Jump to content

How Do You Divide the Blame for Broncos' Current Sorry State?


AnAngryAmerican

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I definitely prefer Tyrod to Teddy, but the sticking point is the $$$. I think Tyrod is going to be far more expensive, and I also don't see why Buffalo would move on from him at this point. I think Tyrod will cost 16-18M per season. On the other hand, Teddy will likely take a prove-it deal (Like the one RG3 got from CLE) in the hopes of playing well year 1 and getting that 16-18M deal after the year ends.

I don't think we can pay a QB 16-18M that it will take to get Tyrod, much less the 20+M it will take to get Cousins, unless we make some REALLY difficult cuts. I am talking Talib type cuts. And I don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul.

That's entirely fair - keep in mind with Jimmy G to the 49ers, we still have Cousins and likely Alex Smith going to teams - so we could get a slight (not huge) discount in the 13-15M range for Tyrod...so long as Tyrod doesn't blow up down the stretch.  He will clearly be the 3rd QB and well behind the other 2 in the FA market if BUF parts ways, and then we have the big draft class that will have at least 3, if not 4 teams committing big resources to that guy.  The bigger risk is as you said, BUF might reconsider their decision and keep him.  

If they don't, though, as long as Elway does his work, there is one other way - BUF's contract with Tyrod is for 1 more year / 16M - which 10M is the salary, and 6M is the roster bonus.  You'd have to agree just before the new year starts (early March), but if BUF agreed to keep him on the roster, take on the 6M roster bonus (which they do once he stays on the roster), then trade him after the new fiscal year has started, for say a 4th round pick (remember it's only for 1 year guaranteed - maybe we have to fork over a 3rd because of BUF taking on 6M) - then you've got him for 10M for 2018.  VERY manageable.    And then you have to decide in 2019 if you keep him or not.  

Now, the above has a lot of if's, but there's a way there.   The real issues are if BUF wants to part ways, and then how much it costs to get him for 1 year of pure control (likely costs more if we then have BUF take on that 6M in salary - something CLE did if you recall with taking on Osweiler's contract off HOU's hands).   It's a long shot, but for all the reasons you outlined, we aren't getting one of the big FA's, and we won't pick early enough to get one of the big 2 QB's (Darnold/Rosen).    So Elway's going to have to be really creative.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Who signed/drafted these offensive players? Elway. It's not like we have a team full of stars and they are underperforming. Elway built this OL- warts and all. Elway failed to find a competent QB, TE, WR Depth, etc... The players aren't good to begin with.

I mean I don't disagree with this.  Is why I stated in my original post that some may pin 50% of the problem on Elway and Co.

However, there is more that goes into it.  As I said, finding a legitimate QB is the hardest thing in the NFL to do.  Literally all but 5 to 8 teams are looking for QBs every year.  Some with more pressing needs than others, obviously.  Elway has tried and failed multiple times now, so that's a concern, but no doubt it's incredibly difficult.  Which is why I said I couldn't completely fault him for that.

The OL is a different story.  Denver has spent some assets in both money and picks, but the way the current NFL is trending finding quality offensive lineman could arguably be the 2nd most difficult player to find, especially OTs.  As I also mentioned, the few teams that have good offensive lines have invested heavily to get such players.  Which on the flipside sacrifices other units on the team.  An argument could certainly be made that Denver needs a switch in philosophy and field a more balanced team as opposed to a defense heavy one.  Though, I must admit, it'd be hard not to be able to continually field one of the best defenses in the game.

As far as the players, Elway is the guy who brought them in, but I wouldn't call them scrubs at least not scrubs in the context of making simple plays.  The KC game was a great example.  Charles has played well all season, no one could predict his momentum and game changing fumble.  Both Virgil Green and Bennie Fowler are by no means stars, but both are fully capable and have proven to be capable of catching open passes where they weren't even hit on contact, which happened 3x Monday night that cost this team 1st downs, momentum, and in 1 instance a TD.  Again, neither is a special talent, but not a single person in this forum would have predicted pre game that both would cause game changing swings by dropping open passes.  This is on the players, they need to figure it out and show up.  They're capable of that and Monday night were put in position to get it done and didn't show up.

The crazy thing is this is almost league wide.  There are people not watching football because of the social aspects, but there are plenty not watching because pure and simple it's terrible football to watch and Denver isn't an outlier in that respect.  The quality of football played this season has been absolute garbage and sadly Denver is part of the issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This team does not need an elite QB to win the championship - it has an elite defence that is capable of doing that. What the Broncos need is a QB that will not dig the defence into a hole that they can't get out of and an OL that will assist the QB in that job. 

If Siemian had decent pass protection then he might not be running around like a headless chicken - defences would not be able to stack the box - the rushing game would be more productive - all of which would help the QB.

I think Siemian is a busted flush at this stage and no matter what protection he had I don't think it would matter - but Elway needs to find a decent Tackle and a decent Guard before he looks for a QB because no matter who is under centre will get killed if he doesn't.

The fact that Elway has now had two off-seasons to fix the problem and has utterly failed (costing $15million cap space in the process) is a major blot on his copybook.

As an aside I am surprised that McGovern hasn't seen some work at G - it doesn't bide well for his career if he cannot get ahead of Garcia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, champ11 said:

So could we just offer up a second round pick rn for Tyrod @Broncofan ? Obviously he probably wouldn't be traded rn, but in theory 

Well, that would be a major overpay for 1 year of control IMO - Jimmy G got a 2nd rounder because the presumption is he's staying long-term (SF has the room to franchise him 2 years and transition tag him 1x, so that's 3 years - our cap situation and Tyrod's contract/profile only commit to 1 year), and he supposedly has an elite level ceiling.

But, more importantly, we'd probably only deal a pick if the Bills would agree to hold him for the start of next year - that reduces our cap hit from 16M to 10M for 2018.   That's huge given our other OL & ILB needs.   Can't expect to address all of them via the draft - drafts take 2-3 years to bear fruit for most players outside the first round.  That's been a huge problem that Elway's been trying to plug holes immediately with the draft, instead of looking to FA and using draft to restock overall talent.  

Now, this scenario could all go for naught if the Bills decide to keep Taylor.   But if they decide they want to part ways, us offering a 3rd/4th instead of him walking for free, the Bills would certainly explore.   Keep in mind if they release him outright there's no compensation tied to him re-signing elsewhere, either.   So it's really keep him, or look to get what they can for him on the market, or release him and get nothing.    You can see why a keep-for-new-year and trade seems more likely if the Bills decide to part ways, than just let him hit the open market. 

Either way, as with last year, this offseason, our QB, OL, ILB & 3rd WR issues will once again be top priorities in the offseason - let's just hope Elway recognizes that trade/FA have to be how you address most of those areas, so we aren't pigeon-holed by need, and Elway chases picks based purely on 2018 need instead of accumulating overall talent - it's too soon to render verdicts on the drafted players as individuals, but Elway's goal to have a sudden impact on the O and ST by having multiple redundant picks has been a colossal failure, and as he used the draft to try and help immediately in those areas (he said so himself), he's certainly accountable for this.   He's always learned from past mistakes - hopefully he learns from this one, and from his one-player-away draft approach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If the Bills make the playoffs this  year...why in the world would they let Tyrod go?  

He's the best QB they've had since I started following sports so your guess is as good as mine. They refused to commit to him last offseason.

 

And thanks for the input @Broncofan. Didn't really understand his contract

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If the Bills make the playoffs this  year...why in the world would they let Tyrod go?  

 

1 hour ago, champ11 said:

He's the best QB they've had since I started following sports so your guess is as good as mine. They refused to commit to him last offseason.

 

And thanks for the input @Broncofan. Didn't really understand his contract


As @champ11 alluded to, it's really curious, but 2x now in 2 years BUF has had a chance to lock Taylor up, and 2x they've put out clauses for the next year.   Now if Taylor was on our team in 2016-17, we'd have kept the original contract from last year TBH and been happy about it.  Weird to say the least, but BUF is sending pretty clear signals they're not committed to him - remember this is a new FO, they didn't draft him or develop him.  

Also, keep in mind BUF entered the season with 2 1sts, and acquired more picks with their trades of Darby and Watkins.   2 1sts, 2 2nd, 2 3rds.   In this QB draft class, that's enough ammunition to move up and get one of the top 2 QB's....if you have a top 10 pick, which entering the season, seemed most likely - their D just gelled with that great running game to make them a potential WC team.    So maybe they change their mind and stick with Tyrod - but given the ammo they have draft wise, if the new FO has a guy they prefer, well, stranger things have happened - and judging by how BUF has handled Taylor after 2015 season and last year, they clearly are only comfortable going year-to-year, looking for an upgrade each offseason - so it's more than just smoke, BUF's own actions point to parting ways with the new FO in place as a real possibility.   The thing is, Taylor's played well enough this year if the FO still wants to move on, then they can definitely explore a trade and take on the roster bonus to get a better pick.  Taylor's played well enough BUF could change their mind - but if they don't, BUF is in the catbird's seat where they can definitely get a team like us to fork over a Day 2 pick to get him relatively cheaply (and really cheaply if they want to take on the roster bonus before dealing him - like how CLE got a pick for simply taking on Oz' contract, except here BUF would simply wait long enough to take the 6M roster bonus, making Taylor ridiculously cheap at 10M for 2018...and in our options to extend after that).

Keep in mind that in terms of FA and draft, there are probably 2 elite QB targets in the draft, and assuming Cousins & Smith & Taylor are let go, 3 difference-maker FA QB's (NO has enough $ to keep Brees).   We know CLE has both the draft picks and the $ to either go early QB or Cousins.   We can pretty much assume JAX, being literally 1 QB away from being a complete team and SB contender (Allen Robinson returns to address WR weakness next year, they'll franchise tag him at worst to keep him, WR tag isn't crazy if you are a young top talent, and he is).  WAS will also have 50M+ left, so they have us outgunned.   As discussed, the G-men, Jets and Bills have us seriously outgunned in the draft capital market.   JAX & WAS you have to believe are going to be the frontrunners for Cousins (JAX) & Smith (WAS) - and likely both original 2017 teams can engineer a trade (WAS can apply the transition tag and then this forces a trade, rather than letting him walk; KC can posture like they will renew his 18M non-guaranteed salary - but being 17M over the cap, the only guy they can cut and get under with a replacement there is Smith..as crazy as it sounds after his season - so they likely find a trade partner too).  

Add it all up, the vet QB market is actually likely to be a trade-and-sign market for Cousins, Smith and Taylor - now, the cost isn't likely to be even as high as Jimmy G for Smith and Taylor (Cousins is rightfully viewed as a top 5-8 QB, true franchise guy, don't think Smith and Taylor will ever be viewed that way, even with the great 1H Smith has had, too many years of being a decent but not elite QB to think it's suddenly different now).  Why?  Because the QB's aren't elite-ceiling (except maybe Cousins) & young and cheaper to control.  But they aren't likely to be cut - a Day 2 pick is likely needed to get their rights for Taylor/Smith.   Still, for a win-now team, it's a price worth paying - in Taylor's case, even more so if we can get salary relief.   

Either way, the offseason should be fascinating - even if BUF hangs on to Taylor, WAS - Cousins (destined to part, the Q is how much pick-wise will it cost a team to get him), and KC-Alex Smith (same deal with KC, but KC can't keep Smith and field a complete team, so they won't ask for nearly as much) trades likely happen before Draft Day 2018.  The hot stove season should be cookin'. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, champ11 said:

we should ask @marshawn lynch who just dropped by the forum also 

Well as a Bills fan I think I speak for all of us when I say that Taylor is really solid. He is definition of a game manager. With him our run game will always be good even if McCoy struggles.  He doesn't turn the ball over. So as long as the defense plays well, he will keep you in the game. I could see him leading us to the playoffs. The issue is us Bills fans can't see him stepping up to the next level. He will never pass for 400 or even 300 yards. A great game for him is 250 yards passing and 50 yards rushing. He will never be the QB that takes us deep into the playoffs. He takes longest to throw the ball out of anyone in the NFL and he doesn't throw to receivers unless they are wide open. Dennison tried to get him to throw receivers open during preseason but he struggled with that... Actually Nathan Peterman looked like our best QB. While I like Taylor's leadership and game management skills, I'd prefer a QB that can make more plays. My favorite QB since Drew Bledsoe was actually Kyle Orton even if we didn't have him long. Had a 9:5 TD to INT ratio so he could protect the ball (although not as good as Tyrod) but could also throw for 300 yards. Not sure what I would take for him in a trade because I'd want to have a proven player as a backup just in case before making him move. But with all our picks I could see us drafting a QB this year even if Tyrod plays good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

Well as a Bills fan I think I speak for all of us when I say that Taylor is really solid. He is definition of a game manager. With him our run game will always be good even if McCoy struggles.  He doesn't turn the ball over. So as long as the defense plays well, he will keep you in the game. I could see him leading us to the playoffs. The issue is us Bills fans can't see him stepping up to the next level. He will never pass for 400 or even 300 yards. A great game for him is 250 yards passing and 50 yards rushing. He will never be the QB that takes us deep into the playoffs. He takes longest to throw the ball out of anyone in the NFL and he doesn't throw to receivers unless they are wide open. Dennison tried to get him to throw receivers open during preseason but he struggled with that... Actually Nathan Peterman looked like our best QB. While I like Taylor's leadership and game management skills, I'd prefer a QB that can make more plays. My favorite QB since Drew Bledsoe was actually Kyle Orton even if we didn't have him long. Had a 9:5 TD to INT ratio so he could protect the ball (although not as good as Tyrod) but could also throw for 300 yards. Not sure what I would take for him in a trade because I'd want to have a proven player as a backup just in case before making him move. But with all our picks I could see us drafting a QB this year even if Tyrod plays good.

Yeah thx for confirming what we've been hearing - there's no way I see BUF cutting him outright after playing well this year.  But if they were willing to take 6M of salary to make it affordable for us to take him as a 2018 solution (and then we have the same type of decision you face now for 2019+), I could see us offering a 3rd for him, and make it a conditional 2nd if he hits certain performance marks (top 10 QBR, or yards/TD's, games won, etc.).  It would likely only happen around Draft Day, when you know if you can get your guy too.   Peterman then becomes your rookie's 2018 competition, and long-term backup.    The reasons why you guys aren't clear on keeping Taylor are why I don't think it's any higher than a 3rd (maybe the 2nd is necessary for the 6M in cap relief, but by Draft Day you'd already have made that call to take on the 6M, so maybe we'd be able to get a 3rd round pick to get the deal done).   Pretty clear your team's FO loves picks, so there's a potential fit, if the FO's can get creative to fit our $ needs as well, as 2018 is tight given we'll need more $ to address OL and ILB and 3rd WR too (draft can only do so much, at least the way Elway currently drafts lol).

I would say your D is almost good enough you could win with Taylor in playoffs - we won the SB50 with a historic-level D (remember we had Trevathan at LB and Malik Jackson at other DE, and Ware as our 2nd EDGE and Ray as our 3rd EDGE), but Peyton Manning was actually Peyton-corpse, not Peyton of old.   Taylor could have won on that team as our QB.   Now your D isn't quite at that level, but you're not that far off.  But I get the feeling - if you guys fall behind, it's unclear if Taylor can bring you back.  That's a legit issue - his 4Q play is much better this year, though.  Certainly we'd need our QB to be as mobile as he is lol.  

Thx @marshawn lynch that helps move the discussion forward, much appreciated.  B|

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BTW, while I don't see us being able to compete for Cousins or Alex Smith, and a trade for Tyrod Taylor, while desirable, would mean a lot of pieces would have to fall the right way.  And in the last case, BUF could change direction and keep him.  Draft-wise, unless we fall well below our 7-9/6-10 worst case scenario, it seems that getting a Darnold/Rosen isn't happening, given how many teams have more draft capital than we do, both in terms of extra picks and having an earlier 1st (which makes it hard to make up ground, esp. when you add the extra ammo QB-needy teams have over us).  Stafford is locked up, and I covered why Brees staying in NO seems more and more likely.

So, looking at 2018 more, one more name as a 1-2 year stopgap - Mia's Ryan Tannehill.  He's not a trade candidate - more likely to be released.  Why?   Well, 3 reasons:

1.  MIA and Gase could make a huge case to go after Cousins in FA.   They only have 18M in 2018 cap space, but unlike Elway, they're willing to sacrifice the future, and restructure contracts - they can do it with Suh, and add 11M+.   Then they get another 15M savings if they cut Tannehill (no one is going to trade for his 15M salary).   So suddenly they have 44M - so they can afford the high 20M+ initial hit Cousins likely commands, esp. as they only need to re-sign one starter on D (S Nate Allen, as LB Stephone Anthony likely takes over for LB Ray Maaluga next cheaply), and only 1G to replace (I'm assuming G Asiata takes 1 of the 2 spots), although that D could use better CB's (but we're spoiled, most teams have that problem).

2.  Tannehill is not going to command the same $ as Cousins (duh), Smith (duh), or even Taylor.   He could easily only find 10-12M AAV type deals.  That fits our budget.   The plus over Taylor is that he would only cost us $.   And likely not a long-term deal where we take on risk, either.  A prove-it deal would fit our goals, as once our D's window closes, we probably want a better solution.

3.  Tannehill's mobility is a major plus for our OL.  He's very good in short-intermediate passing - not so great at deep balls.  One of the most accurate throwers out of the pocket and on the run.   Much like Taylor, skills that would help our bad OL play up. 

Again, it's not sexy, but given our cap situation and win-now type mentality with our D's window, another stopgap 2018 solution, and if we aren't getting Darnold/Rosen, way more likely to actually help us compete for a playoff spot in 2018, without sacrificing our future, or taking on too much risk.  We'd likely want to keep developing Chad Kelly to see if there's anything there.      Now, if Lynch suddenly progresses, then we can consider him too - but right now, we can't work on that hope, it's a loooong shot at this stage.   As I said with a Tyrod Taylor trade scenario (where he's cheaper at 10M for 2018), this is the type of FA target we're realistically looking at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...