Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

[pwny]

2 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

I haven't watched much of Lawrence this year save for game highlights.

 

2 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

All I'm saying is he's not generational like we were led to believe.

You got that every single person was wrong about how good he’s going to be from the highlights of three games?

Well, okay. I guess that’s irrefutable proof.

[DigInBoys]

4 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Lawrence has screamed bust this entire time for many reasons IMO. 

Like what?

[DigInBoys]

Lawrence has had some good looking TD throws, but obviously also a lot of interceptions.

Doesn't seem fair to judge him in his first year as he hasn't looked totally great or totally inept.

[pwny]

51 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

I'd still take James Robinson over every RB Andrew Luck played with save for Marlon Mack. Definitely better than who he had early on.

And for this, sure. I would take James Robinson the player over those players as well. But James Robinson when only getting 5, 11, and 15 carries isn’t more valuable than having a balanced run games.

As the season goes on and Robinson is hopefully given more of the offense, yes he should have more value than those who Luck had as a rookie. But if you’re basing your judgement of Trevor on three whole games, it’s absolutely ridiculous to as as if the support given to him has been good simply because James Robinson exists instead of actually basing it on the support he’s had in those three games from James Robinson. 11 carry per game James Robinson is not the same value as 18 carry per game James Robinson. It’s less than 2/3 of the same player.

[FrantikRam]

1 hour ago, pwny said:

 

You got that every single person was wrong about how good he’s going to be from the highlights of three games?

Well, okay. I guess that’s irrefutable proof.

 

 

Thankfully not every single person actually thought he would be that good.

Irrefutable proof? This is a message board talking about a QB who has played three games. Of course it's not proof. Just my opinion. I'll happily admit that I'm wrong if he turns into a generational QB.

 

Btw, for him to live up to the hype, put some numbers to it. What would you need to see?

-stats?

-wins?

-Urban fired?

-upgrades to the supporting cast?

[BayRaider]

1 hour ago, pwny said:

 

You got that every single person was wrong about how good he’s going to be from the highlights of three games?

Well, okay. I guess that’s irrefutable proof.

This forum has the worst early hot takes ever. Lawrence will be fine. 

People have been spoiled with decent rookie QB seasons lately. Most rookie QB seasons are terrible. 

[BayRaider]

23 minutes ago, FrantikRam said:

 

 

Thankfully not every single person actually thought he would be that good.

Irrefutable proof? This is a message board talking about a QB who has played three games. Of course it's not proof. Just my opinion. I'll happily admit that I'm wrong if he turns into a generational QB.

 

Btw, for him to live up to the hype, put some numbers to it. What would you need to see?

-stats?

-wins?

-Urban fired?

-upgrades to the supporting cast?

I don’t think anyone thought Lawrence was automatically Peyton Manning. Lawrence was the most hyped up prospect in a long time because his insane floor. His floor is basically Top 15 QB. 

My prediction for Lawrence was the edge of the Top 10 most of his career in the 8-10 range. Which is still a damn good football player. I don’t think he’ll ever be “elite” but he’ll be near elite for over a decade. 

[pwny]

1 hour ago, FrantikRam said:

 

 

Thankfully not every single person actually thought he would be that good.

Irrefutable proof? This is a message board talking about a QB who has played three games. Of course it's not proof. Just my opinion. I'll happily admit that I'm wrong if he turns into a generational QB.

 

Btw, for him to live up to the hype, put some numbers to it. What would you need to see?

-stats?

-wins?

-Urban fired?

-upgrades to the supporting cast?

What would I need to see for him to live up to the hype? More than simply the highlights of three games, for sure. That’s the #1 thing, definitely. More than 3 games highlights, for sure. I’d say I’d need to see at least 4 games worth of highlights before I wanted to declare that the the largest consensus on a player in a decade was wrong. And if I really wanted to be crazy, I’d probably make sure I watched the whole of those games, and really took note of the places he was excelling and the places he was struggling. And maybe I’d go a full season and see how much those change and grow.

I know that’s crazy; waiting a whole season and watching that whole body of work before thinking I have the answer about a player when I could just fire off a reactionary take instead. But you don’t need to voice an opinion on everything, and you don’t need to voice those opinions on situations where you haven’t even see the whole body of work available.

Watch a Jaguars game before telling the fans of the Jaguars we are wrong about a player. Maybe a few of them.

Trevor manipulates the pocket better than any rookie I can remember. He makes effortless throws that many other guys in this league just cannot make. He has some issues with understanding the limits of what his arm can do at this level, like literally all new players to this league do, and as he’s trying to make plays with a subpar cast he’s testing those limits and learning the issues that come with those. As he learns his limits, gets more comfortable with the players around him and James Robinson is actually used to take some pressure off of him, those bad plays should start to reduce. If they don’t over time, then yeah there’s some problems. But it’s three weeks into his career; you take the good with the bad with a rookie on a team that’s one year removed from an all time bad roster. And you certainly don’t make declarations after just watching the highlights.

[FrantikRam]

8 hours ago, pwny said:

What would I need to see for him to live up to the hype? More than simply the highlights of three games, for sure. That’s the #1 thing, definitely. More than 3 games highlights, for sure. I’d say I’d need to see at least 4 games worth of highlights before I wanted to declare that the the largest consensus on a player in a decade was wrong. And if I really wanted to be crazy, I’d probably make sure I watched the whole of those games, and really took note of the places he was excelling and the places he was struggling. And maybe I’d go a full season and see how much those change and grow.

I know that’s crazy; waiting a whole season and watching that whole body of work before thinking I have the answer about a player when I could just fire off a reactionary take instead. But you don’t need to voice an opinion on everything, and you don’t need to voice those opinions on situations where you haven’t even see the whole body of work available.

Watch a Jaguars game before telling the fans of the Jaguars we are wrong about a player. Maybe a few of them.

Trevor manipulates the pocket better than any rookie I can remember. He makes effortless throws that many other guys in this league just cannot make. He has some issues with understanding the limits of what his arm can do at this level, like literally all new players to this league do, and as he’s trying to make plays with a subpar cast he’s testing those limits and learning the issues that come with those. As he learns his limits, gets more comfortable with the players around him and James Robinson is actually used to take some pressure off of him, those bad plays should start to reduce. If they don’t over time, then yeah there’s some problems. But it’s three weeks into his career; you take the good with the bad with a rookie on a team that’s one year removed from an all time bad roster. And you certainly don’t make declarations after just watching the highlights.

 

Wow man, relax. I've watched pieces of the games too, as I try to watch some of all the games. Fans of other teams usually aren't going to be able to watch all of another teams games. We still have opinions about other players though.

Baker took over a worse roster - 1-31 the prior two years. Chubb was pretty good but didn't start until later in the year.

So what would you need to see? The Jaguars offense is close enough to what Cleveland had in terms of talent that Lawrence being a better prospect than Baker should at least lead to Lawrence being somewhat successful.

So what would quantify a successful rookie season to you?

Edited September 28, 2021 by FrantikRam

[pwny]

3 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

Wow man, relax. I've watched pieces of the games too, as I try to watch some of all the games. Fans of other teams usually aren't going to be able to watch all of another teams games. We still have opinions about other players though.

Baker took over a worse roster - 1-31 the prior two years. Chubb was pretty good but didn't start until later in the year.

So what would you need to see? The Jaguars offense is close enough to what Cleveland had in terms of talent that Lawrence being a better prospect than Baker should at least lead to Lawrence being somewhat successful.

So what would quantify a successful rookie season to you?

Baker's team was not really worse than the Jags roster. They had two years of adding talent to a tear down. The Jags are at year 1 of doing so. Give or take, they’re probably roughly the same. And comparison's sake...

 

Here's Baker's first three starts of his NFL career:

Looks like Baker was pretty awful when he first got his chance to start too. And then as the season progressed and he got more comfortable, and his running game started actually being used effectively with Chubb, he turned it on and found his groove. It was his 4th start when he finally put together a good game across the length of the game and came out of it looking like a guy that was starting to get it. Kinda exactly what I've been saying we should be waiting to see with Trevor. So maybe we should chill out on the declarations of what Trevor is and isn't. Just maybe.

As for what I want to see from Trevor for a rookie season? Number one, again, is a full season. Every play. A true decent sample size of a brand new player to the league, not bits and pieces of three games. I want to see him continue to make the eye popping plays that he's making, I want to see him continue to manipulate the pocket and avoid sacks, and want to see him not look rattled, even when the pass rush is getting home a bunch. I want to see him develop chemistry with certain receivers over the course of the season to where we know who is worth retaining and who needs to be replaced. I'd like to see the coaching staff adjust and start to learn what does and doesn't work with this group, and call more consistent games, and when they'd do that, I'd like to see a reduction from him in the streaks of not good throws. I want to see him continue to learn what is and isn't a throw that he can make at this level and a reduction in those turnover worthy plays. I want to see him have games where there is long stretches where he's in the groove and able to string 2 maybe sometimes 3 straight drives together where he has the offense humming.

There's no statistical measure as a whole that I'm going to cite as a necessity, because it's all dependent on other factors. If James Robinson never starts being used more, that's going to clearly hamper his ability to have some of the load off his shoulders and he's going to press more. If his favorite target ends up getting hurt, that's obviously going to reduce completion percentages, yards, and other statistical markers. It'd be cool if he rattled off three wins over the next three weeks and threw 10 TDs, no picks, 280 a game and had a 70% completion percentage, it'd be cool if he was the runaway ROTY as the season came to a conclusion, but not doing that isn't going to be some red flag on his game. It's going to be an evaluation of his play and his growth, not of his stats.

Trevor was drafted #1 because there was an expectation that he was going to be a franchise guy for 15 years; not because he was expected to have a great highlight reel in his first three games.

[ronjon1990]

12 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I don’t think anyone thought Lawrence was automatically Peyton Manning. Lawrence was the most hyped up prospect in a long time because his insane floor. His floor is basically Top 15 QB. 

My prediction for Lawrence was the edge of the Top 10 most of his career in the 8-10 range. Which is still a damn good football player. I don’t think he’ll ever be “elite” but he’ll be near elite for over a decade. 

As with every player in reality, though, his floor is closer to 32 or worse than it is to top 15. 

 

[big_palooka]

12 hours ago, BayRaider said:

This forum has the worst early hot takes ever. Lawrence will be fine. 

People have been spoiled with decent rookie QB seasons lately. Most rookie QB seasons are terrible. 

Sucks he was drafted to a world class loser of an organization. I don't care how good you are as a prospect. Some places simply don't deserve nice things and don't know what to do with them when they get them.

[KhanYouDigIt]

4 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Sucks he was drafted to a world class loser of an organization. I don't care how good you are as a prospect. Some places simply don't deserve nice things and don't know what to do with them when they get them.

I think if any team deserved nice things for once, it’s the Jags lol

[Adrenaline_Flux]

28 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Sucks he was drafted to a world class loser of an organization. I don't care how good you are as a prospect. Some places simply don't deserve nice things and don't know what to do with them when they get them.

ah so that's why the Raiders left Oakland

[WizeGuy]

Change the thread title to"

'Jacksonville is looking like a bad spot for Trevor Lawrence'

I said it before the draft- but Fields, Lawrence, and Wilson are put into tough spots. I thought the Jets would be better, but they may not have chosen the right coach yet again. Mac and Lance are in the best environments to succeed.

That being said, it's only week two, and watching a young QB grow is rarely pretty. I'm sure Lawrence will be a good QB in this league, but can JAX provide the best environment for him to succeed? That's where I have my pause. I have the same view towards Chicago and NYJ. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by WizeGuy