Packers waive TE Jace Sternberger

[skibrett15]

3 hours ago, incognito_man said:

oh c'mon. He had every chance imaginable here to grab a spot...he just thwarted his chances and at some point you reward the men who do not thwart their opportunities over those who do.

thwhat?

squander.

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, Joe said:

That may be true, but every year someone throws up a pick value chart whenever we're discussing draft day trades and it gets destroyed. I would've been perfectly happy to trade up to 50 from 62 in any draft, even if it looks like we're giving up a lot by giving up a 3rd. Also, bear in mind we can always see if we can snag a decent Day 3 pick in the process; doesn't hurt to ask.

 

After I last posted, someone else mentioned the idea of trading our 3rd for an actual veteran player; a move that I would completely support provided we're getting a proven player with a relatively clean injury history and reasonable contract.

It really doesn't get destroyed as much as you are making it out to be.  But it's also important to remember that it's a guideline, not a firm value chart.  Almost a decade ago, the Dolphins traded #12 (1200 points) and #42 (480 points) to Oakland for #3 (2200 points).  By the TVC alone, the Raiders "lost" that trade by roughly an early SRP.  But why did the Raiders give up that kind of value?  First off, their SRP (#42) was dealt to Cincinnati as part of the Carson Palmer trade, which meant they'd go from 3 to 66 without a pick.  Secondly, that was viewed as one of the worst drafts in NFL history.

Moving from 62 to ~50 doesn't really make much sense since you're usually drafting in a similar tier at 50 as you are at 62.  Most draft boards have roughly 150 "draftable" guys on the board.  First round grades are largely the same from team-to-team with a few exceptions.  There's not a whole lot of variation here, and that's been confirmed by former GMs and other high FA personnel.  You start seeing more variance the further you go down the draft.  By the time you're picking outside early Day 3, you're likely moving into the guys that you've got graded out as priority UDFAs.  For the Packers, I'd suspect that draft board was somewhere around where Slaton was picking.

[Mazrimiv]

On 9/21/2021 at 2:30 PM, incognito_man said:

I suspect they are all right around average or slightly above for expected AV for draft position.

List is probably better than most teams. Most 3rd rounders don't stick around for even 2 years probably.

You are saying most RD3 picks don't make it to the end of year 2 on the team that drafted them?

[incognito_man]

19 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

You are saying most RD3 picks don't make it to the end of year 2 on the team that drafted them?

I might be off, but I bet it's not much more than half that are rostered in year 3 on their drafting team.

But, to expand the duration slightly - I am pretty confident that the majority of 3rd round picks do not make it to the last year of their contract with their drafting team.

[cannondale]

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

[cannondale]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=7dc477967495

-          Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;

-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round;

-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;

 

Edited September 24, 2021 by cannondale

[mikemike778]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

I might be off, but I bet it's not much more than half that are rostered in year 3 on their drafting team.

But, to expand the duration slightly - I am pretty confident that the majority of 3rd round picks do not make it to the last year of their contract with their drafting team.

 

I think the problem with the 3rd round is its kind of between tiers.

• Rounds 1 and Round 2 has the talent. You can shoot for talented players in key positions
• Rounds 4 and Round 5 are mid rounds, we have done very well there going for non glamour players and positions. Interior linemen are great here

Round 3 is a day two pick so seems like we going for a round 2 kind of player but the talent isn't there, especially at the bottom of the 3rd. Have to see if Rodgers bucks the trend as its another one of that kind of pick. Might be better just thinking of it as a priority 4th rounder and draft the kind of player we would draft in the 4th or 5th

 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

On 9/24/2021 at 6:16 PM, mikemike778 said:

 

I think the problem with the 3rd round is its kind of between tiers.

• Rounds 1 and Round 2 has the talent. You can shoot for talented players in key positions
• Rounds 4 and Round 5 are mid rounds, we have done very well there going for non glamour players and positions. Interior linemen are great here

Round 3 is a day two pick so seems like we going for a round 2 kind of player but the talent isn't there, especially at the bottom of the 3rd. Have to see if Rodgers bucks the trend as its another one of that kind of pick. Might be better just thinking of it as a priority 4th rounder and draft the kind of player we would draft in the 4th or 5th

 

 

It's not even that, it's multiple bellcurves driven by perceived positional value.

In the first ten picks, you are drafting guys who are stud players at premium positions.

In the next ten picks, you're drafting high level players at premium positions, or studs at non premium positions.

In the next ten picks you're drafting good but not elite players at premium positions, or high level players at non premium positions. 

[ReadyToThump]

Which TE had the better career in GB? Jace Sternberger or Jake Stoneburner

[Mr Bad Example]

Sternberger actually caught a pass, so I guess he wins that one. 

[Norm]

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Edited September 27, 2021 by Norm