If He Were to Retire Today is Matt Ryan a HOF Quarterback?

[lancerman]

On 9/25/2021 at 7:33 PM, BayRaider said:

Unfortunately the Hall has much lower standards than fans. I'm going by the Hall's standards and people I see consistently get in. 

It really doesn't. Fans by and large have very low standards for the HOF and think any QB that was merely a franchise level guy who started for a good decade plus will get in. In the last 20 years 11 QB's got in. Joe Montana, Steve Young, John Elway, Dan Marino, Brett Farve, and Peyton Manning are 6 of those 11. So more than half the guys that got in are players that typically make the top 10 All time at the position lists. Then of the remaining 5 you have Aikman who when he retired was one of 3 QB's to have 3 or more SB's which was rarified air at the time, Kelly who was the only QB to go to 4 consecutive SB's. Also you have to realize at the time the record for SB appearances was 5. So Kelly had as many SB appearances as Montana and Bradshaw and was second only to Elway. 

So Ryan is already shouldn't even be compared with 8 of the 11. He's nowhere near the resume to even make that argument.

So we are left with 3. Moon, Stabler and Friedman. Friedman was a vet commitee guy that got overlooked and got in more for being a trailblazer in the very earlier years of the NFL. Ryan is never getting in off that argument. Warren is a special case because he was a an important figure for black QB's, was largely unfairly kept from the NFL for many years and voters considered that he had a lot of good years in the CFL, and he still finished top 5 in yards and TD's and had a Brady level of longevity. Ryan is not getting in off that HOF case. 

So we are left with Ken Stabler as the sole HOF guy in the last 20 years that Ryan could possibly compare himself to. Stabler has a similar resume with one year of an MVP, OPOY and First Team All Pro. Stabler however also has a ring, he also has an additional second team All Pro. In addition to leadin the league in passer rating once like Ryan he also led the league in TD's twice. Stabler also had the record for most consecutive conference championship game appearances for 40 years until Brady broke it. So realistically the closest guy Ryan can compare himself to has the most important thing Ryan lacks and an overall better resume beyond that. And Stabler still famously waited 28 years to get in and got in after he died. It's also not a coincidence that the NFL finally smartened up the year after he died either for what it's worth. 

So realistically no. Ryan has very little chance of getting in as things currently stand. 

[lancerman]

On 9/26/2021 at 4:55 PM, scar988 said:

When Ryan retires, if his numbers are close to Marino's, he's getting in. Both have 1 MVP, and both have 1 SB appearance with no wins. At a certain point, the pro bowls are going to not matter for the HOF. And it's tough to win 1st team all-pro in the era with Brady dominating for 25 years.

No he's not lol. You are looking at it WAY too out of context. When Marino retired he was the all time leader in the major statistics and he was so far ahead of everyone he held those records for over a decade until Farve took them and Marino is still like the only QB left besides Elway to still be near the top 5 in most stats that didn't play in the 2000's or later. 

Voters aren't stupid. When they voted Marino in he was a statistical anomaly. Ryan is not. Marino was considered the only guy during that era you could compare to Montana and many people debated who was better at the time. Nobody debates that Ryan is the best in the league. Marino's MVP is still the GOAT QB season. It's the legendary season that all other great QB seasons are compared to. Ryan was one of many great MVP seasons during his era. Brady 2010, Rodgers 2011, Manning 2013, Mahomes 2018 are all ahead of it just in that decade. 

Also there is no HOF handicap where you get a lower bar due to who your peers were. You are compared to your peers.