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Why are the Dolphins so bad?


Apparition

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There’s a couple reason for the defenses regression this year. First one and biggest reason I believe is the fact that the offense can’t put together drive consistently enough to give the defense time to rest. We constantly go 3 and out or maybe we get one first down but we can’t string together drives at the moment. I mean this sound dumb but even in the bills game the defense actually played decent for a good amount of the game but Buffalo scored so much because their offense got so many opportunities because we kept punting the ball away. Also our ILB group is lacking, I feel that’s a group that people don’t realize how important it really is. Having a leader who’s smart and able to read the play before they snap the ball makes a huge difference. Also Raekwon Davis got hurt week one and he was out starting NT who played really well last year, that’s another important position, espescially in a 3-4

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12 hours ago, Forge said:

It's not as bad as it seems, I think. Middle of the pack in dvoa (and on the right side of 0), middle of the pack in yards per play. Getting some takeaways. Middle of the pack in red zone td conversions. 

They are getting killed on third / fourth down conversion, which you would hope would regress some and their offense can't keep the ball (bottom three entering today in TOP). 

Exactly. Miami is going to win a lot of games. Quite a few of them will be by big margin, as the point differential naturally restores to Crowd level. Right now it is in Crap territory. That is bizarre because this is not a Crap team or roster.

2021 always set up as a regression season for the Dolphins. You have to grasp the overwhelming likelihood of that, after jumping from 5 wins in 2019 to 10 in 2020. Teams that shift 3+ games in the win column will bounce in the other direction nearly 75% of the time. When I bet sports in Las Vegas for 24 years everyone understood basics like regression. It would be the theme all over town. I remember when Dallas went from 6 wins in 2002 to 10 wins in Parcells' first season of 2003. Immediately after that 2003 season my friend Larry couldn't stop talking about how much money he was going to make betting against Dallas in 2004, that it was a guaranteed regression season but the public would see it the other way. In particular Larry planned to wager huge on Dallas under the season win total.

Larry was tragically murdered that spring. I won't go into details. It is still unsolved, as far as I know. Dallas indeed collapsed in 2004, from 10 wins back to 6. I think about Larry every time this scenario comes up. He would laugh about how the public would always project that upstart team to keep going up, up and away. No different now.

I detailed on Finheaven after 2020 that 2021 set up as a regression season. I specifically mentioned that the turnover margin was unsustainable and the third down defense was unsustainable. Then all the subjective/personnel goofs lined up to tell me why it would be different this time. The fans obsessed with personnel never seem to understand that generalities overwhelm specifics. That 70-75% holds up decade after decade even though spotlight on personnel alone would prefer it on the other way greater than 50%. "Raekwon Davis is a budding star. He'll make the Pro Bowl next season." That type of thing.

The Dolphins have a bully defense. That's one of the reasons they are exposed by top notch quarterbacks but feast on weaker ones. Brady found tight windows yesterday that would have equated to incompletions or interceptions against a different team. Lots of weaker quarterbacks on the remaining schedule. Tua has been a disappointment but once he's back the 24+ points he'll produce will be plenty in the majority of games against terrorized quarterbacks. The offense was designed for Tua but we saw it for only one game.

Did somebody in this thread actually attribute Miami's decline to losing Fitzpatrick? It read as a serious attempt. Yeah, that's the death knell to any franchise, losing a quarterback with a career 40% win rate. Sounds like somebody who you could lie to dozens of times per day and they'd never figure it out. 

 

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4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Passing up Herbert for Tua has to hurt, right?

Hindsight and all that, and many predicted Herbert would bust, but this is a stinger. 

I was never a Tua fan, he just seemed like a low ceiling player.   He isn't very talented and gets injured easily. 

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5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Also LOL at the fact they gave up the 10th pick (Devonta Smith) and their 2022 1st to move up for Waddle. 

They gave up the 12th pick. We traded back up to 10 with one of our thirds. Point still stands though that trade was just not good as it stands now.

As for Miami... they were just incredibly overrated imo. They beat a lot of bad teams last year and still missed the playoffs. Good teams have difference makers. Who is Miami's impact players? When they need a play on offense/defense who can they turn to and expect the tides to turn? They are playing with a backup QB, but the Tua worries are valid imo. Him clearly being very fragile aside, he has looked mediocre at best when on the field and I just don't see anything to get me excited about him. He just looks like a game manager.

They could have easily lost to the Pats week one and be winless currently. I don't think they remain a bottom 5 team, but I think it is clear they aren't a playoff team as well.

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Could be 0-5 without the NE fumble, could be 2-3 if the refs had called that PI in the end zone vs Raiders. That's how it goes in the NFL, razor-thin margins. 

Lots of draft picks the past few years especially on the o-line but few of them are playing well. This is ummmmm....not ideal. I'm quite bummed at the busts. A 1st-rd DB in his 2nd year just can't be on the inactive list for every game. A 1st-rd LT can't play worse in his 2nd year than he did as a clueless rookie. It's stunning. 

Defense played so well last year on 3rd down but this year seems like the other team always selects that perfect 3rd-down play. Like, DC's studied film in the offseason and figured it out. Demoralizing when three 3rd-down conversions happen *on the same drive* like last week vs the Bucs. 

It's mind-blowing to think the Fins now have a 'must-win' game coming up against an opponent that's lost 20 games in a row. 

 

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