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Week 5 Overreactions: The "Has the NFL figured out Patrick Mahomes?" Edition


AFlaccoSeagulls

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3 hours ago, childofpudding said:

Pollard 4.7 YPC? Lol. Three rushes of 0 yards, 3 yards, and then 11 yards on the last meaningless play of the game. Wow, 4.7 YPC, so explosive!

Skippy brought up the Ravens run D as a measuring stick, not to say the TB run defense was GOAT. Try to follow along and make less ridiculous takes like Pollard 4.7 YPC on 3 rushes. Hahaha.

TB hasn't faced any good run offenses except for Dallas, which is 2nd in rushing. They allowed 3.3ypc against them, which would be best in the league. Still a lot to prove for sure, and like Flacco said, it's a different era. TB currently facing about 15 rushes per game while Baltimore faced more than 20.

 

1. Yeah Skippy brought it up as a measuring stick, yet he also responded to the initial comment that stated it probably WASN’T an overreaction that the Bucs run D was the GOAT… @SkippyX then responded and inserted the fact that the Ravens D faced three top 10 rushing attacks within their division that season to accomplish their feat.

Hence my response that they’ve played far less games, haven’t played anybody (as in comparison to the Ravens schedule of top run offenses), and their own below average pass defense in a passing league makes it foolish to not attack the path of least resistance, which the Ravens run defense didn’t have the benefit of teams doing (because their pass defense was also very stout.)

Had the poster simply called it an overreaction, I wouldn’t have felt compelled to respond and perhaps Skippy wouldn’t have been as compelled to post the Ravens run defensive stats as a measuring gauge either.

2. I literally stated all of what you said in your last paragraph and all of what @AFlaccoSeagullsstated as my reasoning for the fact such claims should be tempered.

So as opposed to assuming I’ve somehow claimed Pollard shredded the Bucs run D or something, how about you simply ask for confirmation as to what was meant, and not respond in an entitled overreaction fashion?

On the season Pollard is averaging 1.1 ypc more than Zeke, over the last three seasons Zeke has averaged 4.4 YPC to 5.1 YPC for Pollard. The additional explosiveness that Pollard brings to the Dallas backfield has been a noted topic by many sports analysts over the last few seasons as well. So claiming that Pollard provides a more explosive runner over Zeke, isn’t something to “keep up on” it’s something that’s been discussed quite consistently over the last few seasons by many. Zeke is still the better runner overall, but Pollard has been more explosive.

3. I mentioned the sample size was small. Pollard ran 3x and ran for 0, 3, and 11… You’re discrediting his run because it came on the final play of the game in garbage time. Yet a) do you think the Ravens, Steelers, and Eagles historic run defenses never had garbage time runs and/or drives impact their historic numbers? All of this becomes relevant when we start to bring up GOATs?

And b) Pollards rushing sample size was small enough that you can’t say that his runs of 0 and 3 were the norm or if instead his 11 yard run might’ve been a frequent enough occurrence. Which is the point I made, teams aren’t encouraged to continue to attack the Bucs run defense for a multitude of reasons already listed.

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Here is the other huge difference between the teams.

The other 2021 teams score almost at will on the Bucs with passing because the secondary is a huge mess. 2000 Baltimore killed you in the air as well.

Cincy ran for 4 yards against the Ravens and scored 0

New England ran for -1 against the Bucs and scored 17

I think the Jets had a big day passing against them in December and that was about it.

 

So the key numbers are not going to be total yards as much as that 2.7 yards per carry.

 

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47 minutes ago, Magnifico said:

Sam Darnold has regressed back way beyond the mean and will be the reason the Panthers don't make the playoffs.

I mean, he was never an elite QB and his best weapon is out with a hamstring injury - what were you expecting?

Sam Darnold is the sum of all his parts, and while Chuba Hubbard is a good RB - he's not a Christian McCaffrey.

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9 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

FYI, Tampa is giving up an awesome 2.9 ypc against the run so beating or reaching 2.7 is not out of the question.

Why would it continue to go down? You need to be well ahead of pace so you can afford the logical late season reversion or one or two bad games. Plus deeper in the season it becomes hellish to make up those two tenths. They need several nearby games allowing nothing or next to nothing to end up at 2.7

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53 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

1. Yeah Skippy brought it up as a measuring stick, yet he also responded to the initial comment that stated it probably WASN’T an overreaction that the Bucs run D was the GOAT… @SkippyX then responded and inserted the fact that the Ravens D faced three top 10 rushing attacks within their division that season to accomplish their feat.

Hence my response that they’ve played far less games, haven’t played anybody (as in comparison to the Ravens schedule of top run offenses), and their own below average pass defense in a passing league makes it foolish to not attack the path of least resistance, which the Ravens run defense didn’t have the benefit of teams doing (because their pass defense was also very stout.)

Had the poster simply called it an overreaction, I wouldn’t have felt compelled to respond and perhaps Skippy wouldn’t have been as compelled to post the Ravens run defensive stats as a measuring gauge either.

2. I literally stated all of what you said in your last paragraph and all of what @AFlaccoSeagullsstated as my reasoning for the fact such claims should be tempered.

So as opposed to assuming I’ve somehow claimed Pollard shredded the Bucs run D or something, how about you simply ask for confirmation as to what was meant, and not respond in an entitled overreaction fashion?

On the season Pollard is averaging 1.1 ypc more than Zeke, over the last three seasons Zeke has averaged 4.4 YPC to 5.1 YPC for Pollard. The additional explosiveness that Pollard brings to the Dallas backfield has been a noted topic by many sports analysts over the last few seasons as well. So claiming that Pollard provides a more explosive runner over Zeke, isn’t something to “keep up on” it’s something that’s been discussed quite consistently over the last few seasons by many. Zeke is still the better runner overall, but Pollard has been more explosive.

3. I mentioned the sample size was small. Pollard ran 3x and ran for 0, 3, and 11… You’re discrediting his run because it came on the final play of the game in garbage time. Yet a) do you think the Ravens, Steelers, and Eagles historic run defenses never had garbage time runs and/or drives impact their historic numbers? All of this becomes relevant when we start to bring up GOATs?

And b) Pollards rushing sample size was small enough that you can’t say that his runs of 0 and 3 were the norm or if instead his 11 yard run might’ve been a frequent enough occurrence. Which is the point I made, teams aren’t encouraged to continue to attack the Bucs run defense for a multitude of reasons already listed.

You mentioning Pollard's 4.7ypc (over 3 rushes) was an implication that TB's run D isn't as great as it may seem. It was lame, just own it. There are better arguments to make - weak run offenses faced aside from Dallas, their pass D being so bad that teams just default to throwing vs. them, etc.

Look, Thurman Thomas averaged 8ypc against the vaunted 2000 Ravens D in this game: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200009170mia.htm . Explosive!

Edited by childofpudding
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29 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Im talking about the up coming years. im not talking only about right now. This 2022 draft is going to have a similar situation like 2019 and 2013 which is a weak qb class and big ben is looking flat you think hes going to be able to stick around long enough for them to find a replacement for his future? This league is qb driven and if you dont have a franchise qb then you will struggle and steelers will be right there. 

1. Have to apologize, I edited my post. Didn’t mean to say it was foolish. Mean to say “it’d be foolish”, obviously different connotations there. Thought I typed the latter.😞

2. In terms of the meat of your post, I just think a coach like Tomlin will be able to recruit a new QB or inspire a trade option to come in once they have the money to pay said QB.

The Aaron Rodgers rumors are already there for example. 
 

That and the idea of a weak QB class means little to me… just because these draft analysts have consistently seemed to misevaluate/underrate the QB talents in drafts. Mahomes slipped to 10th and that wasn’t a big deal, Watson fell to 12th, Lamar fell to 32nd and many called him a RB, Herbert was considered a big gamble selection, etc.

So the Steelers having perhaps a top 12 pick after this season and acquiring a QB that some analysts slept on but that had some inspiring tools that they develop into a top 12ish QB is something that I find to be very much within the realm of likely. They took a trash Rudolph to a .500 season, and as bad as this upcoming QB class, I doubt anyone they draft in round 1 could be any worse than Rudolph. They’d then have the money to invest in their OL situation to surround said rookie with a strong rushing attack and quality receiving options. The defense should be able to remain good as well.

Whereas I have far less trust in Zac Taylor to sustain their current level of play. I’m not discounting the Bengals, just think the Steelers have definite paths to quickly bounce back IMO. Just saying I’d at least include them because you can’t ever underrate quality run franchises from bouncing back quickly.

 

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12 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

And the Cowboys had only 14 carries because they were in a shootout and thus Dak dropped 400 passing yards against their defense. A Bucs pass DVOA that is currently ranked 21st in the league.

The path of necessity and of least resistance thus comes in the form of an aerial assault against their defense. That wasn’t true of the 2000 Ravens defense. Teams weren’t killing them through the air because it was easier than banging in the trenches.

But I digress. The Cowboys attained an overall 3.3 ypc.  1. Yet Pollard, the more explosive runner, found success with a 4.7 YPC average. The sample size simply wasn’t great enough to challenge the efficiency of that defense.

2. Point is, the poster who quoted you listed that the 2000 Ravens defense faced 3 top 10 rushing offenses multiple times that season and then dominated in the playoffs. Yet the Bucs haven’t completed 1/3 of the season and haven’t faced, 3. to this point, legitimate rushing challenges that would have the potential to expose some of their efficiency numbers.

4. I’m not claiming it’s not an incredibly formidable attack, simply that it’s CERTAINLY an overreaction to compare it to the Ravens run defense (which I’m sure the Steelers also had some incredible run defenses in the 70s that I’m not knowledgeable of and I know the Eagles had a dominant run defense with Reggie White) and say it’s probably the GOAT run defense.

 

6 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

You mentioning Pollard's 4.7ypc (over 3 rushes) was an implication that TB's run D isn't as great as it may seem. It was lame, just own it. There are better arguments to make - weak run offenses faced aside from Dallas, their pass D being so bad that teams just default to throwing vs. them, etc.

Look, Thurman Thomas averaged 8ypc against the vaunted 2000 Ravens D in this game: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200009170mia.htm . Explosive!

I’m not going to own something that wasn’t the case. I said he “found success” and that “it wasn’t enough of a sample size to challenge their defensive efficiency.”

The implication isn’t that their run defense isn’t great, the implication is that they haven’t been tested enough to call it historic. Had you read the 3rd and 4th emboldened portions that I highlight above, you would’ve known that I’m not claiming the defense isn’t as great as it seems, only that it’s early in the season and perhaps not as historic as it seems… because it hasn’t been appropriately challenged.

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26 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

 

I’m not going to own something that wasn’t the case. I said he “found success” and that “it wasn’t enough of a sample size to challenge their defensive efficiency.”

The implication isn’t that their run defense isn’t great, the implication is that they haven’t been tested enough to call it historic. Had you read the 3rd and 4th emboldened portions that I highlight above, you would’ve known that I’m not claiming the defense isn’t as great as it seems, only that it’s early in the season and perhaps not as historic as it seems… because it hasn’t been appropriately challenged.

When the discussion is about a team's run D and you mention how an opposing runner got 4.7ypc, you're absolutely making a comment on that team's run D. You thought it was a point worth making, and it wasn't. Pollard's 4.7ypc on 3 rushes in the game means absolutely nothing. It was an irrelevant point.

Edited by childofpudding
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16 hours ago, Apparition said:

Davis Mills is an NFL starter.

Ja'Marr Chase is the best WR since Randy Moss

 

not an overreaction: the Bucs might have the best run defense in NFL history.

Not disagreeing with the Bucs run defense being great but when the pass defense is that bad why run?

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