with Romo, etc. because I think the point is clear:

A few of the best sat. The guys who started as rookies and didn't flame out (or nearly do so) had solid vets around them and typically played for good teams. The QBs who nearly busted or did bust have typically played for bad teams without a solid veteran presence. 

Rookie QB + bad roster + starting early hasn't often = "reps and game experience" + success. It's typically ended with getting cut or traded to a team not anticipating starting them, but, conversely, sitting them. 

Denver has tried and failed numerous times at it. The Jets. The Giants are seeing it happen. The Jags watched it happen a few times. The Browns. Notice a trend? I sure do...

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4 hours ago, Apparition said:

I wonder what the collective track record is like for QBs who end up picked in the top-5 or top-10 after quickly shooting up draft boards in their last year of college the way Wilson did. 

Steve McNair had a crazy year in 1994 at Alcorn State putting him in the conversation for the Heisman. So that worked out, but he wasn't thrown to the wolves with the Oilers right away. 

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Just now, NYJets4716 said:

Or you learn by getting reps and game experience. Very few sit rookie QBs. 

Getting experience and benefiting from that experience are two different things. He could end up coming out the other end tempered by fire. But I think becoming a shellshocked mess is far more likely, given what's around him. 

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With young quarterbacks taken high in the draft, a lot more chatter is heard along the lines of "BUT HE'S ON HIS ROOKIE DEAL!!! GOTTA PLAY HIM NOW!!!"

Which is funny to me how things have changed. Still don't think you can just treat an NFL team like it's a hedge fund or your calculus homework. 

Anyway, OldManYellsAtCloud.jpg

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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2 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

With young quarterbacks taken high in the draft, a lot more chatter is heard along the lines of "BUT HE'S ON HIS ROOKIE DEAL!!! GOTTA PLAY HIM NOW!!!"

Which is funny to me how things have changed. Still don't think you can just treat an NFL team like it's a hedge fund or your calculus homework. 

Anyway, OldManYellsAtCloud.jpg

As much as I start to hate some of that stuff and was just whining about it in my last post, when you're paying 45$ million a year after for that position, it has to start to matter. 

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1 minute ago, Apparition said:

What rookie is being paid $45 million a year?

None, I said when you're (sometimes) paying them 45$ million a year after their rookie deals, I just worded it poorly but figured given the discussion it would be obvious?

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22 hours ago, Vladimir L said:

Yes it’s early but rookie qb in modern game play well early. 
 

Darnold never looked this bad and imagine what the Jets could have built around him if they traded down.  As a Washington fan I wanted him on our team low risk high reward trade. 

Sam Darnold has CMac, Robby, DJ Moore, Terrence Marshall, and Joe Brady calling the plays. 

Zach Wilson has Ty Johnson, Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, and Mike LaFleur calling the plays. 

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1 hour ago, Apparition said:

Exactly. The kind of guy you put in as a caretaker while you rebuild your roster, instead of throwing a kid into the fire who might end up permanently wrecked by the experience.

There's no easy answer to this but I've gotten far more inclined over the years to believe that the wheat separates from the chaff with the kids playing early. But there's obviously giant amounts of gray area still and when it comes to the Jets then, yeah idk

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19 minutes ago, Apparition said:

Getting experience and benefiting from that experience are two different things. He could end up coming out the other end tempered by fire. But I think becoming a shellshocked mess is far more likely, given what's around him. 

For Zach Wilson I agree. He played at BYU where he was an okay prospect his first two seasons and then blew up as a junior. But in his final season there he never really dealt with a ton of media hype/expectation, had a very good college team around him, and hardly faced any adversity. The NY media is ruthless and he's playing on a team with a limited running game, a rookie head coach, and a rookie play caller. 

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1 minute ago, Norm said:

There's no easy answer to this but I've gotten far more inclined over the years to believe that the wheat separates from the chaff with the kids playing early. But there's obviously giant amounts of gray area still and when it comes to the Jets then, yeah idk

The thing about the Jets is that it wasn't like they brought in a veteran for Wilson to compete with/learn from, and then decided he was ready to start based on that competition. They skipped that phase of it entirely. Even though he was visibly struggling in camp.

I don't get it. There's differing opinions on how to handle QB development and I get that. But how do you not at least have that backstop in place?

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