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Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags


notthatbluestuff

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Honestly, when you’re a lower tier team with a rookie qb why throw them into the fire as a starter?

Usually these teams have bad o lines and you’re risking them getting beaten up. Get a placeholder qb for a year and let the rookie learn from the sidelines.

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4 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

So what would you need to see? The Jaguars offense is close enough to what Cleveland had in terms of talent that Lawrence being a better prospect than Baker should at least lead to Lawrence being somewhat successful.

That’s not really true, though. 

Add the two rosters and the Browns have the best receiver, the best tight end, the better offensive line, the better running back (including a third down specialist). I guess the bottom of Chark/Jones/Shenault is probably better than the bottom of Landry/Calloway/Higgins, so there’s that.

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2 hours ago, pwny said:

Baker's team was not really worse than the Jags roster. They had two years of adding talent to a tear down. The Jags are at year 1 of doing so. Give or take, they’re probably roughly the same. And comparison's sake...

 

Here's Baker's first three starts of his NFL career:

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Looks like Baker was pretty awful when he first got his chance to start too. And then as the season progressed and he got more comfortable, and his running game started actually being used effectively with Chubb, he turned it on and found his groove. It was his 4th start when he finally put together a good game across the length of the game and came out of it looking like a guy that was starting to get it. Kinda exactly what I've been saying we should be waiting to see with Trevor. So maybe we should chill out on the declarations of what Trevor is and isn't. Just maybe.

As for what I want to see from Trevor for a rookie season? Number one, again, is a full season. Every play. A true decent sample size of a brand new player to the league, not bits and pieces of three games. I want to see him continue to make the eye popping plays that he's making, I want to see him continue to manipulate the pocket and avoid sacks, and want to see him not look rattled, even when the pass rush is getting home a bunch. I want to see him develop chemistry with certain receivers over the course of the season to where we know who is worth retaining and who needs to be replaced. I'd like to see the coaching staff adjust and start to learn what does and doesn't work with this group, and call more consistent games, and when they'd do that, I'd like to see a reduction from him in the streaks of not good throws. I want to see him continue to learn what is and isn't a throw that he can make at this level and a reduction in those turnover worthy plays. I want to see him have games where there is long stretches where he's in the groove and able to string 2 maybe sometimes 3 straight drives together where he has the offense humming.

There's no statistical measure as a whole that I'm going to cite as a necessity, because it's all dependent on other factors. If James Robinson never starts being used more, that's going to clearly hamper his ability to have some of the load off his shoulders and he's going to press more. If his favorite target ends up getting hurt, that's obviously going to reduce completion percentages, yards, and other statistical markers. It'd be cool if he rattled off three wins over the next three weeks and threw 10 TDs, no picks, 280 a game and had a 70% completion percentage, it'd be cool if he was the runaway ROTY as the season came to a conclusion, but not doing that isn't going to be some red flag on his game. It's going to be an evaluation of his play and his growth, not of his stats.

Trevor was drafted #1 because there was an expectation that he was going to be a franchise guy for 15 years; not because he was expected to have a great highlight reel in his first three games.

 

 

That's fair. I think Lawrence will likely end up being a disappointment, thought that before the Jaguars even got the number one pick. Not a full on bust, but going to be really hard to live up to that hype. I wonder how Jags fans would feel if he ended up giving them what Andrew Luck gave the Colts? Playoffs, playoff wins, no super bowls, short career and now looking to be in QB limbo. To me - and this might just be me - when a player has that much hype, that'd be disappointing for me. Obviously Luck was a really good player, but I'd have expected more success overall. And seeing that Wilson came from the same draft would really be rubbing salt in that wound right now.

 

I tend to root for the Jaguars and I'd happily admit I'm wrong if he proves me wrong.

Edited by FrantikRam
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On 9/25/2021 at 7:51 AM, notthatbluestuff said:

Sorry, just adding to the general pattern emerging on the forum. 

Lawrence has never had to face adversity in his entire career, with wins handed to him week after week on an elite program. Now he's with a dumpster fire of a franchise and doesn't know what to do. What use is a guy that's used to winning when he's on a perpetually losing team? 

Fellas, is it a bad idea to draft good players?

Edited by sp6488
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On 9/28/2021 at 12:35 PM, DigInBoys said:

Honestly, when you’re a lower tier team with a rookie qb why throw them into the fire as a starter?

Usually these teams have bad o lines and you’re risking them getting beaten up. Get a placeholder qb for a year and let the rookie learn from the sidelines.

Our online hasn't really given up much sacks(5).   Not sure on the number of qb hits but he really has minimized the hits and he's had 1 real dirty hit on him(looking right at you dremont for your hatred of your ex college coach).  

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On 9/28/2021 at 9:35 AM, DigInBoys said:

Honestly, when you’re a lower tier team with a rookie qb why throw them into the fire as a starter?

Usually these teams have bad o lines and you’re risking them getting beaten up. Get a placeholder qb for a year and let the rookie learn from the sidelines.

They had that in gardener minishew who should’ve started the whole season to let Lawrence sit back and see how coaches and players act and react to various situations over a whole season in the NFL to be equipped with that knowledge his next season. This is a big part of what allowed Mahomes to dominate his sophomore season he’s highly intelligent and got to just be a fly on the wall for a whole year and mentally map out what he should be doing in all of the same situations 

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On 9/28/2021 at 6:35 PM, DigInBoys said:

Honestly, when you’re a lower tier team with a rookie qb why throw them into the fire as a starter?

Usually these teams have bad o lines and you’re risking them getting beaten up. Get a placeholder qb for a year and let the rookie learn from the sidelines.

I wouldn't even draft a QB to begin with. Now you are hoping Lawrence can get out of a bad situation like Manning, is as good as him, Jags can attract a HOF coach and draft a couple of HOF weapons.

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30 minutes ago, DirtyDez said:

Half the teams in the league would trade their current QB for Trevor Lawrence including the teams with rookie QB’s (maybe NE keeps Mac).

I'd bet that BB would gladly trade Mac for Trevor.  I wouldn't dream of trading Trevor for any of the other rookie QB's or for the majority of the veteran starters in the league, for that matter.  He is going through some rookie struggles as he gets acclimated to a new league, but he's going to be a great one.

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5 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I'd bet that BB would gladly trade Mac for Trevor.  I wouldn't dream of trading Trevor for any of the other rookie QB's or for the majority of the veteran starters in the league, for that matter.  He is going through some rookie struggles as he gets acclimated to a new league, but he's going to be a great one.

He could get ruined by the Jags but as an individual talent he is tough to top and shouldn't get traded for almost anyone.

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Just now, SBLIII said:

He could get ruined by the Jags but as an individual talent he is tough to top and shouldn't get traded for almost anyone.

I'm hopeful that the Jags won't ruin him.  Things are getting better each week, and I can envision a situation where they will start winning some games in the second half of the season.  They do have some talent, and unless there is something big brewing with Urban that hasn't come to light, I think some of these "problems" have been overblown.  The players seem to have bought into his system and they are trying hard to improve together as a team.

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