2021 QB Rankings (by the numbers, FINAL)

[RandyMossIsBoss]

Did this last season, a snapshot look at various passing statistics, ratings, grades, etc. weighed equally to get a single number behind each QB's season. This ranking is purely based on the metrics mentioned below, this is not my own, or anybody's, actual QB ranking.

I will update the thread periodically through the season. At the moment I incorporate the following, but am open to adding more:

 

 

Passer Rating= completion %, Y/A, TD% and INT%

ANY/A= similar to passer rating but weighed differently + sacks and yards lost on sacks are added to the equation

DVOA= the outcome of every play is compared to the league average in that same situation, every box score factor possible is utilized. For QBs, DVOA does not include running, unlike QBR.

QBR= similar to DVOA, but with a touch of subjectivity that goes beyond box score (drops, bad plays that weren't fault of QB, etc.), and a clutch factor (more weight towards plays in situations deemed clutch)

PFF= every play is looked at and given a grade, the final grade is the cumulative score of every play normalized to a 0-100 scale

EPA + CPOE = EPA, expected points added, and CPOE, completion percentage over expected. This final number is arrived at using coefficients that best predict adjusted EPA/play in the future. EPA is central to both QBR and DVOA, but CPOE is uniquely used here. 

 

 

QBs included threw 130+ passes. SD= standard deviation. 

	QB	PR	QBR	PFF	DVOA	ANY/A	EPA/CPOE	Avg	SD
1	Aaron Rodgers	1	1	4	1	1	1	1.5	1.1
2	Tom Brady	8	2	1	2	5	5	3.8	2.4
3	Joe Burrow	2	12	2	16	2	2	6.0	5.8
4	Matthew Stafford	6	5	11	9	3	6	6.7	2.6
5	Justin Herbert	12	3	3	6	11	9	7.3	3.6
6	Dak Prescott	3	10	8	3	7	14	7.5	3.9
7	Patrick Mahomes	11	6	13	4	10	3	7.8	3.7
8	Kyler Murray	9	8	7	7	12	8	8.5	1.7
9	Kirk Cousins	4	16	5	8	4	15	8.7	5.0
10	Jimmy Garoppolo	10	15	17	5	6	4	9.5	5.0
11	Jameis Winston	7	4	19	10	8	11	9.8	4.7
12	Josh Allen	17	7	6	17	15	10	12.0	4.5
13	Russell Wilson	5	13	20	13	9	17	12.8	4.9
14	Derek Carr	15	14	15	12	13	16	14.2	1.3
15	Mac Jones	16	17	12	15	18	12	15.0	2.3
16	Teddy Bridgewater	13	24	21	11	17	7	15.5	5.8
17	Carson Wentz	14	11	23	18	14	22	17.0	4.4
18	Ryan Tannehill	21	9	9	31	25	13	18.0	8.3
19	Jalen Hurts	24	22	10	19	16	18	18.2	4.5
20	Tua Tagovailoa	20	20	25	20	21	19	20.8	2.0
21	Matt Ryan	19	25	16	24	20	23	21.2	3.1
22	Lamar Jackson	25	19	24	21	22	20	21.8	2.1
23	Jared Goff	18	30	31	22	23	27	25.2	4.6
24	Trevor Siemian	23	32	28	23	19	30	25.8	4.5
25	Daniel Jones	28	27	22	30	24	26	26.2	2.6
26	Mike White	35	18	39	14	31	21	26.3	9.2
27	Taylor Heinicke	27	29	33	25	29	24	27.8	3.0
28	Jacoby Brissett	30	21	14	35	35	33	28.0	7.9
29	Taysom Hill	34	26	18	29	30	34	28.5	5.5
30	Baker Mayfield	29	34	30	26	28	25	28.7	2.9
31	Davis Mills	22	33	36	27	26	32	29.3	4.7
32	Ben Roethlisberger	26	31	37	28	27	29	29.7	3.6
33	Tyler Huntley	33	23	26	32	38	28	30.0	4.9
34	Tyrod Taylor	32	28	35	37	34	31	32.8	2.9
35	Andy Dalton	31	37	27	34	33	36	33.0	3.3
36	Trevor Lawrence	37	35	32	33	32	37	34.3	2.1
37	Justin Fields	36	39	29	36	37	35	35.3	3.1
38	Sam Darnold	38	36	38	38	36	38	37.3	0.9
39	Zach Wilson	39	38	34	39	39	40	38.2	2.0
40	Mike Glennon	40	40	40	40	40	39	39.8	0.4

 

 

Tiers 1: Rodgers

Tier 2: Brady, Burrow, Herbert, Stafford, Mahomes, Dak

Tier 3: Cousins, Winston, Murray, Jimmy G, Josh Allen, Wilson, Carr, Bridgewater, Mac

Tier 4: Tannehill, Wentz, Hurts, Tua, Lamar, Matt Ryan,

Tier 5- Daniel Jones, Mike White, Goff. Siemian, Heinicke, Taysom, Mayfield, Brissett, Mills, Roethlisberger, Huntley

Tier 6- Dalton, Tyrod, Lawrence, Fields, Darnold, Wilson, Glennon

 

QBRank2021.xlsx

 

Edited January 12, 2022 by RandyMossIsBoss

[BigTrav]

[NYRaider]

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Kyler Murray

4. Matt Stafford

5. Tom Brady

6. Aaron Rodgers

7. Dak Prescott

8. Justin Herbert

9. Russell Wilson

10. Lamar Jackson

[Matts4313]

This is the best way to evaluate QBs imo. @RandyMossIsBoss should publish these as a regular thing on twitter/reddit/etc. Id follow him. 

[Blackstar12]

Wentz had no business playing at Tennessee. He looked more immobile than even Rivers lol.

[iknowcool]

Heinicke is so much fun to watch.  I'm rooting for him.  

[Tk3]

Good stuff

Obviously has the detriment of small sample size so early in the year, but will be very interesting to track over the course of the season

Have you considered a standard deviation column? Not sure how much it matters, but I'd argue that Kyler's top rankings being consistent across all criteria is more impressive than some other highly rated players who have big variances. PFF seems to be the biggest outlier (which I don't think its a problem, just notable)

I can't recall if I've watched a single Tannehill snap this season - but I'm curious what PFF sees in him that isn't showing up in these other advanced metrics.

[minutemancl]

1 minute ago, Tk3 said:

Good stuff

Obviously has the detriment of small sample size so early in the year, but will be very interesting to track over the course of the season

Have you considered a standard deviation column? Not sure how much it matters, but I'd argue that Kyler's top rankings being consistent across all criteria is more impressive than some other highly rated players who have big variances. PFF seems to be the biggest outlier (which I don't think its a problem, just notable)

I can't recall if I've watched a single Tannehill snap this season - but I'm curious what PFF sees in him that isn't showing up in these other advanced metrics.

He should not be ranked 2nd, but he is getting probably the least amount of help from his offense in the passing game that I've seen in a while.

[Awsi Dooger]

A lot of the obvious stuff is there, like Daniel Jones way up and Aaron Rodgers way down. I mentioned in the stats thread a couple of weeks ago that Jones suddenly was playing at 7.5 YPA level instead of his standard 6.6 range. Rodgers, on the other hand, is back to his lazy level from 2014 through 2019. He escaped that malaise only when Jordan Love was drafted...then somehow had the ignorance and audacity to complain about the best thing to happen to him in years. 

Ryan Tannehill always has certain people seeing things that aren't there. Anything with the greatest subjective input will deviate most from reality.

[Apparition]

I know that these ratings are often subjective and by no means tell the whole story, but holy hell, there can't be a person in the Steelers organization that doesn't feel like crying every time they consider how much money they're paying Roethlisberger this year.

[JAF-N72EX]

I know I may be alone on this, but outside of maybe 5 QB's I feel like the consistency of QB play has been on a down spiral for a couple of years now.  But its still early in the season too so....

[NYRaider]

7 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said:

A lot of the obvious stuff is there, like Daniel Jones way up and Aaron Rodgers way down. I mentioned in the stats thread a couple of weeks ago that Jones suddenly was playing at 7.5 YPA level instead of his standard 6.6 range. Rodgers, on the other hand, is back to his lazy level from 2014 through 2019. He escaped that malaise only when Jordan Love was drafted...then somehow had the ignorance and audacity to complain about the best thing to happen to him in years. 

Ryan Tannehill always has certain people seeing things that aren't there. Anything with the greatest subjective input will deviate most from reality.

I've watched a few Giants games this year and was shocked by how mobile DJ is, dude has wheels. 

[Bearerofnews]

Upping for the update..

[Ryan_W]

so much cement

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

So, uh, are we going to talk about Tannehill and PFF or nah?