How Do You Divide the Blame for Broncos' Current Sorry State?

[BroncosFan2010]

I forgot that NO was playing so well, that probably negates the idea of Brees.

But I do like Broncofan's idea of Tannenhill. He and Teddy are my top 'buy low' guys for this team. I would honestly prefer either to dealing up for Rosen/Darnold and paying the RGIII price.

I really wish Kelly wasn't hurt. He was a knucklehead at times, but plays with a swag and winning demeanor that, while backfiring at times, is more of a plus than a negative. Lynch has zero on field presence. And while some QB's can get away with that, his seems to be more 'aw shucks' than 'silent killer'. Kelly has similar physical tools to Lynch outside height as well. He just really intrigues me. Such a bummer we likely don't get to see him.

[jsthomp2007]

I think to get a top tier QB, I could easily see Von restructuring....if he really wants to win.  Also, what kind of money does CJ command?  I love CJ, but I think the Broncos overpaid him...how much cap space does it take to ax him?  

I think there are some moves to clear cap space next season if the Broncos went with Brees or Alex Smith...odd to think Alex is a top tier guy.  But, if he gets ousted for the Mahommes, I want Alex in Denver for vengeance on the Chiefs...especially since the Broncos D is better than the Chiefs, I would think Alex wouldn't have to do as much...he is true game manager, who can take over if need be.   

[champ11]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21251222/the-great-debate-buffalo-bills-quarterback-tyrod-taylor

 

Mina Kimes is fantastic 

[broncofan48]

8 minutes ago, champ11 said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21251222/the-great-debate-buffalo-bills-quarterback-tyrod-taylor

 

Mina Kimes is fantastic 

Honestly the more I've thought about it, the perfect offseason is if Denver can sign Tyrod, draft an impact player early in the draft and find a way to shore up the RT position.  Try to compete while this defense is still elite

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I forgot that NO was playing so well, that probably negates the idea of Brees.

But I do like Broncofan's idea of Tannenhill. He and Teddy are my top 'buy low' guys for this team. I would honestly prefer either to dealing up for Rosen/Darnold and paying the RGIII price.

I really wish Kelly wasn't hurt. He was a knucklehead at times, but plays with a swag and winning demeanor that, while backfiring at times, is more of a plus than a negative. Lynch has zero on field presence. And while some QB's can get away with that, his seems to be more 'aw shucks' than 'silent killer'. Kelly has similar physical tools to Lynch outside height as well. He just really intrigues me. Such a bummer we likely don't get to see him.

Taylor (if we can get him at 10M instead of 16M, albeit likely at the cost of a 3rd round pick), Tannehill and even Bridgewater are all long-term placeholder options for 2018 with very little long-term risk that would allow us to compete with our win-now elite D immediately (and all offer the option to consider them for long-term after 2018, but don't have to commit the franchise long-term, either).   That's the key here.  Darnold and Rosen would cost the farm, and we forget that for most rookie QB's, the first season is a throwaway.   Our D isn't really built to let that happen, the window to win is now.  If we start dismantling the team for 2019+, then fine, take a rookie.  But we are dreaming if we think a rookie helps us win in 2018.  For every Watson-like season, there's 10 rookie seasons where guys struggle - RG3 and Big Ben were the last one ppl pointed to IIRC.

Luck will command a ransom - and trading for 2017 is not happening - why?  Well, we take on half of his 2017 salary, too.  20M is tough enough to fit in for 2018, but adding half of this year's salary for 2017-2018, for a 2017 stash?   And having to pay a ransom to boot?  Not happening, guys.  And again, Elway doesn't do restructures - he never robs the future heavily to try and win now - the only time he did so was with Peyton, where the restructure only kicked in if we made it to the AFCG & won (2m pay cut restored) and same for SB50 (another 2M).   Elway just doesn't go the DAL/MIA way and punt today's problems to future years.   Frankly, given the problems our team faces in our overall roster construction, this isn't the time to start, either.

Everyone wants to hear there's an easy solution - the reality is if it was easy, Elway would have found a way already.   The same obstacles that prevented him from getting a Wentz/Goff in 2016 are going to be there for the top 2 in 2018 - we will have a better 1st, but at least 4 teams will have us heavily outgunned in draft capital, and need QB just as much (or think they do, anyways).    We don't have the cap space nor do we have an attractive team to be the 1st landing spot for the top FA like Cousins (add MIA to the mix, given their QB situation and their willingness to restructure and go into future cap hell).    And if we really want to try and win now with this D - well, it's guys like Taylor (who BUF could always reconsider, but that ESPN piece and BUF fans like @marshawn lynch who know that team inside and out all confirm at the very least he's in play), Tannehill, and yes, Bridgewater, where we likely have to set our sights.  

Honestly, given how badly our QB play is this year, and how badly our play was in 2015 when we won, we are dying of thirst in the desert...and waiting for someone to find us a bottle of champagne, and in some cases, willing to sell a kidney for a half-opened bottle that may or may not be OK (Luck).   While passing up chances at getting bottles of water without paying a ransom for it.    A league-average QB would have us as a legit AFCW and SB contender, provided we address RT and ILB.   Our cap budget and draft resources say that's also the right plan...and rookies take time.   It's not sexy, but sometimes getting the functional solution is better than going for name value alone, when name value costs way too much for our team needs and budget.  

 

EDIT:  Luck just went on IR....so that in-season talk ends.

[7DnBrnc53]

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BTW, while I don't see us being able to compete for Cousins or Alex Smith, and a trade for Tyrod Taylor, while desirable, would mean a lot of pieces would have to fall the right way.  And in the last case, BUF could change direction and keep him.  Draft-wise, unless we fall well below our 7-9/6-10 worst case scenario, it seems that getting a Darnold/Rosen isn't happening, given how many teams have more draft capital than we do, both in terms of extra picks and having an earlier 1st (which makes it hard to make up ground, esp. when you add the extra ammo QB-needy teams have over us).  Stafford is locked up, and I covered why Brees staying in NO seems more and more likely.

So, looking at 2018 more, one more name as a 1-2 year stopgap - Mia's Ryan Tannehill.  He's not a trade candidate - more likely to be released.  Why?   Well, 3 reasons:

1.  MIA and Gase could make a huge case to go after Cousins in FA.   They only have 18M in 2018 cap space, but unlike Elway, they're willing to sacrifice the future, and restructure contracts - they can do it with Suh, and add 11M+.   Then they get another 15M savings if they cut Tannehill (no one is going to trade for his 15M salary).   So suddenly they have 44M - so they can afford the high 20M+ initial hit Cousins likely commands, esp. as they only need to re-sign one starter on D (S Nate Allen, as LB Stephone Anthony likely takes over for LB Ray Maaluga next cheaply), and only 1G to replace (I'm assuming G Asiata takes 1 of the 2 spots), although that D could use better CB's (but we're spoiled, most teams have that problem).

2.  Tannehill is not going to command the same $ as Cousins (duh), Smith (duh), or even Taylor.   He could easily only find 10-12M AAV type deals.  That fits our budget.   The plus over Taylor is that he would only cost us $.   And likely not a long-term deal where we take on risk, either.  A prove-it deal would fit our goals, as once our D's window closes, we probably want a better solution.

3.  Tannehill's mobility is a major plus for our OL.  He's very good in short-intermediate passing - not so great at deep balls.  One of the most accurate throwers out of the pocket and on the run.   Much like Taylor, skills that would help our bad OL play up. 

Again, it's not sexy, but given our cap situation and win-now type mentality with our D's window, another stopgap 2018 solution, and if we aren't getting Darnold/Rosen, way more likely to actually help us compete for a playoff spot in 2018, without sacrificing our future, or taking on too much risk.  We'd likely want to keep developing Chad Kelly to see if there's anything there.      Now, if Lynch suddenly progresses, then we can consider him too - but right now, we can't work on that hope, it's a loooong shot at this stage.   As I said with a Tyrod Taylor trade scenario (where he's cheaper at 10M for 2018), this is the type of FA target we're realistically looking at.

Tannehill really doesn't impress me. I would rather see what Chad Kelly could do next year. 

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, 7DnBrnc53 said:

Tannehill really doesn't impress me. I would rather see what Chad Kelly could do next year. 

Absolutely Kelly should get a shot.  But realistically we can't pin our hopes on him alone - if he's not ready, or never will be, we have to have someone ready to help now.   It's great to say Cousins or Smith would be a great fit - but we've got 4-5 other teams saying the same thing, with way more cap room, and frankly, our roster isn't special enough to make a FA take that route (and more than likely, WAS & KC can trade their rights to a team, given WAS can do the transition tag, and KC still has him under 2018 contract, albeit with the money mostly non-guaranteed - 17M savings with a trade/release - so they can hold out for someone trading to get him at 17M).   The nice part about a Taylor trade, or a Tannehill/Bridgewater signing - it's likely for 1 year guaranteed only, and it allows for a competition between them and Kelly if Chad is ready to compete.

The problem is we likely won't get to see any in-game action with Kelly, if he's not ready to go soon, he gets IR'd.  We really can't go into OTA's and TC banking on Kelly to be anything more than our 2018 backup.   If he shows more, great problem to have.  But we'll need a 2018 option besides Kelly.

All of this assumes Lynch fails, BTW - so there is that small, small, small, small hope there's something there.  But even then, I don't know how we could go in with Lynch/Kelly as our 2018 options and feel good about that.   As you can tell, I'm not married to Tannehill either - I prefer Taylor at 10M even with a 3rd round pick trade needed to get him that cheaply.   But I'm all about having a tangible plan for 2018 with a vet - our D can't go in with raw rookies/2nd-3rd year guys who haven't shown anything.   

[jsthomp2007]

Aren't the Broncos in the State of Colorado?  I wouldn't change anything about that.  

[AKRNA]

This is 100% Elway. His personnel department, his coaching staff, his salary cap management, his player contracts, his FA pickups.........

Every major decision is his from the draft to FA to FO staffing. Seems to me like his bad decisions are catching up to him.

[broncos67]

Unpopular opinion, but we need to stop talking about the Broncos with the "the D is good now so we must win now" lens. That's what got us in this mess, to a certain degree, in the first place. If Denver has the chance to get a top QB prospect this year, they need to take one. I understand we have an excellent defense, but a young QB can grow and win with an excellent defense. Carson Wentz seems to be doing just fine. Jared Goff seems to be doing just fine. Deshaun Watson was well on his way. The idea that a young QB can't be a contributor is a total joke. Maybe Elway should try drafting a cerebral QB with skills and intangibles instead of tall, big-armed doofuses with nothing between the ears. That would be a start.

Tannehill isn't a bad idea but it's kicking the can down the road. The mindset of going out and signing FA QBs is going to put us in cap hell more than we already are.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Unpopular opinion, but we need to stop talking about the Broncos with the "the D is good now so we must win now" lens. That's what got us in this mess, to a certain degree, in the first place. If Denver has the chance to get a top QB prospect this year, they need to take one. I understand we have an excellent defense, but a young QB can grow and win with an excellent defense. Carson Wentz seems to be doing just fine. Jared Goff seems to be doing just fine. Deshaun Watson was well on his way. The idea that a young QB can't be a contributor is a total joke. Maybe Elway should try drafting a cerebral QB with skills and intangibles instead of tall, big-armed doofuses with nothing between the ears. That would be a start.

Tannehill isn't a bad idea but it's kicking the can down the road. The mindset of going out and signing FA QBs is going to put us in cap hell more than we already are.

I completely agree we can't chase a QB and put us in cap hell - the idea is to go bargain shopping for 2018.    If we can find our QBOTF this offseason, great.  The issue is our cap and likely draft position makes that unlikely.   

The reason why Tannehill/Taylor/Bridgewater are being tossed around is the other theme - they shouldn't be expensive.    If they are, no thanks.  Agree we aren't good enough to sell our future to try for 2018 all-out.   

[big_palooka]

30,000 foot view of the Broncos.... here is my take. 

Elway got lucky landing Peyton Manning. This gave them leadership and a HOF caliber player to lead them to a Superbowl. That was a catalyst to get guys like Welker, Ware, etc.  in. It was a "1 last run" roster of guys wanting to play with Manning.  However, aside from winning that lottery.... Elways has been poor at evaluating talent. Notably in the draft.

Moore, Franklin, Osweiler, Hillman, Williams, Ball, Webster, Latimer, Schofield, Sambrillo, Heuerman, Lynch, 

That's a lot of high picks, including 2 QBs that have yielded little to no value. You can't miss that much, that often on early picks. 

[broncos67]

5 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

30,000 foot view of the Broncos.... here is my take. 

Elway got lucky landing Peyton Manning. This gave them leadership and a HOF caliber player to lead them to a Superbowl. That was a catalyst to get guys like Welker, Ware, etc.  in. It was a "1 last run" roster of guys wanting to play with Manning.  However, aside from winning that lottery.... Elways has been poor at evaluating talent. Notably in the draft.

Moore, Franklin, Osweiler, Hillman, Williams, Ball, Webster, Latimer, Schofield, Sambrillo, Heuerman, Lynch, 

That's a lot of high picks, including 2 QBs that have yielded little to no value. You can't miss that much, that often on early picks. 

I would slightly caveat it to say this- Elway has been very good overall in free agency. Both in the caliber/quality of players he has brought in, and the structure of the deals he has given out. That should be commended because it's a valuable skill. The problem is that you cannot build through FA in today's NFL. It's evident that building through the draft and supplementing through FA is the tried and true method to success. Denver has not gotten back to that. Some of the best players during the SB run were drafted by Denver- particularly on defense. Right now, all the offensive draft pick misses have hampered us. Denver is the only AFCW team to not have a Pro Bowl player drafted after 2011. That's horrific. 

[big_palooka]

14 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I would slightly caveat it to say this- Elway has been very good overall in free agency. Both in the caliber/quality of players he has brought in, and the structure of the deals he has given out. That should be commended because it's a valuable skill. The problem is that you cannot build through FA in today's NFL. It's evident that building through the draft and supplementing through FA is the tried and true method to success. Denver has not gotten back to that. Some of the best players during the SB run were drafted by Denver- particularly on defense. Right now, all the offensive draft pick misses have hampered us. Denver is the only AFCW team to not have a Pro Bowl player drafted after 2011. That's horrific. 

Yes and no. I think he hit on some pieces in the Manning era. Easy to get guys like Sanders, Ware, Talib, Ward, etc. to come play for a SB. Post Superbowl.... paying Watson is a good example of desperation. The guy was a bust in Oakland, what did he expect? Re-signing Brock... you knew who he was, again.... why? Just odd moves. 

[champ11]

36 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Yes and no. I think he hit on some pieces in the Manning era. Easy to get guys like Sanders, Ware, Talib, Ward, etc. to come play for a SB. Post Superbowl.... paying Watson is a good example of desperation. The guy was a bust in Oakland, what did he expect? Re-signing Brock... you knew who he was, again.... why? Just odd moves. 

Sanders and Darian Stewart were not A list guys. Those were massive FA hits. Peko has been a massive success this year. Watson and Stephenson were terrible offensive line signings, but Vazquez was a great one. I think he's overall pretty great in FA. The Brock thing is embarrassing, but obviously insignificant from a money standpoint.

I have issue with calling the Manning signing "lucky." I think that is ridiculous. If anything he deserves more credit with that than the typical free agent signing. To sell your vision and talent coming off an 8 win season and structure a contract in such a unique situation was fantastic. Taking the gamble on the guy that was coming off neck surgery - fantastic. The "lucky that he signed Manning" stuff is complete BS. Did it set the stage for making his job easier? Hell yeah. Because he made the best freakin free agent signing of all time.