Packers finalizing details for LB Jaylon Smith signing

[vegas492]

PFF is not the end all, be all, but let's dive into some numbers.

2020 Jaylon Smith.  

54.2 overall.  47.1 run score on 472 snaps.  64.1 pass rush on 73 pass rush snaps.  64.4 coverage score on 538 coverage snaps.

2021 Jaylon SMith.

69.5 overall (13th best).  37.4 run score on 35 run snaps.  51.1 pass rush on 10 snaps.  82.2 score on coverage on 103 coverage snaps.

Cowboys trusted him more in coverage than they did against the run.  His score over two years supports the notion that he is a plus in coverage.  While being a liability in the run game.

I think they played him as the Mike, his fills were awful.  I think Campbell is our Mike, and that isn't changing.  Maybe Smith will be better at the Will where he can chase and tackle more.

There is hope with this signing, but I don't really expect to see him in heavy run sets that much.

[NFLGURU]

Jaylon Smith will wear #9 for the Packers.  The same number as his former Notre Dame teammate and Packer Legend DeShone Kizer.

[Shanedorf]

ILB coach:

"Olivadotti said there will be differences in what Jaylon Smith is asked to do here than in Dallas. He said it might be easier to prepare him for a game than teaching him the whole playbook as he would in training camp. But it also may limit the ways they use him."

[Old Guy]

10 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

ILB coach:

"Olivadotti said there will be differences in what Jaylon Smith is asked to do here than in Dallas. He said it might be easier to prepare him for a game than teaching him the whole playbook as he would in training camp. But it also may limit the ways they use him."

That makes sense to me. It also will allow him to think less and play faster. The question is will he be active this week? 

[MrBobGray]

I tried earlier today to sit down and watch some film of Smith, and realized I do not have the kind of time I would need for this to be a good idea.  So I'm basing my opinion of him based on like, a quarter of football and a bunch of twitter rando's posting All-22 footage.  But the one thing it seems we all pretty much agree on is he struggles with the instinctive part of the game in a significant way.  My personal take is that he struggles to process information; I didn't watch enough to determine if that was a schematic thing (being asked to do more tasks than he's capable of processing) or a personal thing (he can't process even a single task fast enough).  I'd bet that Green Bay is gambling that it's a schematic thing; if they can simplify his playbook, plug him into a spot and give him a single defined role he'll be capable of excelling, or at least performing.  The Cowboys clearly believe otherwise, or that he's simply not good enough at his role in Quinn's defense to be worth paying that kind of money. 

There's no way to fault Gute in this; for the money they're paying him, this isn't even a gamble, it's playing with house money.  He'd be stupid not to give it a shot, especially as Smith is a big plus in the locker room I guess.  But linebackers without instincts are like running backs without vision: at the end of the day no amount of athleticism really makes up for not being able to execute the basics of your job.  Most often I find that guys who struggle with the basics simply don't make it in the league; at this point in a playing career you've had enough experience and coaching that you either have that part of the game or you don't.  You can make up for the basics with pure athletic talent all the way through college, but the game is just too fast in the NFL to not at least be competent at the essential parts of your position.  No matter how fast you are, if you can't see it it'll close before you get there, whichever side of the ball you're on.

[MrBobGray]

****, I actually fully forgot to give my thoughts on his fit here, which was why I started writing a response in the first place.  This RSO is a real trip.

Anyway, I do think this is actually not a bad defense for him; my understanding is that Barry's defense doesn't place a lot of pressure on their linebackers to read and fill, although someone give me the facts if I'm wrong, this isn't a confident understanding.  But playing a five man front as much as they do means he's either on the edge which is much simpler in general or he's playing a single gap aggressively; the need for him to stack his man and shed or scrape to the hole should be about as low as you can hope for.  Also, the safeties playing closer and with run fits meaning there's always going to be a lot of action around the ball carrier, because Savage and Amos are both way above average in terms of reaction time and speed to the play.  He doesn't need to play hero ball here, just fill his gap aggressively and rally, and I think he could excel at that if they can just get him to play decisively.

Edited October 8, 2021 by MrBobGray

[NFLGURU]

8 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

I tried earlier today to sit down and watch some film of Smith, and realized I do not have the kind of time I would need for this to be a good idea.  So I'm basing my opinion of him based on like, a quarter of football and a bunch of twitter rando's posting All-22 footage.  But the one thing it seems we all pretty much agree on is he struggles with the instinctive part of the game in a significant way.  My personal take is that he struggles to process information; I didn't watch enough to determine if that was a schematic thing (being asked to do more tasks than he's capable of processing) or a personal thing (he can't process even a single task fast enough).  I'd bet that Green Bay is gambling that it's a schematic thing; if they can simplify his playbook, plug him into a spot and give him a single defined role he'll be capable of excelling, or at least performing.  The Cowboys clearly believe otherwise, or that he's simply not good enough at his role in Quinn's defense to be worth paying that kind of money. 

There's no way to fault Gute in this; for the money they're paying him, this isn't even a gamble, it's playing with house money.  He'd be stupid not to give it a shot, especially as Smith is a big plus in the locker room I guess.  But linebackers without instincts are like running backs without vision: at the end of the day no amount of athleticism really makes up for not being able to execute the basics of your job.  Most often I find that guys who struggle with the basics simply don't make it in the league; at this point in a playing career you've had enough experience and coaching that you either have that part of the game or you don't.  You can make up for the basics with pure athletic talent all the way through college, but the game is just too fast in the NFL to not at least be competent at the essential parts of your position.  No matter how fast you are, if you can't see it it'll close before you get there, whichever side of the ball you're on.

They gotta find out if his slow reaction is scheme related, medically related or a processing issue.  The guy was Pro Bowler in 2019.  Dont think he fell off the table that fast, but we'll see.

[Green19]

59 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

That makes sense to me. It also will allow him to think less and play faster. The question is will he be active this week? 

Agreed, he needs to be sheltered. Just give him one read and let him just play. Campbell can be the workhorse.

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

I tried earlier today to sit down and watch some film of Smith, and realized I do not have the kind of time I would need for this to be a good idea.  So I'm basing my opinion of him based on like, a quarter of football and a bunch of twitter rando's posting All-22 footage.  But the one thing it seems we all pretty much agree on is he struggles with the instinctive part of the game in a significant way.  My personal take is that he struggles to process information; I didn't watch enough to determine if that was a schematic thing (being asked to do more tasks than he's capable of processing) or a personal thing (he can't process even a single task fast enough).  I'd bet that Green Bay is gambling that it's a schematic thing; if they can simplify his playbook, plug him into a spot and give him a single defined role he'll be capable of excelling, or at least performing.  The Cowboys clearly believe otherwise, or that he's simply not good enough at his role in Quinn's defense to be worth paying that kind of money. 

There's no way to fault Gute in this; for the money they're paying him, this isn't even a gamble, it's playing with house money.  He'd be stupid not to give it a shot, especially as Smith is a big plus in the locker room I guess.  But linebackers without instincts are like running backs without vision: at the end of the day no amount of athleticism really makes up for not being able to execute the basics of your job.  Most often I find that guys who struggle with the basics simply don't make it in the league; at this point in a playing career you've had enough experience and coaching that you either have that part of the game or you don't.  You can make up for the basics with pure athletic talent all the way through college, but the game is just too fast in the NFL to not at least be competent at the essential parts of your position.  No matter how fast you are, if you can't see it it'll close before you get there, whichever side of the ball you're on.

Great summary.  In any of your research did you find tape at some point in his career - college and pro - where he was capable of mentally processing the game?  If so, then we must ask, why the sudden decline in this facet?  Maybe it’s medically related (CTE, brain tumor, heck, I don’t know)?  If he’s always struggled to mentally process, then he is what he is and GB will have to play within his limited strengths.

[PossibleCabbage]

2 hours ago, NFLGURU said:

Jaylon Smith will wear #9 for the Packers.

He's lucky that #9 was available since #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #10, #12, #13, #14, #15, #17, and #18 are all unavailable.

[Arthur Penske]

7 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

 

Not surprising, but getting him for less than a million is a good deal.

Told ya he’s a big MLF guy  @Norm

[coachbuns]

5 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

guys who are playing well and following the assignments don't get cut midseason.  Even from questionable organizations.

 

If you're expecting much more than what we've seen from oren burks, you're going to be disappointed

And if he turns out to be a bargain for $ 800,000, I very much expect you to be the 1st one to eat crow and not be disappointed in him again.  

[Arthur Penske]

 

[ACO]

3 hours ago, NFLGURU said:

Jaylon Smith will wear #9 for the Packers.  The same number as his former Notre Dame teammate and Packer Legend DeShone Kizer.

Never had a doubt. That is his number.

[Green19]

1 hour ago, PossibleCabbage said:

He's lucky that #9 was available since #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #10, #12, #13, #14, #15, #17, and #18 are all unavailable.

I’m sure Rodgers would of sold him 12 for a million....