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Week 3 GDT - Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers


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10 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Everyone assumes our top 3 was Lawrence, Wilson, Lance. Could have been Lawrence, Lance, Jones or some other combination of the 3. 

While all the smoke on Jones was overblown, i do think Shanny liked him a lot. 

Anyways, i'm hopeful we get some Lance, Sermon, Kittle, Aiyuk & Sherfield involved in the gameplan this weekend. Also hopeful that Mitchell is healthy. I love Deebo but we should be getting everyone else involved too

Yeah, this offense is weird right now. It's literally only Deebo and Mitchell on the same couple of plays. I have to believe that Shanny is doing this to set up some shot plays later in the season because it doesn't make much sense to me outside of that. 

I know he's weird about putting stuff on tape, so I'm hoping it's him not wanting to give other teams a lot of looks of what we're scheming. 

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18 hours ago, Forge said:

Also, I believe those numbers you're linking are from 2020, when they were the most efficient offense in the NFL in terms of points per drive and points per game

Man, you're right. Seems like warren sharp no longer updates his website. Damn. That was a good resource last year. 

If anyone has a good pace of play resource (not TOP), that would be appreciated!

2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

When Rodgers plays within the structure of the offense, he's dynamite. When he tries to hold the ball and hit the big play, he's abysmal. Some of that is age- he doesn't move as fast anymore, so eluding the sacks is harder. Some of that is because he didn't do squat in offseason or TC in terms of "game speed" so he was half a second slow on everything vs the Saints. Looked better by 2nd half of Det. game

This is moderately ironic because when he was at his peak 5 or so years ago, it felt (meaning I dont have any metrics to confirm or deny) like a lot of the packers big plays were a result of rodgers holding onto the ball and waiting for routes to develop downfield. 

His deep ball accuracy was unparalleled and he was always looking for the big play. 

It makes sense why his resurgence coincided with a new offensive scheme that gave him easier/quicker throws. You certainly take fewer hits by getting rid of the ball faster. 

Edited by N4L
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4 minutes ago, N4L said:

 

Because he's low key awful against winning teams for a great qb. 42.5% winning percentage against winning teams since 2012, 46% since coming into the league

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5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Because he's low key awful against winning teams for a great qb. 42.5% winning percentage against winning teams since 2012, 46% since coming into the league

TBF to Rodgers he has had a total of 1 Top 10 defense in those years and his best defense was probably at best 9th and the 49ers dropped 37 points on them in the playoffs.... 

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24 minutes ago, N4L said:

This is moderately ironic because when he was at his peak 5 or so years ago, it felt (meaning I dont have any metrics to confirm or deny) like a lot of the packers big plays were a result of Rodgers holding onto the ball and waiting for routes to develop downfield. 

Correct and ironic.
That style of play worked for awhile, but eventually the league caught up to that act and the quality of WRs dropped off. Once Jordy, Driver, Jennings and Cobb moved on, it was Adams and a bunch of role players who couldn't consistently beat their man
But his knowledge of that offense was encyclopedic and he made it work
In the Shanahan/MLF offense, its designed to get guys open and to happen instantly and Rodgers hasn't completely adapted yet.

That being said, GB offense was number 1 in 2020 and the old man isn't quite dead yet: as he's shown excellence across (2) different offensive systems- see below

from Warren Sharp

"Only 7 times in NFL history has a quarterback thrown 500+ attempts with 5 or fewer interceptions
Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to do it more than once...
and he owns 4 of those 7 seasons!

Even more insane?
He’s done it THREE YEARS IN A ROW: 2018, 2019 & 2020"
 
None of that matters if the Packers can't run the ball (with a re-shuffled OL) and stop the run on Sunday night.

 

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32 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

TBF to Rodgers he has had a total of 1 Top 10 defense in those years and his best defense was probably at best 9th and the 49ers dropped 37 points on them in the playoffs.... 

He also led the team to 0 points in the first half of that game as well as the first half of the regular season meeting. The two turnovers contributed to 10-14 points (I don't remember) in the playoff game and he had a fumble in the first quarter of the regular season meeting which put the team in a whole.

While the defenses weren't good, he wasn't good either. His final stat line in the playoffs looks good, but ignores that he got majority of those numbers when the team was down 27-0. 

 

Edited by J-ALL-DAY
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2 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

He also led the team to 0 points in the first half of that game as well as the first half of the regular season meeting. The two turnovers contributed to 10-14 points (I don't remember) in the playoff game and he had a fumble in the first quarter of the regular season meeting which put the team in a whole.

While the defenses weren't good, he wasn't good either. His final stat line in the playoffs looks good, but ignores that he got majority of those numbers when the team was down 27-0. 

 

Hey I don't disagree with anything you say... He has underperformed in big games for the last 3 to 4 years for sure. 

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57 minutes ago, N4L said:

 

Well, to be fair, no guarantee this Niners team finishes the season with a winning record lol. 

But yeah, I mentioned it earlier in the thread but any time we have been good, we beat the Packers. Beat them in the regular season and then again in the playoffs. SOOO, if we do win on Sunday, you could damn near guarantee we will meet them in the playoffs....and beat them again!

Over/under 4.5 Lance snaps? 

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12 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Well, to be fair, no guarantee this Niners team finishes the season with a winning record lol. 

But yeah, I mentioned it earlier in the thread but any time we have been good, we beat the Packers. Beat them in the regular season and then again in the playoffs. SOOO, if we do win on Sunday, you could damn near guarantee we will meet them in the playoffs....and beat them again!

Over/under 4.5 Lance snaps? 

I personally think Seattle is the Lance game. Jimmy has stunk royally against the Seahawks in every game but the 2019 division clincher (which isn’t a large sample size due to injury, but still). They nullify his strengths, crowd the box and clutter the middle of the field. Press up on our rather mediocre wide receivers. I think if we see an Eagles game start with worse luck, he’ll get the yank and deserve it. More power to him if he does well, though. 

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I guarantee that we see Rodgers throw a bunch of quick bubble screens to Adams on the right side of the formation and Tonyan on TE screens like we do with Kittle. This will be the bulk of the passing offense against us.  

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1 hour ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Heard Armstead might not play. Is that true? 

He didn’t practice today, but he also didn’t practice much last week either and played really well. 
 

My guess - unless he’s in a serious amount of pain Sunday night, he will play.  

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Yea, AA is at that point in his career where I don't think he really needs the practice reps to be effective on gameday. He knows the scheme and the calls. He pretty much sat out the entire preseason and hit the ground running vs Detroit. 

My guess is that they'll continue to 'manage' his injury, letting him rest during the week as he gets ready to see the field on Sundays. That's the move until Hurst is back. Then I can see them shutting him down for a few weeks to get him right.

 

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