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Week 3 GDT - Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers


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Anytime you can start 2-0 with both games being on the road and on the east coast time, you will take it. While there have been some ugly moments in both Lions and Eagles game, the team did what they had to do. The first game the offense was great and the second game was led by the defense. This week both units will need to play good ball to beat the Packers.

The team has done well on the EC trips the last few years but then they always have a let down coming back home. From the Pittsburgh game in 2019 (won, but SLOPPY performance), to the Falcons game also in 2019 and the Eagles game last season. The offense was just off in all three games and the team wasn't fully there. I'm hoping the late start game will help in that regard this time around.

This game should be an interesting one with the Packers finding their footing in the second half last night. They will be without Za'darius Smith which is huge as he is their best pass rusher. They put no pressure at all in the first half and Goff was lighting the defense up...But the DL and defense as an whole was better in the second half. We really struggled running the ball vs Philly but I kind of expected that. Even with all the RB injuries, I think the run game gets back on track and we see quite a bit of Lance. The corners are not bad for the Packers but Jimmy will need to be willing to take some shots or at the very least attack the sidelines. The Packers started using Alexander inside and had Stokes on the outside opposite of King. The rookie held up very well. I wonder if they put Alexander on Kittle on key 3rd downs? Deebo has been on fire but if this offense is truly going to be one of the best in the league, then Kittle/Aiyuk will need to join the party. Aiyuk still only got two targets vs Philly which was disappointing. He was very good against man coverage last season so I just hope Jimmy starts giving him some chances vs the Packers corners. Just a guess, but I think Lance plays at least 7-10 snaps and Shanny tries to get the read option/zone read element going. And I fully expect one deep shot from Lance! 

Defensively, I hope Moseley is able to go this week but you just know Rodgers will test Lenoir early and often. The pass rush will need to get to Rodgers so he doesn't have time to take the deep shots but the safeties will really need to be on their game. Adams vs any of our corners is a mismatch, but we should be able to check the rest of the weapons fairly well. Bosa will need to win his reps vs Jenkins and force the Packers to give Jenkins some help. Armstead has been very good from the interior but for that to continue happening, the defense will need to win the early downs and can't let Jones get loose. Ford will need to play around 20-25 snaps and get to Rodgers. If Ford is not in the game, then we just don't get much pressure from that side. Armstead is a very good interior rusher but not nearly as good from the edge obviously. Will be interesting to see how much Ryans blitzes Rodgers. He didn't blitz much in week 1 but did a whole a lot of that last week. The key again will be to contain Jones. If he gets going, then I don't see the corners holding up vs Rodgers.

I think the offense will be better and the defense will be good enough while making some big plays. Any time we are good, we usually beat the Packers in the regular season and then again in the playoffs. Well, I'm predicting that continues.

SF 31

GB 24

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Why I think we'll win:

  • Home opener with a pent up crowd waiting to burst on prime time football
  • Catching the Packers on a short week (NFL teams have a 47% winning percentage on short weeks in the past 4 years)
  • The Packers are missing their best OL and their best pass rusher
  • Their defense has been underwhelming to start the year
  • Norman and D-Mo have looked good and we're getting E-Man back
  • We own the Packers 
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4 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Why I think we'll win:

  • Home opener with a pent up crowd waiting to burst on prime time football
  • Catching the Packers on a short week (NFL teams have a 47% winning percentage on short weeks in the past 4 years)
  • The Packers are missing their best OL and their best pass rusher
  • Their defense has been underwhelming to start the year
  • Norman and D-Mo have looked good and we're getting E-Man back
  • We own the Packers 

Hope so, but our corner situation is less than ideal without Verrett. The front four will have to win and get to Rodgers without blitzing so our corners can get some safety help. Ward on Tonyan is a match up we need to win.

I do feel good about the match up but Rodgers is Rodgers and he can light us up like he did last season...Of course, we had some injuries but he really took the top off the defense and took advantage of our corners. You can confidently say our corner situation is any better.

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Shootout incoming, I think.

We have often struggled at home after east coast trips, and obviously in a vacuum I'm always picking Rodgers over Jimmy in a shootout. 

But we still remain a bad match up for the Packers. Defensive front should eat

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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Hope so, but our corner situation is less than ideal without Verrett. The front four will have to win and get to Rodgers without blitzing so our corners can get some safety help. Ward on Tonyan is a match up we need to win.

I do feel good about the match up but Rodgers is Rodgers and he can light us up like he did last season...Of course, we had some injuries but he really took the top off the defense and took advantage of our corners. You can confidently say our corner situation is any better.

Last season can be thrown out the window. He went up against our scout team defense, so of course he was going to be amazing. I am worried about Adams. You can't shut him down, you can only force Rodgers to look elsewhere. Our DL is playing like it's 2019 again, so Rodgers shouldn't have a comfortable pocket, especially since Baktiari is out. 

Jenkins has looked pretty good at LT, but Bosa is a different animal than what he's faced so far this season. The Eagles doubled Bosa and Kinlaw often, which left everyone else in 1-on-1 situations. This is where Armstead, Ford, Ebukam, Jones, Kerr, and Street need to win their battles on the right side. 

Forcing Rodgers into quick pass situations will negate Adams down-field value to an extent and force their pass catchers to break tackles against a solid tackling defense. 

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8 minutes ago, malak1 said:

What does SF's runningback depth chart look like for this game specifically? 

Good question. If Mitchell is good to go, he will start and get the bulk of the carries. If Sermon is good to go, he will be the relief back and a smaller portion of the carriers. If neither or only one of them are good to go, then it could be anyone really. 

Shanny is a notoriously difficult person to predict. Mitchell seems to be the only RB he trusts right now, so if he's healthy, it will be mostly Mitchell. 

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1 minute ago, NinerNation21 said:

Good question. If Mitchell is good to go, he will start and get the bulk of the carries. If Sermon is good to go, he will be the relief back and a smaller portion of the carriers. If neither or only one of them are good to go, then it could be anyone really. 

Shanny is a notoriously difficult person to predict. Mitchell seems to be the only RB he trusts right now, so if he's healthy, it will be mostly Mitchell. 

Random question, but is there any change Jacques Patrick gets the bulk of carries if Mitchell and Sermon are out (Hasty has already been ruled out too, iirc)?

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Just now, malak1 said:

Random question, but is there any change Jacques Patrick gets the bulk of carries if Mitchell and Sermon are out (Hasty has already been ruled out too, iirc)?

Again, really hard to say. If he has a good week of practice and Shanny trusts him, then yeah he could. The only way guys like Kerryon Johnson, Patrick, Thompson, or Cannon see the field is if Mitchell can't go or has to exit the game. 

This could also be a game where we see more jet sweeps and shovel pass run plays that Shanny has used to perfection with guys like Deebo and Aiyuk. We haven't really seen many of them yet this year, so this week could be the week we see more.

Also, the X Factor here is Trey Lance. Manufactured touches for him and RPOs could be in play this week, but again, Shanny didn't use him at all last week even when our RBs were dropping like flies and we needed clock control so it's a true mystery if Lance plays or not.

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29 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Just waiting for @Forge's pick to see if I should feel confident about this or game or not lol.

Seems like there is a chance both MItchell and Sermon are able to play this week. 

I've been kicking it back and forth. Really tough call. I'd obviously have more faith in Rodgers, but I still maintain that we are just an absolutely awful matchup for them when healthy. And they are missing two key pieces? I think I may end up picking us. 

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

I've been kicking it back and forth. Really tough call. I'd obviously have more faith in Rodgers, but I still maintain that we are just an absolutely awful matchup for them when healthy. And they are missing two key pieces? I think I may end up picking us. 

Just trust Rodgers and pick the Packers so I can feel better about this game 😄.

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4 minutes ago, Forge said:

I've been kicking it back and forth. Really tough call. I'd obviously have more faith in Rodgers, but I still maintain that we are just an absolutely awful matchup for them when healthy. And they are missing two key pieces? I think I may end up picking us. 

This is where I'm at. No Bakhtiari and no Z.Smith is a big blow for the Packers. With that said, Jenkins has filled in admirably at LT, but he also hasn't faced someone like Bosa yet. 

I like our chances a lot in this game, but it's not going to be easy shutting down Rodgers, Jones, and Adams. We're going to have to put up points and our passing game is going to have to be a lot better than what it was last week. 

 

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