Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

[pwny]

14 hours ago, Dome said:

I think one of the biggest concerns you have  with a rookie being thrown to the wolves is that they’ll shatter their ego and develop bad habits.

Glass half full side of me says Lawrence understands this is a learning year on a bad team, not putting to much mental or emotional stock into a good or bad play might be exactly what you want from him right now.

@pwny notice any odd body language with Lawrence?

 

No. He shows emotion when he makes a bad throw or a receiver doesn’t catch the ball, but then gets back to it; is actively talking with players and coaches on the sideline, initiating the conversations and doesn’t seem heated. He’ll joke around with players before practice, but then from every video of practice, he flips the switch and gets down to business when it’s time to actually practice. Same thing in games as well.

The whole “body language” and the idea that he doesn’t have the desire to make it comes from a single interview where people took a single sentence out of context. He said that he doesn’t feel he has a chip on his shoulder to prove that he’s great at football because football doesn’t define him as a man. He expressed that he loves football, he’s deeply passionate about it, but that he doesn’t need football to satiate some hole in his mental health through the level of success he has in it. He explained that he defines his value by what he’s able to bring to the communities he’s a part of, and that he is blessed to have a family and support system that doesn’t require him to seek deep personal validation from a game. He then went on to explain that he wants to be great at football because he loves football; he loves the community, the brotherhood, he loves that he can push himself and test the limits of what he can achieve, and that football is a love of his life. It was a very emotionally intelligent answer, particularly for a kid still in college, and extremely indicative of a kid who has a far better grasp on life and the role one’s passions should play in their life than certainly the majority of players in the league. But then the single sentence “I don’t have a chip on my shoulder” was taken and ran with as a knock on him, because it was literally the only knock anyone could find on him as a prospect. Then all the instances of him being calm under pressure were then analyzed as if he was simply a guy who didn’t care; which is obviously not the case.

[Hunter2_1]

I've watched fleetingly. Immediate thoughts are physically gifted, throws a rocket if need be, but holds on too long and has bailed from clean pockets (my bug bear...)

Hearing that Jax's OL is about average is slightly concerning for me. 

Otherwise, give him time

[MikeT14]

Heinicke for Lawrence and a 2nd rounder. I'll call my people and set it up. 

[.Buzz]

4 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I've watched fleetingly. Immediate thoughts are physically gifted, throws a rocket if need be, but holds on too long and has bailed from clean pockets (my bug bear...)

Hearing that Jax's OL is about average is slightly concerning for me. 

Otherwise, give him time

My rebuttal for this is the WR corps. When you have no one gaining any separation at all what is he supposed to do? There’s legitimately tape/people posting clips of this happening over and over again weekly along with Urban saying the WRs are running incorrect routes/going to long or short on said routes. Doesn’t even get to the stat of him being near the top in dropped passes on “explosive plays”.

Not even trying to play the “excuse” card, I legitimately don’t know what he’s supposed to do.

[Hunter2_1]

5 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

My rebuttal for this is the WR corps. When you have no one gaining any separation at all what is he supposed to do? There’s legitimately tape/people posting clips of this happening over and over again weekly along with Urban saying the WRs are running incorrect routes/going to long or short on said routes. Doesn’t even get to the stat of him being near the top in dropped passes on “explosive plays”.

Not even trying to play the “excuse” card, I legitimately don’t know what he’s supposed to do.

Yeah, I'd believe you. Not exactly a flattering depth chart of receiving talent.

 

Although nextGen has clocked Shenault as having a 3.6 separation score, which is the same as they've given Cooper Kupp. Catches 63% of targets, which is roughly average to below average by the looks of it. The same as Waller and Dionte Johnson, for example. Arnold is roughly similar, and his separation score is above that of Kelce's, as is his catch %.

Not sure how they work out separation, but the stats are there

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation 

Otherwise it's pretty bleak

[.Buzz]

3 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Yeah, I'd believe you. Not exactly a flattering depth chart of receiving talent.

 

Although nextGen has clocked Shenault as having a 3.6 separation score, which is the same as they've given Cooper Kupp. Catches 63% of targets, which is roughly average to below average by the looks of it. The same as Waller and Dionte Johnson, for example. Arnold is roughly similar, and his separation score is above that of Kelce's, as is his catch %.

Not sure how they work out separation, but the stats are there

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation 

Otherwise it's pretty bleak

Dan Arnold unfortunately got hurt a couple weeks ago and is lost for the year now, but he was actually legitimately decent. I’ll give you that. Had some issues with short arming/dropping passes but I think he could actually be an ok TE1 next year.

[Dr A W Niloc]

     Those dismayed by Trevor's NFL performance were set up by the unanimous fluffing from talking heads.  Based on his relevant college stats he was a distant second/third with Zach Wilson (DVOA:39, PFF:33, FPPG:34), who has been at least as "disappointing".  Yes, Lawrence has a lightning fast release time (which NFL fans haven't seen much yet) and was first in screen yards but his ADoT, Turnover Worthy Play Rate, QBR, and adjusted completion rate were uninspiring.  2nd/3rd at his position in college, he would be projected to finish between 24th and 32nd among NFL QBs in 2021.  The supporting cast being what it is, he is at the lower end of expectations (DVOA:30th, PFF:32nd, FPPG:31st).

     Who could have guessed that the college QB who was 1st in adjusted completion rate, 1st in deep yards, 2nd in screen yards, 1st in receiver drop rate, 2nd in pressures/sacks, with a 2.51 second release time would be so good (DVOA:13th, PFF:13th) as a rookie pro?

[pwny]

53 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Yeah, I'd believe you. Not exactly a flattering depth chart of receiving talent.

 

Although nextGen has clocked Shenault as having a 3.6 separation score, which is the same as they've given Cooper Kupp. Catches 63% of targets, which is roughly average to below average by the looks of it. The same as Waller and Dionte Johnson, for example. Arnold is roughly similar, and his separation score is above that of Kelce's, as is his catch %.

Not sure how they work out separation, but the stats are there

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation 

Otherwise it's pretty bleak

NextGen Separation is the average number of yards between the receiving target and the next closest defender; charted solely on passes thrown to said receiver. Shenault has been tossed a bunch of screen passes that inflate those numbers. The inflation that screen passes give is the entire reason they refuse to chart separation for RBs, otherwise the top list would just be 40 different RBs. But for a WR; they chart all passes thrown to them.

And to further illustrate that this isn’t just fan shaded glasses giving this excuse, I will note that Shenault is the 60th leading receiver. And among WRs with at least 12 targets this season (one per game), Shenault is 118th in yards per target. If you bump that up to 24 targets (2 per game), he ranks 101st out of 113 qualified receivers. Bumped up to 36 (3 per game), he is 82nd of 88 qualified. If you go up to guys with 4 per game, he’s 61/64. That seems like a good place to stop, because 64 leaves a #1 and #2 for each team if divided evenly. So despite the fact that his catch% is 37th in that group — roughly average like you said — his yards per target is near the very bottom. The only other Jaguars receiver on that list is Marvin Jones, who qualifies at 60th; one slot above Shenault. His catch percentage is the 10th worst among that group.

So yeah, Shenault’s separation and catch percentage have both been hyper inflated by screens and swing passes in which he failed to make an impact with the ball.

Dan Arnold was a bright spot that many of us were solidly excited for. But he played 25% of the snaps he played this season for Carolina. And due to being a midseason trade who needed a bit of time to get acclimated to the playbook, he only played in the equivalent of 6 games for us before he got hurt. He’s a fun player who hopefully will have a positive impact for the team going forward, but he hasn’t exactly been a real support piece for Trevor this season.

[Blackstar12]

The few times I watched the Jags yesterday I kept seeing drop after drop and Lawrence running for his life.

[KhanYouDigIt]

3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I've watched fleetingly. Immediate thoughts are physically gifted, throws a rocket if need be, but holds on too long and has bailed from clean pockets (my bug bear...)

Hearing that Jax's OL is about average is slightly concerning for me. 

Otherwise, give him time

If he had open receivers and holding onto the ball, that would be a problem. Unfortunately we don’t have anyone that can win 1v1 and we don’t scheme anyone open.

And I honestly don’t see him bailing from clean pockets. He stands in the pocket and goes through his progressions. If nothing is there, he will make something happen with his feet. His pocket presence is damn good. 
 

I can’t judge him until they surround him with some weapons. Treadwell is his #1 WR and Carlos Hyde has turned into the #1 RB because the staff hates James Robinson.

[49ersfan]

If the main priority is to get Lawrence weapons, Jags need to get rid of Baalke. I'm not sure how his 2021 draft is looking so far. But with SF, he couldn't acquire offensive skill players at all. Our best skill players under his tenure were players he inherited such as Frank Gore, Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree. They were acquired in 2005 & 2006 (Mike Nolan) & 2009 (Scot McCloughan) respectively 

He drafted AJ Jenkins with a 1st (0 career catches), and LaMichael James, Carlos Hyde & Vance McDonald with a 2nd. He also traded for Stevie Johnson which ended up being a bust.

I'm not gona fault him too much on the mid to late round picks since those are largely a crapshoot anyway. You would think over 7 drafts at least 1 of those guys would be decent though. Those picks consisted of guys like Kyle Williams (he of the 2 muffed punts in the 2011 NFCCG), Ronald Johnson (over Stanford WR Doug Baldwin who played under Harbs the season before), Quinton Patton, DeAndre Smelter, Bruce Ellington, Blake Bell etc

His 3 best skill player acquisitions were Kendall Hunter (2011 4th rounder, was a solid backup RB to Gore) , Bruce Miller (2011 7th round FB) & trading a 2013 6th for WR Anquan Boldin. So its not a good track record...

[TecmoSuperJoe]

6 hours ago, pwny said:

No. He shows emotion when he makes a bad throw or a receiver doesn’t catch the ball, but then gets back to it; is actively talking with players and coaches on the sideline, initiating the conversations and doesn’t seem heated. He’ll joke around with players before practice, but then from every video of practice, he flips the switch and gets down to business when it’s time to actually practice. Same thing in games as well.

The whole “body language” and the idea that he doesn’t have the desire to make it comes from a single interview where people took a single sentence out of context. He said that he doesn’t feel he has a chip on his shoulder to prove that he’s great at football because football doesn’t define him as a man. He expressed that he loves football, he’s deeply passionate about it, but that he doesn’t need football to satiate some hole in his mental health through the level of success he has in it. He explained that he defines his value by what he’s able to bring to the communities he’s a part of, and that he is blessed to have a family and support system that doesn’t require him to seek deep personal validation from a game. He then went on to explain that he wants to be great at football because he loves football; he loves the community, the brotherhood, he loves that he can push himself and test the limits of what he can achieve, and that football is a love of his life. It was a very emotionally intelligent answer, particularly for a kid still in college, and extremely indicative of a kid who has a far better grasp on life and the role one’s passions should play in their life than certainly the majority of players in the league. But then the single sentence “I don’t have a chip on my shoulder” was taken and ran with as a knock on him, because it was literally the only knock anyone could find on him as a prospect. Then all the instances of him being calm under pressure were then analyzed as if he was simply a guy who didn’t care; which is obviously not the case.

The whole "chip on a shoulder" thing seems like such a bedtime story self fulfilling prophecy that only has merit when the results benefit the person who believes in such an ideal in the first place. Tom Brady is the one where this idea is most romanticized towards in the NFL. I feel like one could easily turn this on it's head and say that Tom is basically letting people live rent free in his head for 20 years, but because he wins, his way of being motivated is "right". When in reality, whatever gets you out of bed every day, whatever works is "right", and there is no universal yellow brick road for success. If you want to be a loud and angry bawse hog on the sidelines trying to fire up your teammates (Tom Brady) then do that if it works for you. If you want to be cool, calm and collected with a smile on your mug in the face of adversity (Joe Montana) then do that if it works for you. 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by TecmoSuperJoe

[.Buzz]

1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

If the main priority is to get Lawrence weapons, Jags need to get rid of Baalke. I'm not sure how his 2021 draft is looking so far. But with SF, he couldn't acquire offensive skill players at all. Our best skill players under his tenure were players he inherited such as Frank Gore, Vernon Davis & Michael Crabtree. They were acquired in 2005 & 2006 (Mike Nolan) & 2009 (Scot McCloughan) respectively 

He drafted AJ Jenkins with a 1st (0 career catches), and LaMichael James, Carlos Hyde & Vance McDonald with a 2nd. He also traded for Stevie Johnson which ended up being a bust.

I'm not gona fault him too much on the mid to late round picks since those are largely a crapshoot anyway. You would think over 7 drafts at least 1 of those guys would be decent though. Those picks consisted of guys like Kyle Williams (he of the 2 muffed punts in the 2011 NFCCG), Ronald Johnson (over Stanford WR Doug Baldwin who played under Harbs the season before), Quinton Patton, DeAndre Smelter, Bruce Ellington, Blake Bell etc

His 3 best skill player acquisitions were Kendall Hunter (2011 4th rounder, was a solid backup RB to Gore) , Bruce Miller (2011 7th round FB) & trading a 2013 6th for WR Anquan Boldin. So its not a good track record...

Urban Meyer is the coach. He has just as big of a hand in who we’ll be taking as Baalke does. Already spilled that our top 3 receivers on our board for the upcoming draft were his recruits at OSU (which were obviously Wilson, Olave, and likely Jameo Williams).

[notthatbluestuff]

Jags shut out in Nashville; Lawrence with 4 picks. 

[biggie.]

Not even Tom Brady could succeed in this toxic cesspool.