2021 QB Rankings (by the numbers, FINAL)

[RandyMossIsBoss]

QBs included have at least 100 pass attempts, and are starters going forward. Major ranking movements since week 9 shown to the right. SD= standard deviation.    QB PR QBR PFF DVOA ANY/A EPA/CPOE Avg SD   1 Kyler Murray 1 5 5 1 2 1 2.5 1.8   2 Tom Brady 5 3 1 3 5 6 3.8 1.7   3 Kirk Cousins 3 7 2 2 3 9 4.3 2.7 +4 4 Matthew Stafford 4 1 16 4 1 5 5.2 5.1   5 Aaron Rodgers 2 4 13 7 4 2 5.3 3.8   6 Justin Herbert 11 2 3 8 10 14 8.0 4.3   7 Jimmy Garoppolo 9 6 20 6 6 4 8.5 5.3 +13 8 Dak Prescott 6 18 6 5 7 11 8.8 4.5   9 Josh Allen 13 8 11 17 11 7 11.2 3.3 +5 10 Derek Carr 14 14 12 10 8 17 12.5 2.9   11 Teddy Bridgewater 10 22 14 11 17 3 12.8 5.9   12 Patrick Mahomes 16 10 19 9 14 10 13.0 3.7 +7 13 Joe Burrow 7 20 8 24 13 8 13.3 6.5   14 Lamar Jackson 17 12 15 14 15 16 14.8 1.6   15 Mac Jones 15 19 4 20 21 12 15.2 5.9 +7 16 Carson Wentz 12 11 22 16 12 20 15.5 4.2   17 Russell Wilson 8 23 17 12 9 24 15.5 6.3 -15 18 Jalen Hurts 22 17 9 13 16 18 15.8 4.1   19 Tua Tagovailoa 20 9 18 21 20 13 16.8 4.4 +4 20 Ryan Tannehill 25 13 7 26 27 15 18.8 7.6   21 Matt Ryan 23 16 10 23 24 23 19.8 5.1 -10 22 Taylor Heinicke 19 21 26 15 22 21 20.7 3.3 +5 23 Baker Mayfield 21 26 24 18 18 22 21.5 2.9 -7 24 Ben Roethlisberger 18 24 32 19 23 25 23.5 4.6   25 Tyrod Taylor 28 15 28 25 26 19 23.5 4.9   26 Trevor Siemian 24 27 23 22 19 27 23.7 2.8   27 Daniel Jones 26 25 21 27 25 26 25.0 1.9   28 Jared Goff 27 31 29 29 28 28 28.7 1.2   29 Sam Darnold 30 28 27 30 30 29 29.0 1.2   30 Trevor Lawrence 29 29 31 28 29 31 29.5 1.1   31 Justin Fields 31 32 25 32 31 30 30.2 2.4   32 Zach Wilson 32 30 30 31 32 32 31.2 0.9     QBRank2021.xlsx

[RandyMossIsBoss]

On 11/19/2021 at 6:28 PM, Matts4313 said:

@RandyMossIsBoss => Hey, I was thinking that maybe give some thought to ELO. Its been then #1 factor in winning MVP. 

The only problem is I dont think its easy to find a ranking list. Maybe by next season.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/quarterbacks/

Interesting number but because it weighs previous performance and is not strictly 2021 I think they'd be out of place.

[Blackstar12]

PFF still has Tannehill at 7?

[NeptunePenguins]

Here is how I rank the QBs based on my own calculations. The higher the better the QB. 

 

 

Tom Brady: 50,000 The only QB that hasn't either missed a game or has had a bad game in which they were shutdown almost completely. An elite season.

Aaron Rodgers: 30,000 Has missed a game and has had one really bad game with a couple of weak games. Is still about elite.

Mathew Stafford: 1500 Has had some monster games, but has sucked recently.

Kyler Murray: 1000 Has been okay but is far behind the other guys and has missed a lot of games. Very good but not elite.

Justin Herbert: 500 Is not quite elite yet, but will be in the future.

Josh Allen: 300 Still very good, but has struggled at random times. 

Dak: 50 Has been awful as of recently. Still a good QB.

Derek Carr: 49 Good QB

Kirk Cousins: 10 Dead average for a QB

Patrick Mahomes: 4 One good game since September. Has regressed to average play.

Baker Mayfield: 1 About average

 

 

 

 

[Forge]

I feel like this needs to separate epa (or epa/play) and cpoe. I've never understood why people use that as a composite

[Bearerofnews]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

I feel like this needs to separate epa (or epa/play) and cpoe. I've never understood why people use that as a composite

I hate cpoe

[SBLIII]

13 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

I hate cpoe

Mac is high in CPOE therefore I love it.

[Bearerofnews]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

Mac is high in CPOE therefore I love it.

I still don't know how CPOE works. How do they assess if it should of been a completion and doesn't CPOE not adjust for drops.  

[RandyMossIsBoss]

QBs included have at least 150 pass attempts, or are starters going forward. Major ranking movements since week 11 shown to the right. SD= standard deviation. 

	QB	PR	QBR	PFF	DVOA	ANY/A	EPA/CPOE	Avg	SD
1	Kyler Murray	1	4	8	1	2	1	2.8	2.5
2	Tom Brady	5	2	1	3	6	3	3.3	1.7
3	Kirk Cousins	2	9	2	2	3	8	4.3	3.0
4	Aaron Rodgers	4	5	7	6	4	2	4.7	1.6
5	Matthew Stafford	3	3	14	7	1	6	5.7	4.2
6	Justin Herbert	10	1	4	8	10	13	7.7	4.0
7	Jimmy Garoppolo	8	11	19	5	5	4	8.7	5.2
8	Josh Allen	11	8	9	11	9	7	9.2	1.5
9	Dak Prescott	7	17	5	4	7	15	9.2	5.0
10	Derek Carr	13	12	11	9	8	14	11.2	2.1
11	Mac Jones	12	14	6	15	15	9	11.8	3.3	+4
12	Joe Burrow	9	18	3	24	13	10	12.8	6.7
13	Tua Tagovailoa	15	7	13	13	18	11	12.8	3.4	+6
14	Patrick Mahomes	17	10	20	10	14	12	13.8	3.7
15	Carson Wentz	14	6	21	16	11	18	14.3	4.9
16	Teddy Bridgewater	16	21	17	12	17	5	14.7	5.1	-5
17	Russell Wilson	6	22	18	19	12	20	16.2	5.5
18	Taylor Heinicke	18	16	24	14	20	16	18.0	3.3	+4
19	Ryan Tannehill	26	13	10	27	26	17	19.8	6.8
20	Jalen Hurts	27	19	12	20	21	21	20.0	4.4
21	Lamar Jackson	23	15	23	22	23	19	20.8	3.0	-7
22	Matt Ryan	21	20	15	23	24	22	20.8	2.9
23	Baker Mayfield	20	27	25	18	16	23	21.5	3.9
24	Ben Roethlisberger	19	23	32	17	19	24	22.3	5.0
25	Daniel Jones	25	24	22	25	25	25	24.3	1.1
26	Andy Dalton	28	25	16	28	28	26	25.2	4.3
27	Trevor Siemian	24	30	26	21	22	29	25.3	3.3
28	Jared Goff	22	31	29	26	27	28	27.2	2.8
29	Tyrod Taylor	29	26	31	32	31	27	29.3	2.2
30	Sam Darnold	31	28	28	30	30	30	29.5	1.1
31	Trevor Lawrence	30	29	30	29	29	32	29.8	1.1
32	Justin Fields	32	32	27	33	32	31	31.2	2.0
33	Zach Wilson	33	33	33	31	33	33	32.7	0.7

QBRank2021.xlsx

[Hunter2_1]

PFF drop Mac by a couple spots, but literally every other metric bumps him up LOL

[incognito_man]

This is effectively the MVP thread. 

Brady has it just about in the bag unless Rodgers goes on a year and secures the #1 seed and puts up some chunk volume numbers to close the gap over the next 5 weeks.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

I fully support Lamar dropping 7 spots.

[Tk3]

Imagine being a regular NFL Gen poster who refuses to acknowledge Cousins and Jimmy as good QBs

[Forge]

1 hour ago, Tk3 said:

Imagine being a regular NFL Gen poster who refuses to acknowledge Cousins and Jimmy as good QBs

I mean, I've watched Jimmy G play pretty much every game since he came to SF, and I don't know if I'd call him "good".  He's definitely the poster child of why the eye test is still important. Semantics maybe in terms of calling him "good"...I think he's a competent, though highly limited QB in an excellent system and he can hang along for the ride of a good team. I'd consider him in that third tier of Quarterbacks that runs from like 12 - 19...and just like that tier, he can have some very good games, some very bad ones. Hell, he can have seasons like that. He can look like one of the better QBs in the league, and he can quite seriously look like the bottom of the list.  

But it's most definitely not just people in NFL Gen who don't think he's very good. He's one of those guys who seems to be viewed worse the more in depth you watch, which is why a lot of the "watch the tape" guys don't like him all that much. I think when you merge the analytics with the eye test you get a guy who is mostly fine...there are people who are overly reliant on eye test who think he's terrible and go too far that way, but if you're overly reliant on the analytics you're probably far too high on him. You kind of have to merge the two. What's funny is that you kind of see it in those grades - the analytics love him. DVOA & EPA he's up at the top. PFF doesn't like him at all and that's almost entirely eye test and QBR is warm on him

The problem is that people far too often don't appreciate how quicky and how far QB play drops off. People see Jimmy make a really bad throw or two (like he did Seattle) and the reaction is "oh, he's the worst...oh, he's a bottom 5 qb" and you don't realize that you have guys like Big Ben, or Baker, or a bunch of others starting games and they aaaaaaaall make really bad throws and decisions. 

I don't think he's going to get even a conditional first round pick this year...my guess is a second and maybe a conditional pick the following year. Report was the best offer that came in this year was a third....and this after Carson Wentz got a first + when he was arguably the worst QB in the league. 

[LieutenantGains]

14 hours ago, incognito_man said:

This is effectively the MVP thread. 

Brady has it just about in the bag unless Rodgers goes on a year and secures the #1 seed and puts up some chunk volume numbers to close the gap over the next 5 weeks.

Yeah this is close to being sealed. If Brady beats Allen and the Bills while putting up 3+ TD's and 300+ yards it may be over. I just don't know if Rodgers will put up huge volume numbers. I could see him ending with around a 35 TD/5 INT 4200 yards line. But if he finishes with the same record as Brady or just one more win is that enough to offset a likely 10+ TD and 800ish yard difference? I know Brady has more INT's but the passer ratings will be close.